G's baseball thread and record

[G's pks]

I knew that G, but I wanted a re-confirmation of that. I am losing anyway with ATL, but I hope the loss will be cut today and not get bigger. I did the same with JM's picks, but there I was wrong because the C bets always won (except 1 that he won't admit) so betting C less than A+B loss or skipping C, I lost good money in there!

Again though skipping games is not part of the system.. I will go down with the "c" bet tonite if it loses... I will not disappear or stamp toxic waste thread closed like in the thread mentioned above... I am not trying to sell a system or blindly lead anyone into a massive losing night... Patience is required...smaller betting, and accepting a loss once in a while. The biggest problem I see in these type forums seems to be the "I cannot be wrong" theory in which people all of a sudden feel the need to make up everything at once... We all need to slow down...there will be more sports tomorrow, the day after and the day after...

GL tonight guys on all your plays... And remember system #1 ending up failing because I did follow the extremely dangerous John Morrison rules of wagering...

Not this time... a loss tonight means I will be doing stats tonight for the weekend series... A win tonight means I will be doing the stats for the weekend series... I am doing this till the end of the regular season... I am not going to pretend it will work in the playoffs or switch teams as odom did and lose his "c" bet on the cubs today telling people to bet $2500 or more... Not my style guys... I am in this for entertainment...and to finish the season up... Still headed in right direction... and how ironic would it be if the Braves come through with a win for those that jumped from team to team in that Odom "c" bet...

Back tonight, tomorrow and the next day... GL guys!G.

[G's pks]

G, I did overbet Atlanta tonight, but I also countered with a couple parlays involving the San Diego +220 ML (if those hit, you'll see a thread about it) that are hedging my bet on the Braves.

You are absolutely right about the system being designed to win over the long haul, not having disastrous results. When I saw Odom's C bet was on the Cubs today, I about crapped my pants. Counting on a horrible, struggling Cubs as a big favorite against the resurgent Nats. In fact, one of my parlays on the Padres included the Nats at +190, which I thought was a great value.

Anyway, will be following you tomorrow and taking your advice about reducing risk on the game 3 bet (hopefully we don't have another one)!

Good work on your system of hedging.... Be careful some are in here trying to sell systems or make you believe they are 99-0... I am just someone who stumbled over a system by researching stats and wanted to apply it for a full season to see if it would hold up.. System #1 would have won if i did not design the risk amount around the Morrison system... Guys these get rich quick touts are a scam... As many of you do... I have access to see most of there picks and most battle to stay in 50 to 58% range... Morrison has been successful in certain areas but you are always having to bet the adjusted juice and that applys to any book due to so many being on the bandwagon...

Lets go braves...but if they do not win...lets all be back to play again tomorrow... GL G.

[G's pks]

Much better start tonight 5-0 Braves end of two innings...

[G's pks]

8-0 now....

[G's pks]

And when all the dust and doubting settle its another system win...

Update 8/27
Atl moves to game #3 Won game #3 series ends with the win/Thursday
Phil moves to game #2 Won game #2 series ends with the win/Wednesday

Ok...not the easiest of weeks but the system adds another win to the record... Will update record when game is officially over...9-0 now...in in bottom of 7th.

[G's pks]

[quote=G's pks;2160733]8/27

Atl game 3 of series... -237 1.50/.63 150 to win 63 Won


G's recordkeeping
Bball picks 23-5-2picks (Counting system series baseball picks (54-7-2)
Total 62- 8-2 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1 plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
System #2(25-1) games within series (25-14)
System #2 +11.83

[BlueJays]

It's a C bet win and it's great! However, it's actually a loss as long as the total for A+B+C is in red!
For tomorrow I am already in with BOS and NYY. I'll wait for your next pick G!

[G's pks]

It's a C bet win and it's great! However, it's actually a loss as long as the total for A+B+C is in red!
For tomorrow I am already in with BOS and NYY. I'll wait for your next pick G!

The system is based on winning a game within each three game chase... so record wise it is a win... Dollar wise it is a loss...because of the money management system I have chose...which has nothing to do with the system picks...

The systems job is to pick winners it does...my job and anyone who follows the system is to manage their money...and the money management system I have put in...seems to be doing very well... Completely different from the picks themselves... I expect some ended up winning by doubling, some finished slightly down, which if they have been following the rules the whole time...puts them up around...12 units...

My goal is to have a winning season... I am not worried about small within series losses along the way..they will happen...but the system rumbles on... Looks like the system is up just about 12 units to me? G.

[G's pks]

Ok just a thought first... I am going to start eliminating some teams down the final stretch run of the season here based on their position in the standings... On a night like tonight where the road teams dominated... Atlanta was one of the few home winners and was the one the system had tonight...so that turned out good.

Also more road teams may now be included due to playoff factor... Ok working on the system picks for this weekend 8 series have been eliminated either automatically or by the system rejecting... I will still include teams considered out of the playoff hunt if they seem to have a very good edge over the other team...

Any series that started on Thursday is eliminated...so the main teams the system is looking at as we head to the weekend are: CUBS, DET, NYY, BOS, LAD, FLOR, AND STL.

Not even half the filters have been run...and when the first level of filtering is done in morning should chop this list down quite a bit... But all of the teams coming out of that group look strong except the Cubs...but lets see if they pass the filters... First round of filtering should be done by lunchtime Friday... Second level at least a few hours before games start. Will post leans after first level is completed in morning..then official picks later G.

[BillAccpetor]

Nice...

[BlueJays]

Last night the dogs won 10 of 13 games!!!! Under these circumstances I really don't know what systems might work fine. Probably we should start betting on dogs because even if they lose more than 50% of the games, the juice you get with a win is much better then when you bet on a favorite!

[ZBOIZ]

G!!! Let's get it

[G's pks]

Last night the dogs won 10 of 13 games!!!! Under these circumstances I really don't know what systems might work fine. Probably we should start betting on dogs because even if they lose more than 50% of the games, the juice you get with a win is much better then when you bet on a favorite!

But it is not just picking dogs. Some think just because they bet a dog there is value... What value was there in SD yesterday with a guy on the mound (Richard/ex white sox) that pitched 2 innings giving up 9 hits and six runs in a starting role. I always go with the teams I think will win! Maybe the system filters in a few dogs once in a great while.... But not much...the system looks for strength verus weakness head to head. Usually this type of filtering will pick favorites...

Working on picks right now...

[G's pks]

Nice...

Did you double up..or back off on Atlanta... I am sure you had them...

[G's pks]

G!!! Let's get it

Working on it...

[G's pks]

Ok..the systems first pick is LAD, passed all filters, but the one thing it did not like is the Reds four game win streak...
Will add some notes when all done with picks... Will edit add picks on this post.

Picks: No order of strength
LAD


Still working on the others..

[ZBOIZ]

Dodgers it is baby!!!!!

[G's pks]

LAD is the only one coming up clear right now... So i started looking in a few series in progress, LAA also is looking good...would be an unoffical play because series has already started...

[Ralphie1412]

Zboiz c'mon man.

[G's pks]

LAD -183 .44/.24 44 to win 24

We have Billingsley, Haeger and Kershaw against Bailey, Maloney and Arroyo in that order...

Still going over the Angels...

[ZBOIZ]

Dodgers already locked in baby

[BlueJays]

LAD is betting against JM's pick! I am not saying it's not right but I have to choose one side or the other!

[G's pks]

With the Dodgers we have the #1 team in pitching versus the #29 team in hitting. We have the 3rd best hitting team against the reds 18th ranked pitching staff. The reds are last in the league in runs scored...

With the Angels we have a team with its biggest question mark being its 27th ranked pitching staff... But I think we have several factors trhe filters like in this series that actually started yesterday with an A's win. So maybe we start this chase tonight/Friday.... Here is what the system liked on this one...
LAA 2nd in runs scored.... A's bottom ten
LAA 1st in hitting against the A's 25th ranked pitching staff
(The one weak point) LAA pitching ranked 27th in system...but the A'S bats rank 25th!

Unofficial pick due to the fact series started.... LAA will include in record as it will still at this point be a three game chase...

8/28-8/30


So the only two system plays for the weekend are:
LAD
LAA

I like some of the other ones but getting hard to figure what teams are losing interest as they fall out of the race... I have not placed a play on LAA yet...still loking over a few things... But wanted to get plays out... If I play LAA will be listed...and as always the plays I play go into the record...

GL everyone! G.

[G's pks]

LAD is betting against JM's pick! I am not saying it's not right but I have to choose one side or the other!

Its not the first time...and remember with these chases it is every easy for both systems to end up winning... I listed the starting pitchers for the series in order...you decide who has a better chance of winning at least one game... I say the Dodgers... GL G.

[G's pks]

Dodgers already locked in baby

Z were you with us on the Braves yesterday? The system won, but I did take an overall loss on series money wise due to my money management style.

[ZBOIZ]

Yea I cashed on the Braves yesterday But I had net loss for the day

[BlueJays]

I am on LAA anyway - bet B (hopefully last) and with LAD-CIN you may win both ways or just split.
I can also choose CIN - RL which may mean a LAD victory as well! Hard to choose!

[Ralphie1412]

ZBOIZ quit calling him baby....its creepy.

[G's pks]

8/28

LAD -183 .44/.24 44 to win 24

We have Billingsley, Haeger and Kershaw against Bailey, Maloney and Arroyo in that order...

Still going over the Angels...

Adding LAA -146 .20/.14 20 to win 14

Thats it for tonight...

[G's pks]

I am on LAA anyway - bet B (hopefully last) and with LAD-CIN you may win both ways or just split.
I can also choose CIN - RL which may mean a LAD victory as well! Hard to choose!

8/28 Friday

Just so no one is confused in here...your "B" bet on the Angels would be the "A" for this system....

There was no play for the system listed or talked about here on the LAA yesterday.. The scan was done for the first time for this series this morning...

So we have LAD game #1 or "A" as some like to say
and...
LAA first game of chase tonight so also "A" as most like to say..

First plays for each series start tonight...

LAA
LAD

[G's pks]

Yea I cashed on the Braves yesterday But I had net loss for the day

Sorry to hear that I was up for the day...Braves were my only play...but down for the series seeing it lasted 3 games.

[BlueJays]

With this chasing strategy and a conservative money management I think that is truly important that the A bets have to be won. I am betting B to get my money back and a small profit and C's are always a loss (bigger or smaller). Lately I can not get an A bet win and that is killing me because betting on favs require a lot of juice, so the damage is way bigger!

[G's pks]

With this chasing strategy and a conservative money management I think that is truly important that the A bets have to be won. I am betting B to get my money back and a small profit and C's are always a loss (bigger or smaller). Lately I can not get an A bet win and that is killing me because betting on favs require a lot of juice, so the damage is way bigger!

The key is the A, or B. bet in the series...obviously the "A" winning is cash in pocket... "B" game wins still show a profit... where as "c" which I believe the system has had only 2! One yesterday (braves win)and the Mariners series loss( a few weeks ago)... So if out of 26 series played...only two have ever gone to "c" bets with the rest winning in either the A/B game would mean.... 24 out of 26 series have shown a profit with this conservative approach... I will take that any day of the week!

And that is not counting the at least 20-30 other system series that are listed that all won with A/B wins that I listed as plays but did not bet that were not included in my record...due to only my plays going into record...

G.

[BlueJays]

G, you are doing a great thing here but is it possible that as we get closer to the end of the season, the system will fail more often? Even JM will stop soon!
And I was not lucky enough to follow you since the beginning so I think that I might break even with your picks (maybe a small loss because of ATL).

[GGPLAYER]

LAD is betting against JM's pick! I am not saying it's not right but I have to choose one side or the other!

JM plays are on the +1.5 RL. So LAD can win for G and Cin can win in the JM system.