New Baseball Power Rating System

[Dwell]

Is anyone still using sportrends to calculate over/unders?

[Formulawiz]

Another good night, ML system went 2-0. MIL and CWS both dropped out.
Anyway ML plays later

[Formulawiz]

Todays plays based on early lines are
MIL, CUBS, SF, ATL, BOS, NYY

[barts185]

Reading through the rules, see a couple of difference, so wanted to check.

I thought there was a max of -175, so wouldn't BOS be no play (and on another note - what a line move overnight, could have laid as low as -175 or-180, now up to -220 and higher).

Is there a minus sign missing on MIL? The site (currently, not sure how often it gets updated) says proj 160 actual -130. I thought that would make the play on HOU.

Same question for the CUBS proj 115 actual -130



Added

I also see the site talk about respecting late line moves (although it talks about points, so looks like he just copied something from a pointspread sport), but doesn't specifically say to not play if the line moves against us but there is still a 25 cent difference.

How long before the game do you check? And do you check the sportrends site, or some other site for updated lines?



Thanks,
Bart

[konck]

Mets are climbing they are hitting

[konck]

what happened to the Phils

[Formulawiz]

Very good night for ML system, 4-1. Here are the plays based on late lines yesterday. Thats why you need to look at lines 15-20 minutes prior to start of game. BOS did drop out,
MIL, CHC, ATL, OAK, NYY

Last few nights, 10-3 after having that 0-4 day. We need to figure out why once in a while we have those 0-4 days, and if you look at the W/L record prior to that 0-4 day the ML system just killed them.

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML plays based on early lines.
STL, SD, OAK, SEA

[barts185]

I still don't understand how MIL and CUBS were plays when the projected line made them an underdog and the actual line was them as a favorite.


For example, today's NY Mets at MIL game. Projected line is +120. Actual line is -120. If you do it the same as yesterday, and the line doesn't move, MIL would be a play even though you have to lay money when the projected line says they should be an underdog?

I realize the NY Mets / MIL game is filtered out because the Mets are on a 5 game winning streak, just was using the ML as an example.


Maybe I just have it backwards.

Thanks,
Bart

[Formulawiz]

I still don't understand how MIL and CUBS were plays when the projected line made them an underdog and the actual line was them as a favorite.

Has nothing to do whether a team is a fav or dog. It all depends on the Proj ML vs Act ML and taking filters into acct. Therfore MIL and CUBs were a play.

[Lazyboy311]

Hey Wiz- Just stumbled across this thread, figured I'd run with it for a bit. 2 Questions: do you have a YTD record (or approximate)? And when you post projected leans the night before (ie post #1022), then post the following morning with different plays (ie # 1023), which are we to follow? Are they separate systems?

Thanks for all your work and BOL always

[facasto]

Very good night for ML system, 4-1. Here are the plays based on late lines yesterday. Thats why you need to look at lines 15-20 minutes prior to start of game. BOS did drop out,
MIL, CHC, ATL, OAK, NYY

Last few nights, 10-3 after having that 0-4 day. We need to figure out why once in a while we have those 0-4 days, and if you look at the W/L record prior to that 0-4 day the ML system just killed them.

Nice record

[Formulawiz]

Hey Wiz- Just stumbled across this thread, figured I'd run with it for a bit. 2 Questions: do you have a YTD record (or approximate)? And when you post projected leans the night before (ie post #1022), then post the following morning with different plays (ie # 1023), which are we to follow? Are they separate systems?

Thanks for all your work and BOL always

If you go back to 5/15 for the ML system you should be able to calculate what the win/loss record is.
Secondly you should follow the ML system and filters 15 to 20 minutes prior to game. The plays I put up in the morning are based on early lines and the games can change, drop out or whatever. Therefore I suggest you write down sportrends pro line and then compare to the later lines.

[ShivaBowl]

barts185, Your line on today's Mets game is way off, the line on the Mets -105, were are you getting your lines from?

I still don't understand how MIL and CUBS were plays when the projected line made them an underdog and the actual line was them as a favorite. For example, today's NY Mets at MIL game. Projected line is +120. Actual line is -120. If you do it the same as yesterday, and the line doesn't move, MIL would be a play even though you have to lay money when the projected line says they should be an underdog? I realize the NY Mets / MIL game is filtered out because the Mets are on a 5 game winning streak, just was using the ML as an example. Maybe I just have it backwards. Thanks, Bart

[ShivaBowl]

Bart only use the Proj ML not the Act Line from Sportends. You need to get the Act Line from your sport book.

[ShivaBowl]

Heres the free play today from Sportrends,

MLB Take St Louis W/Carpenter over Cubs W/Wells NO PLAY if < -125 or > -175

The Proj ML is the Cubs 100 The line at my sport book is STL -127 if it falls to -124 the play is off, on St Louis.

AS of 11:25am STL -111 the play on STL is now OFF.

When comparing our projected money lines to the oddsmaker's posted lines there needs to be at least a 25-cent differential or overlay in which the oddsmakers ML's are moving in the opposite direction to our lines.

[barts185]

Bart only use the Proj ML not the Act Line from Sportends. You need to get the Act Line from your sport book.

Thanks.

I was copying the projected line and actual line from the sportrends site, where it still shows projected +120 actual -120 for Milwaukee.

I forgot that this is a "the lines are opposite" type system. If I see something that says that the software thinks the line should be -110 and the actual line is -150, I was thinking that the value would be with taking the dog. If I see the projected line at -140 and the line is -105, I was thinking that laying the -105 would be the value.


But with this system, the reverse thinking is "The line should be -110, but it's -150, and they WANT you to take the dog, so pull a reverse on them and take the favorite." or "The line should be -140, but it's only -105, so they want you to lay that price, so pull a reverse and take the other side."


If everyone is getting the line from different books, everyone is going to wind up with different plays. I thought that the line at sportrends would get updated, so could use that to judge if something was a play or not as long as I checked 15-20 minutes before gametime.

[barts185]

Heres the free play today from Sportrends,

MLB Take St Louis W/Carpenter over Cubs W/Wells NO PLAY if < -125 or > -175

The Proj ML is the Cubs 100 The line at my sport book is STL -127 if it falls to -124 the play is off, on St Louis.

AS of 11:25am STL -111 the play on STL is now OFF.

When comparing our projected money lines to the oddsmaker's posted lines there needs to be at least a 25-cent differential or overlay in which the oddsmakers ML's are moving in the opposite direction to our lines.

This is a great example of what I said in my last post. We would lay -125 or higher with STL, but since we can now lay only -111, it's not a play even though we are paying less in juice now than earlier. If the line had moved up, then it would still be a play. So laying -130 would be good, but laying -111 is bad. Just took me a while to get that straight.



What happens if the line doesn't move, or moves but not enough to make it less than a 25 cent difference?

For example, if the line today on STL had started at -150 and moved to -130, would they still be a play even though the line is moving the wrong way? Or if it just stayed at the opening number or within a few cents?

Thanks.

[Formulawiz]

I would look at the majority of sportsbook money lines. Just because your sportsbook ML is within the the parameters and the majority is not, I would stay away from that particular game. Go with the majority ML.

[peterpan19]

tpr:
tor, cin, atl, was

[barts185]

tpr:
tor, cin, atl, was

Is this the Team Projected Runs fropm sportrends?

If so, thought that it only played dogs. Also seem to be a couple missing if the " a play on the road team is warranted when the home team value is under 1, indicating the home team will be expected to give up more runs." is correct.

Sorry if I'm cluttering up the thread, just trying to make sure I understand.

If it's not the Team Projected Runs, sorry for the intrusion.


Thanks,
Bart

[bobby29]

Formula,
why are you going opposite what the rules clearly say on sports trends site? am pretty confused how you got mil as a play when the play should be the mets.

sports trneds say the line should be mil getting +120, yet they are -110 favorite, so clearly the value according to the rules is on the mets.

So why the opposite play?

same with all the other ones as well.

thanks
bobby29

[barts185]

Formula,
why are you going opposite what the rules clearly say on sports trends site? am pretty confused how you got mil as a play when the play should be the mets.

sports trneds say the line should be mil getting +120, yet they are -110 favorite, so clearly the value according to the rules is on the mets.

So why the opposite play?

same with all the other ones as well.

thanks
bobby29

bobby29

I was confused as well. See my last couple of posts (1032 and 1033). That should explain it. Well, if I'm correct it would explain it anyway

[bobby29]

Sorry Formula, i was wrong. I read the rules like 4 times and could have sworn you were supposed to play the value. I was indeed wrong, so sorry.

Also thanks Bart

Bobby29

[konck]

Mets are a toilet again

[Formulawiz]

Nice day yesterday. ML system went 2-0. To summarize both STL and SD dropped out. Thats why you need to make your plays 15-20 minutes prior to game starting and look at the majority of sportsbook ML's then compare to sportrends Proj ML.

ML plays later.

[Formulawiz]

By the way the ML system is 12-3 the past few days, thats right after having that terrible 0-4 day. Again any ideas as how to eliminate these bad days would be appreciated. Could it be teams when going for a sweep lose. Hope someone can stumble on to it.
The software BB went 1-1 and the PT went 7-1. Not bad.

[Formulawiz]

Todays ML system plays based on early lines.
MIL, COL ?, OAK
As a reminder the ACT ML posted by sportrends are also early lines so dont get confused.

By the way Peter nice night with TPR system going 4-0

[serontin]

very interesting thread... ty

[barts185]

Still confused if Peter Pan is posting the sportrends Team Projected Run plays. I thought he was, but just started looking at this, and don't know how he came up with his list if they are the sportrends Team Projected Run plays since they are suppopsed to be dogs and since reading the rules on the website I came up with different plays. For yesterday, I got

PHI W although some places PHI wound up being the favorite.
LAD W
WAS W
ARI L
CWS W
KAN W
TEX L
SEA W again, only if dog.


For today (Saturday), based on current lines:
SEA
STL
TEX
CWS
KAN
LAD
WAS
ARI


Take Care,
Bart

[ShivaBowl]

Todays ML system plays based on early lines. MIL, COL ?, OAK As a reminder the ACT ML posted by sportrends are also early lines so dont get confused. By the way Peter nice night with TPR system going 4-0

Formulawiz, I need to get OAK at +115 or better if my line is at OAK +112 right?
Thanks

[barts185]

Formulawiz, I need to get OAK at +115 or better if my line is at OAK +112 right?
Thanks

In case Formulawiz isn't around, if I now understand it (pretty sure I do, but not 100%), what you need to have is

DET be -140 or lower.

The theoretical line is DET -165.

So if it's DET -140 or lower (has to be a minimum of 25 cent difference), and it looks like the value would be on DET, we go opposite and play OAK.

Of course, you need to check 15-20 minutes before gametime to make sure that the line is still acceptable.

[ShivaBowl]

In case Formulawiz isn't around, if I now understand it (pretty sure I do, but not 100%), what you need to have is DET be -140 or lower. The theoretical line is DET -165. So if it's DET -140 or lower (has to be a minimum of 25 cent difference), and it looks like the value would be on DET, we go opposite and play OAK. Of course, you need to check 15-20 minutes before gametime to make sure that the line is still acceptable.

My line on DET is -122 it would have to drop to -104 for a play on DET.
I thank anyway, maybe the Wiz can help, my head hurts. BOL

[barts185]

My line on DET is -122 it would have to drop to -104 for a play on DET.
I thank anyway, maybe the Wiz can help, my head hurts. BOL

Why would it have to drop to -104?

The theoretical line is DET -165, the sportrends play is OAK.

Is the -104 some other system you use?

[Formulawiz]

In case Formulawiz isn't around, if I now understand it (pretty sure I do, but not 100%), what you need to have is

DET be -140 or lower.

The theoretical line is DET -165.

So if it's DET -140 or lower (has to be a minimum of 25 cent difference), and it looks like the value would be on DET, we go opposite and play OAK.

Of course, you need to check 15-20 minutes before gametime to make sure that the line is still acceptable.

Barts you are 100% correct on the DET play. As far as the TPR system I thought Peter changed the filter and he plays both favs and dogs.
Hopefully he will answer this question over the weekend.