System Integrity?

[coreygman]

Nice win today! Good Work Cards!

ya I like the idea of starting out higher and going lower on bets, that kinda what I am doing now, since I have a max of $750 on my book.

[Slanina]

i'm not using the same system as everybody else, so my units change from bet to bet.
i am still chasing, but chasing a win, not a specific amount.

i have a base amount ($2 or $3 or $5 to start) and bet that. lets say $2.
if i win (whatever the profit), i take it and bet the same amount on the next game.
if i lose game A, i bet the B game so my profit is A bet + 25%. if i win, i start over with $2.
if i lose, i bet the C game to win my B bet +25%.

so for me, units are wins, not any specific profit amount.
the way i do it (very small stakes) allows me to manage my bankroll in a way i feel comfortable.
no matter what the odds are for game A, my loss will be the same. the profits will never be big, but they will be more frequent and consistent.

obviously im going to win a fraction of what everybody else will at the end (especially cause for A bets im using RL -1).

to be honest, i want to see if doing this, in a very conservative way, i can still beat my stock broker.
if i can make 50% (tax free) in 6 months of baseball, the nasdaq can suck it.

So game #1 would be a profit of $2

Game #2 would be an overall profit of .50?

Game #3 would be an overall loss of $1.38?

So once it hits game 3 and so on you would take a hit? Did I get it right?

[Slanina]

Nice win today! Good Work Cards!

ya I like the idea of starting out higher and going lower on bets, that kinda what I am doing now, since I have a max of $750 on my book.

I can't seem to get a pattern to match up as of now. I'm still plugging in different figures for a given game. If and when I do I'll post the percent to bet so everyone can know what to bet based on their unit. Assuming they decide to do it.

[coreygman]

I can't seem to get a pattern to match up as of now. I'm still plugging in different figures for a given game. If and when I do I'll post the percent to bet so everyone can know what to bet based on their unit. Assuming they decide to do it.

Well what max are you working with?

[Slanina]

Well what max are you working with?

I have $750 in there now. But I'm cashing out 300 soon. So I'll be forced to drop my unit bet. I am currently chasing $10.

[do5000]

sorta. the $2 is not the profit, its the risk.
the risk is always the same for the A bet.


if Game A wins, sometime i'll make $1.05 profit, sometimes ill make $0.80. depends on the odds for that game (which will always be worse cause im using -1).
for game B, ive lost $2 and therefore make the bet whatever will give me A +25% ($2.50).
so if its +100 i'd need to bet $2.50 to get back my A bet plus 25%.
if i lose that, i bet to win $2 (a bet) plus $2.50 (b bet) plus 25% for a total of $5.63. that means i need to win $5.63 profit.

the difference is that after bet A i go to RL -1.5 (for the rest of that chase), so the odds are normally + and it wont take me as much to win back the A bet amount.

after reading this, im pretty sure ive confused myself. so i have no idea if this makes sense now.

[Slanina]

sorta. the $2 is not the profit, its the risk.
the risk is always the same for the A bet.


if Game A wins, sometime i'll make $1.05 profit, sometimes ill make $0.80. depends on the odds for that game (which will always be worse cause im using -1).
for game B, ive lost $2 and therefore make the bet whatever will give me A +25% ($2.50).
so if its +100 i'd need to bet $2.50 to get back my A bet plus 25%.
if i lose that, i bet to win $2 (a bet) plus $2.50 (b bet) plus 25% for a total of $5.63. that means i need to win $5.63 profit.

the difference is that after bet A i go to RL -1.5 (for the rest of that chase), so the odds are normally + and it wont take me as much to win back the A bet amount.

after reading this, im pretty sure ive confused myself. so i have no idea if this makes sense now.

I think I got it. That's a lot of math if your bet history wasn't viewable. I forgot you mentioned you do the 1 run strategy for game #1's.

[do5000]

very good point. ill try to put up the past week or two of bets so its clearer.

[johncrud]

For those people who have a massive bankroll and thinking about making several bucks, why don't you bet on -10,000 live money line. for 400 bucks, you make 4 bucks because it is 99% sure win. it is considered cheap compared to 6 game or more ML chase. at 6th game, you will be easily end up in thousands by chasing to win several bucks

i was looking at live betting of the cleveland at matchbook.. clev ats is -12.5. clev was up 31 points at 4th quarter with 8 min left... so that is pretty much a sure win right there. i rather bet that than chasing 6 games.

instead of risking 444(at even money) to win 4 bucks for a 6 game chase... alot of times, you will be spending alot more at higher juice.

[Slanina]

For those people who have a massive bankroll and thinking about making several bucks, why don't you bet on -10,000 live money line. for 400 bucks, you make 4 bucks because it is 99% sure win. it is considered cheap compared to 6 game or more ML chase. at 6th game, you will be easily end up in thousands by chasing to win several bucks

i was looking at live betting of the cleveland at matchbook.. clev ats is -12.5. clev was up 31 points at 4th quarter with 8 min left... so that is pretty much a sure win right there. i rather bet that than chasing 6 games.

instead of risking 444(at even money) to win 4 bucks for a 6 game chase... alot of times, you will be spending alot more at higher juice.

It's for some and not for others. That's all. I'm not saying it's flawless. After all it's a chase system. The goal is to get enough to when/if a streak happens this year we won't lose any money out of our pockets.

[ploben]

LAD tomorrow, at home, with the 5-0 Chad Billingsley. Opened @ -205 and with + money RL at the moment.

I am very excite!

[ploben]

Called in sick today and going down to the casino to play a little poker. Because of the late game I can hold out booking it till this evening. Hopefully nothing crazy happens with it.

[do5000]

lets hope they dont blow another 6 run lead....

[coreygman]

For those people who have a massive bankroll and thinking about making several bucks, why don't you bet on -10,000 live money line. for 400 bucks, you make 4 bucks because it is 99% sure win. it is considered cheap compared to 6 game or more ML chase. at 6th game, you will be easily end up in thousands by chasing to win several bucks

i was looking at live betting of the cleveland at matchbook.. clev ats is -12.5. clev was up 31 points at 4th quarter with 8 min left... so that is pretty much a sure win right there. i rather bet that than chasing 6 games.

instead of risking 444(at even money) to win 4 bucks for a 6 game chase... alot of times, you will be spending alot more at higher juice.

I don't think you understand how it works, we are making more there 5 or 6 bucks profit.

[coreygman]

I see a +105 run line on my book, what you guys seeing?


LOS BILLNGSLEY-R -205 u8 -120 -1½ +105

Bet placed. Risking 30 to win 32.

I am going to the Casino too! Later this afternoon also after I get off work!

[do5000]

i'm getting +110 (+114 at pinnacle).
covers had LAD at -201 earlier, now its at -191. i'm going to wait and see if it gets better after lunch.

either way, tonights game looks pretty solid.

[do5000]

d'oh!
waited and its down to +100. just placed it now.

[coreygman]

I see its at +115 on betjamaica right now...

[ploben]

+120 Bookmaker

Never caught a colder rope a cards in my life. Oh well...looking to make it back tonight.

[Slanina]

+110 at Bodog right now. I'm booking it.

[corona]

lost A bet
B bet is mets tomorrow... -170 ml... runline is +120 at bookmaker

can double up the day with yankees (-160) or dodgers (-153) if you feel like it.

[Marvelboy]

Can someone tell me what the SF moneyline was against the Dodgers last night?

[Vincepcion]

Can someone tell me what the SF moneyline was against the Dodgers last night?

Matchbook had +185 which was prob the best line you could get

[Marvelboy]

Thanks mate :-)

[ploben]

NYM are the play today, opening kinda low. I have -180 @ vegas insider and -164 at covers. Either way they are the big favorite.

NYM +115 RL (Bookmaker)

[coreygman]

Looks like the Mets for me too. I am getting +115 right now and going to lock it in!

NYM J MAINE -R -180u9 -115 -1½ +115

[Marvelboy]

looking good for another series win here


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Ive started making a log of what would happen if you did the same bet but on the opposition (biggest dog) doing a chase system, the thing is when we lose a bet on this system most of the time it because the teams loses not cos they win by only win by one,but i only started this 3 days ago would be good to go over the whole season and see if it is profitble.

the last one would have been a 3 game chase with Philly, Pits and SF betting £100 a time so the out going was £700 but the return on the last game was £1140 - £700 staked giving us £440 profit in one chase, does this seem stupid or has anyone already tested this chase system?

[do5000]

hi marvel,

are you tracking if the dog won or dog +1.5?

[Slanina]

I think you're missing the point here. The basic premise is "can the biggest favorite of the day lose 6 games in a row?"

The short answer is NO! At least in the test period of 2008.

It wouldn't make any difference at which point you jumped into the sequence.......starting later would simply reduce your overall winnings. As long as the basic premise holds true the MORE wagers you make the more you'll eventually win.

Winning sequeces include:
1 10-gm winning streak
1 9-gm
1 7-gm
1 6-gm
1 5-gm
4 3-gm

Therefore, if you were to take the biggest dog, you would've had a 10 game chase. One 9 game chase and so on. So it wouldn't work.

[trinitiy]

looking good for another series win here


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Ive started making a log of what would happen if you did the same bet but on the opposition (biggest dog) doing a chase system, the thing is when we lose a bet on this system most of the time it because the teams loses not cos they win by only win by one,but i only started this 3 days ago would be good to go over the whole season and see if it is profitble.

the last one would have been a 3 game chase with Philly, Pits and SF betting £100 a time so the out going was £700 but the return on the last game was £1140 - £700 staked giving us £440 profit in one chase, does this seem stupid or has anyone already tested this chase system?

- 10-1 mets baby!

[Slanina]

I'm definitely going to figure out a pattern now for Game #1's and #2s. The chase on these games have been the majority of our wins.

[do5000]

tomorrow's play is HOU, which opened at -185.

[ploben]

I've been chasing $10 so I think now that May is swinging I think I will start chasing higher and stepping down.

Game 1 - $20
Game 2 - $15
Game 3 - $10
Game 4 - $8
Game 5 - $5

Something like that.

[corona]

doubled up with milwaukee this afternoon. i like this system.

where do you get the opening lines? covers.com has the mets as the biggest favorite right now.

[trinitiy]

looks like Arizona or Houston 2morrow hellas...