MLB - Saturday, 7/2/16

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  • LT Profits
    SBR Aristocracy
    • 10-27-06
    • 90963

    #1
    MLB - Saturday, 7/2/16
    4 MLB Plays Saturday

    Twins -108 (5 Dimes)
    Tigers / Rays UNDER 8.5 -120 (Bookmaker)
    Royals / Phillies UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
    Yankees / Padres UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 236-253-10, -10.26
  • 44 Mag
    BARRELED IN @ SBR!
    • 10-14-13
    • 34490

    #2
    Originally posted by LT Profits
    4 MLB Plays Saturday

    Twins -108 (5 Dimes)
    Tigers / Rays UNDER 8.5 -120 (Bookmaker)
    Royals / Phillies UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
    Yankees / Padres UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)


    YTD: 236-253-10, -10.26
    Are you expecting Duffy to throw a shutout???
    Comment
    • LT Profits
      SBR Aristocracy
      • 10-27-06
      • 90963

      #3
      60%ers:

      St. Louis 61% (-156)
      Miami 72% (-257)
      Cubs 61% (-156)
      Boston 62% (-163)
      Washington 66% (-194)
      Oakland 61% (-156)
      Seattle 60% (-150)
      Dodgers 63% (-170)
      Comment
      • LT Profits
        SBR Aristocracy
        • 10-27-06
        • 90963

        #4
        Originally posted by 44 Mag
        Are you expecting Duffy to throw a shutout???
        Believe it or not, there is nothing wrong with Nola's velocity, it has been the same his last four starts as it has been all year. The problem is his sinker has been finding too much of the plate those last four starts, compared to getting a lot of called strikes while living on the corners before that. So it is not a physical issue. Here is a great read:

        The Change: What's Going On With Aaron Nola?

        And yes, Duffy grades out as the Kansas City ace at the current time.
        Comment
        • newbie64
          SBR Sharp
          • 06-08-14
          • 339

          #5
          20 runs in 12 IP vs AL sorry LT with all do respect i can't go under
          Comment
          • Nateboogy
            SBR High Roller
            • 03-13-14
            • 167

            #6
            Rays U8-105
            Phils U7.5 -110
            Yanks U7.5 -125

            These are what I have and can't buy runs. What do you think?
            Comment
            • unusialsusp5
              SBR MVP
              • 04-18-10
              • 4198

              #7
              Originally posted by newbie64
              20 runs in 12 IP vs AL sorry LT with all do respect i can't go under
              i would be more disturbed about the 32 hits in his last 13 innings. sure, he keeps his walks down but give me a bat so i can fatten my batting average must be the theme being sung in opposing dugouts.
              Comment
              • LT Profits
                SBR Aristocracy
                • 10-27-06
                • 90963

                #8
                Originally posted by Nateboogy
                Rays U8-105
                Phils U7.5 -110
                Yanks U7.5 -125

                These are what I have and can't buy runs. What do you think?
                Dang.

                Phils 7.5 -110 is still OK (-110 is max I would take there)
                Rays 8 I would want +100 or better
                Yanks I would want no worse than -120 on 7.5 or at least +105 on 7
                Comment
                • LT Profits
                  SBR Aristocracy
                  • 10-27-06
                  • 90963

                  #9
                  Originally posted by newbie64
                  20 runs in 12 IP vs AL sorry LT with all do respect i can't go under
                  That is meaningless because he allowed 16 runs in 6 innings vs. AL during current 4-game funk. Before he went bad, he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings vs. a great hitting Detroit team.

                  So league faced is not the issue, if he corrected his mechanics between starts and returns to form before last four starts, he should be fine. If not, AL or NL would not matter when sinker is right down the middle.
                  Comment
                  • Nateboogy
                    SBR High Roller
                    • 03-13-14
                    • 167

                    #10
                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                    Dang.

                    Phils 7.5 -110 is still OK (-110 is max I would take there)
                    Rays 8 I would want +100 or better
                    Yanks I would want no worse than -120 on 7.5 or at least +105 on 7
                    Alrighty. Thanks a lot. I took phils under. I'll watch the others and see what happens.
                    Comment
                    • newbie64
                      SBR Sharp
                      • 06-08-14
                      • 339

                      #11
                      Originally posted by LT Profits
                      That is meaningless because he allowed 16 runs in 6 innings vs. AL during current 4-game funk. Before he went bad, he allowed just 2 earned runs in 6 innings vs. a great inning Detroit team.

                      So league faced is not the issue, if he corrected his mechanics between starts and returns to form before last four starts, he should be fine. If not, AL or NL would not matter when sinker is right down the middle.
                      So you're telling me that 4-0 over in the last 4 interleague starts is meaningless
                      Comment
                      • PorkChop
                        SBR Hall of Famer
                        • 09-18-08
                        • 8193

                        #12
                        Thoughts on Angels +150?
                        Comment
                        • 44 Mag
                          BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                          • 10-14-13
                          • 34490

                          #13
                          Originally posted by newbie64
                          So you're telling me that 4-0 over in the last 4 interleague starts is meaningless
                          The guy would have gotten bombed no matter who he played. He could have pitched against his own team and got shelled.
                          Comment
                          • HeeluvaGuy
                            SBR MVP
                            • 02-15-14
                            • 3449

                            #14
                            LT - Have you ever tracked your model's overall performance on every play (totals and sides)? If so, could you share the results? Also, do you (or have you considered) using the model to mechanically make plays (as opposed to adding your own subjective analysis)? For example, make every play that is 10% off from the actual line?
                            Comment
                            • innovation
                              SBR Hall of Famer
                              • 01-27-12
                              • 6218

                              #15
                              Boston by a crooked #
                              Comment
                              • 44 Mag
                                BARRELED IN @ SBR!
                                • 10-14-13
                                • 34490

                                #16
                                Originally posted by innovation
                                Boston by a crooked #
                                Don't trust Bucholtz. Hey, save your money for Sunday's Red Sox game, they are bringing back Sean O'Sullivan to pitch, he of the 6.00+ ERA . he should give up 5-6 runs by the third inning.
                                Comment
                                • juicername
                                  SBR Hall of Famer
                                  • 10-14-15
                                  • 6906

                                  #17
                                  I'll never understand what you see in these Twins. Thinking about Rangers.
                                  Comment
                                  • eddycash
                                    SBR MVP
                                    • 11-06-13
                                    • 4527

                                    #18
                                    I guess I'm passing all plays since lines are bad now
                                    Comment
                                    • eddycash
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 11-06-13
                                      • 4527

                                      #19
                                      Don't like Padres under
                                      Comment
                                      • LT Profits
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-27-06
                                        • 90963

                                        #20
                                        Originally posted by newbie64
                                        So you're telling me that 4-0 over in the last 4 interleague starts is meaningless
                                        I am saying it is correctable. His velocity has not changed one bit, it is the location of his sinker that has been six inches off the corner (around middle of plate) his last four after he had been very precise before that for his whole professional career (including minors).
                                        Comment
                                        • LT Profits
                                          SBR Aristocracy
                                          • 10-27-06
                                          • 90963

                                          #21
                                          Originally posted by juicername
                                          I'll never understand what you see in these Twins. Thinking about Rangers.
                                          I have no idea how Texas has won so many games with such a horrible pitching staff outside of Hamels. Twins play is more of a play against Chi Chi.
                                          Comment
                                          • LT Profits
                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                            • 10-27-06
                                            • 90963

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by PorkChop
                                            Thoughts on Angels +150?
                                            See 60%ers in Post #3.
                                            Comment
                                            • eddycash
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 11-06-13
                                              • 4527

                                              #23
                                              Twins no good now at the current line right?
                                              Comment
                                              • LT Profits
                                                SBR Aristocracy
                                                • 10-27-06
                                                • 90963

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                I am saying it is correctable. His velocity has not changed one bit, it is the location of his sinker that has been six inches off the corner (around middle of plate) his last four after he had been very precise before that for his whole professional career (including minors).
                                                I should add that Nola's overall numbers are still good despite the last four disasters, which is the whole point of the play. He still has a 3.16 FIP, 2.99 xFIP and 2.1 WAR, his great first 12 starts still outweigh the last 4. It is pretty amazing that he is still fifth in the Major Leagues in xFIP right now.
                                                Comment
                                                • LT Profits
                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                  • 10-27-06
                                                  • 90963

                                                  #25
                                                  Originally posted by eddycash
                                                  Twins no good now at the current line right?
                                                  WOW, did not see line take off. No, only good up to -115ish. I get 56% (-127).
                                                  Comment
                                                  • homerbush
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 11-17-08
                                                    • 2317

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                    I have no idea how Texas has won so many games with such a horrible pitching staff outside of Hamels. Twins play is more of a play against Chi Chi.
                                                    My Rangers play is a play against Duffey.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • LT Profits
                                                      SBR Aristocracy
                                                      • 10-27-06
                                                      • 90963

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by homerbush
                                                      My Rangers play is a play against Duffey.
                                                      I am not saying he is a stud, but Duffey still grades out a lot better than Gonzalez. Model always likes guys with great K/BB ratios and Duffey has 57 strikeouts vs. 14 walks.
                                                      Comment
                                                      • LT Profits
                                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                                        • 10-27-06
                                                        • 90963

                                                        #28
                                                        In fact, if you are looking for a simplistic system without fully delving into modeling and sabermetrics, you could do a lot worse than simply focusing on guys that average at least 7 strikeouts per nine innings while maintaining a K/BB ratio of at least 3/1.

                                                        The 7-strikeout qualifier weeds out guys like Phil Hughes that are always going to have great K/BB ratios because they do not walk anyone but whose stuff is not really all that great.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • MMA_Oracle
                                                          SBR High Roller
                                                          • 07-14-15
                                                          • 170

                                                          #29
                                                          LT

                                                          i get that Nola's advanced stats grade him as a really good pitcher and that's why you're making plays on him, but what do you think is the cause of the disparity between his ERA and xfip. Forgive me if im not extremely knowledgeable of sabermetrics but I would think this disparity is caused by his high BABIP against (.328). Well, cant we look at Eickhoff's and Velasquez's BABIP againsts (.299 and .321, respectively) and just kinda assume that the Phillies are a bad defensive team and that high number wont normalize, therefore were stuck with an underperforming Nola? IDK if that makes sense at all, it does in my head. would love to get your take on it
                                                          Comment
                                                          • LT Profits
                                                            SBR Aristocracy
                                                            • 10-27-06
                                                            • 90963

                                                            #30
                                                            1 MLB Addition

                                                            5 MLB Plays Saturday

                                                            Twins -108 (5 Dimes)
                                                            Tigers / Rays UNDER 8.5 -120 (Bookmaker)
                                                            Royals / Phillies UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
                                                            Reds / Nationals UNDER 8.5 +100 (Heritage)
                                                            Yankees / Padres UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)
                                                            Comment
                                                            • stackz125
                                                              SBR Hall of Famer
                                                              • 01-03-16
                                                              • 6191

                                                              #31
                                                              San Fran -110
                                                              White sox -110
                                                              Indians +140

                                                              Good?
                                                              Comment
                                                              • jay89
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 08-04-13
                                                                • 671

                                                                #32
                                                                Tigers o2 ff -129
                                                                Padres o2 ff +105
                                                                Nats o2.5 ff -113
                                                                Royals o4 +106

                                                                good luck buddy
                                                                Comment
                                                                • LT Profits
                                                                  SBR Aristocracy
                                                                  • 10-27-06
                                                                  • 90963

                                                                  #33
                                                                  Originally posted by MMA_Oracle
                                                                  LT

                                                                  i get that Nola's advanced stats grade him as a really good pitcher and that's why you're making plays on him, but what do you think is the cause of the disparity between his ERA and xfip. Forgive me if im not extremely knowledgeable of sabermetrics but I would think this disparity is caused by his high BABIP against (.328). Well, cant we look at Eickhoff's and Velasquez's BABIP againsts (.299 and .321, respectively) and just kinda assume that the Phillies are a bad defensive team and that high number wont normalize, therefore were stuck with an underperforming Nola? IDK if that makes sense at all, it does in my head. would love to get your take on it
                                                                  High K/BB ratio can overcome defense. Nola also has a good ground ball rate of 55.6 percent and his hard-hit ball rate is only a reasonable 26.9 percent, so it is not as if he is allowing a lot of hard-hit ground balls that require infielders to have great range.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Snake24
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 06-14-14
                                                                    • 2366

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                                    4 MLB Plays Saturday

                                                                    Twins -108 (5 Dimes)
                                                                    Tigers / Rays UNDER 8.5 -120 (Bookmaker)
                                                                    Royals / Phillies UNDER 8 -120 (Bookmaker)
                                                                    Yankees / Padres UNDER 7 +110 (Heritage)


                                                                    YTD: 236-253-10, -10.26
                                                                    LT, how do you rate Snell thus far? The rook has faced some tough teams in his last four starts. Now, the Tigers.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • MMA_Oracle
                                                                      SBR High Roller
                                                                      • 07-14-15
                                                                      • 170

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by LT Profits
                                                                      High K/BB ratio can overcome defense. Nola also has a good ground ball rate of 55.6 percent and his hard-hit ball rate is only a reasonable 26.9 percent, so it is not as if he is allowing a lot of hard-hit ground balls that require infielders to have great range.
                                                                      Sure, but only four teams have struck out less than the Royals. More balls in play = more opportunities for Philly defense to eff up
                                                                      Comment
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