CK's Daily MLB Tread Leans for 4/16/09

[cocknocker]

The Dodgers and Giants are definitely teams that hate each other. With that kind of thing comes runs and guys swinging for the fences. Zito is always around the plate and gives plenty of scoring opportunities to the opposition. I am banking on him giving up some early runs to the potent Dodgers lineup.


Dodgers/Giants over 8 -105


CC Sabathia is overpriced, and now the home crowd gets to boo him because of it. He is NOT a -200 pitcher and Cliff Lee despite his troubles is NOT a +160 pitcher. Cliff Lee has not lost a game on the road to the Yanks by more than one run since 2004, and he is 2-0 in his last two appearances in The City that Never Sleeps. Give me those Crumbs, Yum-Yum!

Indians+1.5 -110
Indians 1st half (4.5 innings) +130


Liriano should NEVER be a home dog. Halladay is lights out, but he can be touched. I'm thinking it will happen early. Give me the live home dog for the 1st half!

Twins+110 or more Crumbs Play-O-The Day
Twins 1st half (line not up yet) (4.5 innings)+160




The Cardinals gained steam over night, and I have to ride the reverse movement and get the quality team at the good value. They are knocking the stuffing out of the ball right now and somehow I don't think that Marshall can get more than 3 strikeouts against this Red Bird lineup that features the reigning NL MVP. And guess what? He is on a tear right now. No crumbs on this bet, but with the lin movement involved it is just what it is. A good play forthe money win or lose.

Cardinals -105


Added BONUS PLAY


I have a feeling about this game and I can't ignore a good line movement when I see one. I am going for the neck on this one and taking.



Nats-1.5 +230 Reverse runline (Light but right)*

*I can't leave all of those Crumbs on the table.

[mcbaseball10]

Chris Jakubauskas (R) pitching for Seattle tomorrow.

[Vince Carter]

yeah

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090415&content_id=4286502&vkey=news_mlb&fext=.jsp&c_id=mlb

[Vince Carter]

i like the white sox, nationals, marlins and pittsburgh tomorrow

any thoughts on those games ck

[whatisit]

Any value in Peavy/Wainwright as dogs? Lee at +180 seems good, but he's been struggling as has the team so little unsure

[kmarinouofm]

i like the marlins to get the sweep tomorrow ... i have them listed at +115.. i will make the call before game time, need to do more research on the braves pitcher.. but i mean off a first glance i gotta like annibel

[cocknocker]

i like the white sox, nationals, marlins and pittsburgh tomorrow

any thoughts on those games ck

I like the over in the Nats game, the under in the Tampa/CWS game, the Braves will avoid the sweep, and Pittsburgh will also go over the total

[cocknocker]

Any value in Peavy/Wainwright as dogs? Lee at +180 seems good, but he's been struggling as has the team so little unsure

Lee is not that good this year, but he is certainly NOT a +180 pitcher. Have to roll with the Tribe in this one. I am watching the line, but more than likely I will be playing them too +1.5 at the righteous price.

[kmarinouofm]

yeah sounds good ck i love those -120 , -130 +1.5 run lines...

[sportsguy04]

I like:

Cubs -115 or
Yankees RL. CC Sabathia and Yanks are at home vs. the Indians. Give me the RL, Yanks beat Indians by more then 2.
Toronto RL . Holliday and Toronto's Hot red offense, beat Minny by more then 2.

[cocknocker]

The Cubs sound good Spotsguy. CC is NOT a -200 pitcher in the American League whee everybody has already seen what he has to offer.

[138]

James McDonald is not a -155 pitcher.... I don't care how far Zito has slipped.

Braves have hit Sanchez in the past. Marlins have never seen Kawakami. Braves won't get swept at home.

[sportsguy04]

The Cubs sound good Spotsguy. CC is NOT a -200 pitcher in the American League whee everybody has already seen what he has to offer.

Yes the ML on CC is not good value (See what happened to Haren and Lowe today). However, the RL -1.5 is +100.

[sportsguy04]

So Updated:

Toronto RL -1.5 +120 (Holliday on mound)
Cubs -115 ML
Yanks RL -1.5 +100

Looks good to me.

[cocknocker]

Now that's more like it Sportsguy! Excellent adjustment

[sportsguy04]

Now that's more like it Sportsguy! Excellent adjustment

Yes, I like the RL simply because the favored team on the ML is at +money only giving up 1.5 runs. Ill take my chances.

[j0hnnyv]

how are the yankees going to lose their home opener with CC on the mound? he rebounded his last start after the bad 1st one.

i cant see them losing that game...tex is back in the line up.

ck you really like cle to win or just fading cc to get the good value?

[j0hnnyv]

Lee is 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA this year??

[sportsguy04]

Lee is 0-2 with a 9.90 ERA this year??

Yanks RL -1.5 +100

[j0hnnyv]

C. lee went only 5 innings in each of the 2 starts and got smashed in both....

[SoonerGreg]

This is my first year to bet baseball and so far I'm loving it. It could be a fluke as I've been fading the Nationals every game after they were swept by the Marlins to start the season. Anyways thanks for the insight CK! Good luck tomorrow!

[tbill11]

My leans for tomorrow:

Dodgers/Giants OVER 9
Marlins +116
Phillies -139
Yankees -1.5 (+105)

Thoughts?

[j0hnnyv]

i like phillies and yankz run line. blanton has been good for the phils and you just cant back the nationials at all yet. phils bats are alive and they have a good arm on the hill.

[Skelaton4]

what about the first inning bets ck? you doing them again

[kmarinouofm]

ck might be right about the marlins not pulling it off tomorrow.. one play though i really like is marlins team over tomorrow again.. projected team total 3.5, or 4... either way i like it...

i might start a thread just about team total overs as i have been hitting them with a nice frequency this season so far..

[Kav]

So Updated:

Toronto RL -1.5 +120 (Holliday on mound)
Cubs -115 ML
Yanks RL -1.5 +100

Looks good to me.

with you on the jays and cubs, yankee's and tribe game im probably gonna stay away from.

Liriano is an unpredictable pitcher, sometimes he's lights out when he isnt though he gets lit up quick. Doc is 99.9% of the time money, i like the jays tomorrow RL BIG!

[cocknocker]

C. lee went only 5 innings in each of the 2 starts and got smashed in both....

Lee is having normal beginning of the year jitters. And he had hard umps in his last two games as well. The umpire for this game is a generous one who is known for producing unders, and favorable strike zones for pitchers (only in New York). But this willalso work to the advantage of Lee as well.

And yes I am fading the line with nothing personal against CC. If he was worth it, then we woudn't even be having this conversation. But I think the public is expecting a chicken dinner today and last I checked, Cleveland is 7-3 straight up against lefties dating back to last year just like the Yankos. So that's got to be worth a shot. The Indians have banged out 20 hits over their last 2 games, and the Yankees 15. Lee is due for a correction and it will happen tonight. He is too good of a pitcher to have 3 straight bad outings.

Matter of fact, based upon the backlash that I am getting on this wager, I am also adding Cleveland 1st half as well, as I must be onto something if the consensus in here is predominantly Yanks too. CC did not win even ONE game where he had the big chalk last year in the American League. He is not deserving of such a high line. The Mets lost their opener at their new stadium and so will the Yanks.

[j0hnnyv]

i locked in yankees -1.5+108 (5dimes)

i dare the indians to beat the yanks with CC on the hill in their home opener in that beautiful ballpark.

its not happening!!!!!!!!!

[cocknocker]

Also adding the Twins 1st half as well

[kmarinouofm]

i am leaning toronto team over tomorrow.. projected team total 4

[cocknocker]

Twins Crumbs will be tasty

[cocknocker]

what about the first inning bets ck? you doing them again

Nope. Friday I will take a stab at them again

[Skelaton4]

Alright, Today was a little rough for us in the beginning but the late games helped even it out. Thanks for the awesome picks today. Lets get them tomorrow. I might fade the Yankees tomorrow CC dont impress me

[whatisit]

Gonna try this out once again...plays for tomm.
Cle ML (+184)
Stl ML 5 innings
Sd -.5 5 innings

[twinky99]

CK thanks all these while been tailing you and don't know what to say, you're just the best