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wtf the deal with this kc line? i mean i know sale one of the best around but kc+140 vs these shitbags?Comment -
good start. not gonna lie, i found it strange that 1st 5 and gm was hardly any different and if i recall ff might have been a little lower? seems backwards for kc (i know they missing one pen guy), so i guess we shall see.. per usual when i bet tampons at home, they cant score for shit. i should probably play under any time i lean tb at home, lets be real i never lean them cause of the lineup. lol..Comment -
Any reason why in the bottom of the 9th with the lead off man on 1st you don't sacrifice a bunt and get him to 2nd?!!?! Instead you swing at it and give up an easy fly ball!!
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im sure that one has you thinking "wtf wrong with these fuks!" lol.. i really figured i would lose once sox tied it up, glad i just played it and said "fuk it" ..
i already grabbed some twinks+194 2marro.. there a lot of things to like bout that gm for the price. they prob lose but almost 2 to 1?
you gotta be itching to fade muts by now? and they dogs 2marro, lol.. i already shot a bullet at them other day, not sure i want to do anything other than wait for a loss then fade the next at this point?Comment -
22-30, -8.67U threadComment -
It been like stealing betting wacha lines thus far. Biggest problem is he keeps beating fukkin aces so the secrets prob out of the bag.. His curveball looked awesome yesterday, that had only been a project pitch for him up until this yr, he threw a few yesterday that were very waino-ish. He has incorporated a cutter also which is prob why his k-rate been little lower than Id expect as he been using it quite a bit to get quick outs. Apparently looks and has speed very similar to the change (which has always been filthy) but breaks the opposite direction late. Kid is a absolute stud who has went from having 2 pitches that so good he could get by to being a 4 pitch guy with all 4 being + pitches.
That is far from shocking, mostly expected long as his shoulder was right. Martinez on the other hand has really impressed with his newfound ability to get deep into gms. Efficiency was the only thing ever holding this kid back and thus far he has shown it. His stuff prob the nastiest on the staff, just a matter of harnessing it..grabbed cards early again as I love getting wacha and Martinez cheaper than the other 3..Comment -
Ordorrizi doesnt appear to have very good stuff. Big guy but his fastball is only 88-90mph and it has very little movement
maybe its his unorthodox mechanics that make it difficult to hit????
i cant figure it outComment -
Do the Orioles bounce back tonight after losing their last 4 games? Getting swept in Toronto. Orioles usually hit Porcello goodComment -
No plays tonight. Lean Yankees, but price is way too steep. Also like Cards, but again, too expensive now. Good numbers are long gone.Comment -
Cheers coin, took your leans in a small parlay as I was the same had no leans today. Man your record on posted leans that you haven't played must be unbelievable (don't mean to annoy you with that comment)! I know you're not a parlay gut but maybe just chuck a small 2/3 teamer in for fun? Ended up throwing all late game unders into a parlay, looked home and then something kinda weird happened in Oakland!
Hope the day of with the fam was a good one, feels good having a day off the punt I tell you!Comment -
I like the Muts tonight + 115 or up.Comment -
i grabbed nyy-103 pretty early. doubt id play now but i wouldnt want any part of muts reality check..Comment -
A winner is a winner when there's a guarantee that the winner will be a winner.
Baseball is all probabilities, no guarantees.
You answered your question yourself. Value.
Betting (especially bases) is a longterm investment, no shortterm,Comment -
sure "a winner is a winner" but thing is me nor anyone else isnt picking 100% or anything close so price has to be the determining factor to whether or not we succeed over a large amount of plays. that 20+ cent difference allows for me to be wrong far more often and still come out ahead..Comment -
Thx 2dabank, you can hate the Giants as long as you want, have no problem with it. It's only sports.
@RavensFan2k3:
To make it a little bit clearer for all readers (maybe there are guys who didn't know it, others may read over it lol):
(A) Imagine an opening line of +115. You play it 100 times with 1 u. You win it 50 times.
(B) Over the course of the day the line moves to -105. You play it 100 times with 1 u. You win it 50 times.
In both cases the same amount of winners.
(A) Profit +7.5 u.
(B) Profit -2.5 u.Comment -
wouldnt hate them if they would stop beating my team in the playoffs so im sure ya'll dont mind the hate. lol..hate a strong word anyways, im not a very emotional fan to begin with, cards only team i have any type of emotional attachment to and i try my best to ignore that, mostly doesnt kick in till playoffs at least!Comment -
I definitely understand, I guess what Im trying to say is if I like a team to win, I'm going to bet them whether they are -105 or +115 because I capped them to win unless we're talking about the line move being an indicator that it may be the losing side, but merely based off value I'm not going to not bet a team that I capped to win jusy because I missed the best lineThx 2dabank, you can hate the Giants as long as you want, have no problem with it. It's only sports.
@RavensFan2k3:
To make it a little bit clearer for all readers (maybe there are guys who didn't know it, others may read over it lol):
(A) Imagine an opening line of +115. You play it 100 times with 1 u. You win it 50 times.
(B) Over the course of the day the line moves to -105. You play it 100 times with 1 u. You win it 50 times.
In both cases the same amount of winners.
(A) Profit +7.5 u.
(B) Profit -2.5 u.Comment -
Pitching change in Cleveland....who knows what happens now. Exactly why I dont bet games early, even though I bet listed pitchersComment -
Sh!t that's going to cost me, didn't choose listed FMLComment -
IMO you can't bet with longterm success without looking at the line (not especially line movement, but at least at the line you get). But that's only my opinion and no proof or mark-down of other opinions.
What I have shown above will catch up to you longterm and then the fat's in the fire, that's at least what my experience has shown.
I never liked the idea of picking teams based on who I think I will win. I always pick teams whose chances are better than the odds. That's it. Beat this price and you make profit.
You don't need the 'best' line. You need a profitable line.
When you have odds of +135 and in the end it's +120, it doesn't matter much when the 'real probability' of the event is 50%. But when you have a line move from +115 to -105 when the 'real probability' is 50% you will have a problem when you constantly get the lower price.Comment
