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Maybe my lucky day by missing a bet? Not sure yet but Indians just scored 2 in third and 4 in forth...just finished up top of forth Indians 6-0! Usually I miss a game and my team wins...maybe..I know its far from over..but maybe missing this one saved me some dollars...(would have been small anyways) but mariners up in forth right down big... Back later tonight busy day...leaving again and feeling a little better now... Well still wondering about dodgers... Still looking at Marlins starter... Who the hell is VandenHurk?Comment -
I see its 6-0 now... You know the thing is all the series have been winning... Seattle looked horrible last night and obviously the same today... I have been listing five series at a time for quite a while now all winning... But I have only been picking one or two to bet... Can you imagine how many times I have kicked myself thinking I should have bet all five?
The system is way overdue for a loss.. hopefully this is not it but...the whole idea of this chase system is to stay conservative as I mentioned... If you are following the rules of this chase...you would have went from half a unit to one unit on the first game...just slightly more on second game, So this series...should not be putting you down deep... I lost .4 of aunit on game one...so even if I got a bet in...it would have been to win .6 of a unit so it would not have hurt to much... the whole idea of this chase is slowly building a bankroll... Not having to worry about a system loss or two, or three, but still offically at zero.
I get a few e-mails a week from people not understanding the system... For those following it...every single one in system #2 has won... So if you are following the basics of the chase system you should be up around...11 units!
I am going to repost the rules in a single post again...and that way that post can be referred to.
I have to many people thinking it is a rotation of the teams listed! I know you are not one of them... but I have explained the system in private messages to quite a few people...
I have to go to dinner now... half an hour late...but when I get back I will post rules of this chase system again...which are listed several times throughout this thread...but this time I will bold, and make very clear the rules of this system which must be followed again..
I hate to see someone saying they are down deep on a possible loss when the system series is 16-0! 16-8 on total plays... I will reprint the rules when I get back... Have to fly...Comment -
Yeah seattle is done for today, they can't score 8 runs on there best day. Oh well I'm gonna give this one up been a bad couple of days for me, take a break tomorow and reset for monday.Comment -
I know Seattle as a team came in with a great era.... In fact third in the league...
Hitting wise they are in the middle of the pack. But what i noticed last night and looking at their lineup from today the bottom half of their order is horrible...
5 or 6 through 9...batters .205 or less? Funny how teams like the Cards can just go get above average players from the Indians and A's but Seattle had such a horrible lower half of order...
Ok let me explain my system over again and mention nothing else this time...in next post..
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Are you bettimg LAD tonight?Comment -
First my chase bet
7/25
LAD -170 .86 to win .51 (81 to win 51)game #2 of seriesComment -
This is simply a review and no changes in current system just wanted to review everything, including betting rules to be successful using it.
Ok this will be the post I refer back to for the rest of the baseball season....which is so long...lets see if this system can make it through the year... Up to now just the picks the system has selected that I bet on are 16-0 in series wins, and 16-8 games within each series. Total system #2 has at least 20 more series winners than in my record because I did not include the wins in my record that i did not bet, but they are posted as picks within this thread. The first post for system #2 started on 6/8/09.. System #1 failed because of a failed betting system...not because of a failed system. One sweep on a four game series Cards/rockies wiped out the winnings for me on baseball for the year at that time. So I adjusted my betting style and added ten more filters at that time to system and created system #2.
Well system #2, has built my baseball winnings back up...and here are the rules..
System #2 Conservative Chase System (I like to pick from one to all of the picks, but normally just pick one or two out of each series filter)
This is a chase system. It is based on a three to four game chase. It always starts with the beginning of a new series picked only by the system. Otherwise I will refer to the chase as unofficial...
How it works...
System makes the pick, bet on game #1, if it wins that ends that series. If it is a loss we move onto game #2 of that same series. And a third bet within that series if game #2 is a loss. Either way that chase ends at that point after game #3 with either a series win or a series loss. Much like the John Morrison Chase of a,b, and c.
I asked for help as far as setting up a chase betting system and actually discussed with a member here helping me set up system #2... He decided not to help out with the approximate week long project that it took to put together...his loss...
Well this is how I ended up just devising a basic system of betting on my own that I know there are systems like it already...
So here are the rules to make this system a success...
This system is not a get rich quick scheme...it is meant to get someone through the year hopefully hopefully on the plus side. I spend between two to four hours at the beginning of each new series set working with the system gathering the needed stats then capping at second level of filters...there are 15 new series that start usually twice a week (30 teams, 15 series).
Game #1 starts out with a bet between .2 and 2 units... if a win that ends the bets on that series...there is no bet on game #2, #3.
If game #1 in series is a loss, we move to game #2. On game #2, we would bet a maximun of 1 unit or any amount up to that to show a profit. If a win that series ends at that point.
If game #2 is a loss. Here is where there is a major difference in this chase system.. We actually go back to a smaller bet on game #3. Betting up to the amount bet on game #2. So we do not double up at this point! we try to cut our losses and move onto next series. So from .2 (20) or whatever you are setting your numbers at, to 1 unit. If you do not follow these rules and chase with just doubling or risking crazy amounts that is your choice. I believe with this method, there is a very nice chance we finish up for the year.
One last thing...there are sweeps normally a few in every new set of the 15 game series, so being on the wrong side is always a chance...and will happen once in a while... So remember this is a chase system with limited risk if you follow the rules. .
When should a game be skipped? Remember the system does not take into consideration pitching matchups, that is something I do in the second level of filters by reviewing every single pitching matchup in the upcoming 15 games. If there is a pitching change(injury), a callup from minors to start....usually a good time to skip a game win or lose, especially if our team makes the change.
I hope this answers all the questions I keep getting. G.Comment -
[quote=G's pks;2048164]Ok system picks...in order of strength for weekend chases...
#1 SEA moves to game #3
#2 BOS Won game #1
#3 LAD Won game #2
#4 NYY Won game #1
Updated stats...great night for the Dodgers!
Saved me from my first losing week with this system...came down to Casey Blakes single in the bottom of the ninth...
So all the series have won except the mariners who move to a game #3. The system faces its first chance at a loss if the Mariners lose tomorrow... Not sure I am going to bet it...thanks to sticking to the system and betting the Dodgers on the bail out... Well as always if I play it...will be posted. Just want to enjoy the big Dodger win right now... Might take day off tomorrow...Dodger game was a tight one...
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Ok today we move to the last game of the Seattle series. That is if you played it. If you played the four series listed, three have won and ended. So this is the only series left. Obviously at this point the system itself does not say much! So what I see...
Lee starting for Indians makes them a favorite in the game... The Mariners and Indians usually play each other two series a year. Seattle has played and won the series in Cleveland and the reverse in Seattle.
Lee has pitched two complete games his last two outings against the Mariners. Also is 3-1 in his last 5 starts against them with a ND in one start....
Did not find any stats for Vargas against the Indians this year or last...
from what I see...even though Lee has been very, very good against the Mariners... I would not call this a pitching mismatch.
Seattle is the toughest team to score runs against(4.2) and oddly enough the lowest scoring team in the league (3.9)... I have gone through a lot of stats on this one and I still am not sure... So at this point still no bet... If I bet on it...will post. Because I have bet a game in the series, it would count as a system series loss and be the first one for system #2 if Seattle does not win. Should be a better game today and with the plus odds on Seattles side... I am still tempted... Just knowing how well Lee has done on the mound against them is holding me back...Comment -
Going down with my system today? Lets see... I will give it a small shot...hopefully the Mariners can overcome Lee...
7/26
Seattle +125 .20 to win .25 (20 to win 25) game #3Comment -
1 SEA moves to game #3 (lost game #3) First system series loss...
#2 BOS Won game #1
#3 LAD Won game #2
#4 NYY Won game #1
G's recordkeeping
Baseball 16-3-2 picks (Counting system series baseball picks (39-5-2)
Total 47- 6-1 NHL, NBA, MLB
System #1 plays based on 3/4 game series 6-1
System #2(17-1) games within series (17-9)
System #2 +11.50
7/26
Seattle +125 .20 to win .25 (20 to win 25) game #3 lost
Finally a system series loss... and as you can see...avoiding the double up mentally saved me quite a bit. No big deal at all... I know the game is not offically over in the 6th...but down 8-2, after leading 2-1 after the 4th... i think its over...
Well onto next week...going to start working with the system and spent a few hours getting some series ready for next week. Even with all the winning one series sweep and I only finished week up $15! But that is ok...if anyone remembers what system #1 four game sweep cost me.. (my whole season baseball winnings up to 6/8/09 over 20 units)... So at this point I will take being up 11.5 units and move on...
Just looked at score 11-2 now. So the final goes in the book still not over!...working on stats now....hopefully everyone is having a good weekend...still glad the Dodgers saved my weekend Saturday... Well time to hit the numbers....also will try to figure out how Seattle lost 3 games in a row at home to one of the worst road teams.... No adjustments will be made to system... Series sweeps will happen every set of 15 games that start... The system helps to avoid them...
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Looked over all the stats I use to see if i could find anything that forced me to put Seattle in for the weekend. I did not find a thing! All the filters gave me the go sign... So staying small and following the guidelines of the betting system I set up this time unlike system #1 sweep...did not hurt.
Looking over the stats it gave out all positive readings...to be honest if i receive the same set of signals on a series again this week...it will be listed... So it is just going to happen sometimes. Hope everyone is having a good day/night...back to the stats for next week... G.Comment -
7/27
System chase picks
Boston
Texas
Will add possibly one or two more...Lets see if the system rebounds after its first series loss... Already see massive chalk on Red Sox....Comment -
7/27
texas -128 .30 to win .23 (30 to win 23)Comment -
Yep seattle lost, I got out after bet 2, I live near seattle and I can tell when there on a losing skid
. The rest of the picks were money as usual, I also cashed the dodgers pretty big on saturday was a good win. I'm with you on texas and boston, though I might wait and see if boston loses game one and jump in lot of juice on that one. BOL in the new week G lets get paid
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Also I'm gonna bet the angels on monday to try and get back some of the unit I lost on seattle because I really don't think cleveland has a 4 game streak in them against the west. Plus the angels make bad pitchers look worse lately.Comment -
Does your filter account for the fact that DEt is 6-0 this year against TX this year.
I'm suprised your system did not come up with teams like LAA or Col this past weekend. Col seems like they should always be a play since they have not lost a series since May 25-27 to LAD.Comment -
GGplayer here are the results of my system plays last week including the first system #2 series loss....
Series starting 7/20-7/21
#1 NYY Won game #1
#2 LAD Won game #1
#3 PHIL Won game #1
#4COL Won game #1
5MIL system #3 Won game #2
1 SEA moves to game #3 (lost game #3) First system series loss...
#2 BOS Won game #1
#3 LAD Won game #2
#4 NYY Won game #1
Unofficial picks
Arizona won game #1
Detroit won game #1
I think the system did very well!
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Not looking to get into here but this is more than a hot steak. I'm not just talking about one week either. LAA is 22-7 since 6/23 and has won at least one game in every series played during that time. Col is on a run of 36-16 since 5/28 with at least one win in every series played. I know the rearview mirror often looks better but I just am suprised your system did not produce those teams. Was curious if your system took information like that into consideration. Listen if I knew what I was doing I would not rely on picks produced by you and others. I was just throwing it out there for some discussion and thoughts. Your picks have been amazing and your advice on small bets is key. I appreciate your efforts.Comment -
I try not to disagree with the system...but as of last week i did start adding unofficals plays...Det/Ari that both won in game #1... Again odd how some teams just do not pass when I know they appear easy winners of at least one game...
And as far as Detroit being 6-0 this year... I am not worried about it... Texas is very tough at home and a key filter says they do not get swept... Not saying the system is not ever wrong...but of course it could be...
If you have series ideas please post them and i will try to give you an idea what the system sees... Alot of times I get a neutral reading... Col is winning but batting wise they are not lighting up the league and LAA is winning but there pitching is a mess! That is why the system keeps giving neutral ratings mainly.Comment -
They are great. I missed most of them but played all 3 of Sea. I was "Mr. Conservative" last week and only played one series (Philly). Well actually then I played Mil game two. So I figured I would jump on all of them this week...but I missed the NYY one because I did not see it until it was too late. I also skipped the AZ and Det plays because you marked them as "unofficial". Only won my money back on the LAD series because I was so shell shocked on Sat after Sea lost that I became scared again. So it's just some bad luck and timing for me playing all 3 fo the Sea series. Just sucks because I have been burned now a few times chasing. Baseball is tough. So the fact you are hitting at such a high rate is amazing.GGplayer here are the results of my system plays last week including the first system #2 series loss....
Series starting 7/20-7/21
#1 NYY Won game #1
#2 LAD Won game #1
#3 PHIL Won game #1
#4COL Won game #1
5MIL system #3 Won game #2
1 SEA moves to game #3 (lost game #3) First system series loss...
#2 BOS Won game #1
#3 LAD Won game #2
#4 NYY Won game #1
Unofficial picks
Arizona won game #1
Detroit won game #1
I think the system did very well!
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[quote=G's pks;2055539]I try not to disagree with the system...but as of last week i did start adding unofficals plays...Det/Ari that both won in game #1... Again odd how some teams just do not pass when I know they appear easy winners of at least one game...
And as far as Detroit being 6-0 this year... I am not worried about it... Texas is very tough at home and a key filter says they do not get swept... Not saying the system is not ever wrong...but of course it could be...
If you have series ideas please post them and i will try to give you an idea what the system sees... Alot of times I get a neutral reading... Col is winning but batting wise they are not lighting up the league and LAA is winning but there pitching is a mess! That is why the system keeps giving neutral ratings mainly.[/quote]
Cool that is what I wanted to hear. I was just wondering why things shake out the way the do.
Series I like this weekend and keep in mind this is just based off what I know and see from teams recently. Phi @ AZ. Philly is hot and owns the best road record in MLB. See them winning one at least with Moyer, Hamels and Happ. SF at home against Pit. SF is a different team at home and Pit is 17-36 on the road. But I don't like the juice tonight.Comment -
Thanks...if you read the rules that I am applying to the bets...believe me...by seasons end we should be up. Remember I tried a first system and kept doubling up and lost over 20 units (all my baseball winnings for the season up to that point)...was up around 15 units with my picks, around 10 with system #1, when Colorado swept all fout in Stl...crushed me...
I started with system #2 all over again... and have very slowly built my account to +11.50 units... If I was betting 10 units a game I would be up over 100 units...have an ulcer and probably have quit weeks ago!
The key to all this is not overbetting games/or money! I expect to lose quit a few games...and I know the system is doing nuch better than I would! Saturday night I would have not bet the Dodgers when they won..very, very hard to ignore your feelings and let the system do the work...but I did and it saved my week...
But you are right hot teams are a key factor in my system and I am surprised some are getting skipped...but there seem to be reasons.. And as far as Seattle goes... I am thinking about adding a few filters to see if that helps...one I am thinking about adding is runs scoredper game...Seattle is dead last...but every single filter I use gave a go sign against Cleveland...much like the series wih the Cards/rockies which I ignored one filter and it cost me over 20 units! That is why sometimes teams like LAA/COL are not included...ignoring a filter or two can be costly... G.Comment -
[quote=GGPLAYER;2055562]I agree on the Giants...actually they are very close to being an add on as a system pick...great call! I agree the juice is going to be tough...just like the Red Sox...
I just wish the Giants would start scoring some damn runs! Oh and this is a home based chase...that is why you do not see any road teams... When I started system #3 which was based on road teams. I planned on combining them once it got in a groove... The system (#3) started out 2-0, someone complained/mentioned it was confusing having another system so I stopped for now... (It is in this thread back somewhere..might try to find...) But yes next year there will be two systems, or one adjusted for both...
I like your thoughts...
G.Comment -
Texas is a much different team at home than on the road... And they are a pretty damn good road team... But Detroit is a very poor road team and this is where the system likes to match up... What a team like detroit does at home against Texas has no filter in this system... Only what happens in Texas...and I believe their last six meetings in Texas are 3-3.. that is fine when you are just trying to win a game...
I am also going to try to add a filter for next year that once in a while cuts down on the very high chalk teams... But you know they are the ones that win all the time! G.Comment -
Also remember i usually do not bet all the series either...this is the first time I did and I caught the series loss too! When I list four/five, it is really the person picking what they want... Seeing they all had won I finally gave it a shot at exactly the wrong time...like system #1, but this time the other series wins actually left me up for the week... So the key is following the betting scale i included...
I was thinking for next year also a 2 game chase...would be interesting... G.Comment -
Same thing happened to me this weekend with toronto I was so shell shocked after game 2 lost on sat that I backed off on seatle and barely made anything on the dodgers. Try to get back in it today with some Texas brewers and angels action. Gonna stay away from Boston today to much chalk. But I'll pick em up tomorow if they lose tonight. Bol tonight every one.Comment -
I agree with the thought of Cleveland being crap... And the reason the LAA make bad pitchers look bad is they lead the league in hitting... I wanted to post this one but unfortunately...the Angels pitching is right near the bottom of both leagues... So yes...I do not see the Indians going in against maybe the hottest team in baseball and sweeping them...but if you chase that series go small recover small...the idea here... Do not get wiped out! How many guys do you see going all in over a course of a month if you look closely...alot, and they usually lose when they do.
Stay in the game by betting with some set rules...never break them.. Breaking them is a bigger chase then this chase system...Comment -
I see now that Boston is over -300! Going to be hard to play at those odds... Wow... Also glad I put my Texas bet in last night win or lose.....see odds have moved -140 and more...Comment -
Are you following the John Morrison Chase? I see you mentioned Toronto... I know it was a Morrison pick I get them...but do not play them... Just like to watch how he does...that is where I came up with the idea for my system... But odd... we never have the same picks because filters are different...
I have the whole system for the Morrison system someone was nice enough to send it to me...still have not read it...will this fall..Comment -
Yeah I do, I totaly blew it this weekend on toronto. I didn't play the runline on Saturday and skipped the 3rd bet on Sunday lost 20% of my bankroll and like another 8 on Seattle. But still up on the year thank God. Texas is a jm official play today so I 2 systems picked it. Jm and yours G so I really like them to win tonight.Comment
