System Integrity?

do5000 · 05-09-09, 10:58 PM

the system always goes by the highest OPENING line. so its HOU for sunday.
just click on the highest 2 or 3 game matchup links and it shows the opening line.

Slanina · 05-10-09, 01:55 AM

Unbelievable. I just got home from the bar and checked my account and it showed I never placed the bet. I placed it at my girls house and her computer is a joke. I thought it went through and all day I thought I had won. I'm buying a PDA phone now just for those situations. Christ.

Luckily, it was a 1 unit bet only. If this had happened on game 3 or 4 and they won. I think that computer would've been introduced to henry the hammer.

trinitiy · 05-10-09, 06:25 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

Unbelievable. I just got home from the bar and checked my account and it showed I never placed the bet. I placed it at my girls house and her computer is a joke. I thought it went through and all day I thought I had won. I'm buying a PDA phone now just for those situations. Christ.

Luckily, it was a 1 unit bet only. If this had happened on game 3 or 4 and they won. I think that computer would've been introduced to henry the hammer.

PDA sounds like a good idea, i might invest as well in one.

trinitiy · 05-10-09, 06:28 AM

wow, i got Hou at +140

ploben · 05-10-09, 07:55 AM

Originally posted by trinitiy

wow, i got Hou at +140

Same here. Not sure why the bottom dropped out after it opened as the highest fav. But makes for a very small A bet.

HOU +140 RL

do5000 · 05-10-09, 10:16 AM

i got hou at -135. covers says oswalt might be injured, i hope that doesnt affect the game.

ps slanina, maybe your bet wasnt processed cause you had Baba Booey as the starting pitcher.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PVMjvs0yttY

Marvelboy · 05-10-09, 10:48 AM

My book opened with the mets as fav, and ive looked now and its the D-Backs, but you all seem to be on houston

bigcountry · 05-10-09, 11:13 AM

hey guys

I really like what you all are doing with this thing it looks very interesting. Two quick ?'s though. First just so i'm clear you don't necessarily chase the same team day in day out unless they are the highest money line day in and out correct? 2nd what do you do if there are two team with the same money line on any given day?

Thanks,
BC

do5000 · 05-10-09, 11:31 AM

hi bc,

you dont chase the same team, so chase the highest opening fav. sometimes it will be the same team, but it goes by the lines only.

we never solved the issue of what happens if 2 teams open at the same number.
i would suggest whichever game has the highest total.

bigcountry · 05-10-09, 11:40 AM

Originally posted by do5000

hi bc,

you dont chase the same team, so chase the highest opening fav. sometimes it will be the same team, but it goes by the lines only.

we never solved the issue of what happens if 2 teams open at the same number.
i would suggest whichever game has the highest total.

Thanks for the info. i'm trying it today with Arizona i think. If this really works and i think it will man in this economy if i could just win 3 to 4 k by sept finances would be looking a lot better.

coreygman · 05-10-09, 01:08 PM

I just got on the Astros, +140 in my book too! risk 30 to win 42!

do5000 · 05-10-09, 01:24 PM

pretty good start so far...

paw · 05-10-09, 01:45 PM

Mets are the play for Monday May 11...............I got them at + 123 RL they are - 181 ML at pinnacle.

ploben · 05-10-09, 01:46 PM

I believe the last time we had a tie in opening MLs some of us took the higher total and some of us took the bigger fav. on the RL. I think both teams won anyway.

The scare to Oswalt really drove the HOU line down and allowed us to play for a discount today. Good start 3-0 in the 2nd

paw · 05-10-09, 02:59 PM

Has anyone been able to back-test this system more then 2 years ?????

Also if you had started in April you would be just fine,no reason to start in May.I double checked the past April"s you would be good to go.

floridagolfer · 05-10-09, 03:46 PM

Originally posted by paw

Mets are the play for Monday May 11...............I got them at + 123 RL they are - 181 ML at pinnacle.

I don't know about others, but I'm inclined not to play at all on a day like Monday, when there are only four games scheduled. Being the day's biggest favorite doesn't mean the same thing as opposed to when there's a full slate of games. But to each his own.

trinitiy · 05-10-09, 05:26 PM

Originally posted by floridagolfer

I don't know about others, but I'm inclined not to play at all on a day like Monday, when there are only four games scheduled. Being the day's biggest favorite doesn't mean the same thing as opposed to when there's a full slate of games. But to each his own.

thaTS a good idea bro, ima set out wit you.

ploben · 05-10-09, 05:46 PM

I really don't think that's how the system is intended to be played. We have had board favorites one day where the team's ML was only -165...as opposed to NYM tomorrow at -185 or so.

NYM are the play tomorrow.

Marvelboy · 05-10-09, 06:47 PM

Looks like the D-backs are going to obliged aswell, well done all, i know some were on different teams tonight but looks like all 3 "favs" won today so another series cashed

coreygman · 05-10-09, 08:07 PM

Well this is a pretty big line, and has a chance to be the biggest one, even if there were all games being played.

Here is what my book says now, and its +110 on the run line... How about you guys?

NYM JO SANTANA-L -200 u7 +105 -1½ +110

ploben · 05-10-09, 09:35 PM

Same @ Bookmaker

aneurysm00 · 05-10-09, 10:30 PM

Here is my progress so far. I'm betting on the -1 RL. On few occassions, I've not always picked the biggest fav and I've missed a few days as well as I couldn't get the bets in time. So far so good.

Attached Files

mangueras · 05-11-09, 12:57 AM

pretty interesting ,i will like to give it a try .

Vincepcion · 05-11-09, 03:24 AM

nvm
nice system

floridagolfer · 05-11-09, 06:23 AM

Originally posted by ploben

I really don't think that's how the system is intended to be played. We have had board favorites one day where the team's ML was only -165...as opposed to NYM tomorrow at -185 or so.

NYM are the play tomorrow.

Who knows how the system was "intended" to be played? I'm not saying the Mets don't look like a solid choice; they do. But with all the discussion we've had over a couple of issues, I'm not sure it was anyone's intent to look at the day's biggest favorite in a pool of eight possible teams the same way you do when there are 30 possible teams. That looks to be a bit illogical.

do5000 · 05-11-09, 09:41 AM

i think its less a matter of whats intended and more of matter of whats been proven. its possible by not playing days when there are only a few games, you increase your profits. but its also possible you decrease.

the only methods that have been tested so far have been to bet the biggest fav for each day.

ploben · 05-11-09, 12:16 PM

Originally posted by do5000

i think its less a matter of whats intended and more of matter of whats been proven. its possible by not playing days when there are only a few games, you increase your profits. but its also possible you decrease.

the only methods that have been tested so far have been to bet the biggest fav for each day.

I like this. Well put.

I can see if we had a smattering of -140 or -160 teams but we had a team open well above that and has moved to over -200 since so have it be 15 games played today or 5 this is a huge favorite on the board.

billdo75 · 05-11-09, 03:21 PM

I agree. A -200 favorite would probably be near the top of a 15-team field, so they're as good a pick as any other big favorite. After spending most of my weekend looking at different baseball systems, I settled on this one. I love simple systems

I especially liked the results on the 1-run hedge. Yesterday was my first play and Arizona brought home the bacon.

NYM -198 / -1½ +110

Best of luck, everyone!

owll52 · 05-11-09, 07:04 PM

Originally posted by aneurysm00

Here is my progress so far. I'm betting on the -1 RL. On few occassions, I've not always picked the biggest fav and I've missed a few days as well as I couldn't get the bets in time. So far so good.

Where do you find a -1 R/L?

paw · 05-11-09, 09:23 PM

Once again for Tuesday May 12th Mets are the play........................ Money line - 180 Run line + 181 ................

paw · 05-11-09, 09:48 PM

SORRY DISREGARD THAT ABOVE POST..................

The play is AZ Tuesday may 12th The opended up at - 210 Money line and + 105 Run line.............

Sorry for that mistake.................

This will be game # 2 in the chase as we lose with the Mets today.

Slanina · 05-11-09, 10:19 PM

I didn't play the system today, but it wasn't due to a lack of games to judge. I didn't play because I was too lazy to bet on it. It doesn't matter how many games there are on a given day, especially in this case. Santana was pitching and he was already the favorite on three other games when there were 10-15 games that day. So the argument about not betting due to a lack of games holds no merit.

bigcountry · 05-11-09, 11:04 PM

Originally posted by paw

SORRY DISREGARD THAT ABOVE POST..................

The play is AZ Tuesday may 12th The opended up at - 210 Money line and + 105 Run line.............

Sorry for that mistake.................

This will be game # 2 in the chase as we lose with the Mets today.

playn the dbacks tom but i hate playn them.

floridagolfer · 05-12-09, 06:17 AM

Originally posted by Slanina

I didn't play the system today, but it wasn't due to a lack of games to judge. I didn't play because I was too lazy to bet on it. It doesn't matter how many games there are on a given day, especially in this case. Santana was pitching and he was already the favorite on three other games when there were 10-15 games that day. So the argument about not betting due to a lack of games holds no merit.

It's fair enough to have jumped on Santana on Monday because the odds on the Mets were similar to what you'd find on a full schedule, but I can't wait until the day in August or September when there's only two games scheduled and both involve last-place teams 20 games below .500.

do5000 · 05-12-09, 07:09 AM

today's play is COL, not ARI.
COL opened -165 and ARI opened at -125.