2014 MLB thread with friends

[Smutbucket]

You guys post this shit over and over every day, line moves are meaningless in baseball, noticeable in basketball and significant in football, as easy as that...

I believe line moves are entirely meaningless in every sport.....why ? because the "meaning" can change every day. this "meaning" you seek is controlled by your opponent. He only uses it to deceive you. one day a certain line movement might mean to tail a pick, the next day the same exact line move can lead to an easy fade. therefore it is meaningless to us. they can see the same "public" numbers that a lot of gamblers believe to be accurate public percentages. they can alter their lines accordingly. and after all they control these numbers and only a foolish bookie would release accurate numbers to the betting public of these precious percentages that control how much money they/or we make.

I like all of those except Texas in theory. I might just square up and hammer the Nationals and nothing else, though.

There is no "sharp" and "square." Just winners and losers.

take your own advice and just worry about picking the winner instead of staying away from a team/total because it "sounds square"

[PapaDBets]

In the past, I used to steer clear of a game like San Diego today. I'd go either SD or nothing, because if I had a line of +135 and the books were offering up a +114, I figured the oddsmakers knew something I didn't and that information was baked into the line.

Now, it just seems like games like that or the Giants and the low juice the entire series vs. the Mets are an ATM machine for the public.

Where do you draw the line on something like that though? If the line is 20+ cents off by your calculations you lay off but if it's 15 cents off you'd play it?

[RavensFan2k3]

That's almost what I did when I backed the Padres today. I was thinking, I'm off by like 25 cents here so the Padres are probably a good bet.

Usually if I'm off only like 10 I would go ahead and play the other side but when I'm that far off I feel like I screwed up somewhere.

We need to work together here and figure something out. Looking at tomorrow, here is what I like. what is everyone's thoughts?

Reds -116
Nats -115
Red Sox +115
Texas +100
LAA -115

These are leans.

I like the first two, unsure of the rest as of now. How do you feel about Minny?

[No coincidences]

Where do you draw the line on something like that though? If the line is 20+ cents off by your calculations you lay off but if it's 15 cents off you'd play it?

Hard to say. There is no right or wrong answer until after the fact, when it either cashes or depletes your account, and no pattern from one bet to the next. That's what makes gambling so "fun." I wish there were simple answers to this, but in baseball especially, there just isn't.

[YOUNGBUCK]

Line moves aren't meaningless in anything

[Dancun82]

I am Irish and living in Ireland but really like watching baseball and having a small flutter every now and then to make it more interesting...I hope it is okay for me to post on this forum, but I was just wondering why should I back the Nats as favs against the Giants at home? My knowledge is very limited and I would just like someone far more knowledgeable than me about this sport to just explain it a little bit.....the Nats are now -121 with my bookie......

[Broncos]

Does Seattle have a chance today?

[You mad bro]

[echun32]

Does Seattle have a chance today?

apparently lol..put a small play on them just because of the value..M's should've never been dogged this much.

[echun32]

I like all of those except Texas in theory. I might just square up and hammer the Nationals and nothing else, though.

actually really like this play..vogy historically gets rocked by the nats...just can't fade the gigantes...ive learned my lesson too many times

[RavensFan2k3]

I like all of those except Texas in theory. I might just square up and hammer the Nationals and nothing else, though.

Yeah I dont like Texas neither...actually really like Cleveland

[Smutbucket]

Line moves aren't meaningless in anything

why waste your time looking for the meaning of something that always changes. their is no set standard meaning for it. so therefore it is meaningless to us as gamblers....comprende bro? this outside the box thinking might be a little too much for most to handle on these forums.....typical quotes like good ole young bucks right here have been constantly drilled into these forums with no elaboration. the focus is constantly on line moves, fading the public, seeking the sharp play, avoiding betting the square teams, its all so fuking arbitrary if you ask me, no wonder its so rare to find a thread that can consistently handicap winners....you would think if "lines moves meant something" or "had a set meaning" we would have a ton of winning threads throughout the forum.....go figure we don't for a reason, BECAUSE THEY DONT MEAN SHIT. im officially done with this topic though.....spent too many years arguing my point, let the books and their trolls flood the forums with their misinformation, and let the people too stupid to question these theories, regurgitate the same bullshit.

[Pauulzcappin]

why waste your time looking for the meaning of something that always changes. their is no set standard meaning for it. so therefore it is meaningless to us as gamblers....comprende bro? this outside the box thinking might be a little too much for most to handle on these forums.....typical quotes like good ole young bucks right here have been constantly drilled into these forums with no elaboration. the focus is constantly on line moves, fading the public, seeking the sharp play, avoiding betting the square teams, its all so fuking arbitrary if you ask me, no wonder its so rare to find a thread that can consistently handicap winners....you would think if "lines moves meant something" or "had a set meaning" we would have a ton of winning threads throughout the forum.....go figure we don't for a reason, BECAUSE THEY DONT MEAN SHIT. im officially done with this topic though.....spent too many years arguing my point, let the books and their trolls flood the forums with their misinformation, and let the people too stupid to question these theories, regurgitate the same bullshit.

You seem to have a strong point of view and I have never seen you post before. Do you mind elaborating on your point of view?

Do you actually think line movement is mostly something that books put out there just to mess with people's heads? I have moved a few lines by betting max on nba quarters and some other events with lower limits and even though my knowledge is nothing comparable to people who make big bucks, the line moved.

So from what I got from a few years of betting is that money do move the lines but you can't consider it an absolute truth because people make mistakes. No one is a 65% lifetime handicapper so they do miss sometimes.

On the other hand, I think books sometimes try to play tricks on bettors. They put soft lines out there (ie Nats -120ish last night against scubs Padres/Stults) and leave it there hanging there with most of the public on Washington to think Padres are the right play. Biggest example was a game at Boston where the Blazers opened at +5.5 or +5 and line was slowly moving all day long up to +2.5 or +3. Blazers obviously lost that game by 20 and a lot of "line movement"sharps got buried. I think it is all relative.

[doogtonmai]

Opening lines are developed to determine the 50/50 chance (well, not really because of 10% juice and 20%+ in-between values of favorite and underdog). Books aim for the guaranteed money, i.e., wagering even on both sides collecting the juice and/or in between value. Lines move on information and to encourage gamblers to put money on the other side to balance the risk. Books DO NOT KNOW the outcome! Once committed to a play, then one should have a few books to shop from to take advantage of the different prices. One should not be swayed by line movements.

[No coincidences]

I took the Nats (to win 3U) Angels (to win 2U) and Cubs (1U) this morning. Sorry -- posting in a hurry from phone.

[tatddy]

Cubs (1U)

[Pauulzcappin]

A lot of good looking overs on the board tonight

Grand salami over might be a good play

[YOUNGBUCK]

why waste your time looking for the meaning of something that always changes. their is no set standard meaning for it. so therefore it is meaningless to us as gamblers....comprende bro? this outside the box thinking might be a little too much for most to handle on these forums.....typical quotes like good ole young bucks right here have been constantly drilled into these forums with no elaboration. the focus is constantly on line moves, fading the public, seeking the sharp play, avoiding betting the square teams, its all so fuking arbitrary if you ask me, no wonder its so rare to find a thread that can consistently handicap winners....you would think if "lines moves meant something" or "had a set meaning" we would have a ton of winning threads throughout the forum.....go figure we don't for a reason, BECAUSE THEY DONT MEAN SHIT. im officially done with this topic though.....spent too many years arguing my point, let the books and their trolls flood the forums with their misinformation, and let the people too stupid to question these theories, regurgitate the same bullshit.

I'm 10-0 in Rugby never watched it in my life off line moves and weather

[bababooey13]

I'm 10-0 in Rugby never watched it in my life off line moves and weather

NRL rugby line moves have been insanely telling this year.

[YOUNGBUCK]

NRL rugby line moves have been insanely telling this year.

[No coincidences]

You can't blindly follow line movement, nor write it off as meaningless. You'd be naive and foolish not to consider why it happens or how it happens. You'd be equally naive and foolish to assume chasing steam will produce instant results, especially in this day and age. Books have had no choice but to adjust to the Internet era where previously-considered "inside information" is simply a Twitter account away. Line movement is much more complicated now, as it should be. That doesn't mean you just write it off, though.

[No coincidences]

J.A. Happ is -169 on Tuesday.

J.A. Happ.

[No coincidences]

Lean Twins, Tribe, Fish, Reds for Tuesday so far.

[Colts Pacer]

It's hard to bet against Kluber. He's been amazing all year and I've made a lot of money off him. Looking forward to seeing the line at Heritage. If it's reasonable, I'm on it. Like less than -135

[BayArea888]

It's hard to bet against Kluber. He's been amazing all year and I've made a lot of money off him. Looking forward to seeing the line at Heritage. If it's reasonable, I'm on it. Like less than -135

I'm actually seeing Kluber at close to even money...not sure what to think, but I know with that line, a shitload of money will be on Cleveland. If u like em, buy now?

The line that sticks out to me the most is the NYY@SEA line. My initial reaction is that the wrong team is favored here, by at least 30-40 cents...anyone care to enlighten me on this line? What am I missing? C'mon, it's Nuno pitching for the Yanks!

[whtsox13]

Hope you got the 'Danks fade' in early.

[Pauulzcappin]

The reason Kluber isn't -125 is that Tribe sucks against lefties. Still a solid play, this guy is a monster.

[BayArea888]

I'm actually seeing Kluber at close to even money...not sure what to think, but I know with that line, a shitload of money will be on Cleveland. If u like em, buy now?

The line that sticks out to me the most is the NYY@SEA line. My initial reaction is that the wrong team is favored here, by at least 30-40 cents...anyone care to enlighten me on this line? What am I missing? C'mon, it's Nuno pitching for the Yanks!

line has adjusted...

[No coincidences]

Lean Twins, Tribe, Fish, Reds for Tuesday so far.

Missed some great numbers not locking some of these in last night. Damn.

[No coincidences]

Hope you got the 'Danks fade' in early.

Given the Tigers' current form and how Danks has been pitching lately, that's a no play for me.

[whtsox13]

Given the Tigers' current form and how Danks has been pitching lately, that's a no play for me.

Saw a good# early and jumped from my perception of JV vs Sox and in Chicago. Wagered mostly blind.
AL Central is ridiculous.

[No coincidences]

Saw a good# early and jumped from my perception of JV vs Sox and in Chicago. Wagered mostly blind.
AL Central is ridiculous.

Verlander just isn't right. His velocity is down and pitch placement has been horrible. And the Sox can hit.

[No coincidences]

Taking Cubs and Twins for a unit. Reds to win 3U. Tribe to win 2U.

[Pauulzcappin]

Taking Cubs and Twins for a unit. Reds to win 3U. Tribe to win 2U.

why are you not posting the lines anymore? don't you think this big move on the reds are weird?

[echun32]

thoughts on A's?