CK's Daily MLB Tread Leans for 4/16/09

[cocknocker]

I think I'll do the same...as between the NBA and MLB I'm up almost 16 units for the week.

Let's try it laxdjock! I know that we will be the only people in America taking this wager! Sit 'em down Martis!

[SmackdownV]

4 Team PARLAY
$ 10.00 wagered to win $ 267.36 at 04/16/2009 11:57:13 AM
Odds : 26.74 to 1

MLB FLORIDA to Win Even(+117)
FLORIDA (A SANCHEZ) vs ATLANTA (A KAWAKAMI)
Pitching Option :Action
FLORIDA 6 ATLANTA 2
status : WIN

MLB HOUSTON to Win Even(+115)
HOUSTON (R ORTIZ) vs PITTSBURGH (J KARSTENS)
Pitching Option :Action
HOUSTON 6 PITTSBURGH 3
status : WIN

MLB CLEVELAND to Win Even(+190)
CLEVELAND (C LEE) vs NY YANKEES (C SABATHIA)
Pitching Option :Action
CLEVELAND 10 NY YANKEES 2
status : WIN

MLB ST. LOUIS to Win Even(+105)
ST. LOUIS (A WAINWRIGHT) vs CHICAGO CUBS (S MARSHALL)
Pitching Option :Action
ST. LOUIS 7 CHICAGO CUBS 4
status : WIN

Holy Smokes!!!

[laxdjock]

Let's try it laxdjock! I know that we will be the only people in America taking this wager! Sit 'em down Martis!

Much like the craps/roulette table....when you are on a run, you ride it out. I play for low stakes, so I don't mind taking 1 unit flyers here and there.

GO NATS!

Way to go Smackdown!

[UnDeRDaWg]

Hey cocknocker..Im going to jump on your train dude and take the Nats. In my original write ups, I had a lean on the Phillies, but after considering your previous post about the line movement and Public wagering, Im thinking this looks like a good place to take the Nats as well. If you look at the line too, considering the Nats poor record, you would have thought that the Phils would have been getting a bit more chalk. GOOD LUCK DUDE..hope we cash another one

[Jimbo42]

Lemon Drop Kid,
I capped Minnesota last night as a play.... I like it... but I ran it through another form of capping that I do and Toronto is the play with that one... so I'm laying off... I would say in my opinion that the Twins are the side but I'm just gonna lay out on that one...
I actually have the Giants as a play but I bleed Dodger Blue and am having a tough time pulling that trigger cause i will be watching the game and its tough to go against my boys...

[Jimbo42]

I agree fellas Nationals be the play.... I don't think I'm playing it but its the right side... I played Washington yesterday but got rained out so obviously I believe they are ready to win...

[TheLemonDropKid]

I'm sorry Lemon Drop. But Greek has 4.5 first halves, not full 5 innings. That's some tough luck...You can always go see Johnny Mapalo the *** Drinker for a nice easy -5000 favorite winner if you need to get back into the win column te easyway. As for me I played all of my games today for the same amounts except for Minnesota. I put an appropriate amount of consideration on hat play but not much more than a standard wager for me.

No thank you to Mr. Mapalo.......I think I'll stay my ass right here....lol.

Okay.....so I'm on the Twins and the Nats tonight!!

And I can already see the post from you later tonight...."oh well, the twins and the nats couldn't pull through tonight but we had a stellar day anyway."

And then I'm gonna start crying....lol.

[TheLemonDropKid]

Don't chase.

If you want to bet the last of your limit, +230 is a good value for what you get (I personally think Blanton is going to stink it up). My hesitation at first was with PHI's lineup, but every team is going to lose at least 60....so I'm hoping this in one of them for PHI.

Thanks LAX.......let's hope this Nats pick hits for us!

[TheLemonDropKid]

LDK,
What is up bro.... What r u doing.... for crying out loud....
Cleveland +170
St Louis -105
both for the game...chicken dinner.... Dude u are sorta complicating it... the first half are good but remember CKs playin Greek 4.5 inning..
I'm over here stressed about ur bankroll for u bro... you need to win... u are on the right sides... what to do... what to do???

I know Jimbo......I'm sure between yourself and CK I will manage to crawl out of this hole.......from now on I'm only playing exactly what you guys play.

[UnDeRDaWg]

Hey CK...any thoughts on the Mets/Padres game? I have a lean on the Padres getting it done, but Id like to hear what you think

[TheLemonDropKid]

Lemon Drop Kid,
I capped Minnesota last night as a play.... I like it... but I ran it through another form of capping that I do and Toronto is the play with that one... so I'm laying off... I would say in my opinion that the Twins are the side but I'm just gonna lay out on that one...
I actually have the Giants as a play but I bleed Dodger Blue and am having a tough time pulling that trigger cause i will be watching the game and its tough to go against my boys...

Thanks Jimbo! I'm going with Minnesota and Washington tonight.

Please, please, please baby.....please.

[Jimbo42]

Thanks Jimbo! I'm going with Minnesota and Washington tonight.

Please, please, please baby.....please.

I think you're good with those....

[cocknocker]

Hey CK...any thoughts on the Mets/Padres game? I have a lean on the Padres getting it done, but Id like to hear what you think

I think that the over is a better play. It's obviously the least expected play as 54% are on the Padres and 83% are on the Mets runline. The under has 62% of bettors on it, and the over only has 38% of bettors on it. So play the percentages and the bet that no one is taking. I suggest the over 7.5

[Jimbo42]

LDK,
What is up bro.... What r u doing.... for crying out loud....
Cleveland +170
St Louis -105
both for the game...chicken dinner.... Dude u are sorta complicating it... the first half are good but remember CKs playin Greek 4.5 inning..
I'm over here stressed about ur bankroll for u bro... you need to win... u are on the right sides... what to do... what to do???

LDK,
just want to add with that about how CK is playin the 4.5 inning... I used to tail the sensei alot..of course I still ride along on them big plays.. but I learned you gotta play EXACTLY how the big man plays...like in the NBA I'd tail the original lean play and then that would be going down but he'd come in and right the ship by firing on 3rd qtr plays and 2nd half plays and all this stuff... and I'd be sitting wondering what to do and of course miss the play... then the original play goes down and CK is up like 6 units and I'm like aaaarrrghhhh!... so I learned....

[Euphoria38]

hey CK. Props on the Wahooos.

From all the racists out there.

[UnDeRDaWg]

CK, according to my book, more people are on the over the total in that game (over at -115, under at -105)

[cocknocker]

hey CK. Props on the Wahooos.

From all the racists out there.

Shut up Euphoria! We still have love for you. Please continue to impart your wisdom upon us. There will be open board days wheni will pluck picks from the contributors to this thread. I have a feeling that we can be profitable together in a unified effort. The books are out to get us, and so is the linemaker. So we have to stick together too.

[cocknocker]

"

[Jimbo42]

CK, according to my book, more people are on the over the total in that game (over at -115, under at -105)

This is actually good for the over... the book is trying to dissuade you from taking the over.... so what this means is that their are more people betting on the under as evidenced by the percentages... but the smaller group of people that are on the over are betting more money... do you get it bro?

[UnDeRDaWg]

Thanks man...Im gonna make a small play on it.

[Jimbo42]

oops we just said the same thing...

[cocknocker]

The Cardinals cashed our ticket for us, gentlemen. For me it's time to lay off of that series as I got what I was looking for. The Cubs have too high a price for me to chase them with, so I seriously doubt that i will put in any more work on this series

[UnDeRDaWg]

Yea Jimbo..definitely makes sense..you two sold me..good luck

[cocknocker]

It's cool Jimbo. Good minds think alike

[UnDeRDaWg]

Ok dudes..here are my plays

Nationals -1.5 --1 unit to win 2.05 units
Nationals ML--1.77 units to win 2 units
Padres/Mets Over 7.5--1.15 units to win 1 unit

LETS GET EM

[wangichu]

I know that we will be the only people in America taking this wager! Sit 'em down Martis!

oh no you don't... i'm not letting you get all the natty $. i'm sticking to the ML cuz i don't want to get too risky, but i've been watching that line since its inception looking for a single reason not to take the nats and it never showed, so nats it is to wrap up my evening card

morning success:

FLA ML (W)
STL ML (W)
HOU/PIT ov 9.5 (L, by the hook, but it was a considerably smaller wager, so no big

evening plays:

WAS ML
MIN ML
TB ML

[laxdjock]

NY Mets v. Padres are sitting at 7.5 (-110), Pad o3.5 (-105), NYM o3.5 (-135)....all at 5D.

I liked o7, but it's at -145 which has no value. Should I take the o7.5 or the NYM o3.5? I don't trust Maine quite yet, but the Mets have the bats to win a 7-5 game.

[showtime2000]

NHL plays for me tonight,

Calgary +138
Mon/Bos Over 5.5
Columbus/Detroit over 5.5

Good luck all

Hey ragiche, sorry for the delay. Not sure about the over in Chi/Cal. Might be a tight def game.

[Jimbo42]

Aaahhhhh Snap!
Ya'll better pay attention to Showtime! He ain't bullshi*tin!

[Dexter]

Oh my! The Wahoos are up 9-1 now. This thing is getting ugly right before our eyes. I feel sorry for those who paid that amazngly high vigorish or thought they were getting a deal by taking the Yanks runline.

Once again.. CC is NOT a -200 pitcher.

lmaoo - save the trash talking bud

[laxdjock]

NY Mets v. SD o7.5 (-107), 1 unit.

1-2 against Peavy. 1-2 on the SD bullpen. I expect Maine to give up at least 2-3, so you have your spread right there, with a couple bonus runs coming via errors....as that field causes PROBLEMS.

Off to the bar....I'll catch ya'll on the flipside.

GO NATS!
GO METS! (and the over).

[RoagBettor]

CLE 1H cashes
CLE ML cashes
CLE RL -1.5 cashes

I would have also hit the Cards but I just opened up a new account at BetUS and was rushing to get to a golf tournament and didn't realize I had to hit "Confirm" after I clicked "Place My Bet".

Oh well, a great day thanks to CK!

[italiano22]

Personally i think Roy Halladay and the blue jays pull this one off but BOL anyway

[RoagBettor]

By the way, BetUS gave me a 100% match of my deposit ($1,000) with only a 6-time rollover (but baseball only counts for 50%) and a 60-day play. I'm going to use this new account for the NBA playoffs and regular baseball wagering and use my main Bookmaker account for 1st Inning bets only starting May 1.

As per CK's instructions!

[cs11787]

I know this might be a stupid question but who are the NATS???? I see them nowhere? Is it the nationals?