MLB - Tuesday, 5/24/16

Spartak · 05-24-16, 07:09 AM

Hi LT,
if you dont mind can you tell us how the model rates Baltimore today.
GL with your plays.

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by Spartak

Hi LT,
if you dont mind can you tell us how the model rates Baltimore today.
GL with your plays.

It actually has Baltimore as a slight road favorite, 51% (-104)

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 07:16 AM

6 MLB Plays

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Rays -112 (Heritage)
Rays / Marlins OVER 8 -115 (5 Dimes)
Rockies / Red Sox UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals -103 (Heritage)
Angels +108 (Heritage)
Athletics / Mariners UNDER 8 -115 (Heritage)

Nateboogy · 05-24-16, 07:47 AM

Would you play under 7.5 A's at even?

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 07:57 AM

Originally posted by Nateboogy

Would you play under 7.5 A's at even?

Yes at + anything. No at -101 or more. So yes to +100.

Professor1215 · 05-24-16, 08:41 AM

LT,

What is your tolerance philosophy? For example....under 7.5 you say nothing worse than +100. Why not -101?

LBallday · 05-24-16, 08:46 AM

I have two of those LT, my third was RAYS TT

LBallday · 05-24-16, 08:46 AM

TT o4

44 Mag · 05-24-16, 08:57 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

6 MLB Plays Tuesday

Rays -112 (Heritage)
Rays / Marlins OVER 8 -115 (5 Dimes)
Rockies / Red Sox UNDER 8.5 -105 (Heritage)
Cardinals -103 (Heritage)
Angels +108 (Heritage)
Athletics / Mariners UNDER 8 -115 (Heritage)

NO 60%'s TODAY ????

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 09:21 AM

Originally posted by Professor1215

LT,

What is your tolerance philosophy? For example....under 7.5 you say nothing worse than +100. Why not -101?

Depends on model number. Model has 6.6, so 7.5 is less than one run off. If difference is 0.8-0.9, I want at least +100. If difference is 0.7 on a low total, I want at least +105. If difference is 0.6 or less or 0.7 on high total, I usually pass (but there are exceptions based on judgment).

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 09:22 AM

Originally posted by 44 Mag

NO 60%'s TODAY ????

Coming right up, I got sidetracked looking at NBA and NHL Playoffs (and ended up playing NOTHING lol)

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 09:32 AM

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 67% (-203)
Washington 64% (-178)
Detroit 64% (-178)
Boston 69% (-223)
White Sox 69% (-223)
Seattle 62% (-163)
San Francisco 63% (-170)

scavenginglocks · 05-24-16, 09:49 AM

LT Marlin game over 8.5 at even is still good?

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 10:05 AM

Originally posted by scavenginglocks

LT Marlin game over 8.5 at even is still good?

That is right on the border as I have 9.3, but I'd say yes (barely).

44 Mag · 05-24-16, 10:18 AM

Originally posted by LT Profits

60%ers:

Pittsburgh 67% (-203)
Washington 64% (-178)
Detroit 64% (-178)
Boston 69% (-223)
White Sox 69% (-223)
Seattle 62% (-163)
San Francisco 63% (-170)

Yesterday's 1st ever 80% paid off. Close one.

POOLSIDE · 05-24-16, 11:18 AM

Why no play on the Rockies?

CanuckG · 05-24-16, 11:20 AM

Mariners at -179 seems a bit steep. Thoughts?

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 12:14 PM

Originally posted by POOLSIDE

Why no play on the Rockies?

I am in no hurry to play against Price, 10% above 223 is 245. I get that I could get +258 right now, but would rather pass, Price is sixth in the majors in xFIP.

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by CanuckG

Mariners at -179 seems a bit steep. Thoughts?

Would need at least +176 to even look at Oakland.

PorkChop · 05-24-16, 12:33 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Would need at least +176 to even look at Oakland.

Id argue Oakland isn't a bad play at all.

Starters went head to head May 2nd, Seattle won 4-3.

Won't play out to that outcome again.

PorkChop · 05-24-16, 12:35 PM

Did this with Mets/Nationals yesterday, Vegas' biggest MLB line mistake they continually make;

Colon went head to head vs Gonzalez May 18th, Nats and Gonzo won 7-1. Same exact matchup last night, Vegas auto puts Nationals -150 favorite. Game played out complete opposite. Starters never pitch head to head identically back to back matchup. Mets +145 was no brainer.

Baseball betting is very valuable when your handed previous head to head SP matchups.

iloseagain · 05-24-16, 12:47 PM

Originally posted by PorkChop

Did this with Mets/Nationals yesterday, Vegas' biggest MLB line mistake they continually make;

Colon went head to head vs Gonzalez May 18th, Nats and Gonzo won 7-1. Same exact matchup last night, Vegas auto puts Nationals -150 favorite. Game played out complete opposite. Starters never pitch head to head identically back to back matchup. Mets +145 was no brainer.

Baseball betting is very valuable when your handed previous head to head SP matchups.

how bout cueto/pomeranz? Both of their last 2 starts were against eachother. They went EXACTLY the same. Cueto 2 complete games. Games ended 2-1 and 1-0 in favor of SF

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by PorkChop

Id argue Oakland isn't a bad play at all.

Starters went head to head May 2nd, Seattle won 4-3.

Won't play out to that outcome again.

Originally posted by PorkChop

Did this with Mets/Nationals yesterday, Vegas' biggest MLB line mistake they continually make;

Colon went head to head vs Gonzalez May 18th, Nats and Gonzo won 7-1. Same exact matchup last night, Vegas auto puts Nationals -150 favorite. Game played out complete opposite. Starters never pitch head to head identically back to back matchup. Mets +145 was no brainer.

Baseball betting is very valuable when your handed previous head to head SP matchups.

I pay no attention to stuff like that and it has absolutely nothing to do with how books set the odds. And this is coming from a guy that cashed Mets +147 last night.

PorkChop · 05-24-16, 12:49 PM

Originally posted by iloseagain

how bout cueto/pomeranz? Both of their last 2 starts were against eachother. They went EXACTLY the same. Cueto 2 complete games. Games ended 2-1 and 1-0 in favor of SF

You're correct on this one. Happens VERY VERY rarely. Like Double Headers, RARELY land on the same total. Yesterday Game 1, White Sox and Over, Game 2 Cleveland and Under. Under was a no brainer in game 2.

PorkChop · 05-24-16, 12:50 PM

MLB Doubleheaders - 2016
DATE	TEAMS	GAME 1	GAME 2
May 7	Oakland at Baltimore	OAK, 8-4	BAL, 5-2
May 11	San Diego at Chicago Cubs	SD, 7-4	SD, 1-0
May 14	Miami at Washington	WSH, 6-4	MIA, 7-1
May 18	Boston at Kansas City	KC, 3-2	BOS, 5-2
May 23	Cleveland at Chicago Sox	CHW, 7-6	CLE, 5-1

PorkChop · 05-24-16, 12:51 PM

Id be a millionaire if there was a double-header once a week.

iloseagain · 05-24-16, 12:52 PM

Originally posted by PorkChop

Id be a millionaire if there was a double-header once a week.

i swear someone posted all the double headers from last year and the results were not even close to that chart.. it was more 50/50 than over/under one team/other team

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 12:57 PM

Originally posted by PorkChop

Id be a millionaire if there was a double-header once a week.

Not following your logic you would not.

There is ZERO correlation between Game 1 and Game 2 of doubleheaders, you have to handicap each game on its own merit. And to say the Under in Game 2 between Indians and White Sox was a no-brainer is just insane, it was a matchup of two minor league pitchers. I lost with the Over and would make the same play again, Cody Anderson only has one Game of his Life in his, well, life.

PorkChop · 05-24-16, 12:59 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

I pay no attention to stuff like that and it has absolutely nothing to do with how books set the odds. And this is coming from a guy that cashed Mets +147 last night.

So yesterday, Colon's previous matchup, (& start), against the same pitcher/team, you didn't look at that, and factor into the Mets play?

That's a little surprising to me. But everyone caps different. Happy we both cashed it.

PorkChop · 05-24-16, 01:02 PM

Originally posted by LT Profits

Not following your logic you would not.

There is ZERO correlation between Game 1 and Game 2 of doubleheaders, you have to handicap each game on its own merit. And to say the Under in Game 2 between Indians and White Sox was a no-brainer is just insane, it was a matchup of two minor league pitchers. I lost with the Over and would make the same play again, Cody Anderson only has one Game of his Life in his, well, life.

I wouldnt say he had the game of his life, when this was his stat line a month against Sale and this same WhiteSox team:

Anderson	6.0	6	2	2	2	2	1

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 01:03 PM

Originally posted by PorkChop

So yesterday, Colon's previous matchup, (& start), against the same pitcher/team, you didn't look at that, and factor into the Mets play?

That's a little surprising to me. But everyone caps different. Happy we both cashed it.

One start does not change much of anything, model looks at entire body of work.

LT Profits · 05-24-16, 01:07 PM

Originally posted by PorkChop

Game 1's you always get full lineups. The second game is the 'getaway' if you will, lineups adjusted usually for the lesser, in terms of batters.

But lineups are reflected by posted total, so playing a bunch of subs does NOT equate to more Unders. And Game 2 lineups were close to normal last night with one or two exceptions.

RavensFan2k3 · 05-24-16, 02:10 PM

Anyone like Cincinatti??

funnyb25 · 05-24-16, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by RavensFan2k3

Anyone like Cincinatti??

Ya, bcats does