Thanks guys! 
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Gonna be a rough night. Bullpens already hurt me twice.
At least I win my soccer picks.
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4 losses, 3 by the bullpens. I think that at least 66% of my recent losses were by pens. What a crap. Will go 1-4, can't remember when I've had such a bad last.
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Yesterday: 1-4, -2.93 u.6/7
Dodgers -1 +101, L, -1.00 u.
Giants -1 -107, L, -1.00 u.
Angels +105, L, -1.00 u.
Rangers +109, L, -1.00 u.
Mets -1 +107, W, +1.07 u.
Ouch.
Overall Record: 42-36, +10.29.Comment -
6/8
Cardinals -135
Cardinals/Rockies Over 10 -115
Royals/Twins Over 8 -112
White Sox -1 -101
Dodgers -1 -106
Looks like no dog play today.
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I'm on the Lackey Under 10.5
and on White Sox
BOL hope phill hughes gets lit up for yaComment -
Lackey has a high road ERA, David Hale (COL) has already given up 3 HR in only 12.2 IP, Hughes has a high home ERA, Jason Vargas has a high road ERA and Twins hitting LHP quite well. Have some queries to back it up but not the time to put it in here.Comment -
Yap. Playing multiple bets per day will produce days like yesterday. That's inevitable.
Looking at the record my placed bets have a ROI of about +13%. That's not too bad I think.
I bet Soccer as well and while I don't bet it as much as baseball I am still able to make some profit (I have started a thread in the soccer forum btw if somebody is interested).
So all in all I am fine, but it's really disgusting that so many of my bets lately were lost by the bullpen. What are they doing this year?
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Seems to me every bullpen sucks, except maybe Yankees??? Look at Houston yesterday. Joke,Yap. Playing multiple bets per day will produce days like yesterday. That's inevitable.
Looking at the record my placed bets have a ROI of about +13%. That's not too bad I think.
I bet Soccer as well and while I don't bet it as much as baseball I am still able to make some profit (I have started a thread in the soccer forum btw if somebody is interested).
So all in all I am fine, but it's really disgusting that so many of my bets lately were lost by the bullpen. What are they doing this year?Comment -
Lets sweep the board on MondayComment -
Why is everyone on the Cards? Lackey not good at Coors field at all. Rocks pitcher not bad and new to Cards so might be a surprise for them. Not against the Cards pick just wondering what angle everyone is on?Comment -
If the game comes down to the Bull Pen like it seems it does every time these days. will you back the rox or Cardinals? plus STL is on a roll, you gotta ride them till they slow down.Comment -
David Hale is overrated and was a lucky guy when at the Braves. He wasn't good at AAA this year before getting called up to the bigs.
Lackey may not be good at Coors, but who is? And do you really wanna draw a conclusion out of his 2 career starts at Coors? One was not too good (2013) and one was bad (2010). But look at the brackets. 2010, you know, he then pitched for the Red Sox, these were the times when they had Beltre at third. Rockies look completely different now, this rough start back then doesn't mean anything.
Exactly. I do back the Dodgers and their damn pen again today, but I will try to focus more on reliable pens in the future. It's really starting to get frustrating.Of course this strange play did have a big role yesterday, but come on, Gregerson gave up a ground rule double to Kawasaki to start the bot 9th and after that a single. Maybe the Stros would have won if they had gotten Bautista out, because he would have been the 2nd out, but overall I don't think that you can give this play the bigger role, when Gregerson gave up 4 hits and 1 walk as a closer. That's a joke, sorry. Multiple closers are so bad this year, it's unbelievable. You know, even a guy like Kimbrel struggled a few weeks ago. He has a career high WHIP of 1.43. I mean, what's going on? Out of nothing I could name at least 10 closers who act like a joke this season.
It's really ugly when you have multiple run leads in late innings for teams which you bet on and then out of nothing the pens blow it. How do you handicap that? Right now it's very difficult IMO.Comment -
6/9
Parlay Pirates/Dodgers +169
Cubs/Tigers Over 8.5 -114
White Sox +128
Cardinals -114
Rangers +170
Phillies/Reds Under 8 +100
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Another rough day. Hope to turn things around soon. Done with betting on favs, I'll be back with the doogies.
Yesterday: 2-4, -1.02 u.
Record: 47-42, +10.07 u.Comment -
any leans for today?
any opinion on this Reds pitcher today Jon Moscot?Comment -
'Depleted' may be the wrong word, because Hamilton (55 wRC+), Phillips (102 wRC+), Byrd (98 wRC+) have been mediocre (which does mean they are not as replacable as one could think). Mesoraco (47 wRC+) hasn't played in weeks and didn't contribute much when healthy either. Jerome Williams is a gas can and I don't know enough about Moscot. I skip it.Comment -
I'll be only betting on odds of at least +100 or bigger over the next time. I have lost lots of units by betting on favs lately. Back to the roots. And another small change: I won't bet 1 unit on every game, I will bet to win 1 unit. Example: If I bet on a dog with odds of +122, I bet to win 1.00, so I will stake 0.82 units. Also no totals. Only either RL plays on favs or ML plays on dogs.
6/10
Marlins +136, 0.73 u
I see the chances of the Fish at about +125. May seem strange, but it's mostly because of Copeland. To quote someone from a Jays Fans-board: "If Scott Copeland starts a game for the Blue Jays this season you know a lot of things went horribly wrong". Guy doesn't strike batters out and he had lots of luck via BABIP in the minors. Marlins start Koehler, who doesn't give up many homers. Good for playing at Toronto.
Nationals +127, 0.79 u
Yankees shouldn't be such high favs. Yes I know, Gio got his troubles this season and got roughed up against the Yanks in the first match against them this season. But his sabermetrics and advanced stats look good and he has a very high chance that he will reduce his ERA over the next few weeks. Eovaldi is off a solid outing against the Angels, but he got roughed up against the Nats, too and his advanced stats and sabermetrics don't look as good as those of Gio. The Yankees-run will end some time, maybe today.
Rockies +115, 0.87 u
Wouldn't be surprised of a sweep here. Martinez has the edge in the starter's matchup, but Chad Bettis has pitched very well this year. Cards bats look cold right now, only 12 runs in the last 5 games and injuries seem to hurt them more than I thought. Watched the last 3 innings of the Rockies win of last night and some guys looked totally being out of it at the plate. The last at bats of Peralta and Carpenter looked horrible.
Orioles -1 +131, 0.76 u
Both teams did better recently, but although Porcello is not too bad of a starter I will ride Chen here, because the Red Sox are only 4-9 overall and 1-4 at Camden Yards against him.
Cubs -1 +121, 0.83 u
Tigers looked better lately but never ever would I go against Arrieta in a matchup against Shane Greene in his current form. This is by far the biggest pitching mismatch today IMO.
Indians -1.5 +137, 0.73 u
Yesterday's win made it thirteen games in a row that the Mariners offense scored 3 runs or less. Elias, pitching yesterday, keeps to be underrated because of...I don't know why, maybe because he doesn't get run support. Today is a different story. Bauer against Walker is a real mismatch IMO, maybe even bigger than Kluber vs. Elias yesterday. Walker has been a joke on the road thusfar and that can't be explained only by being unlucky because his advanced stats and sabermetrics are all way worse on the road compared to at home, too. Bauer has been worse at home than on the road, but I like his and the Indians chances here on smashing Walker.
Padres -1 +120, 0.84 u
I like Tyson Ross much more than Williams Perez. Both guys have a similar ERA and although Ross has command-issues this year, walking way too many batters, Perez walks even more guys. Both guys have nice strikeout numbers, but those of Ross are elite this season. And compared to Perez, Ross has been more unlicky this season (BABIP). Lineup-wise there is no side I would give the clear edge here, but if it comes to pitching I pick Ross anytime over Willams Perez.
Giants +138, 0.73 u
Hudson against Harvey is a big mismatch which favors Harvey, but I like the chances of the Giants here nonetheless. They have a totally rested bullpen after Heston's no-hitter yesterday. Mets will want to prove that they can do damage after yesterday, but I like the Giants lineup much more. If the odds had been at +125 to +130 I wouldn't have placed a bet, but so I'll take a small shot here. And Harvey has been shaky from time to time this season.
Dodgers -1.5 +124, 0.81 u
I read some talk lately about the Dbacks raking up LHP, but IMO this is overrated (they are 3-6 in their last 9 against LH starters). That's the first thing. The second thing is that the Dbacks offense looked rather silent lately, scoring only 9 runs in their last 4 games. And Anderson is really solid this season, so he should be able to keep them away from hitting too well. Hellickson is a gas can, which makes it my 2nd biggest pitching mismatch today. And the Dodgers like RHP starters at home. If you take out the three losses against the Cards RHP starters Wacha, Martinez and Lynn, the Dodgers are 21-4 at home against RHP this season, 18 of those wins with at least 2 runs difference or more.
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Looking at both, but I think I'm on Marlins with you bud
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Hope they hit, my massive card is complete for today.
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Laid off the phills...whew...I took Marlins TT Over 4...hope they start hittingComment -
Wouldn't be surprised if the Marlins come back when they see this Copeland guy for the 2nd or 3rd time through the lineup. Doesn't look like his stuff is outstanding. So this 0-2 right now doesn't scare me. And the Blue Jays lead is a little bit lucky.Comment -
Oh, another one who was beaten by pens? That sucks, I was a victim of them, too. But I read Trading Bases lately and although there aren't many in-depth stats in there, it shows that bullpen outputs fluctuate a lot. So I think sooner or later it will get back to 'normal'.Comment -
Okay, that's the first loss for today. Marlins' fielding is to bad today. Gonna watch the Nats/Yanks game instead of it.Comment -
It's so typical. Yankees bats silent against Gio all game until he gets to 90+ pitches. Instead of getting him out Matt Williams leaves him in and now it's 2-2. Thanks.Comment -
Ah, there it is. 2-3.
This bet will be lost, too.
EDIT: And 2-4 because the ball hit the 2nd base bag. WTF is going on. Gotta turn it off. If this will be another losing day I stop betting for this week or longer. It's not fun anymore.Comment
