MLB - Situation Plays - SDQL

[Mako-SBR]

A continuation of what we started in the NBA thread, this will be the headquarters for pursuing MLB plays using SDQL-based research.

Remember to add spaces after the colon-p parameters when posting queries here on SBR, because the board auto adds emoticons that screw up the text (and when copy/pasting the queries others have posted here previously be sure to take said spaces back out again.

I'll start off with a query I tinkered around with a bit this week to prep for the pending season, it deals with home dogs having a win rate of 51% or higher on the season going similarly talented opponents in their own division who have a similar win rate or slightly higher:

HD and WP>=51 and o:WP>=61 and division=o:division and season>=2006

SU: 48-26 (0.32, 64.9%) avg line: 114.6 on / against: +$2,950 ROI: +39.9%

BOL to all who contribute and thanks for sharing your hard work for everyone to benefit from.

[figue]

This one is for April Only

DIV and D and p:W and 40<o:WP< 50 and season>=2010 and line<=166 and month=4

SU: 28-16 (0.39, 63.6%)

[Mako-SBR]

Nice figue, any time I see the ROI go over 40% I get excited...

When Jmon starts posting his best ours will go to the back of the short bus but it's still good to get them out there for discussion/learning.

[NBACover]

I'll be here over the season, just checking in.

[JMon]

Can't wait

[Noleafclover]

Excited!

[tonywayne]

I just started betting back in Oct/Nov, and I'm REALLY looking forward to baseball season. This thread is going to be a big help, and I will contribute when & where I can.

[figue]

jmon any query for this :

since 2008, pitchers coming off 1st career CG Shutout are combined 9-21 (16 ND) 5.89 ERA & 1.67 WHIP / opposing teams are 32-14 (70%)

betting the OVER -vs- pitchers coming off 1st career CG Shutout have been $$$$ L6 years / 27-11-8 (1st 5) OVER & 31-11-4 (FG) OVER

[JMon]

jmon any query for this :

since 2008, pitchers coming off 1st career CG Shutout are combined 9-21 (16 ND) 5.89 ERA & 1.67 WHIP / opposing teams are 32-14 (70%)

betting the OVER -vs- pitchers coming off 1st career CG Shutout have been $$$$ L6 years / 27-11-8 (1st 5) OVER & 31-11-4 (FG) OVER

fading a pitcher coming of a complete game or perfect game is usually a nice fade. However using 1st career and sdql may be impossible or if it is possible I do not know how to do it.

[figue]

Teacher jmon,do you have this for april on your data base??

line > 0 and p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 40 and p:runs > 0 and month = 4

[JMon]

Teacher jmon,do you have this for april on your data base??

line > 0 and p:margin < 3 and o:WP >= 40 and p:runs > 0 and month = 4

I'm sure I have something similar. Puppies have been taking a beat down the last two years in the month of April; which is the normal spot to find them. Just like favs in the summer, when the bats and ball heat up. I'm working on my database now, which is a nightmare. Looking for line and/or scheduling adjustments.

[figue]

Look good...

H and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and season > 2008 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and rest = 0

[b1slickguy]

Can't wait

Just reloaded Puppy Slacko on my sdql laptop. Ready for some doggies now. Woof Woof

We are becoming an army, fellas.
Good luck to all this season.

[figue]

Just reloaded Puppy Slacko on my sdql laptop. Ready for some doggies now. Woof Woof

We are becoming an army, fellas.
Good luck to all this season.

[JMon]

Look good...

H and p:margin > 7 and op:runs = 0 and season > 2008 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and rest = 0

like this one fig . doggies perform in this one very nicely, so I eliminated summer months. The situation doesn't do will in interleague play, so I eliminated those. As well as the first game of a series. I ran a "group by" and noticed margins of 3 and 4 need to be captured...... p:margin=7,6,5,4,3,2,1

H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month!=7 and month!=8) and 2008<=season and SG > 1

I did make reference in my database for the original query of p:margin>7, with my additions, for a "Hammer Play" 28-3 SU (with dogs being a remarkable 8 and freakin 1

Cheers

[Mako-SBR]

like this one fig . doggies perform in this one very nicely, so I eliminated summer months. The situation doesn't do will in interleague play, so I eliminated those. As well as the first game of a series. I ran a "group by" and noticed margins of 3 and 4 need to be captured...... p:margin=7,6,5,4,3,2,1

H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month!=7 and month!=8) and 2008<=season and SG > 1

I did make reference in my database for the original query of p:margin>7, with my additions, for a "Hammer Play" 28-3 SU (with dogs being a remarkable 8 and freakin 1

Cheers

Very cool, love it.

[JMon]

Very cool, love it.

Mako and all..I'm a different animal when it comes to MLB betting vs. NBA. NBA, I spot play..MLB I am a volume bettor. I bet large amounts of money and games every single day. The last 3 years I have hit (each year) roughly 55-50% +40u on over 500+ plays. This is in course of a ML system player. I play many dogs, as well as favs; love totals. I will spot play in here ONLY. However, I will give the sdql query. Just keep in mind, my situations one must play them all, every day. Thus a bankroll is needed.

[figue]

like this one fig . doggies perform in this one very nicely, so I eliminated summer months. The situation doesn't do will in interleague play, so I eliminated those. As well as the first game of a series. I ran a "group by" and noticed margins of 3 and 4 need to be captured...... p:margin=7,6,5,4,3,2,1

H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month!=7 and month!=8) and 2008<=season and SG > 1

I did make reference in my database for the original query of p:margin>7, with my additions, for a "Hammer Play" 28-3 SU (with dogs being a remarkable 8 and freakin 1

Cheers

even better :

H and p:margin >= 3 and op:runs = 0 and WP < 60 and o:WP > 38.5 and line > -230 and conference = o:conference and (month != 7 and month != 8) and 2008 <= season and SG > 1 and total > 6.5

[OLY]

This is going to be fun this season

[JMon]

Mako and all..I'm a different animal when it comes to MLB betting vs. NBA. NBA, I spot play..MLB I am a volume bettor. I bet large amounts of money and games every single day. The last 3 years I have hit (each year) roughly 55-50% +40u on over 500+ plays. This is in course of a ML system player. I play many dogs, as well as favs; love totals. I will spot play in here ONLY. However, I will give the sdql query. Just keep in mind, my situations one must play them all, every day. Thus a bankroll is needed.

After two weeks, database is cleaned, adjusted, deleted, and ready for action! I have weeded out over 200 nonperforming trends/situations.

[figue]

After two weeks, database is cleaned, adjusted, deleted, and ready for action! I have weeded out over 200 nonperforming trends/situations.

cant wait !!

[Mako-SBR]

After two weeks, database is cleaned, adjusted, deleted, and ready for action! I have weeded out over 200 nonperforming trends/situations.

That is awesome, school is about to be in session.

"I brought my pencilllllllll..."

[JMon]

That is awesome, school is about to be in session.

"I brought my pencilllllllll..."

I hope so... no shortcut abbreviations in MLB.

[nash13]

D and p: D and p:W and p:runs <= 3

Easiest system I know. ROI is high enough, Big volume plays.

[nash13]

I am a big fan of plays with higher volume and good return. Low numbers are an indicator for random moves in my opinion.
So here are my fav Baseball plays (not all by me):

HF and p: HD and p: margin > 4

124-92 (0.73, 57.4%)	avg line: -135.7 / 124.5	on / against: -$332 / -$746	ROI: -1.1% / -3.5%
84-126-6 (-0.55, 40.0%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$5,360 / +$3,305	ROI: -22.7% / +13.8%

p: margin = 1 and pp: margin = 1 and F

297-264 (0.10, 52.9%)	avg line: -151.2 / 137.4	on / against: -$8,843 / +$5,515	ROI: -10.4% / +9.8%
250-283-27 (0.36, 46.9%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$5,780 / +$660	ROI: -9.4% / +1.1%

[figue]

I am a big fan of plays with higher volume and good return. Low numbers are an indicator for random moves in my opinion.
So here are my fav Baseball plays (not all by me):

HF and p: HD and p: margin > 4

124-92 (0.73, 57.4%)	avg line: -135.7 / 124.5	on / against: -$332 / -$746	ROI: -1.1% / -3.5%
84-126-6 (-0.55, 40.0%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$5,360 / +$3,305	ROI: -22.7% / +13.8%

p: margin = 1 and pp: margin = 1 and F

297-264 (0.10, 52.9%)	avg line: -151.2 / 137.4	on / against: -$8,843 / +$5,515	ROI: -10.4% / +9.8%
250-283-27 (0.36, 46.9%)	avg total: 8.7	over / under: -$5,780 / +$660	ROI: -9.4% / +1.1%

nice querys

[OLY]

http://killersports.com/mlb.py/trends?sid=guest

This is some cool stuff.

[Cougs]

JMon, I wanted to thank you for all your hard work, dedication and willingness to help everyone become smarter and more profitable! I stumbled upon SBR only a couple months ago, and thankfully, clicked on the NBA SDQL because it sounded analytical and evidence based as opposed to the numerous (and useless) "my picks", "LOCK OF THE DAY!", "guaranteed!" threads that populate this site (and are synonymous with losing strategies...). Also, much thanks to the others who contribute frequently (Mako, JAnthony, figue...and everyone else).

Anyways, on to my point. As it relates to this baseball season, you mentioned above that your approach is entirely different that the situational betting you do in the NBA and that you've been very profitable with high volume betting the last few years. Will your plan be to share your queries with us such that if we chose to, we could bet all the games that you plan to? I would suspect that if we only were privy to some queries, our variance would be much higher. Obviously you don't owe anything to anyone, so if you chose not to share all, I would have no reason to complain...I only ask so I can determine whether high volume betting is for me or not.

Lastly, the MLB SQDL bible with all the queries in there...are you a contributor to that? Would you recommend one to blindly be betting those queries??

Thanks so much...and as I continue to learn and create my own queries, I'll be sure to share!

Best of luck to all!

[JMon]

JMon, I wanted to thank you for all your hard work, dedication and willingness to help everyone become smarter and more profitable! I stumbled upon SBR only a couple months ago, and thankfully, clicked on the NBA SDQL because it sounded analytical and evidence based as opposed to the numerous (and useless) "my picks", "LOCK OF THE DAY!", "guaranteed!" threads that populate this site (and are synonymous with losing strategies...). Also, much thanks to the others who contribute frequently (Mako, JAnthony, figue...and everyone else).

Anyways, on to my point. As it relates to this baseball season, you mentioned above that your approach is entirely different that the situational betting you do in the NBA and that you've been very profitable with high volume betting the last few years. Will your plan be to share your queries with us such that if we chose to, we could bet all the games that you plan to? I would suspect that if we only were privy to some queries, our variance would be much higher. Obviously you don't owe anything to anyone, so if you chose not to share all, I would have no reason to complain...I only ask so I can determine whether high volume betting is for me or not.

Lastly, the MLB SQDL bible with all the queries in there...are you a contributor to that? Would you recommend one to blindly be betting those queries??

Thanks so much...and as I continue to learn and create my own queries, I'll be sure to share!

Best of luck to all!

Cougs thank you for the kind words. The main reason why I post here is to help. I am a high volume player in MLB simply as I have many many dog systems, or situations if you will, that I use. Majority of my plays are dogs, but I also have my share of favs and totals as well. I usually hit around 50-55% over the season, but one needs to keep in mind (ex., +110 ml = 47.62% break even). So over the course of the MLB season (and its many games) one can see how units will add up, hitting 55% as a majority dog player! Keep in mind a volume player is not for everyone, where there will be days were one will go 1-7 and another 6-2.

In this thread I will not post all my plays, nor situations, but will spot play with a play I like and give it's query. I will be more than happy to help any with MLB sdql, as one will find out (while the language and principle are similar) each sport and its use are different , or least it is for me.

As for as the MLB SQDL bible, there is some great stuff in there, but I would not blindly bet it or anything for that matter. However, it is a great tool to learn the language. I pay no mind to it now as I have my own database, but it was a tool for me years ago. And no I am not a contributor it.

Cheers

[Cougs]

Thanks for the heads up, JMon. You're doing great work...and quite frankly, you know that you don't owe anything to anyone! I will look to learn from what you (and others) post. Great work and continued luck!

[Tillos]

Hello. How do I type in 'no bigger'. For example; a team coming off an away favorite with a line no bigger than -145.

p:AF and p:line<-145??

[GiveMeaBJ]

So when do these come into effect? I am assuming can't just start on opening day or am I wrong?

[JMon]

Hello. How do I type in 'no bigger'. For example; a team coming off an away favorite with a line no bigger than -145.

p:AF and p:line<-145??

need to flip it around

p:AF and p:line>-145

[JMon]

So when do these come into effect? I am assuming can't just start on opening day or am I wrong?

one has to wait until the situations happen to be predictive for the next game.. usually takes awhile for, opening day NOPE unless you have "previous season" stat queries... example like a team with a win % of 55-60 last season during the first 15 games of the year. How do they perform. Those would get you opening day queries!

Off to the biz...gl

[green7]

Good day Guys.

Here's one.

month=4 and AD and day and division=o:division.

Yes, April is typically a good dog month in particular circumstances.....though from this query we can see certain days bringing the best results. My theory is that young guys will spend their weekends out chasing skirts and imbibing in their favorite beverages and their performance will not as good on the road during and afterwards. If anyone has any other ideas behind the discrepancy of performance of different days, I'd be interested in hearing what they have to say.