Mr. Crumbs Leans for Monday 5/11/09

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  • chucksmith
    SBR Sharp
    • 11-06-08
    • 412

    #71
    Originally posted by Dexter
    monday-

    dodgers +1.5/-130 (2x) - Autobet with the total at 7.5 or <
    giants -150 - going to fade cabrera who has a whip in his last 3 of 2.20
    indians - 130 - going to fade floyd who has a whip in his last 3 of 2.22

    cavs -10 (3x)



    *posted the below late last night to reduce my daily auto plays

    AutoBet Adjustments to reduce my daily plays:

    -i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline.

    - i will play 2x or more on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

    -i will play 3x or more against any pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.80 or > in his last 3 starts - as long as the opposing team is -150 or < on the ML and the opposing pitcher has a WHIP of 1.00 or < in his last 3 starts.

    -i will play 2x or more on the over in any game where both pitchers have a WHIP of 1.80 or > in the last 3 starts.

    *so what im doing is cutting out autoplays on a guy who has a whip of 1 or < in his last 3, or against a guy with a whip of 1.80 or > in his last 3. i will still likely make plays on these games, just not autobets as it caused too many plays for my style even though im 100% behind the logic
    saw you post about the dodgers last night but they dont play do they?
    Comment
    • Dexter
      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
      • 12-24-08
      • 25829

      #72
      lol...i keep doing that cause of lowe...

      braves is the play...thx chuck
      Comment
      • chucksmith
        SBR Sharp
        • 11-06-08
        • 412

        #73
        we are happy to have him in ATL
        Comment
        • Dexter
          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
          • 12-24-08
          • 25829

          #74
          Originally posted by danrman
          i got some inside info folks that cleve is a really good play for tomorrow.. i suggest playing it if the pitching matchup stays the same
          i know you've mentioned "inside info" plays in the past. do you have a record of how these plays have done when you posted?

          i played the indians already myself, but if this hit at a high clip - i may throw down just as i do with mr heavy's big plays
          Comment
          • peterpan19
            Restricted User
            • 11-02-08
            • 3377

            #75
            david + johan....
            Comment
            • Dexter
              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
              • 12-24-08
              • 25829

              #76
              lol...machine is calling a -200 fav a "millenium lock"

              what a joke....
              Comment
              • cocknocker
                Restricted User
                • 11-06-08
                • 8001

                #77
                Forgive him Dexter, for he know not what he do....
                Comment
                • laxdjock
                  SBR MVP
                  • 09-15-07
                  • 4074

                  #78
                  With him on it...it is like having DAC on my side......
                  Comment
                  • chucksmith
                    SBR Sharp
                    • 11-06-08
                    • 412

                    #79
                    Originally posted by Dexter
                    this kind of talk is what makes you so special dan. lol

                    disclose your info with us...

                    are you thinking about going tout on us with this kinda talk?
                    They havent even announced a starter for CWS yet have they? Hard for me to believe it could be a lock at this point with no SP or line announced.
                    Comment
                    • Dexter
                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                      • 12-24-08
                      • 25829

                      #80
                      Originally posted by chucksmith
                      They havent even announced a starter for CWS yet have they? Hard for me to believe it could be a lock at this point with no SP or line announced.
                      i think he meant the indians for tonight....
                      Comment
                      • chucksmith
                        SBR Sharp
                        • 11-06-08
                        • 412

                        #81
                        i hope so bc i am on the tribe myself
                        Comment
                        • laxdjock
                          SBR MVP
                          • 09-15-07
                          • 4074

                          #82
                          CLE is looking good thus far!

                          NYM needs to step it up.....just not getting it done with the bats.
                          Comment
                          • Jimbo42
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-04-09
                            • 2076

                            #83
                            Booked:

                            Arizona -127 (bad spot here for Cincy)

                            GL
                            Comment
                            • cohen59
                              SBR Sharp
                              • 05-04-09
                              • 321

                              #84
                              Bullpen in lets go braves!!!
                              Comment
                              • Dexter
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 12-24-08
                                • 25829

                                #85
                                johan out - braves score 4
                                Comment
                                • jellobiafra
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 03-08-09
                                  • 6291

                                  #86
                                  Wow. Poor guy. That's what tilt gets you. It's charma.
                                  Comment
                                  • ram1502
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 12-26-08
                                    • 822

                                    #87
                                    some clutch hitting by the braves. I still don't know why diaz isn't the everyday left fielder for the braves. Garrett Anderson is terrible.
                                    Comment
                                    • laxdjock
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 09-15-07
                                      • 4074

                                      #88
                                      The NYM fielding is killing them.

                                      Good call CK.
                                      Comment
                                      • Dexter
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 12-24-08
                                        • 25829

                                        #89
                                        [quote=Dexter;1834296]
                                        AutoBet Adjustments to reduce my daily plays:


                                        1) i will play on any underdog getting 1.5 runs and who is a dog or favored by no more then -110 on the moneyline.

                                        2) i will play 2x or more on an underdog at +1.5 on the runline when the game total is 7.5 or less at any point during the day. However, i will not lay more then -150.

                                        3) i will play 3x or more against any pitcher who has a WHIP of 1.80 or > in his last 3 starts - as long as the opposing team is -150 or < on the ML and the opposing pitcher has a WHIP of 1.00 or < in his last 3 starts.

                                        4) i will play 2x or more on the over in any game where both pitchers have a WHIP of 1.80 or > in the last 3 starts.


                                        added autobet # 5:

                                        5) i will play 2x or more on the under when both pitchers have a whip of 1.00 or < in their last 3 starts
                                        Comment
                                        • thegenix
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 11-14-08
                                          • 339

                                          #90
                                          Originally posted by cocknocker
                                          Then I look up what the favored pitchers record is in the last 10 games where he is -150 or more and then I look up the dog pitchers' record in games as a +130 or more dog for the same amount of games at the number.
                                          Where do you get this info?
                                          Comment
                                          • chucksmith
                                            SBR Sharp
                                            • 11-06-08
                                            • 412

                                            #91
                                            Originally posted by ram1502
                                            some clutch hitting by the braves. I still don't know why diaz isn't the everyday left fielder for the braves. Garrett Anderson is terrible.
                                            He kills LHP but is mediocre aganist righties and is a liability in the OF.
                                            Comment
                                            • chucksmith
                                              SBR Sharp
                                              • 11-06-08
                                              • 412

                                              #92
                                              Originally posted by thegenix
                                              Where do you get this info?
                                              www.thewinningedge.com
                                              Comment
                                              • jellobiafra
                                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                                • 03-08-09
                                                • 6291

                                                #93
                                                Looking at games tomorrow. I'm a Braves fan and I think the world of this kid.... but I didn't even realize the kind of numbers JJ is putting up so far this season. I might be biased, is it just Braves fans that see a potential ace in the making with Jurjjens? He's only 23 I think. Gotta be the most un-talked young stud pitcher in the game. I hear about Kershaw and Sherzer and Hamels.... Nobody talks about Jurjjens. All he's done is lead the team in wins as a rookie with an ERA well under 4. And he's backing that up with a 2.01 ERA and 1.19 WHIP so far this year.

                                                Does anybody else realize how good this kid is?
                                                Comment
                                                • ram1502
                                                  SBR Wise Guy
                                                  • 12-26-08
                                                  • 822

                                                  #94
                                                  Originally posted by chucksmith
                                                  He kills LHP but is mediocre aganist righties and is a liability in the OF.
                                                  And Garrett Anderson isn't bro? He is too old and slow.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • chucksmith
                                                    SBR Sharp
                                                    • 11-06-08
                                                    • 412

                                                    #95
                                                    He has aged, yes, and he is not a particularly viable option either, but over the course of his career he has been considered one of the best defensive LFs in the game.

                                                    They make a decent platoon and are nice major league hitters for Cox to have available for pinc hit duty.

                                                    It has been years since ATL had a stud in LF
                                                    Comment
                                                    • Dexter
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 12-24-08
                                                      • 25829

                                                      #96
                                                      win 1 cavs ticket at 9.5 from yesterday, pushed on the other (after ck heavy call today) on the other..

                                                      the cavs are winning it all - defense is so good.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Dexter
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 12-24-08
                                                        • 25829

                                                        #97
                                                        after a 3-9 start to the nba playoffs, im 1 game away to 500 again. (3x per game on all - so still some vig to makeup)

                                                        11-12-1

                                                        Tue

                                                        magic +2 (3x)
                                                        Comment
                                                        • laxdjock
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 09-15-07
                                                          • 4074

                                                          #98
                                                          I really like the ORL play too.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • ASH0479
                                                            SBR Sharp
                                                            • 02-24-09
                                                            • 491

                                                            #99
                                                            .....

                                                            CK is the MAN!!

                                                            Nothing else needs to be said.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ram1502
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 12-26-08
                                                              • 822

                                                              #100
                                                              Kotchman is swingin a helluva bat right now. One more here in the top of the 9th would be some nice icing on the cake.
                                                              Comment
                                                              • Vonnegut
                                                                SBR MVP
                                                                • 01-08-09
                                                                • 1499

                                                                #101
                                                                Nice calls Crumb aka ck....
                                                                Comment
                                                                • ebbearsfb1
                                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                                  • 12-07-08
                                                                  • 18815

                                                                  #102
                                                                  anyone on the nationals tonight?
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • ram1502
                                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                                    • 12-26-08
                                                                    • 822

                                                                    #103
                                                                    Wow what a goal by the Caps in overtime. I called it earlier...OT win for the Caps. Congrats all Caps backers.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • showtime2000
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 11-09-08
                                                                      • 1054

                                                                      #104
                                                                      Originally posted by showtime2000
                                                                      Puck play tonight,

                                                                      Washington +130 (dream matchup for NHL to have their 2 best players playing in a game 7)



                                                                      GLA
                                                                      Ah, yes, and Washington cashes the ticket!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • showtime2000
                                                                        SBR MVP
                                                                        • 11-09-08
                                                                        • 1054

                                                                        #105
                                                                        Way to go ram1502!
                                                                        Comment
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