System Integrity?

dreamjob · 09-08-10, 09:27 AM

Alright lets go phillies!

floridagolfer · 09-08-10, 10:36 AM

Originally posted by allenc85

FG - how many units are yall up??

I'm only playing a four-game chase this year, so my record has two losses. I also did not play during the first two weeks of the season (and won't play the final two or three weeks). But to answer your question, I'm currently about +45 units. (That total reflects a few instances where I didn't have enough guts to play the full amount on a few Game Ds.)

DustyDiamond · 09-08-10, 08:34 PM

How far into Sept is the system suppose to go?

gamblingisfun · 09-08-10, 10:20 PM

I really like this system and I've read every post in this thread. I looked up data for MLB teams since 2004 on the sdql website. I filtered the teams that were the highest favorite of each day. I ended up finding that there was a few streaks of rl losses that were 6 losses long. I haven't researched this whole year yet, but in the 2009 year I found 2 6 game streaks and one 7 game near the end of the season. I read that bettorbob backtested this for ten years and it either didn't lose or it only lost once I cant remember. But if the sdql lines are right over the years, then it reached 6 games several times over the years. This system is great, I just want to know why my results are different than the original backtesters. Any help would be greatly appreciated.

mminkovski · 09-08-10, 11:46 PM

Phillies rulzzzzz

We can take 1 loss per season. I personally chase 7 games max as backtesting never showed longer streak.

gamblingisfun · 09-09-10, 12:12 AM

I found a 9 game loss on may 1-9, 2008 on the highest favorite of the day. Some of those faves weren't super high, -150,-165, -170, but still the system is go with the biggest fave of the day. The 3 I found in 2009 were a 6 game from 6/10-6/15, another 6 from 8/16-8/21, and a 7 game from 9/20-9/26. Maybe the lines on the sdql site aren't the same ones that were backtested with. At a point in all those streaks the difference between the top 2 of the day was 10 cents or less, and in one case there was a tie, so the tiebreaker was the total. The higher total game lost while the lower total game would have won.

mminkovski · 09-09-10, 01:16 AM

gamblingsfun, did put a filter for at least 5 games per day?

slapshot · 09-09-10, 02:47 AM

six games on the menu today...........lad is on top of the chart........favorite by a small margin.....+ money on rl

slapshot · 09-09-10, 04:09 AM

Originally posted by gamblingisfun

I found a 9 game loss on may 1-9, 2008 on the highest favorite of the day. Some of those faves weren't super high, -150,-165, -170, but still the system is go with the biggest fave of the day. The 3 I found in 2009 were a 6 game from 6/10-6/15, another 6 from 8/16-8/21, and a 7 game from 9/20-9/26. Maybe the lines on the sdql site aren't the same ones that were backtested with. At a point in all those streaks the difference between the top 2 of the day was 10 cents or less, and in one case there was a tie, so the tiebreaker was the total. The higher total game lost while the lower total game would have won.

i have the exact same results as you for 2009, same dates same number of losses.

for 2008 begining of may i don't have 9 losses in a row........arizona was the biggest fav on opening lines on may 3rd and they won that day vs mets.

from may 1st to may 9th 2008 the teams we bet on had
five 1 run wins
one 5 runs win
three straight up losses

after that cold streak the system racked up a four game winning streak.

also the 2 x six games and the seven games losing streak in 2009 had some 1 run wins.

for 2009, my data is from playing the system.......for the 2008 data i researched the sbr website.

conclusion might be to play -1 instead for -1.5...........eat juice, take some pushes but to avoid nasty streaks.

after all these systems are only successful if you can steer clear of losses and your unit size/bankroll allows you go after a 'w' up to 6 times...then you are home safe

floridagolfer · 09-09-10, 06:16 AM

Originally posted by gamblingisfun

I found a 9 game loss on may 1-9, 2008 on the highest favorite of the day. Some of those faves weren't super high, -150,-165, -170, but still the system is go with the biggest fave of the day. The 3 I found in 2009 were a 6 game from 6/10-6/15, another 6 from 8/16-8/21, and a 7 game from 9/20-9/26. Maybe the lines on the sdql site aren't the same ones that were backtested with. At a point in all those streaks the difference between the top 2 of the day was 10 cents or less, and in one case there was a tie, so the tiebreaker was the total. The higher total game lost while the lower total game would have won.

For whatever reason, I don't have that six-game run last August; I have SF winning on Aug. 18 as a Game B winner. But I suspect some databases are slightly different because people go to different sources for their odds.

dreamjob · 09-09-10, 09:32 AM

Alright dodgers lets keep it going!

gamblingisfun · 09-09-10, 10:30 AM

Slapshot: my data has the Indians being favored over the royals at -220 for 5/3/08 and they lost 4-2.

Floridagolfer: my data has the rays over the orioles that day at -250 and they won 5-4 only by a run. And it was the C bet in the series.

I guess it all might come down to the differences in odds. Many times there were only minimal differences in the top two in a day and one won and one didn't. I should just hope to avoid one of those killstreaks.

mminkovski · 09-09-10, 11:16 PM

We agreed to use covers.com opening lines. Is that what you use for your sql queries?

gamblingisfun · 09-09-10, 11:25 PM

I don't know where sdql gets their lines from. I don't even know if their lines are opening or closing. I have questions out on other sites to people who know more than I do about that site.

gamblingisfun · 09-09-10, 11:39 PM

I think that some of the lines may be closing lines, however they say that all their lines are entered in by hand by their guy in Vegas, and the odds entered are the lines that the majority of people can get, so I suppose there is a margin of error in the data that I have.

dreamjob · 09-10-10, 12:28 AM

For Friday its close between the reds and phillies.

mminkovski · 09-10-10, 01:48 AM

Covers has Cincinnati at -245 ML and -120 RL

floridagolfer · 09-10-10, 06:51 AM

Originally posted by mminkovski

Covers has Cincinnati at -245 ML and -120 RL

Agreed. My lines have Philly at -235 and Cinci at -240.

Puda · 09-10-10, 07:18 AM

Twins

floridagolfer · 09-10-10, 08:17 AM

Originally posted by Puda

Twins

What about them?

slapshot · 09-10-10, 11:56 AM

twins aren't even close...cincy is the play tonight

Puda · 09-10-10, 05:23 PM

Originally posted by slapshot

twins aren't even close...cincy is the play tonight

twins are a lock

, carmona suks

against them.

floridagolfer · 09-10-10, 11:31 PM

Originally posted by Puda

twins are a lock

, carmona suks

against them.

Most teams that get shut out don't win.

And I'm ready for the season to end.

mminkovski · 09-11-10, 12:55 AM

It was close but we lost. C bet on Saturday, most likely Rockies with Jimenez

dreamjob · 09-11-10, 09:08 AM

Like the rockies at home. Lets go Ubaldo!

do5000 · 09-11-10, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

Most teams that get shut out don't win.

And I'm ready for the season to end.

time to move on

mminkovski · 09-12-10, 01:57 AM

Sunday play: Cincinnati Reds vs Pittsburgh Pirates
ML: -265
RL: -120
It's a D bet.

floridagolfer · 09-12-10, 04:39 AM

Originally posted by do5000

time to move on

Yeah, I might call it a season after today's game, or substantially reduce my per-series stake.

mentorbh · 09-12-10, 07:49 AM

I like the Yankees(NewYork) Moseley +145 for today.

teecee · 09-12-10, 08:29 AM

Originally posted by mentorbh

I like the Yankees(NewYork) Moseley +145 for today.

that's cool, but how does this play have anything to do with the system being discussed in this thread?

dreamjob · 09-12-10, 09:53 AM

Come on reds lets end this BS!

mminkovski · 09-12-10, 11:40 PM

Monday biggest favorite is split between Cardinals and Braves. Let's wait to see more lines for Cards game

dreamjob · 09-12-10, 11:56 PM

Geez onto an E bet. My next win I will shut it down for the season just too hectic.

mminkovski · 09-13-10, 04:08 AM

Actually as per covers.com opening lines Boston Red Sox are ML -185 and is highest so far

mminkovski · 09-14-10, 01:03 AM

Tuesday play: St.Louis Cardinals
ML: -230
RL: +100