2014 MLB thread with friends

[No coincidences]

You're exactly right. Arizona should have like 7 runs by now.

What you said is the exact reason teams like Oakland and San Fran win so many games. They play baseball the right way. They move runners, don't make many errors, don't strike out a lot, and don't walk a ton of batters. They basically just capitalize on the other team's mistakes. They don't beat themselves. It's cliche but true.

Look at Oakland today. They were patient and let Ubaldo walk the world. After the bases were walked full, the As knew they were going to get something fat to hit and they took him deep. They didn't just take wild hacks. They dictated the pitches they wanted to hit.

Exactly.

[BigDofBA]

Kershaw opens at -145, line drops 20 cents. Dodgers easy winner.

Same thing with Giants.

What's up with these line Moves?

The Mets line move like 30 cents.

[No coincidences]

Kershaw opens at -145, line drops 20 cents. Dodgers easy winner.

Same thing with Giants.

What's up with these line Moves?

The Mets line move like 30 cents.

Ask 2DB -- seems like in baseball, beating the closer by 20 or more cents is the kiss of death damn near every single time. It's bizarre.

[BigDofBA]

I thought the Padres would be pumped up playing in their camp uniforms...lol. Guess not.

[leetreaper]

You guys post this shit over and over every day, line moves are meaningless in baseball, noticeable in basketball and significant in football, as easy as that...

[No coincidences]

I thought the Padres would be pumped up playing in their camp uniforms...lol. Guess not.

That's one of the worst MLB offenses I've seen in a long, long time.

Why they were anything less than +140 today is beyond me.

[No coincidences]

Yeah, we'll see where you're at in August when baseball is eating you alive once again, Bear.

That's what I hate most about days like this: the derelicts show up and brag about their 5-team parlays and how "easy" MLB is to bet.

[BigDofBA]

That's one of the worst MLB offenses I've seen in a long, long time.

Why they were anything less than +140 today is beyond me.

That's the thing, RLM and they were only like +114 against Zimmerman.

Speaking of doing the little things and playing the game the right way earlier,
how big is that run the Giants scratched across in the 8th. It completely changes the complexion of this game BC now the Mets can't bunt the lead off runner over being down 2.

[Pauulzcappin]

Stults sucks. Just blindly fade him. Got some money back from yesterday's debacle.

[BigDofBA]

3-5 today after 5-0 yesterday.

Boo

[tatddy]

You guys post this shit over and over every day, line moves are meaningless in baseball, noticeable in basketball and significant in football, as easy as that...

You are a one of the biggest trolls on this site but this post is actually on the money.

Now run along and go bump a bunch of posters' losing threads....

[No coincidences]

You are a one of the biggest trolls on this site but this post is actually on the money.

I see this all the time, yet no one elaborates re: why.

[Allure]

I think the opening line in baseball tells you way way more than any kind of line movement. In fact beating the closing line is not worth much if at all.

[leetreaper]

I see this all the time, yet no one elaborates re: why.

Experience.

[No coincidences]

I think the opening line in baseball tells you way way more than any kind of line movement. In fact beating the closing line is not worth much if at all.

OK, well let's take today for instance. Why in the hell was:

San Diego +114 at open vs. Washington?
Baltimore +120 at open vs. Oakland?
The Mets +124 at open vs. San Francisco?
Tampa +115 at open vs. Seattle?

Given the pitching matchups and everything else, there was really no reason for any of these teams to be any less than +130 minimum. Then, to make things even more odd, the line moves in favor of all of these horrible, dead dogs.

[No coincidences]

Experience.

That's not an answer.

[tatddy]

The information I gather during the day leading up to the game is move valuable than any change I save getting the best line super early. But I'm not a volume bettor. Ultimately you have to crunch you own data and keep it extremely up to date to make your own line/probability. If your probability beats the line you're getting it's usually a bet. That simple. The line moves/public percentages don't mean squat.

[leetreaper]

OK, well let's take today for instance. Why in the hell was:

San Diego +114 at open vs. Washington?
Baltimore +120 at open vs. Oakland?
The Mets +124 at open vs. San Francisco?
Tampa +115 at open vs. Seattle?

Given the pitching matchups and everything else, there was really no reason for any of these teams to be any less than +130 minimum. Then, to make things even more odd, the line moves in favor of all of these horrible, dead dogs.

That's not an answer.

You can analyze a million games and won't find an answer...

[No coincidences]

In the past, I used to steer clear of a game like San Diego today. I'd go either SD or nothing, because if I had a line of +135 and the books were offering up a +114, I figured the oddsmakers knew something I didn't and that information was baked into the line.

Now, it just seems like games like that or the Giants and the low juice the entire series vs. the Mets are an ATM machine for the public.

[Allure]

OK, well let's take today for instance. Why in the hell was:

San Diego +114 at open vs. Washington?
Baltimore +120 at open vs. Oakland?
The Mets +124 at open vs. San Francisco?
Tampa +115 at open vs. Seattle?

Given the pitching matchups and everything else, there was really no reason for any of these teams to be any less than +130 minimum. Then, to make things even more odd, the line moves in favor of all of these horrible, dead dogs.

Well that's are very small sample size. I agree sometimes lines don't make sense at all (e.g. Arizona vs Cincinnati a few series ago). But three teams you mentioned were playing at home, so you have to take that into consideration as well. And even Tampa Bay sucks, all those runs came in the 9th, before that Seattle was just as bad.

[bababooey13]

baseball season is a headache for the books, im convinced.
most people don't get their betting juices flowing till the end of summer.
the key is finding balance between the square and sharp plays, which is almost impossible.

but hey, arent you still +units in here coin? so nothing to complain about.

it's easy for me to forget baseball line movement is meaningless.. i like to have a thread where we can call ourselves idiots for falling for line movement.

[tatddy]

On the lines today. Best I can say is:

Pads: Until today Stults has had extreme success vs Was bats recently and SD has the pen advantage. Zimmerman had a great start last time out but ultimately has been inconsistent.

Mets: Not much more than a solid form Wheeler vs a poor form Lincecum and the probability of SF resting Posey and others with day after night and no rest coming.

Didn't cap the other games.

[bababooey13]

On the lines today. Best I can say is:

Pads: Until today Stults has had extreme success vs Was bats recently and SD has the pen advantage. Zimmerman had a great start last time out but ultimately has been inconsistent.

Mets: Not much more than a solid form Wheeler vs a poor form Lincecum and the probability of SF resting Posey and others with day after night and no rest coming.

Didn't cap the other games.

padres been getting retarted lines all year. there is no explanation for most of their lines imo. they can't hit the baseball. at all.

[No coincidences]

Pads: Until today Stults has had extreme success vs Was bats recently and SD has the pen advantage. Zimmerman had a great start last time out but ultimately has been inconsistent.

Maybe, but Stults is still Stults and Zimm is Zimm. Their numbers alone indicate a horrible mismatch. Plus, the Pads' anemic offense speaks for itself. If they are facing a superior pitcher, there's no reason for them to be any better than +130 or so.

Mets: Not much more than a solid form Wheeler vs a poor form Lincecum and the probability of SF resting Posey and others with day after night and no rest coming.

Lincecum got shelled in Cincy, but other than that, he's been pretty damn good lately. Today was his sixth quality start in seven appearances.

Wheeler meanwhile, has allowed four or more runs four times in his last seven starts.

[whtsox13]

If 'sharp' is opposite of 'square' what is opposite of "The Public"? Its all so fukkin arbitrary, beyond winners and losers.

[No coincidences]

If 'sharp' is opposite of 'square' what is opposite of "The Public"? Its all so fukkin arbitrary, beyond winners and losers.

There is no "sharp" and "square." Just winners and losers.

[tatddy]

Ultimately man I have no clue how people beat this game with volume. I'd be a losing bettor for sure if I tried to bet 4 games a day.

[tatddy]

Ultimately man I have no clue how people beat this game with volume. I'd be a losing bettor for sure if I tried to bet 4 games a day.

I guess I shouldn't say I never look at line moves. They do scare me off from time to time but I don't make a habit of making it a big factor.

[whtsox13]

If 'sharp' is opposite of 'square' what is opposite of "The Public"? Its all so fukkin arbitrary, beyond winners and losers.

There is no "sharp" and "square." Just winners and losers.

Thanks for dumbing that down for 'The Public'

[jay89]

while we're on the padres, you can analyze the lines all you want but I'm looking at the stats.

eric stults, last start this year vs washington = 10 hits, 2 er, etc. his previous starts, allowed at least 3 runs. Washington, one of the best vs lefties this year and this past week have been hitting the ball well.

don't take it for granted, when you get these mismatches, trust the numbers, and don't read into anything else too much. as said above, there are only winners and losers, it's as black and white as it gets

[BigDofBA]

In the past, I used to steer clear of a game like San Diego today. I'd go either SD or nothing, because if I had a line of +135 and the books were offering up a +114, I figured the oddsmakers knew something I didn't and that information was baked into the line.

That's almost what I did when I backed the Padres today. I was thinking, I'm off by like 25 cents here so the Padres are probably a good bet.

Usually if I'm off only like 10 I would go ahead and play the other side but when I'm that far off I feel like I screwed up somewhere.

We need to work together here and figure something out. Looking at tomorrow, here is what I like. what is everyone's thoughts?

Reds -116
Nats -115
Red Sox +115
Texas +100
LAA -115

These are leans.

[No coincidences]

Ultimately man I have no clue how people beat this game with volume. I'd be a losing bettor for sure if I tried to bet 4 games a day.

It ain't easy -- I'll say that much.

[No coincidences]

175-180, +10.08U thread

[No coincidences]

That's almost what I did when I backed the Padres today. I was thinking, I'm off by like 25 cents here so the Padres are probably a good bet.

Usually if I'm off only like 10 I would go ahead and play the other side but when I'm that far off I feel like I screwed up somewhere.

We need to work together here and figure something out. Looking at tomorrow, here is what I like. what is everyone's thoughts?

Reds -116
Nats -115
Red Sox +115
Texas +100
LAA -115

These are leans.

I like all of those except Texas in theory. I might just square up and hammer the Nationals and nothing else, though.

[Pauulzcappin]

I like all of those except Texas in theory. I might just square up and hammer the Nationals and nothing else, though.

I'm not sure about betting against the Giants. Angels look good but Richards pitches better on the road for some reason.

Toronto is -190 and they look a bit cold. Dickey sucks against Minny. I think Tampa Bay shouldn't be -200 even against mr magoo.

Card looks good tomorrow. Big play on Kluber on the road against KC tuesday also if the price is right. should be a pick em.