CK's Daily Baseball Thread Leans for Wednesday 4/8/09

Collapse
X
 
  • Time
  • Show
Clear All
new posts
  • cocknocker
    Restricted User
    • 11-06-08
    • 8001

    #1
    CK's Daily Baseball Thread Leans for Wednesday 4/8/09
    I can't remember what the hispanic words for it are, but I think it's otres vas, or again.... Let's see I lost yesterday with milwaukee and the Royals. Tampa bay lost a game that they should have won, but they hit the ball at people instead of the gaps. Anyway I know that these teams will continue to get crumbs in their series, so I will continue to play them, knowing that eventually they will bring home the bacon as an outright dog winner...

    Milwaukee +100 (They did get 10 hits yesterday after all)
    Milwaukee 1st 4.5 innings
    Milwaukee-1.5 +180 (projected reverse runline)

    Other plays:

    Royals+100
    Cincinnati-110 (Voloquez..I mean what more do you want?)
    Cleveland/Texas over 10.5
    Rockies 1st 4.5 innings BigMoneyMan special
  • wangichu
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 11-07-08
    • 946

    #2
    4-0 yesterday to put me at 6-1 on the season, hoping i'm not jinxing myself by saying that but i'm on...

    leans:

    love cincy. Pelfrey has looked bad coming into the season and i think he regresses. Meanwhile, volquez just got tired last year, but i think he'll be be good. Either way, reds can outslug anyone at home, especially with a considerable pitching edge

    CIN ML

    leans on

    LAA ML
    LAD -1.5
    MIN -1.5
    Comment
    • Vince Carter
      SBR Sharp
      • 02-15-09
      • 498

      #3
      i'm playing:
      reds -102
      brewers -108
      twins -146
      marlins -129
      blue jays -126
      pirates +152

      7-4 +3.035
      Comment
      • suicidekings
        SBR Hall of Famer
        • 03-23-09
        • 9962

        #4
        Leans

        NYY @ BAL (+154), UNDER 9.5 (-125)
        - Koji Uehara makes his ML debut after playing for 10 years in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants. Excellent control with lots of strikeouts and 56 complete games in ~220 career starts. Watching some video of him pitch, he's got some devastating stuff (striking out Barry Bonds 3 times in a game in 2002).

        ATL (-103) @ PHI
        - Vazquez had a strong spring / WBC with a good K/BB ratio. ATL has looked good in this series and are definitely motivated to go for the sweep of the WS champions. RLM is also a factor.

        PIT @ STL, OVER 8.5 (-125)
        - Duke has performed well in the past as a big dog, but not against St Louis, and Wellemeyer had a rough spring. I think Duke will outperform Wellemeyer, but both will give up a lot of runs.

        LA @ SD (+160)
        - Walter Silva is making his ML debut for the Padres. He's a strikeout pitcher that has issues with command of his fastball, but facing a Dodgers team that has already managed to strike out 20 times in 65 at bats, it's not a bad spot to take a chance on him. He was pursued by both the Dodgers and the Yankees going into this season.
        _______________________________________
        MLB 2009: 1-2
        Comment
        • pbateman
          SBR Hustler
          • 02-05-09
          • 61

          #5
          I also noticed the RLM on the Braves game. What do you think about this pick CK? I'm thinking about tailing Suicide Kings here.
          Comment
          • pbateman
            SBR Hustler
            • 02-05-09
            • 61

            #6
            Also, does anyone know who this new Orioles pitcher is? Never heard of this guy.
            Comment
            • cocknocker
              Restricted User
              • 11-06-08
              • 8001

              #7
              pbateman,

              use CBSports.com to find out who that pitcher is. There is considerable RLM on the Braves, Blanton is a horse, but he never lived up to expectations when he was with the A's. It looks pretty grim for the Brewers and Giants to lock it up tonight. It's rainy and ugly out here in California today. If that is the case, then I will not be able to get the matchup that I want in this game which is Gallardo vs Johnson. But I will stick with my other two picks anyway
              Comment
              • solobass
                SBR MVP
                • 01-15-09
                • 1277

                #8
                CK let me tell you something brother. you want to talk to me about ugly weather hells bells we were "blessed" with 5 inches of effing snow on Monday! anyway some interesting data.

                Favorites/Dogs this year are falling right around historical averages after 3 days of full action complete with dogs winning 43% of games SU

                Home dogs (always a value in NFL!) are 3-2 SU so far.

                Tigers bullpen has blown more than games, they blow massive chunks.

                espn gamecast is not as cool as mlb gameday. mlb gameday does not have video advertisements.

                Only 5 out of the 23 games have been decided by 1 run.
                Comment
                • solobass
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-15-09
                  • 1277

                  #9
                  Booked plays so far

                  Marlins runline +130
                  Marlins score first +100
                  Comment
                  • cocknocker
                    Restricted User
                    • 11-06-08
                    • 8001

                    #10
                    I just keep on punching those dog moneylines. I love crumbs!
                    Comment
                    • repski
                      SBR MVP
                      • 02-01-09
                      • 1929

                      #11
                      Minnesota Twins -150

                      -Carlos Silva was 2-8 away from home last year with a 6.70 ERA.
                      -Silva threw just 10 innings this spring. He gave up 22 hits and 13 runs while striking out just 4 batters.
                      -Slowey 25 innings this spring and gave up just 6 runs and 3 walks while striking out 22.
                      Comment
                      • repski
                        SBR MVP
                        • 02-01-09
                        • 1929

                        #12
                        lots of serious RLM out there today....
                        Comment
                        • repski
                          SBR MVP
                          • 02-01-09
                          • 1929

                          #13
                          Originally posted by pbateman
                          Also, does anyone know who this new Orioles pitcher is? Never heard of this guy.
                          did you even read the post 2 above yours??
                          Comment
                          • solobass
                            SBR MVP
                            • 01-15-09
                            • 1277

                            #14
                            well at least the first inning prop cashed....nats up 1-0
                            Comment
                            • cocknocker
                              Restricted User
                              • 11-06-08
                              • 8001

                              #15
                              This ain't nothin' solo. Just wait until the weather warms up and the real results start coming throgh. I think everyone is now at least a little alarmed at how frequent a run scores in the 1st inning now. A lot of the detractors thought that my system was a joke before the season began. But I don't like to play them in April as it seems to be a break even month. I like those months when you get 50 or more of them to come back as winners over losses, and pick up a cool 15 dimes with no homework involved.
                              Comment
                              • suicidekings
                                SBR Hall of Famer
                                • 03-23-09
                                • 9962

                                #16
                                CK: What's your opinion on the NYY/BAL game? I feel like the price given on Uehara is generous considering his history and Wang's relatively high ERA vs Baltimore in his career.
                                Comment
                                • laxdjock
                                  SBR MVP
                                  • 09-15-07
                                  • 4074

                                  #17
                                  The Yanks pen is going to struggle against the O's. Unless Wang goes 7, the O's are going to hang some runs.
                                  Comment
                                  • SlicWilly3
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 11-05-08
                                    • 607

                                    #18
                                    Loving the under fella's in the Atl/Philly game. I don't see this game going over 8 runs. Both previous games were low scoring, and with Vazquez and Blanton on the mound.....And Philly's bat silent. I don't expect any different.
                                    I also really like the Cubs tonight with Lilly on the mound.
                                    "Success doesn't just happen, it happens for those that take action"
                                    -Donald J. Trump
                                    Comment
                                    • cocknocker
                                      Restricted User
                                      • 11-06-08
                                      • 8001

                                      #19
                                      Originally posted by suicidekings
                                      CK: What's your opinion on the NYY/BAL game? I feel like the price given on Uehara is generous considering his history and Wang's relatively high ERA vs Baltimore in his career.
                                      The over looks like the correct call to me. There are 64% on the under yet the total line has stayed stiff . I also think that any bet against a -200 line is a good bet, because if you win it you erase two losses with one play. Baltimore is a great play. I may throw some crumbs on them as well.
                                      Comment
                                      • SamsNCharge99
                                        SBR Aristocracy
                                        • 10-22-08
                                        • 41242

                                        #20
                                        Comment
                                        • cocknocker
                                          Restricted User
                                          • 11-06-08
                                          • 8001

                                          #21
                                          Rolling with Biggie and the Rockies 1st 4.5 innings.
                                          Comment
                                          • TheLemonDropKid
                                            SBR MVP
                                            • 02-02-09
                                            • 1501

                                            #22
                                            Originally posted by cocknocker
                                            Rolling with Biggie and the Rockies 1st 4.5 innings.

                                            I'm rollin' with you on this one.....you are due to hit.
                                            Comment
                                            • repski
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 02-01-09
                                              • 1929

                                              #23
                                              Phils give up runs again in the top 1st.....what a way to open in front of the fans....let the booing start
                                              Comment
                                              • cocknocker
                                                Restricted User
                                                • 11-06-08
                                                • 8001

                                                #24
                                                Originally posted by TheLemonDropKid
                                                I'm rollin' with you on this one.....you are due to hit.

                                                I'm going to hit a lot today. I played all of the 1st innings today just for the hell of it. 3-0 so far already
                                                Comment
                                                • BmoreBucco
                                                  SBR Sharp
                                                  • 12-10-08
                                                  • 278

                                                  #25
                                                  Prop of the day:

                                                  Inflated line here. I really like Doug Davis so I think he will keep the Rockies in check, so that may be enough right there.

                                                  Clorado/Arizona under 31 runs/hits/errors (-120)
                                                  Comment
                                                  • khaliagent
                                                    SBR MVP
                                                    • 01-13-08
                                                    • 2117

                                                    #26
                                                    Originally posted by suicidekings
                                                    Leans

                                                    NYY @ BAL (+154), UNDER 9.5 (-125)
                                                    - Koji Uehara makes his ML debut after playing for 10 years in Japan for the Yomiuri Giants. Excellent control with lots of strikeouts and 56 complete games in ~220 career starts. Watching some video of him pitch, he's got some devastating stuff (striking out Barry Bonds 3 times in a game in 2002).

                                                    ATL (-103) @ PHI
                                                    - Vazquez had a strong spring / WBC with a good K/BB ratio. ATL has looked good in this series and are definitely motivated to go for the sweep of the WS champions. RLM is also a factor.

                                                    PIT @ STL, OVER 8.5 (-125)
                                                    - Duke has performed well in the past as a big dog, but not against St Louis, and Wellemeyer had a rough spring. I think Duke will outperform Wellemeyer, but both will give up a lot of runs.

                                                    LA @ SD (+160)
                                                    - Walter Silva is making his ML debut for the Padres. He's a strikeout pitcher that has issues with command of his fastball, but facing a Dodgers team that has already managed to strike out 20 times in 65 at bats, it's not a bad spot to take a chance on him. He was pursued by both the Dodgers and the Yankees going into this season.
                                                    _______________________________________
                                                    MLB 2009: 1-2

                                                    I like em all except for the baltimore pick.
                                                    I never go against my man wang he will only have 5 losses on the year and this wont be one of them but best of luck, no play for me on the yanks game
                                                    Comment
                                                    • TheLemonDropKid
                                                      SBR MVP
                                                      • 02-02-09
                                                      • 1501

                                                      #27
                                                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                      I'm going to hit a lot today. I played all of the 1st innings today just for the hell of it. 3-0 so far already

                                                      Sweet! Well I'm gonna be playing everything you post today, so I hope you keep rollin' baby!

                                                      So far it's MIL (game)
                                                      MIL (1st 4)
                                                      CIN
                                                      CLE/TEX Over 10.5
                                                      UTAH +3
                                                      IND -5.5
                                                      MEM/ORL UNDER

                                                      Am I missing any?
                                                      Comment
                                                      • SlicWilly3
                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                        • 11-05-08
                                                        • 607

                                                        #28
                                                        Sorry to anyone who listened to me with the under in the Philly's game

                                                        We'll sticking with my Cubs tonight, and also like the Reds.
                                                        "Success doesn't just happen, it happens for those that take action"
                                                        -Donald J. Trump
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ragiche
                                                          SBR MVP
                                                          • 12-09-08
                                                          • 3110

                                                          #29
                                                          My only play for today folks.Nyy -1.5 VERY HEAVY(Wang will come through in this game because he wants a comeback performance from last year cause of a foot injury.As i see uehara's pitching last year he gave up alots of walks while playing in japan(I also watch some japanese baseball last year,because i was in japan last august).I know this will be his debut but wang dominate's the orioles going 3-1.I can smell blowout in this game.I'm gonna give a chalk on this game CK).
                                                          Comment
                                                          • wangichu
                                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                                            • 11-07-08
                                                            • 946

                                                            #30
                                                            booked:

                                                            CIN ML
                                                            (write up above, post #2)

                                                            MIN -1.5
                                                            twins squeaked one out last night and this is the first time so far that they have had not only a pitching matchup in their favor, but one decidedly in their favor. They're due to put a smack down on the mariner's who's bullpen will be needed tonight, even after being exposed and worn down last night

                                                            also, i'm really looking for a runline or ML to parlay with TAMPA +1.5 because of the way kazmir handles the red sox, i just want the security of a runline on that one because of the fact that it's in boston, who i think wins that division this year. When i parlay in baseball i like -130's to -160's that i feel are as close to locks as one can find.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • wangichu
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 11-07-08
                                                              • 946

                                                              #31
                                                              adding LAD -1.5, I remember thinking that the dodgers needed a padres killer going into last year to combat peavy and the padres' propensity to beat on my dodgers, and that's about the time that billingsley stepped up and struck out 12 pads in a dominating effort to salvage a 3 game home stand against the pads. Dodgers outclass the padres this year and are coming off a loss to the padres' #2 ace. Now they get fresh meat in a rookie pitcher making his first start. Dodgers may strike out a lot, but they do have batters that work counts and make quality at bats. Plus there will be a lot of teams that put up K's against the padres quality 1 2 punch of peavy and young, but those are two seasoned pitchers with a few years of experience under their belt. This is a first time pitcher going against the dodgers ace in waiting (though if kershaw starts getting off, chad will likely be their number 2).

                                                              LAD -1.5

                                                              also like the money i can get on the baltimore runline. I don't like fading wang because he's one of the few pitchers from the yankees who doesn't struggling with the concept of being a yankee, but baltimore seems like they start out hot a lot and especially play well at home early. Also, at this point i think they have the better line up with all kinds of youth and potential. Late game theatrics are always possible in Baltimore even if they're down early. Just as much so, yankees have struggled out the gate early in the past couple years.

                                                              BAL +1.5
                                                              Comment
                                                              • cocknocker
                                                                Restricted User
                                                                • 11-06-08
                                                                • 8001

                                                                #32
                                                                Finally, the Rockies came through in the first 4.5 innings. I as beginning to wonder what the hell is going on. Thanks BigMoney!
                                                                Comment
                                                                • peterpan19
                                                                  Restricted User
                                                                  • 11-02-08
                                                                  • 3377

                                                                  #33
                                                                  no writeups today just plays:
                                                                  CWS 5 Innings
                                                                  Mil (fading the big unit here)
                                                                  Cubs -1

                                                                  GL
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • mcbaseball10
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 02-11-09
                                                                    • 2866

                                                                    #34
                                                                    Originally posted by wangichu

                                                                    reds can outslug anyone at home, especially with a considerable pitching edge

                                                                    The Reds offense is abysmal this year. I am a huge Reds homer and see no spark in their lineup. I hope you are right, but would only bet because of Volquez not because "they can outslug anyone at home."
                                                                    BOL with all your picks.
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • TheLemonDropKid
                                                                      SBR MVP
                                                                      • 02-02-09
                                                                      • 1501

                                                                      #35
                                                                      Originally posted by cocknocker
                                                                      Finally, the Rockies came through in the first 4.5 innings. I as beginning to wonder what the hell is going on. Thanks BigMoney!

                                                                      Thanks BigMoney via CK!!!! Or CK via BigMoney!!! Whatever.....thank you both!
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      SBR Contests
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Top-Rated US Sportsbooks
                                                                      Collapse
                                                                      Working...