MLB Leans ~ Friday 4/10/09

khaliagent · 04-09-09, 09:38 PM

Originally posted by Dexter

just one play for me on friday.

derek lowe looked awesome this preseason and that translated nicely in a game 1 win at the phillies. tomorrow he gets the home opener for the braves vs the woeful nats. lowe has a career era/whip of 2.41/.88 vs the nats, including 2er in 16ip last year.

-braves RL -1.5 (ml to come once booked) (big - 3x)

gotta love a great sinker baller like lowe.
hopefully we get nutting but grounders.
i will tail this one base on your info on lowe

cocknocker · 04-09-09, 10:32 PM

I finally got a chance to get somebody else for starting a thread with the wrong date! Don't you mean the 10th, lol! Anyway. It's Friday f*ckers! I'm going to be a gambling fool in baseball today! All small except for the Indians!

Cleveland Indians 1st half (No line yet) SEMI-BIG
Brewers team total under 3.5 -110
Kansas City +155 OMG! Pettitte is horrid with big chalk
Pale Hose 1st half
Pale Hose team total ov 4.5

R. A. Dickey gave up 8 runs in 2 innings last time he pitched at Comiskey
Cardinals-140 HEAVY

ALSO

I AM PLAYING ALL THE 1ST INNING RUNS TO SCORE TODAY ONLY

Jshap1515 · 04-09-09, 10:42 PM

Dex, I'm gonna go HUGE on the Braves tomorrow. They will crush the Nats. There are prolly a lot more reasons but

1. Braves home opener
2. Lowe gave up 0 runs vs the Phillies
3. Nats are 0-3 already and looked pretty bad vs the Marlins.
4. Never heard of the Nats starter, Martis.
5. If the #1-#3 starters are bad for the Nats, I can't imagine what #4 is.
...
...
...
3465724. Braves are the better team.

I hope I'm right or else I'll look like a fool haha

cocknocker · 04-09-09, 10:58 PM

The Nats+1.5 is the correct call on that one. No free chicken dinners in baseball wagering. Especially against an unknown pitcher. Nats were huge for me last year in +1.5 situations. This is a good spot to take them. I personally am laying off of this one because I have some stronger wagers and one good opportunity (Royals) for a big payday with little put up. Not trying to bust your bubble or take away any shine.

Jshap1515 · 04-09-09, 11:12 PM

Nats looked abysmal. They couldn't do anything right, even stop Bonifacio from stealing whenever he pleased.

Vince Carter · 04-09-09, 11:48 PM

lol jshap what are you talking about?

martis is a good pitcher and there's a lot of value in the nationals at +190 and your reasons are horrible

suicidekings · 04-10-09, 12:06 AM

Not that I disagree with the Braves pick entirely, but Martis has some potential. In four starts as a september callup last year, he got beaten up by the Mets in one start, but the other three were decent. Add to that, he put up solid numbers this spring. I think that later in the season he'll be higher than #4 in the rotation.

Writing off "unknown" pitchers can cost you a lot of money.

whatisit · 04-10-09, 12:26 AM

Crap...CK did you manage to save your research on pitcher records when heavy faves/trends? Just realized that threads been removed..forgot to save the info.

whatisit · 04-10-09, 01:06 AM

F it..gonna try my hand at this sport for the first time.

Chicago spread(5 innings)

I know it's Mil home opener but Chi last year in Mil went 5-2. Harden vs Brew Crew went 1-0 with 1.5 ERA in 2 starts. I am expecting a big year out of him as it is his contract year. Hopefully he doesn't let me down. Looper isn't 100% yet with the strained oblique injury in ST, and Mil offense outside Fielder/Braun isn't too good against RHP.

Gonna tail Dex with the ATL RL, even if it is a homer pick.

GL guys.

cocknocker · 04-10-09, 01:56 AM

It's one and done whatisit. You can research a pitcher by going to Winning Edge.com and look up the logs from last year. It would have been a good guide for baseball wagering for all, but this is how it has to be. I got the order from a PC to shut it down, so I had to do it right away. Anything that was in there has to go too as a result.

danrman · 04-10-09, 02:09 AM

i agree w/ ck on the nats.. u guys better be careful.. im likin the cards,mets,det,seattle,sd maybe.. thats what im lookin at right now

Dexter · 04-10-09, 09:08 AM

Originally posted by danrman

i agree w/ ck on the nats.. u guys better be careful.. im likin the cards,mets,det,seattle,sd maybe.. thats what im lookin at right now

dan - no one needs warnings anymore from you. i will still be able to pay my mortgage if i lose the bet. im not laying 240 on the play.

its kind of annoying when you do that man...

Dexter · 04-10-09, 09:35 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I finally got a chance to get somebody else for starting a thread with the wrong date! Don't you mean the 10th, lol! Anyway. It's Friday f*ckers! I'm going to be a gambling fool in baseball today! All small except for the Indians!

what are you talking about??? its 4/10

yes sir ck - in baseball, there most certainly are free chicken dinners on some nights. baseball has always been the sport i have been best at, and i attribute that to my love for pitchers. i watch baseball night in and out. derek lowe appears to be in a zone (counting his spring) and im riding that train this april.

DDT · 04-10-09, 09:57 AM

I really like the Rangers ML on the early game today and for the Rangers team total to go over 4.5.

cocknocker · 04-10-09, 10:05 AM

Derek Lowe isn't the problem today. The problem is the unknown pitcher throwing to unfamiliar batters. By the time they figure out what he is throwing the Nats will have the early lead because of their familiarity with Derek Lowe, especially Adam Dunn, a perennial 40 home run 100 rbi guy. I say that he cranks one out with a guy on before the 5th inning. And if they get the lead at any time in this game it's basically over becuse they also play small ball when guys get on base. The Nats +1.5 is the correct call on this one

TheLemonDropKid · 04-10-09, 10:45 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

I finally got a chance to get somebody else for starting a thread with the wrong date! Don't you mean the 10th, lol! Anyway. It's Friday f*ckers! I'm going to be a gambling fool in baseball today! All small except for the Indians!

Cleveland Indians 1st half (No line yet) SEMI-BIG
Brewers team total under 3.5 -110
Kansas City +155 OMG! Pettitte is horrid with big chalk
Pale Hose 1st half
Pale Hose team total ov 4.5

R. A. Dickey gave up 8 runs in 2 innings last time he pitched at Comiskey

ALSO

I AM PLAYING ALL THE 1ST INNING RUNS TO SCORE TODAY ONLY

Games that almost fit your critieria:
Rockies
Marlins
Rangers

Games that actually do fit:
Pirates
Nats
Royals

Does this make me Teacher's Pet? LOL

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 10:48 AM

Originally posted by cocknocker

And if they get the lead at any time in this game it's basically over becuse they also play small ball when guys get on base

Come on man. Have you seen the Nats play? Not saying there isn't intrinsic danger in picking the Braves, but to say if the Nats get the lead at any time in this game it's basically OVER is LOL funny.

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 10:56 AM

I guess we can just give the 2010 CY Young award to Mr. Lowe already. Not sure where everyone is seeing a blowout. These are the games if you bet throughtout the year you lose lots of cash. Not willing to lay big chalk with a pitcher who had 1 good outing against a pitcher the braves no nothing about and these type of pitchers can and have gone out and had a quality start. Gl with the Braves play.

alukk · 04-10-09, 11:03 AM

early leans:
Tampa.
Kansas.
Texas The red ones straight and also parlayed em
Tex/det over10
Angels

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 11:25 AM

Schaap -

Again, there is no chalk being laid. The run line is even money. Unless you just consider the 1.5 runs chalk, in which case you would probably never like a run line bet in the first place.

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 11:28 AM

There is run chalk and no i dont like run lines..the are sucker bets if u ask me..there are always better dog plays out there that cash more bol

repski · 04-10-09, 11:33 AM

this kid Campbell is killing Augusta...-11 thru 28 holes...

repski · 04-10-09, 11:39 AM

Texas +125

Rolling with the hot team and getting paid to do it.....Texas will find a way...

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 11:42 AM

Agreed

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 11:43 AM

Everyone keep betting the braves so i can get 2-1 on the nats

suicidekings · 04-10-09, 11:49 AM

Actually, Martis made his ML debut against the Braves last year. 5IP, 4H, 2ER, 5BB, 2K.

Shairon Martis (P) Game Logs - Minnesota Twins

http://ca.sports.yahoo.com/mlb/players/8347/gamelog;_ylt=AieJQ_hc5sXdLrZxiMLJdt7JbQM6?year=2008

Sports News, Scores, Fantasy Games

TAPDATBOOK · 04-10-09, 12:02 PM

DETROIT & OVER

Texas is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing DetroitThe total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing DetroitTexas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Texas

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 12:08 PM

that doesnt matter it was last season

jellobiafra · 04-10-09, 12:30 PM

It means they are not facing a pitcher that they "know nothing about". Unless you think he's completely changed his repertoire in the last 6 months. Or does the "know nothing about the pitcher" only matter when it suits your outlook on a game?

schaapattack · 04-10-09, 12:41 PM

Originally posted by TAPDATBOOK

DETROIT & OVER

Texas is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing DetroitThe total has gone OVER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing DetroitTexas is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit

Detroit is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Texas

This is the post i was referring to sir

TAPDATBOOK · 04-10-09, 12:51 PM

Originally posted by schaapattack

This is the post i was referring to sir

Schaapattack, thanks. I base on the results of last year to cap games in the beginning of the season, so you think it is not the right way to do it, thanks for your advices.

RoagBettor · 04-10-09, 01:19 PM

CK, I notice that most of the lines for scoring a run in the first inning are negative today. Interesting.

patsfan2727 · 04-10-09, 01:29 PM

I think that Nats +1.5 is a donkey play....here's why....

You are laying (-115) juice on a team which SUCKS on the road, SUCKS at home, versus Derek Lowe, at home, in their home opener.

If you choose to bet the nats ML at +190 thats fine, do your thing.

Cocknocker, please convince me how getting that extra 1.5 runs is worth the $1.05 in juice?
You're essentially cutting your possible profits in half just in case the nats happen to lose by 1 run.
Seriously, I really don't understand how you can be so confident in this play.

Once again, if you want a -115 solid bet, I'm pretty sure the nats are one of the worst.

Everyone talks smack on taking the favorite on the RL...but I look at it like this

You can take a favorite (braves -200) and essentially get them at + money or even money

You can take a dog (nats +190) and essentially make them -115 or worse, just to get a measly 1.5 runs help.

If you like to bet the dogs, thats cool. However you will not sway my opinion that changing a +190 dog to a -115 "favorite" is a "smart play"

TAPDATBOOK · 04-10-09, 01:36 PM

Milwaukee +125 & Over .

Pick Milwaukee behind Branden Looper
Milwaukee is 0-2 as dog so far this season, I believe they will win their first dog game at HOME tonight against Chicago.

PLUS........

Milwaukee is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games at home against Chicago Cubs.

The total has gone OVER in 7 of Milwaukee's last 10 games when playing Chi Cubs at Miller Park