System Integrity?

DustyDiamond · 02-12-11, 10:17 AM

I played the system last season using the RL calculator to bring the RL down to -1. Hebodk you are right, most won in 3 game chase but a few went to D or even F bets.

PokerDave · 02-14-11, 11:28 AM

Thats a great answer Dusty.

Thank you

AbeFroman · 02-14-11, 08:58 PM

The numbers, no losses, look great, but do understand going in that with these systems, you could chase up to six times, finish the series 1-5, and the system still counts it as a win. You could also far exceed your bankroll while chasing the later plays in this system, which could cost you to potentially lose everything you've won, anyways.

Not attempting to bash the system or dissuade anyone from joining, but just something to keep in mind.

BOL!

ebbearsfb1 · 02-14-11, 09:29 PM

any chance this gets a new thread this year?

ebbearsfb1 · 02-14-11, 09:42 PM

Originally posted by DustyDiamond

I'm going to be tracking this system using labby this year. Look for a thread as the season gets closer

probably a good idea, didn't really thing about that, wonder how it effects your results might be best to use more labby lines maybe 6 labby lines for each (game) and spread it out ... not really sure gotta think about it, good thing i got a month and a half

DustyDiamond · 02-15-11, 07:54 PM

Originally posted by ebbearsfb1

probably a good idea, didn't really thing about that, wonder how it effects your results might be best to use more labby lines maybe 6 labby lines for each (game) and spread it out ... not really sure gotta think about it, good thing i got a month and a half

I'll probably only do a single line as there is only one game a day. Makes for a simple labby. I still get confused playing multiple games on a single line. Are you talking about creating a labby line for A bets, one for B bets etc..?

Long Term · 02-17-11, 07:32 AM

Great thread. I think I am going to dip in the pp with you all this year.

I do have a Pinnacle account so I think I can get the -1 run line. Anyone know what the average juice is on the -1 line would be roughly, following the parameters of this system ofcourse.

I am curious because I want to do some bank roll management to determine how much of my roll to invest as a winning unit.

Thanks in advance

Long Term · 02-18-11, 07:16 PM

After running mock runs on the spread sheets from previous seasons, I am pretty much sold on the system. I will be running a 1 line labby playing the 1 RL at Pinnacle. I know the juice will be higher than the 1.5 RL but I figure the pushes I will get from the 1 run losses will compensate by keeping my labby line down. Would have been +47 units on the 2008 season.

I think using a 1% of my total bank roll for an initial unit bet should be conservative enough.

DustyDiamond · 02-19-11, 01:22 PM

I definitely think labby is the way to go with this system. It is very nerve racking when it came to E and F bets

allison13 · 02-20-11, 10:19 AM

im using the labby this year

Messijah · 02-20-11, 02:10 PM

How do you use labby in this system? I don´t get it. In labby you have to clear the line in order to profit, right? In this system you rely on the team to win ONE game to cover and profit.
example; if ur $50 better:

25-25-25-25 (risking $50 @ 2.00) Game lost: -$50
25-25-25-25-50 (risking $75 @ 2.00) Game lost: -$75 (total $125)
25-25-25-25-50-75 (risking $100 @ 2.00) Game lost: -$100 (total $225)
25-25-25-25-50-75-100 (risking $125 @ 2.00) Game lost: -$125 (total $350)
25-25-25-25-50-75-100-125 (risking $150 @ 2.00) Game lost: -$150 (total $500)
25-25-25-25-50-75-100-125-150 (risking $175 @ 2.00) Game won: +$175 (total -$350)

The point with the system here is that you start a new chase when your team has won. That won´t work with labby because you have to play more games, you havn´t played through the line yet.

I´m hung over, tired and kinnda get the feeling that I´m way of here + dead wrong so if anybody even remotley get my post, please straighten me out!

peace
M

TRE1968 · 02-20-11, 06:10 PM

1 labby lines for all games

50/50/50/50

TRE1968 · 02-20-11, 06:11 PM

long term was was 2009 season

Long Term · 02-20-11, 08:04 PM

Originally posted by TRE1968

long term was was 2009 season

Not sure about to 2009. I only found a spreadsheet for 2008 in this thread.

If anyone can up the 2009 and 2010 results I would be more than happy to take the time to run through them on mock labby

TRE1968 · 02-21-11, 12:14 AM

isnt 2009 right here in this thread

DustyDiamond · 02-21-11, 11:22 AM

I prefer a 1 line labby for this system, remember your adding 1 number for a loss and crossing out 2 on a win. Yeah it obviously won't be as profitable as going straight up, but a F bet loss kills you. You could also try a 6 line labby, one for each bet. I won't mind seeing how both would come out in the end. More info here:

http://platinumsportsinvesting.com/labourchere.aspx

blaucoin · 02-21-11, 12:18 PM

hmmm...

the 6 labby lines sound interesting. I might just try it this year

SkivChef · 02-21-11, 03:49 PM

Can't wait for the season to start

ebbearsfb1 · 02-21-11, 06:09 PM

Agree with the 6 labby line might try that also... I think there needs to be a thread to discuss plays and one with the official play so people don't need to go through 1000 pages

TRE1968 · 02-22-11, 01:40 AM

i dont think 6 labby lines will be any good

allison13 · 02-22-11, 05:18 PM

its been a long offseason

Long Term · 02-22-11, 05:45 PM

I ran through 2007-2010 opening lines on SBR using the system criteria. I used a 1 run line as this is what I will be attempting for 2011.

Here are the results:

I only tracked from May 1 to Aug 31st of each season.

Each season brought back roughly 28-31 units profit.

Worst down swing of money invested into a labby line before it started getting cleared was 83 units over the 4 seasons.

That being said, I probably would not be comfortable using anything more than 1/2 of a percent of your bankroll to use as your unit won number. This might sound way too conservative but that 83 unit downswing did not look very pretty on paper.

It is obvious with responsible bankroll management in place this system is a pretty easy cash for labby players for 25-32 units per ball season. That mixed with the fact that the system requires all of 5 minutes per day to maintain (checking opening line for biggest favorite, log into your sports book account and wager runline) makes this a no brainer to scoop 27-32 units for 4 months of wagering.

I will probably be doing 1/4 of a percent of my roll on this to compliment the 2 other labby lines I will have going to tail 2 touts.

It will bring in a nice spot of money with very little commitment of your time per day but like I said, proceed with caution. I was amazed how often huge moneylines (275-330) crapped the bed and lost outright.

GL to you all.

TRE1968 · 02-22-11, 06:29 PM

83 units bit much for me..there are better systems out there than this one

TRE1968 · 02-23-11, 12:04 AM

i think best way to run this system..lay the -1.5 chase for 4 games then start over..it loses bout 2 or 3 times per season but you will make some units

DustyDiamond · 02-23-11, 05:34 AM

Six line labby might be hard to clear, it could take the whole season to do it. I might just stick to a one liner

soldier1047 · 02-24-11, 05:39 PM

Man! Can't baseball come any faster! My favorite time of the year...LOL =)

DustyDiamond · 02-25-11, 10:12 PM

Originally posted by soldier1047

Man! Can't baseball come any faster! My favorite time of the year...LOL =)

The gap between football and baseball is too long!!!

Messijah · 02-26-11, 11:33 AM

Still not getting how using labby on this system would bring you money. Labby is about working back and clearing lines in order to, if you want to, raise the units. What are you going to do when your game hits on the 6th game? Start a new series with 5th game amounts? This system is about "ONE game saviour". Labby is not. not getting it.

kcDdegenerate · 02-26-11, 12:17 PM

like dogs chasing cars

rkelly110 · 02-28-11, 11:31 AM

How about a little filter to use with this system. Bet the ML at a minimum of -222 (1.45).
You will catch one run games. If the game goes higher than -222 or lower 1.44, bet RL.

I've been using Long Term's method for a 4# labby. After a loss, add your line plus your
loss, divide by 4, that is your new line. You only need to win two games to clear your line.
If there's more than one fav with the same odds, bet both teams to knock off one number.

Just my 2 cents. GL.

DustyDiamond · 03-01-11, 03:42 PM

Originally posted by rkelly110

How about a little filter to use with this system. Bet the ML at a minimum of -222 (1.45).
You will catch one run games. If the game goes higher than -222 or lower 1.44, bet RL.

I've been using Long Term's method for a 4# labby. After a loss, add your line plus your
loss, divide by 4, that is your new line. You only need to win two games to clear your line.
If there's more than one fav with the same odds, bet both teams to knock off one number.

Just my 2 cents. GL.

this sounds interesting I like your using one labby line and adding and dividing. always betting -222 and above would require a lot of units when it comes to E and F bets. I like betting on the -1 RL which requires a bet on the -1.5 and the ML.

rkelly110 · 03-01-11, 05:30 PM

Dusty, you won't always be betting that number. Only when it comes up as a filter.
Most games will be on the -RL, probably in the plus range. Using that filter, you might
win a one run game, which normally you would've lost.

Yeah, I heard about that kind of betting to achieve the -1 runline. Isn't that expensive?
Can you elaborate?

I'm using that 4# strategy now, on my lab lines, it helps keep costs down.

DustyDiamond · 03-03-11, 04:00 PM

Originally posted by rkelly110

Dusty, you won't always be betting that number. Only when it comes up as a filter.
Most games will be on the -RL, probably in the plus range. Using that filter, you might
win a one run game, which normally you would've lost.

Yeah, I heard about that kind of betting to achieve the -1 runline. Isn't that expensive?
Can you elaborate?

I'm using that 4# strategy now, on my lab lines, it helps keep costs down.

No not that expensive, in fact it keeps costs down. Here is an example: Lets say your betting on a team that has a ML of -230 and a -1.5 RL of +130 (these odds are common) . If you bet straight up on the ML you would have to risk $230 to win $100. Betting the -1.5 RL you bet $100 to win $130. Now to bet on the -1 RL you would place a bet of $100 on the ML and $43.48 on the -1.5 RL. Your betting 143.48 to win 100. If the team wins by 2 runs you win both bets. If a team wins by 1 run you lose the RL but win the ML which would result in a push overall. I attached the spreadsheet calculator so you can see how it works. (if I did it right)

Attached Files

RL CALC.xls (16.5 KB, 190 views)

rkelly110 · 03-03-11, 05:28 PM

Thanks, Dusty. The spread sheet confused me, but your explanation helped a lot.

Using your example to win $20. I would bet $20 on the ML and bet $15.38 on -RL.
ML wins, a return of $8.40, -RL wins for a return of $20 for a total of $68.78 (+$28.40).
ML wins -RL loses, a loss of $6.98. If both lose, down $35.38.

Really cant use this for a labby, because you can't take off two numbers.

So if you lose that game, the next would be to win $40 and so on down the line?

DustyDiamond · 03-04-11, 05:37 AM

I think you could use this for labby, if you lose you add what you lost to the line, if you won then you would cross the line out, if you push no action to the line. just remake your bet. Using 5-5-5-5 your first bet would be to win 10. Lose and your line might look something like this 5-5-5-5-14.50 so your next bet would be to win 19.50