System Integrity?

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  • do5000
    SBR Wise Guy
    • 06-06-08
    • 853

    #666
    managed to squeeze +110 out of sportsinteraction.
    Comment
    • johncrud
      SBR MVP
      • 04-06-09
      • 1322

      #667
      corymen--- if you bet to win 30 bucks for each series, wouldn't your profit be 300 bucks since you won 10 series already.

      so i am not sure why your profit is only 160 bucks


      have anyone tried the same system for NHL RL? I have calculated each potential loss to be 7-10 units. I am not sure how hard it is to beat teams by 2 points. However, the RL is looking very goood.. something its like 250+ for RL. maybe people would take some time to backtrack the record for it. i started my 5 game chase after 4 games failing to hit RL.
      Comment
      • ploben
        SBR Wise Guy
        • 01-09-09
        • 527

        #668
        Jumped to +115 on Bookmaker...damn
        Comment
        • Slanina
          SBR MVP
          • 01-21-09
          • 3827

          #669
          Originally posted by johncrud
          corymen--- if you bet to win 30 bucks for each series, wouldn't your profit be 300 bucks since you won 10 series already.

          so i am not sure why your profit is only 160 bucks


          have anyone tried the same system for NHL RL? I have calculated each potential loss to be 7-10 units. I am not sure how hard it is to beat teams by 2 points. However, the RL is looking very goood.. something its like 250+ for RL. maybe people would take some time to backtrack the record for it. i started my 5 game chase after 4 games failing to hit RL.
          I'm guessing it's because of the first chase. It went 6 games. He's probably not doing a true double right now. Which I'm thinking of doing since the majority of the chases end with game #1 and #2. May shrink my bet profit wise, if those two were to lose.
          Comment
          • Slanina
            SBR MVP
            • 01-21-09
            • 3827

            #670
            Originally posted by ploben
            Jumped to +115 on Bookmaker...damn
            Nice. I only got mine at even money at bodog. As long as they win it's all the same. This is what i tell myself to feel better.
            Comment
            • Slanina
              SBR MVP
              • 01-21-09
              • 3827

              #671
              LT Profits provided a solid link to the game in his thread. Here is the link to watch the game.

              Channel 1

              Comment
              • ploben
                SBR Wise Guy
                • 01-09-09
                • 527

                #672
                Video not found...o well
                Comment
                • Slanina
                  SBR MVP
                  • 01-21-09
                  • 3827

                  #673
                  Originally posted by ploben
                  Video not found...o well
                  Download NEXDEF plugin. Takes all but 3 seconds. They provide the link there. Channel 2 is the seattle/royals game if anyone cares about that game. It's in HD. Amazing quality.
                  Comment
                  • Slanina
                    SBR MVP
                    • 01-21-09
                    • 3827

                    #674
                    It appears I jinxed it, because now it's not working for me. But the royals game still is. What the shit...
                    Comment
                    • do5000
                      SBR Wise Guy
                      • 06-06-08
                      • 853

                      #675
                      great link!

                      just tried it (after the download) and it works great even here in exotic canada.
                      Comment
                      • Slanina
                        SBR MVP
                        • 01-21-09
                        • 3827

                        #676
                        Originally posted by do5000
                        great link!

                        just tried it (after the download) and it works great even here in exotic canada.

                        You must've stolen my feed! It still isn't working for me lol. I had to use my backup source to watch it. It's not in HD like that one is, but I'm watching it once again.


                        Btw, keep that link in your address bar. There are games on it everyday.
                        Comment
                        • ploben
                          SBR Wise Guy
                          • 01-09-09
                          • 527

                          #677
                          Dumbass...didnt read about the pluging...lol. Thanks guys I'll give it a shot.
                          Comment
                          • ploben
                            SBR Wise Guy
                            • 01-09-09
                            • 527

                            #678
                            Sweet nectar!!! WTG LT
                            Comment
                            • do5000
                              SBR Wise Guy
                              • 06-06-08
                              • 853

                              #679
                              NOW we're cookin!

                              that link kicks ass
                              Comment
                              • ploben
                                SBR Wise Guy
                                • 01-09-09
                                • 527

                                #680
                                Nice inning. Cards getting plunked left and right
                                Comment
                                • paw
                                  SBR Sharp
                                  • 05-03-09
                                  • 445

                                  #681
                                  Let me ask everyone here something.

                                  Why would you stop at a 6 game chase ???? If you are getting + money most of the time who cares ???

                                  In reality how games could it really go before you win ???? I would be willing to bet its never been past 10 GAMES.

                                  Think about it,you are taking the highest ML play on the board every day.The bookies arent going to be wrong for very long.

                                  I think based on what I am seeing the chase could extend outward to a couple of more games and you would still be safe.

                                  Any inputt on that ??????

                                  Thanks

                                  PAW
                                  Comment
                                  • ploben
                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                    • 01-09-09
                                    • 527

                                    #682
                                    Any chase system paw...it all points back to bankroll and ho wmuch you are willing to risk for x units you are chasing.
                                    Comment
                                    • Slanina
                                      SBR MVP
                                      • 01-21-09
                                      • 3827

                                      #683
                                      Originally posted by paw
                                      Let me ask everyone here something.

                                      Why would you stop at a 6 game chase ???? If you are getting + money most of the time who cares ???

                                      In reality how games could it really go before you win ???? I would be willing to bet its never been past 10 GAMES.

                                      Think about it,you are taking the highest ML play on the board every day.The bookies arent going to be wrong for very long.

                                      I think based on what I am seeing the chase could extend outward to a couple of more games and you would still be safe.

                                      Any inputt on that ??????

                                      Thanks

                                      PAW
                                      10 games would cost you your house on the 10th bet lol. Just 10 bucks would be 10 20 40 80 160 320 640 1280 2520 5040. That is a total of $10,110 needed as a bankroll just for 10 bucks. Which is even money and we all know you barely get 1 game with even money let alone 10 in a row. If you had 10,110 as a bankroll and were willing to win just 10 per win. Yes, you would probably never lose.

                                      I could probably afford doing it for $1. But that would be like 65 bucks in 4-5 months.
                                      Comment
                                      • do5000
                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                        • 06-06-08
                                        • 853

                                        #684
                                        if you had unlimited bankroll and your book had unlimited bet sizes, i agree.
                                        but at some point youre going to hit a wall. even if you were a billionaire, your book would cut you off at some point.
                                        i do agree if you kept your best small enough you could probably go to 7 or 8 bets and win in the end.

                                        Anybody care to test how many times a 7 game chase lost?
                                        Comment
                                        • paw
                                          SBR Sharp
                                          • 05-03-09
                                          • 445

                                          #685
                                          Let me share a realtive STAT with everyone on this thread. Over a 2 years period 2007,2008 MLB season the highest Money line favorite from day to day and inculding days were there 2 teams that had the highest ML that is only 1 time went to 5 games in which the favorite lost in a row that was July 16-21st on 2007 and 4 times that year also and 3 times twice further then that the highest ML teams always wins within 1-2 games and covers the -1.5 RL Quite often as everyone knows already.

                                          In 2008 season the Highest ML line team went to a 4 game lose only one time and two 3 game loses twice and thats it total......................

                                          Point is on the highest ML line played everyday at the -1.5 line I cant see it going past 8- 10 games total.

                                          How could it really fail past that ????? I think a 10 game chase would be more then suffient long-term based on what I HAVE SEEN.

                                          I went back 2 years on SBR using the opening lines.................

                                          Hope this helps................

                                          PAW
                                          Comment
                                          • ploben
                                            SBR Wise Guy
                                            • 01-09-09
                                            • 527

                                            #686
                                            I thought stats were run and there was a 6 game chase last year in June>?
                                            Comment
                                            • Slanina
                                              SBR MVP
                                              • 01-21-09
                                              • 3827

                                              #687
                                              Originally posted by ScreaminPain
                                              First, let me preface this with a disclaimer as to EXACT accuracy.

                                              I've gone thru 2008 from May 1st thru Aug. 31st. I used opening lines and rounded to the dollar. In 2 instances the game that included "largest favorite" for that day was postponed due to weather, so I used the 2nd largest fav.

                                              Results were 121 plays
                                              1 6-game chase
                                              1 5-game chase
                                              6 4-game chases
                                              7 3-game chases
                                              **- the rest were either 1 or 2 game chases.

                                              Aug. 31st ended up +65.6 units

                                              Some interesting facts. During entire mo. of Aug. you had to lay odds on the run line....in one case -155 (yikes). In the month of May only 9 plays were at (-) money with the largest lay being -115 twice. Aug. had NO chases longer than 2 games.

                                              Inherent with chases, is the fact you'll need to lay a big number to get back previous losses. The largest amount needed was for the single 6 game chase in July. If you were using $10 units, a lay of $327 was required......figure your own value if you chose different units.

                                              It's apparent that this method will work, but of course, ALL chases will work if you have the bankroll. I guess it's up to individual preferences to determine if the reward is worth the risk.

                                              This was a pain in the butt to compile, however it may answer some questions. As always, good luck with you action.
                                              These were the stats for 2008.
                                              Comment
                                              • Slanina
                                                SBR MVP
                                                • 01-21-09
                                                • 3827

                                                #688
                                                Originally posted by paw
                                                Let me share a realtive STAT with everyone on this thread. Over a 2 years period 2007,2008 MLB season the highest Money line favorite from day to day and inculding days were there 2 teams that had the highest ML that is only 1 time went to 5 games in which the favorite lost in a row that was July 16-21st on 2007 and 4 times that year also and 3 times twice further then that the highest ML teams always wins within 1-2 games and covers the -1.5 RL Quite often as everyone knows already.

                                                In 2008 season the Highest ML line team went to a 4 game lose only one time and two 3 game loses twice and thats it total......................

                                                Point is on the highest ML line played everyday at the -1.5 line I cant see it going past 8- 10 games total.

                                                How could it really fail past that ????? I think a 10 game chase would be more then suffient long-term based on what I HAVE SEEN.

                                                I went back 2 years on SBR using the opening lines.................

                                                Hope this helps................

                                                PAW
                                                I think you missed our point. A 10 game chase would require a really large bankroll. We are not arguing the fact that a 10 game chase would probably never lose, but the reward would be so minimual that it's completely useless to do. Unless your bankroll was in the 10's of thousands and you were able toplace wagers directly at vegas for the big bets. Most books only allow a certain amount wagered on each game.
                                                Comment
                                                • Slanina
                                                  SBR MVP
                                                  • 01-21-09
                                                  • 3827

                                                  #689
                                                  Originally posted by paw
                                                  Let me ask everyone here something.

                                                  Why would you stop at a 6 game chase ???? If you are getting + money most of the time who cares ???

                                                  In reality how games could it really go before you win ???? I would be willing to bet its never been past 10 GAMES.

                                                  Think about it,you are taking the highest ML play on the board every day.The bookies arent going to be wrong for very long.

                                                  I think based on what I am seeing the chase could extend outward to a couple of more games and you would still be safe.

                                                  Any inputt on that ??????

                                                  Thanks

                                                  PAW
                                                  This is a rare occurence. Today is only the 2nd time I've gotten even or plus money out of 20 bets. It's usually around -115. Average a -115 line over 10 games for $10 per win and see how much more the 10,110 bankroll needed increases.
                                                  Comment
                                                  • do5000
                                                    SBR Wise Guy
                                                    • 06-06-08
                                                    • 853

                                                    #690
                                                    it was argued earlier that a 6 game ML chase has never lost.

                                                    probably true, but your bankroll would need to be massive as you probably couldnt get odds better than -160 and in some cases you'd be paying -300.
                                                    Comment
                                                    • paw
                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                      • 05-03-09
                                                      • 445

                                                      #691
                                                      I DONT Disagree a Money line chase would be thru the Roof in regards to what you had to lay.I can tell you this thu if you look for the highest Money line game daily and track it and once it has lost 2 or you could go 3 loses in a row its going to hit on THE NEXT Game or at the latest the 2nd game.

                                                      That favorite Money line system could be a large winner if played with Strict displine.

                                                      Getting back the Run-line chase I think someoneshould look at the top 2 or 3 Highest money line games daily I would think the chase would work just as well,I do realize that was spoken about earlier in this thread.

                                                      Sbr has all the lines for the last 2 years on everything.

                                                      I think somebody could find some very intresting Stats..........................

                                                      PAW
                                                      Comment
                                                      • Slanina
                                                        SBR MVP
                                                        • 01-21-09
                                                        • 3827

                                                        #692
                                                        Originally posted by paw
                                                        I DONT Disagree a Money line chase would be thru the Roof in regards to what you had to lay.I can tell you this thu if you look for the highest Money line game daily and track it and once it has lost 2 or you could go 3 loses in a row its going to hit on THE NEXT Game or at the latest the 2nd game.

                                                        That favorite Money line system could be a large winner if played with Strict displine.

                                                        Getting back the Run-line chase I think someoneshould look at the top 2 or 3 Highest money line games daily I would think the chase would work just as well,I do realize that was spoken about earlier in this thread.

                                                        Sbr has all the lines for the last 2 years on everything.

                                                        I think somebody could find some very intresting Stats..........................

                                                        PAW
                                                        I actually implement this already. I only do half of my chase bet because the lines are so high and I don't have money if the chase were to continue to a game 6. I start after game 3. Which has only occured once.

                                                        Quite easy to keep track of considering the games for the system require the largest Moneyline favorite each day.
                                                        Comment
                                                        • ploben
                                                          SBR Wise Guy
                                                          • 01-09-09
                                                          • 527

                                                          #693
                                                          Cards win it! May has been good. 4-3
                                                          Comment
                                                          • Slanina
                                                            SBR MVP
                                                            • 01-21-09
                                                            • 3827

                                                            #694
                                                            Good game guys! I'm going to crunch some numbers and see if we can maximize our profits while not risking more. Considering more than half of the wins come from game #1 or #2.
                                                            Comment
                                                            • ploben
                                                              SBR Wise Guy
                                                              • 01-09-09
                                                              • 527

                                                              #695
                                                              Maybe start to chase like $20 on game 1, then $15, then $10
                                                              Comment
                                                              • do5000
                                                                SBR Wise Guy
                                                                • 06-06-08
                                                                • 853

                                                                #696
                                                                i've tried to mix the idea of the ML and RL combination bets to get a rl -1 (push on a 1 run win).
                                                                one of my books offers -1 rl, so that makes it easier.
                                                                i'm sticking with betting RL -1 on the A bets. little more safety and a little less payout.

                                                                i'm also trying a way to figure out how much you can extend your chase per unit won.
                                                                ie after a certain number of wins, do you have enough to chase 7 games if necessary?
                                                                im guessing if i won 20 times i could safely go to 7 or 8 games on the same bankroll.
                                                                Comment
                                                                • Slanina
                                                                  SBR MVP
                                                                  • 01-21-09
                                                                  • 3827

                                                                  #697
                                                                  Originally posted by ploben
                                                                  Maybe start to chase like $20 on game 1, then $15, then $10

                                                                  I was thinking around 13 and 13 on first two. Then 10 on the 3rd game. Then drop to 7, 5, and even. Trying to balance it out so the amount wagered is pretty close to the same as if you were betting for a 10 profit straight through. Obviously, you won't win much on games 4,5,6. But by far the majority of chases end before it even gets to game 4. So overall you would definitely increase your profit using this strategy. Just need to devise a pattern to get the figures to match up.
                                                                  Comment
                                                                  • Slanina
                                                                    SBR MVP
                                                                    • 01-21-09
                                                                    • 3827

                                                                    #698
                                                                    Originally posted by do5000
                                                                    i've tried to mix the idea of the ML and RL combination bets to get a rl -1 (push on a 1 run win).
                                                                    one of my books offers -1 rl, so that makes it easier.
                                                                    i'm sticking with betting RL -1 on the A bets. little more safety and a little less payout.

                                                                    i'm also trying a way to figure out how much you can extend your chase per unit won.
                                                                    ie after a certain number of wins, do you have enough to chase 7 games if necessary?
                                                                    im guessing if i won 20 times i could safely go to 7 or 8 games on the same bankroll.
                                                                    If you don't mind me asking, a unit to you = ?
                                                                    Comment
                                                                    • coreygman
                                                                      SBR Sharp
                                                                      • 01-18-09
                                                                      • 325

                                                                      #699
                                                                      Originally posted by johncrud
                                                                      corymen--- if you bet to win 30 bucks for each series, wouldn't your profit be 300 bucks since you won 10 series already.

                                                                      so i am not sure why your profit is only 160 bucks


                                                                      have anyone tried the same system for NHL RL? I have calculated each potential loss to be 7-10 units. I am not sure how hard it is to beat teams by 2 points. However, the RL is looking very goood.. something its like 250+ for RL. maybe people would take some time to backtrack the record for it. i started my 5 game chase after 4 games failing to hit RL.

                                                                      True, but when I posted my profit I was in a chase, and down some money at the time.

                                                                      and after we had our 6 game chase i changed the way I bet a bit, I start with 30, then after the 1st game chase I move it down to $15 until we win again, so I don't have to go into the $1,000's

                                                                      Get what I am saying? After the win today I am now up $251.00
                                                                      Comment
                                                                      • do5000
                                                                        SBR Wise Guy
                                                                        • 06-06-08
                                                                        • 853

                                                                        #700
                                                                        i'm not using the same system as everybody else, so my units change from bet to bet.
                                                                        i am still chasing, but chasing a win, not a specific amount.

                                                                        i have a base amount ($2 or $3 or $5 to start) and bet that. lets say $2.
                                                                        if i win (whatever the profit), i take it and bet the same amount on the next game.
                                                                        if i lose game A, i bet the B game so my profit is A bet + 25%. if i win, i start over with $2.
                                                                        if i lose, i bet the C game to win my B bet +25%.

                                                                        so for me, units are wins, not any specific profit amount.
                                                                        the way i do it (very small stakes) allows me to manage my bankroll in a way i feel comfortable.
                                                                        no matter what the odds are for game A, my loss will be the same. the profits will never be big, but they will be more frequent and consistent.

                                                                        obviously im going to win a fraction of what everybody else will at the end (especially cause for A bets im using RL -1).

                                                                        to be honest, i want to see if doing this, in a very conservative way, i can still beat my stock broker.
                                                                        if i can make 50% (tax free) in 6 months of baseball, the nasdaq can suck it.
                                                                        Comment
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