MLB - Thursday, 7/7/16

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  • JJJ
    SBR MVP
    • 05-03-11
    • 2610

    #36
    L t your picks are losers bottom line...congrats though on beating the closing line
    Comment
    • No coincidences
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 01-18-10
      • 76300

      #37
      Originally posted by LT Profits
      I pointed out a few days ago that it instinctively seems to me that I am beating the closing line at about the same rate I did last year, which if true actually proves that the model is not broken. Beating closer is probably the most important dynamic when judging a model's success (or lack of).


      Sincerely,
      2008
      Comment
      • No coincidences
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 01-18-10
        • 76300

        #38
        Originally posted by Redscot
        LT's model is + imo, I do think that it is important to stay at the vanguard of all the new analytics being offered though and not sit back and rest on one's laurels. The bad luck this year does not eliminate the possibility that there was some good luck last year (one of the best single season mlb's I have seen at great volume). I also think that sports have many intangibles that are not perfectly clean and should be taken into account after the model gives you a baseline for the game. Obviously with MLB, the volume of games and teams makes it a very difficult grind to account for all the ebbs and flows going on on every particular team on a daily basis.

        That being said I have 1000 betpoints up at even money that LT finishes the season in the black, any takers?

        As always BOL LT, enjoy your work and your humility.
        You need to watch the games, too. Period.
        Comment
        • RavensFan2k3
          SBR Posting Legend
          • 08-18-12
          • 17378

          #39
          Originally posted by funnyb25
          Good point...the players are broken
          Comment
          • funnyb25
            BARRELED IN @ SBR!
            • 07-09-09
            • 39663

            #40
            Originally posted by No coincidences
            You need to watch the games, too. Period.
            It's almost like he refuses to watch games to get better. It's strange
            Comment
            • LT Profits
              SBR Aristocracy
              • 10-27-06
              • 90963

              #41
              Originally posted by No coincidences


              Sincerely,
              2008
              The arguments we had last year centered around games where I absolutely CRUSHED the closing line where you pointed out those plays had a losing record. And they may very well may have.

              But that is not what I am talking about here, I am saying it is important to beat the closing line a high percentage of the time overall, without regard to by how much you beat it by. If you only look at games last year where I beat the closing lines by "normal" amounts and eliminate the games where I beat closer by 40 points +, I was probably over +100 units.
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #42
                I'll maintain you are better off NOT watching the games so you have no biases. I know it is hard for me to resist being a bit bias in football and basketball based on what I see on TV.
                Comment
                • 44 Mag
                  BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                  • 10-14-13
                  • 34490

                  #43
                  Originally posted by LT Profits
                  I'll maintain you are better off NOT watching the games so you have no biases. I know it is hard for me to resist being a bit bias in football and basketball based on what I see on TV.
                  I agree 100%. I do not watch these games, I would go nuts. LOL. I must admit, I do watch some NFL games, having the package, but it casts no bias on games I already took. MLB & NBA, way too many games.
                  Comment
                  • funnyb25
                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                    • 07-09-09
                    • 39663

                    #44
                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                    I'll maintain you are better off NOT watching the games so you have no biases. I know it is hard for me to resist being a bit bias in football and basketball based on what I see on TV.
                    Is this why college football and basketball were down 50 units last season?
                    Comment
                    • Redscot
                      SBR MVP
                      • 05-16-11
                      • 2571

                      #45
                      Originally posted by LT Profits
                      I'll maintain you are better off NOT watching the games so you have no biases. I know it is hard for me to resist being a bit bias in football and basketball based on what I see on TV.
                      I can agree to a degree. It is information overload! However, when you have your pulse on a team I think it does make a difference. Early in the year I watched the dynamic of Gio Gonzalez being force-fed Ramos instead of his caddy Lobaton and made some money there (just one example) there is NO model that is gonna pick that up. ML teams still employ scouts who are not analytic slaves because it just ain't that simple as a math equation. Don't get me wrong, I am as old school as it gets, and have been intimate with the game on many levels and have adapted to a more analytic based approach to the game myself. It is probably too much for one individual to try and stay on the pulse of every team, so a model is the best bet, but you would have to be a fool to not know that it has its benefits.
                      Comment
                      • Redscot
                        SBR MVP
                        • 05-16-11
                        • 2571

                        #46
                        Oh and...

                        That being said I have 1000 betpoints up at even money that LT finishes the season in the black, any takers?

                        **cricket** **cricket**


                        Comment
                        • JJJ
                          SBR MVP
                          • 05-03-11
                          • 2610

                          #47
                          lol really both were down 50 units ...I did not follow he won one year in baseball think it was 1994 why does SBR allow this guy to keep posting his picks?
                          Originally posted by funnyb25
                          Is this why college football and basketball were down 50 units last season?
                          Comment
                          • LT Profits
                            SBR Aristocracy
                            • 10-27-06
                            • 90963

                            #48
                            Originally posted by JJJ
                            lol really both were down 50 units ...I did not follow he won one year in baseball think it was 1994 why does SBR allow this guy to keep posting his picks?
                            No, was -50 combined this year in college only. Won in NBA and NHL, basically broke even in NFL (-0.95). Bottom line was +63 units over all sports over last completed seasons, so entered today +52 since start if last MLB season when you deduct the -11 YTD MLB.
                            Comment
                            • funnyb25
                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                              • 07-09-09
                              • 39663

                              #49
                              Originally posted by JJJ
                              lol really both were down 50 units ...I did not follow he won one year in baseball think it was 1994 why does SBR allow this guy to keep posting his picks?
                              No. College football and college hoops were down 50 units combined. Not each.
                              Comment
                              • HeeluvaGuy
                                SBR MVP
                                • 02-15-14
                                • 3449

                                #50
                                Originally posted by JJJ
                                lol really both were down 50 units ...I did not follow he won one year in baseball think it was 1994 why does SBR allow this guy to keep posting his picks?
                                Did someone say 1994?

                                Comment
                                • Pigpen
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 05-09-08
                                  • 2750

                                  #51
                                  Originally posted by Redscot
                                  Oh and...

                                  That being said I have 1000 betpoints up at even money that LT finishes the season in the black, any takers?

                                  **cricket** **cricket**




                                  How can you transfer 1000 points if you lose the bet?
                                  Comment
                                  • LT Profits
                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                    • 10-27-06
                                    • 90963

                                    #52
                                    Originally posted by JJJ
                                    lol really both were down 50 units ...I did not follow he won one year in baseball think it was 1994 why does SBR allow this guy to keep posting his picks?
                                    Um.....WHAT?
                                    Comment
                                    • funnyb25
                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                      • 07-09-09
                                      • 39663

                                      #53
                                      Originally posted by Pigpen
                                      How can you transfer 1000 points if you lose the bet?
                                      2 a day for 500 days...lock
                                      Comment
                                      • funnyb25
                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                        • 07-09-09
                                        • 39663

                                        #54
                                        How would you rate your 6 sports successes from best worst long term?
                                        Comment
                                        • Redscot
                                          SBR MVP
                                          • 05-16-11
                                          • 2571

                                          #55
                                          Originally posted by funnyb25
                                          2 a day for 500 days...lock
                                          hahah good point, but I am good for it.
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #56
                                            Originally posted by funnyb25
                                            How would you rate your 6 sports successes from best worst long term?
                                            Good question that I do not have an answer to because it seems winning sports have rotated year-to-year lately. Although MLB has to be #1 after last year, 93 units would make up for at least three losing MLB seasons.

                                            Ah the old glory days when I started my SBR career with something like 17 straight winning seasons (about three calendar years) before my first losing year, which I think was in MLB.
                                            Comment
                                            • RavensFan2k3
                                              SBR Posting Legend
                                              • 08-18-12
                                              • 17378

                                              #57
                                              I'm worried about my Twins bet
                                              Comment
                                              • mohye1980
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 01-25-14
                                                • 2363

                                                #58
                                                Lost profits- it's time for you to update the software in your model. Get that shit up to speed with 2016. This "system" is fukking broke man. Do something.
                                                Comment
                                                • JayDr3am
                                                  SBR Posting Legend
                                                  • 05-06-14
                                                  • 18260

                                                  #59
                                                  Originally posted by RavensFan2k3
                                                  I'm worried about my Twins bet
                                                  twins should cash.. gonzalez will let up atleast 5 or 6 runs
                                                  Comment
                                                  • No coincidences
                                                    SBR Aristocracy
                                                    • 01-18-10
                                                    • 76300

                                                    #60
                                                    Originally posted by Redscot
                                                    I can agree to a degree. It is information overload! However, when you have your pulse on a team I think it does make a difference. Early in the year I watched the dynamic of Gio Gonzalez being force-fed Ramos instead of his caddy Lobaton and made some money there (just one example) there is NO model that is gonna pick that up. ML teams still employ scouts who are not analytic slaves because it just ain't that simple as a math equation. Don't get me wrong, I am as old school as it gets, and have been intimate with the game on many levels and have adapted to a more analytic based approach to the game myself. It is probably too much for one individual to try and stay on the pulse of every team, so a model is the best bet, but you would have to be a fool to not know that it has its benefits.
                                                    This x 100000
                                                    Comment
                                                    • t-wizzle
                                                      BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                      • 12-18-09
                                                      • 38099

                                                      #61
                                                      Originally posted by No coincidences


                                                      Sincerely,
                                                      2008
                                                      This guy still trying to argue that getting good numbers isn't important? Lol.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • funnyb25
                                                        BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                        • 07-09-09
                                                        • 39663

                                                        #62
                                                        Model land has gone from bad to worse...yikes!
                                                        Comment
                                                        • jtoler
                                                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                          • 12-17-13
                                                          • 30967

                                                          #63
                                                          Lol at the juicer Colon.
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LT Profits
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-27-06
                                                            • 90963

                                                            #64
                                                            Originally posted by funnyb25
                                                            Model land has gone from bad to worse...yikes!
                                                            Whatchya mean? Ahead in all three games right now, although tenuously so.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • funnyb25
                                                              BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                              • 07-09-09
                                                              • 39663

                                                              #65
                                                              If nova goes 5 we win. Instead they force him into the 6th and gives up 2. Terrible
                                                              Comment
                                                              • The Giant
                                                                SBR Posting Legend
                                                                • 01-21-12
                                                                • 21480

                                                                #66
                                                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                                Whatchya mean? Ahead in all three games right now, although tenuously so.
                                                                Does your moderator status come with the ability to ban people?
                                                                Comment
                                                                • BaseballChaser
                                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                                  • 06-29-16
                                                                  • 388

                                                                  #67
                                                                  Gets quiet when he wins.

                                                                  Keep grinding away LT.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • funnyb25
                                                                    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                                                    • 07-09-09
                                                                    • 39663

                                                                    #68
                                                                    Great job today LT

                                                                    YTD: 251-268-13, -9.76
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • blackeyeshamus
                                                                      SBR Hall of Famer
                                                                      • 02-19-11
                                                                      • 6632

                                                                      #69
                                                                      Originally posted by BaseballChaser
                                                                      Gets quiet when he wins.

                                                                      Keep grinding away LT.
                                                                      This. Cheers. 🍀💎🎯😇💵
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • RavensFan2k3
                                                                        SBR Posting Legend
                                                                        • 08-18-12
                                                                        • 17378

                                                                        #70
                                                                        Originally posted by JayDr3am
                                                                        twins should cash.. gonzalez will let up atleast 5 or 6 runs
                                                                        This was great, really needed that
                                                                        Comment
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