on3's MLB 2015 Opening Day System Thread

[on3]

Basic rules -- if HOME team A is favored by -145 or greater in game1 of their series, they are a play. 3 game chase. A few filters:

It was shown to be profitable to play a 5/2 system, the 5/2 is indicating the units bet to win the series. The trigger is when a filtered play loses the (A) game.
No 2-game series' should be played.
After the all-star break, teams must meet either the overall .500 record test or the home record over .500 test.
Odds > -190 should be played on the RL.
The O/U 9 filter has a very strong historical record.

Last year finished at around +42 units. And the filtered bets and 5/2 just didnt generate enough plays (20 for the season) to gain any traction.

Last years thread: http://www.sportsbookreview.com/foru...em-thread.html

[imotiv8]

Awesome! Glad to see your back

[analyzer]

Thanks! Looking forward to it!

[Turfgrass]

Bookmarked and ready to go.

[hagball52]

Checking in.

[knugen]

Are we starting the system rhe same date as MLB?

[garcia991]

New to this system, there are few questions I am just wondering.

1)If we won the first game, we won't bet the series again, right?
2)If we lost the first game, and the B bet is qualified as filtered play, do we play regular system and filtered system at the same time? Or just filtered system?

thanks for helping!!

[md3324]

New to this system, there are few questions I am just wondering.

1)If we won the first game, we won't bet the series again, right?
2)If we lost the first game, and the B bet is qualified as filtered play, do we play regular system and filtered system at the same time? Or just filtered system?

thanks for helping!!

1) Correct
2) I am 99% sure....A filtered play is determined on the "A" game of the series only. The series will be considered filtered if the O/U closes at 9 or higher. If the "A" game loses then you continue the series as a regular play and a filtered play on the "B" game.
The bet on the filtered "B" game would be to win 5 units where the regular play would be to win 1 unit plus losses from the "A" game. 0N3 usually runs a labby throughout the season which will change the unit count (the way I mentioned would be the traditional method). Biggest thing about this system is the "A" games tend to win at a high rate. I'd have to guess they win somewhere between 2:1 and 3:1. The "A" games are where we make our $$$. If I'm wrong someone please correct.

[on3]

Labby will start running after the first two weeks. Until then, I am playing (A) bets as a half unit, (B) bets as one unit, (C) bets as 2 units. Filtered wil be doubled.

UPDATED for 4/5/2015
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/5/2015
(A) CHC TBD

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[knugen]

Cubs are not a play!

[dect6.0]

wow. cubs to open the season huh? big balls you have there on3

[J.M. Disciple]

checking in. Looks like no plays until the 6th. Are we using covers to determine the odds?

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/5/2015
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/5/2015
No plays today

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

wow. cubs to open the season huh? big balls you have there on3

No, plays are only official if they meet the line of -145 or higher

[bauerranch]

Thanks IM back

[crackerjack]

Awesome! Glad to see your back

Whats so special about his back? I want to see his back...

[J.M. Disciple]

A lot of juice dropped from last night. NYY was a play last night, but using covers it is currently above -145. These are the plays I got since games are starting soon.

nyy (maybe) sitting at -141 right now.
det
mil *possible filter play if O/u hits 9
was
lad
sea
oak.

On3 are you doing standard $20 unit size again so to start the season these are all $10 bets (.5u)?

[HeeluvaGuy]

Sorry to be the new guy, but I'm interested in following along this season. I think I have the basics down, but I do have one question: Are plays based on opening lines or closing lines?

Thanks and GL!

[on3]

Full update coming soon, but the first game is Detroit. Play for half unit these first two weeks.

[md3324]

0N3 are you using covers for your closing lines?

[on3]

First two weeks, play (A) bets with a half unit, (B) bet with a full unit, (C) bet with two units (all to win)

UPDATED for 4/5/2015
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/6/2015
(A) DET -161
(A) WAS -165
(A) LAD -185
(A) SEA -153
(A) OAK -153

KEEP AN EYE ON:
MIL -143, MIA -146

Filtered
none

KEEP AN EYE ON:
MIL

5/2
none

[on3]

0N3 are you using covers for your closing lines?

i'm using 5Dimes here http://www.sportsbookreview.com/betting-odds/merged/

[on3]

MIL closed at -142 and is/was a no play, MIA closed at -145 and was a play

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/7/2015
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 4-0-0; Profit: +2 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/7/2015
(B) WAS on 4/8
(B) MIA -135

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[dlunc3]

You betting just to win 1 unit on the B bets? Or betting to win 1 unit along with the amount lost on the A bet?

[dect6.0]

First two weeks, play (A) bets with a half unit, (B) bet with a full unit, (C) bet with two units (all to win)

UPDATED for 4/5/2015
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 0-0; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/6/2015
(A) DET -161
(A) WAS -165
(A) LAD -185
(A) SEA -153
(A) OAK -153

KEEP AN EYE ON:
MIL -143, MIA -146

Filtered
none

KEEP AN EYE ON:
MIL

5/2
none

UPDATED for 4/6/2015
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 4-0-0; Profit: +2 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/6/2015
(B) WAS on 4/8
(B) MIA -135

Filtered
none

5/2
none

so whats the difference in the 4-0 record and 4-2 record?

[on3]

because (A) games went 4-2 and the 2 losses arent completed series' yet. a loss in a series takes 3 games.

[J.M. Disciple]

Miami got slaughtered from the 1st. Onto our first C.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/8/2015
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 4-0-0; Profit: +2 units
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units
Current open: (-.93 units, -2.08 units)

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 0-1; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-0; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/8/2015
(B) WAS -127
(C) MIA -125

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

the first two weeks of the season are always filled with false favorites and lines havent settled. this is why we play it small until things get cooking near the end of april.


UPDATED for 4/9/2015
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 5-1-0; Profit: -2.46 units (MIA -4.53 units)
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units
Current open:

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 1-1; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-1; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/9/2015
none

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[sportsbetter21]

Are you chasing you're "A" bet or betting 2 units at what ever line the "B" game is?

[on3]

Are you chasing you're "A" bet or betting 2 units at what ever line the "B" game is?

no chasing losses the first two weeks, but there is an increased unit size. does that make sense? this is how i would recommend playing it, this is how i'm counting units, but everyone has their own comfort level.

[on3]

UPDATED for 4/10/2015
System(s) record Chase:
Regular system: 5-1-0; Profit: -2.46 units (MIA -4.53 units)
Filtered System: 0-0-0; Profit: 0 units
5/2 chase: 0-0-0; profit: 0 units
Current open:

Records: (regular, filtered, 5/2)
Game 1 (A) win = 4-2; 0-0
Game 2 (B) win = 1-1; 0-0; 0-0
Game 3 (C) win = 0-1; 0-0; 0-0

REGULAR FOR 4/10/2015
none (as of yet)

Filtered
none

5/2
none

[on3]

No plays this weekend

[J.M. Disciple]

One early game tomorrow on NYM 1:10ET.