Mr. Crumbs Leans for Monday 5/18/09

[cocknocker]

I have been following the A's for a couple of years, and this particular year they are horrid to be sure. But despite that, this is actually a winnable game for them. I am gonna back the kid Gallagher and see if he can cash the ticket. The A's bats were in order yesterday against the Tigers, but they just were overmatched in that game. Niemann hasn't done enough on the big league level to warrant a -150 price tag. The A's are coming into town off of an embarrassing sweep

A's+120 or more

Lackey's gonna return in this game. It will not be a free chicken dinner. Washburn with even money at home? Give me the M's and the home crowd edge in a slugfest won by the M's 7-5.

Mariners-105
Mariners/Angels over 8.5

Now I know for a cat that Andy Pettitte is not worth the price tag he got for this game. I have to take the Twinkies in this matchup and hope that they bust out the whoppin' sticks for this game against the wiley veteran with a 80 somethin' fastball

Twinkies+145 or more


Florida/Arizona under 8 -125 Haren's pitching, Nolasco is due a correction



The public is lining up for free breakfast at the shelter this morning, so I will fade them and hope to eat top sirloin and garic rice with my eggs. No doubt about being contrarian on this one, as the public is backing the over to the tune of 84%. I will jump on the side of the 16% which of course is the sharp money. I would not take the 1st half under however.. I think that there will be 8 runs in this game and Toronto looses 5-3 on a saftey when Richmond accidently steps over the end-zone line while scrambling for his life.

Pale Hose/Blue Birds under 9.5 +100 Crumbs Play-O-The-Day
Pale Hose+150 Because it looks on paper like they have no chance


Will also do a small + money parlay with

Pale Hose+150/Pale Hose and Blue Birds under 9.5 +100

[khaliagent]

CK

I would stay away from the twins pick ck.
Perkins has a 5.00era career against the yanks and petite averages 1.2 strikeouts per game vs. The twinkies and they only hit .263 off him lifetime.
Perkins gets smacked by yanks (.364 ba)

if anything i would touch the -1.5 for yanks and i may depending on the probabilty.

Also i would stay away from the a's and gallagher.
- the a's have never seen niemann and they are not the hitting lineup that performs well in that situation.

[khaliagent]

. Niemann hasn't done enough on the big league level to warrant a -150 price tag.

where did you see -150?
I got the line from pinnacle at -136

[xxdjstriderxx]

pale hoseeeeee in the am. good writeups ck, thanks

im feelin that As pick

[Jimbo42]

What up!

Booked:
St. Louis -125
St. Louis -1.5 +160

Also played small:
White Sox +145

GL

[RoagBettor]

Hard to go against Milwaukee and Toronto today.

Jimbo, why do you like St. Louis RL? I know you wouldn't bet it if you didn't think it had a chance, but the Brewers bats are scorching and the Cards bats are ice cold.

[chucksmith]

ARIZONA -134

Just saw where ARI has pushed Garland back and will throw Haren today vs Nolasco. Nolasco has been awful after a couple of strong starts at the beginning of the year. Haren has been a hard luck pitcher getting no run support and I have been looking for a spot to play him all year. The Snakes bats will do enough to continue the 1 game streak they started in Atlanta. I am going to lay more vig than I prefer to (-134) but this is a gut play for me and I would be kicking myself all day if I didnt grab it.

I think I will end up beating the closing #, as it has moved up from -130.

[cocknocker]

Bad movement with the Cards today, Jimbo which of course means that they will cover, lol!

I agree that the Pale Hose are the call in the AM. I will make that play and also follow it up with the RRL +210. It's high time that the Pales get a road win. They have been stinking up the joint despite oodles of talent on this team.

The line for Tampa Bay started at -150 at Pinnacle and despite the fact that 85% of bettor are on their side, the line went from an opening of -150 to as low as -136. Te movement is in my favor by playing the A's who are controlling the money with a meager 15% on them.

Andy Pettitte is NOT a -150 or more pitcher even if he has good numbers against the Twins. The Yanks have had three straight walk off wins against the Twins this series. That tells me that they are leading in all of the games until the final inning. I believe the Twins get far enough ahead in this game to not have that happen again. Gotta play a team that has lost three in a row to the same team. It's the law of averages. New York will burn your money if you play them when they are expected to win. Most over-valued team in MLB

[cocknocker]

The M's however, have not returned to the board since news of Lackey getting the start surfaced. Whatever the line is I am taking the M's in this game simply because I know that Lackey will be over-valued despite this being for all intents and purposes his first start off the farm (he got dq'd in his actual first game after only 2 pitches). Washburn can get it donein this game, but beware folks. The Angels are the sleeping giant in the west, and they are starting to get healthy now.

[peterpan19]

ck
dont you think that the over 9.5 in the TOR-CSW game looks good too..both pitchers struggled as of late...Tor bats are hot and the White Sox bats ...well...they will get hot today here and win it in a slugfest...

early pick for me CSW and Over 9.5

GL

[chucksmith]

The M's however, have not returned to the board since news of Lackey getting the start surfaced. Whatever the line is I am taking the M's in this game simply because I know that Lackey will be over-valued despite this being for all intents and purposes his first start off the farm (he got dq'd in his actual first game after only 2 pitches). Washburn can get it donein this game, but beware folks. The Angels are the sleeping giant in the west, and they are starting to get healthy now.

Very much agree here. The public is going to fall in love with Texas after their recent hot streak and I am going to be right there to fade away. There is no way their SP holds up and their pen will begin to wear down now that everyone has been moved up a slot after their closer Francisco went on the DL.

With Santana, Lackey, Guererro all on the way back, the Angels will have the lead back in the AL West by the All Star break. Circle the next Tex/LAA series, I will go ahead and predict LA returns the favor with a sweep.

[t-bone]

The A's are a sharp play, nice find CK

[showtime2000]

Washington will play their 4th game in 3 days and sending a pitcher to the mound with 1 MLB game. If Detwiller gets into trouble early the Washington pen is very tired having to come in relief in all 4 games against Philadelphia. Washington has never faced Ohlendorf. I think advantage goes to Pittsburgh.

[cocknocker]

As game time is approaching, I am going to play the Pale Hose/Blue Birds under 9.5. Richmond is alright, but the Pale Hose have the lowest run production per game in the AL. So maybe the Blue Birds blow them out and they only score 1-2 runs.

The Pale Hose have been alternating over/under for 5 games straight following a 4 game under streak with one sandwiched in between. It's the bet that was taken the least for this game, so with it being an early game I think that it is a good way to sart things off! fade the public. 84% is awhole lot of early money for the books to pick up off the public...


Pale Hose/Blue Birds under 9.5 +100 Crumbs Play-O-The-Day

[IfDntmk$itDntmkc]

I am rolling with you CK. Last week we started off good on Monday. Lets do it again. By the way " You have pickles in your ears Chuck" if you think the Red Shoed Rangers will fade by the All Star break.

As long as the AL MVP, "yes i said it," Ian Kinsler stays healthy and in the lineup the Rangers will be battling it out with the Angels who struggle to score runs and have gapping holes in the bullpen. Especially with no K-Rod.

I am loving my + 1125 odds for the Rangers to win the AL West.

Keep in mind the Rangers have gone to the playoffs 3 times in their history, what was the primary color in their uniforms? Answer "RED"!!!!!

2009- Primary Color RED.

Go Red Shoed Rangers!!!!

[cocknocker]

ck
dont you think that the over 9.5 in the TOR-CSW game looks good too..both pitchers struggled as of late...Tor bats are hot and the White Sox bats ...well...they will get hot today here and win it in a slugfest...

early pick for me CSW and Over 9.5

GL

Ah, wow! I didn't see your entry. But I disagree with the over as it is too public of a play for me to take. When 84% of bettors see the same thing, the line should have gone up to 10. But it didn't move. And then the price of taking the over 9.5 went up to -120 on most books. The line was inflated to begin with. Scott Richmond is 4-1 under at home with a totals line of 8.5 or more. I can't be the one to put a stop to that streak

[cocknocker]

Dye (suspension) and Quentin out with heel problem can't hurt the cause for the under either. The Pales are only hitting .251 with them in the lineup anyway.

[chucksmith]

I am rolling with you CK. Last week we started off good on Monday. Lets do it again. By the way " You have pickles in your ears Chuck" if you think the Red Shoed Rangers will fade by the All Star break.

As long as the AL MVP, "yes i said it," Ian Kinsler stays healthy and in the lineup the Rangers will be battling it out with the Angels who struggle to score runs and have gapping holes in the bullpen. Especially with no K-Rod.

I am loving my + 1125 odds for the Rangers to win the AL West.

Keep in mind the Rangers have gone to the playoffs 3 times in their history, what was the primary color in their uniforms? Answer "RED"!!!!!

2009- Primary Color RED.

Go Red Shoed Rangers!!!!

I am the biggest Josh Hamilton fan around but I dont see their pitching holding up in the hot Texas sun all summer.

Interesting angle about the jersey color.

GL with your prop bet tho. That would be a helluva payout.

[peterpan19]

Dye (suspension) and Quentin out with heel problem can't hurt the cause for the under either. The Pales are only hitting .251 with them in the lineup anyway.

...yeah true...but I think the White Sox should score 3-4 runs against Richmond and the Blus Jays should do the same against Richard too...and since we wont see a pitchers duel here today...I just have to go with the Over...White Sox just have to break out of the slump sooner or later...so why not here today...when noone expects them to win anyway...ok 86% are on the over but 97% are on the ML and even 74% are on the RL...the books just have to give one to the public here early on and I think they can make more money when the White Sox win...

anyway

GL

[peterpan19]

I am the biggest Josh Hamilton fan around but I dont see their pitching holding up in the hot Texas sun all summer.

Interesting angle about the jersey color.

GL with your prop bet tho. That would be a helluva payout.

I think there was even a study about team colors...and teams with red were the most sucessfull ones...let alone my Arizona Cardinals, but hey they did it last year...so RED = WINNER = TRUE ...well we will see...but all teams have the same problems in Texas and as long as they can hit well, hell they have a chance...

[chucksmith]

ARIZONA -134

Just saw where ARI has pushed Garland back and will throw Haren today vs Nolasco. Nolasco has been awful after a couple of strong starts at the beginning of the year. Haren has been a hard luck pitcher getting no run support and I have been looking for a spot to play him all year. The Snakes bats will do enough to continue the 1 game streak they started in Atlanta. I am going to lay more vig than I prefer to (-134) but this is a gut play for me and I would be kicking myself all day if I didnt grab it.

I think I will end up beating the closing #, as it has moved up from -130.

I was wrong. Should of waited on this one. Down to -122 at 5 Dimes. Oh well, I still feel very confident it's a winner so I wont worry too much about the bad price tag I got.

[cocknocker]

3-4 runs apiece would create an under, peterpan, lol! But good luck to you anyway.

[chucksmith]

Ah, wow! I didn't see your entry. But I disagree with the over as it is too public of a play for me to take. When 84% of bettors see the same thing, the line should have gone up to 10. But it didn't move. And then the price of taking the over 9.5 went up to -120 on most books. The line was inflated to begin with. Scott Richmond is 4-1 under at home with a totals line of 8.5 or more. I can't be the one to put a stop to that streak

Total just moved to 10 at 5 Dimes

[peterpan19]

3-4 runs apiece would create an under, peterpan, lol! But good luck to you anyway.

thats for the starters only...and since i dont believe we will see either one long today...add in 4 runs given up by the bullpens...and the game goes over...

but hell...I am ice cold right now...just look at the baseball contest right now...so you should be fine ...and the game ends something like 3-1 for the Blue Jays or something like that...

just 90 min until first pitch... at least we have an early baseball match today and hopefully some offense...I can only watch one hour...so they better score some runs early on...

GL

[SlicWilly3]

Early Leans for Monday:

Toronto -1 1/2 +120 Both pitchers have been garbage lately....But Toronto is the better team, and has a better bullpen to boot. I'm looking for a nice high run scoring Toronto thrashing.

CWS/Tor OVER 9 1/2 -115 See above

Pitt -108 Ohlendor has been money and is facing the Nats and a pitcher making his debut this yr

Arizona -1 1/2 +135 Haren gets the start in place of Garland....And Florida is cold

LA Dodgers -1 1/2 +145 Wolf going against a garbage Mets pitcher....LA is rested too with 3 os their normal starters getting the day off today (Sunday)

TB/Oak OVER 9 1/2 +105 2 Bums on the mound-Both with high whips last 3 starts as well.

LA/Seattle UNDER "whatever" 1st 5 innings only.....Both bullpens are garbage, both starters pitching GREAT of late.

Good luck everybody

[cocknocker]

You did the right thing chucksmith. Nolasco is to be faded until he wins one. And then you take him in his next two once the correction is made. The movement is a horror movie though. There is late money being poured in on Florida and the line is down to -118 on Skybook.

Dye is gonna play and is appealing his suspension.

[cocknocker]

Total just moved to 10 at 5 Dimes

It's too late. The books already got everyone's money by now. 10 runs is really way too many for Richmond n a home game, and a play for the under is the way to go

[chucksmith]

You did the right thing chucksmith. Nolasco is to be faded until he wins one. And then you take him in his next two once the correction is made. The movement is a horror movie though. There is late money being poured in on Florida and the line is down to -118 on Skybook.

Dye is gonna play and is appealing his suspension.

Wow, dropping like a lead balloon. I am going to trust my instincts on this one bc I have been looking for a spot to play Haren.

Wanted action early so I am rolling with under in the CWS/Tor game as a small play. GL.

[napalmrain]

Hi guys,
Been reading and following you for a while now and it's time for me to contribute something.
For today I'm playing European Basketball. ACB Liga in Spain.

DKV Joventut vs Real Madrid
Pick: Under 157 @ -110

[peterpan19]

now that is really something...ARZ at -110 with Haren pitching ? against a bad FLorida team...oh boy that game looks too good to be true...

[xmrblueduckyx]

I'm going to go with you on this one CK.
Too much of the public on BJ's,(74%) BJ's RL,(96%) and the over. (80%)

Let's go SOX! Take some early money here.
WSOX win 7-1

Also adding small:
NO score 1st inning (+105)
UNDER 5.5 Runs first 5 innings (-105)

[D.J.]

Should a guy making his first start really be favored over a guy with a sub 4 ERA? Ohlendorf has had his struggles on the road, but the Nationals are the worst team in baseball in my mind. It isn't like they are loaded on the mound and logic leads me to believe if this kid was good, he would have been in the bigs already. Thoughts anyone?

[michiganstatefan]

Dye (suspension) and Quentin out with heel problem can't hurt the cause for the under either. The Pales are only hitting .251 with them in the lineup anyway.

Dont you think with dye and quentin being gone the right pick here is the jays on victoria day?

[cocknocker]

There's a fellow that Dexter was talking about that is supposed to be lights out when he hits the bigs. I wonder if it's this guy...But it's a good thing to back teams that bring hot unknowns down from the minors.

[cocknocker]

Dont you think with dye and quentin being gone the right pick here is the jays on victoria day?

I never base my plays upon injuries, but if it helps my cause, then why not? Dye is actually playing while appealing his suspension. He took Cecil yard in this same series so who knows? Quentin wasn't doing shit when he was healthy.