mlb chase 2013

**Stifler** · 07-01-13, 03:49 PM

Originally posted by Kevin Garnett

All right, under the s2 rules doesn't stand something of home/road games to separate them so I haven't use it.

Yes, but why you use these teams in s1, s2 and s3, no info of that.

backtested numbers over the last 7 years

**Kevin Garnett** · 07-01-13, 04:14 PM

Originally posted by Stifler

backtested numbers over the last 7 years

ok after which stats exactly? and why just 16 teams and not 17 in s3? I only want to follow why you have chosen these teams. think you get this question often in this thread cause you haven't explained it behind the listed teams on the first page!

**Stifler** · 07-01-13, 04:42 PM

Originally posted by Kevin Garnett

ok after which stats exactly? and why just 16 teams and not 17 in s3? I only want to follow why you have chosen these teams. think you get this question often in this thread cause you haven't explained it behind the listed teams on the first page!

U did not really ask this first question? I backtested every single team for the last 7 years based on the rules posted in post #1. I picked the teams listed cause the numbers were looking good to me.

**illisdre** · 07-01-13, 09:30 PM

Hey Stiff.. have you back-tested the system for the current 2013 season??

Im wondering how many units are guaranteed.
Just kidding - great work.

**Stifler** · 07-02-13, 04:12 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

01.07.2013

S3

(A Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,694 1,44u
(A Bet) Cin: Cincinnati 1,588 1,70u

records:
S1: W 26 | L 0 (+26,00 units)
S2: W 23 | L 3 (-10,001 units)
S3: W 131 | L 5 (-14,655 units)
P1: W 15 | L 1 (+6,971 units)
P2: W 23 | L 2 (+1,536 units)
P3: W 31 | L 0 (+31,00 units)

pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, D Bet on next start
- P3 Z.Greinke fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P1 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez fade, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 U.Jimenez, B Bet on next start

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 07-02-13, 05:44 AM

02.07.2013

S3

(A Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,813 1,23u

P2

(A Bet) J.Danks fade: Baltimore 1,847 1,18u

potential plays:
- S3 Balti fade, if line +100 or more

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Kevin Garnett** · 07-02-13, 05:47 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

U did not really ask this first question? I backtested every single team for the last 7 years based on the rules posted in post #1. I picked the teams listed cause the numbers were looking good to me.

ok, after which stats exactly have you chosen the teams on s3, there're a lot of stats a team can be seen as good: wins, played poffs the most etc.? that just interests me. on s1-2 is clear after the streaks stats.

btw, do you think the s1-3 systems will still go in the profits nearly 50 units (each) this season?

**Grinder12000** · 07-02-13, 06:43 AM

OOOO Let me answer this one.

The main stats used to choose S3. Are wins and losses from the past? Posters as always in posts # 1 -3

**Stifler** · 07-02-13, 09:03 AM

Originally posted by Kevin Garnett

ok, after which stats exactly have you chosen the teams on s3, there're a lot of stats a team can be seen as good: wins, played poffs the most etc.? that just interests me. on s1-2 is clear after the streaks stats.

System 3 (S3): Whenever a teams starts a home-trip and the odds are < +100 in the first game start the chase for the next 4 games. Whenever a team starts a road-trip and the odds are +100 or higher in the first game start the chase and fade that team.

THIS !!!! was backtested for every single team over the last 7 years in a 4 game chase. I picked out the best records and some additional small things such as performances for the S3 system for the last 3 years, which do have more impact than the stats 7 years ago. Is it clear now, cause i dont know what else to describe. Your thinking i just picked teams on S3 with a good W/L record over the season or smth like that. You should know that everything is based on the system rules, therefore every team in first place has the same "strength", it doesnt matter if they are a playoff team or w/e. All that matters is the performances based on the system rules.

btw, do you think the s1-3 systems will still go in the profits nearly 50 units (each) this season?

50 units each would mean 150 units alone for S1-S3. Keeping this pace long run will easily make u rich. But im not talking about what to expect overall. those backtested numbers are a little bit shady, thats what i can tell, you simply wont finish every season with that amount of units won. There is no guarantee for every season your turning a profit, we all know its hard enough winning with sports betting. let me tell you, if someone would guarantee +50 units every season (which is way way under the backtested numbers), im the first one to sign it.
Im calling every +100 units season a monster season, this is something you wont see that often as long as the units size isnt overpowered (with something like standard 10 unit bets, like some tout services do to praise their winning amounts).

So im trying to say i cant give any expectations on the winning amounts. All i can do is trying my best to finish +units. So far season works ok, with a series lost that would have cost a bit more when i reduced the bet amount by making a parlay (smart move there - i will always do so to save money if i feel i need to). There is an extra lost series, when i played Angels -1,5 (D bet) when they where winning with 1 run. Overall its just the Angels ruining a hammer season so far, but u gotta live with that...My best horse (S3) still needs to turn things around to make me feel a bit better.

**knugen** · 07-02-13, 09:40 AM

so stiff, are u still playing the Angels series or is it only for the record?

**Stifler** · 07-02-13, 10:29 AM

Originally posted by knugen

so stiff, are u still playing the Angels series or is it only for the record?

yes i do, otherwise i would have said something about skipping the series.

**aufordboy** · 07-02-13, 03:29 PM

Thanks Stifler - Keep up the great work

**Stifler** · 07-03-13, 02:22 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

02.07.2013

S3

(A Bet) LAA: LA Angels 1,813 1,23u

P2

(A Bet) J.Danks fade: Baltimore 1,847 1,18u

records:
S1: W 26 | L 0 (+26,00 units)
S2: W 23 | L 3 (-10,001 units)
S3: W 132 | L 5 (-13,655 units)
P1: W 15 | L 1 (+6,971 units)
P2: W 23 | L 2 (+1,536 units)
P3: W 31 | L 0 (+31,00 units)

pending:
- P2 J.Guthrie, D Bet on next start
- P3 Z.Greinke fade, B Bet on next start on the road
- P1 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez fade, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 U.Jimenez, B Bet on next start
- P2 J.Danks fade, B Bet on next start

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 07-03-13, 03:44 AM

- im playing the D bet for 2 units today

03.07.2013

P2

(D Bet) J.Guthrie: KC 2,52 0,658u | KC 1,758 2,187u | KC 2,16 3,315u | 2u play KC 1,862 9,466u
(A Bet) J.Guthrie fade: Cleveland 2,07 0,935u

P3

(B Bet) Z.Greinke fade: San Diego 2,09 0,917u | Colorado 2,05 1,826u
(A Bet) B.Norris fade: Tampa Bay 1,752 1,33u
(A Bet) J.Lester: Boston 1,549 1,82u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**jesramos** · 07-03-13, 12:20 PM

Stifler,

Question, what do you mean your playing 2 units on Guthrie today? Double the play? Thanks

**fizzer555** · 07-03-13, 03:29 PM

Originally posted by jesramos

Stifler,

Question, what do you mean your playing 2 units on Guthrie today? Double the play? Thanks

Stifler means that his stake of 9.466 units at odds of 1.862 on KC will be enough to make a 2 units profit on the chase rather than the normal 1 unit.

9.466 units @ 1.862 = 8.16 units profit on the d bet win

Previous lost stakes are 0.658 (A bet), 2.187 (B bet) and 3.315 (C bet) = 6.16 units lost

Profit if D bet wins = 2 units for the chase.

**jesramos** · 07-03-13, 04:11 PM

Got it, thanks !

**fitguy67** · 07-03-13, 09:24 PM

amazing work you got going here

1 question--and i did go bak to the beginning and look for the answer first--it's actually quite straightforward once the setup is made

Setup for the question: for the pitcher-based chases...when putting on a bet you need to specify that the key-pitcher indeed starts the game for his team of course...
some books give you 4 options for a game involving pitcher X and pitcher Y:
*both X and Y must start,
*only X must start/other side=action,
*only Y must start/other side=action,
*both sides=action

while others only give you two choices:
*listed pitcher (ie. both X & & must start),
*both sides=action

seems ideal to have a book where u can nail down the key-pitcher your chasing with action on whoever actually starts against him...but with some books best you could do is specify "listed must start"...problem being if the key guy starts and the other side changes pitchers...you will get "left out" of the game (catastrophic psychologically/financially if it's a winning "D" play)

Best thing, i think would be to make sure you play this system at a book that allows the "listed vs. action" option.
_________
The question: how (in general and in specific) to handle the "listed pitchers"/"action" option when placing a bet based on a pitcher system...to prevent being "left on" something you shouldn't play...or "left off" something you should play.

**Stifler** · 07-04-13, 03:09 AM

I do place the bets always with listed player has to start, even for the S1-S3 systems. It doesnt happen that often that the pitcher changes and the bet gets canceled, thats what i can tell playing it for the last 2 years.
For the pitcher system its always better to place the bet with "listed pitcher has to start" cause the whole system is based on pitchers starting a game. As for S1-S3 it only matters for a S3 A bets, cause lines decide if a series is going to be played or not (pitcher changes could change the line to a NO play or move it to a system play).

Hope this answers your question.

**Stifler** · 07-04-13, 03:19 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

03.07.2013

P2

(D Bet) J.Guthrie: KC 2,52 0,658u | KC 1,758 2,187u | KC 2,16 3,315u | 2u play KC 1,862 9,466u
(A Bet) J.Guthrie fade: Cleveland 2,07 0,935u

P3

(B Bet) Z.Greinke fade: San Diego 2,09 0,917u | Colorado 2,05 1,826u
(A Bet) B.Norris fade: Tampa Bay 1,752 1,33u
(A Bet) J.Lester: Boston 1,549 1,82u

records:
S1: W 26 | L 0 (+26,00 units)
S2: W 23 | L 3 (-10,001 units)
S3: W 132 | L 5 (-13,655 units)
P1: W 15 | L 1 (+6,971 units)
P2: W 24 | L 2 (+3,536 units)
P3: W 32 | L 0 (+32,00 units)

pending:
- P3 Z.Greinke fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P1 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez fade, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 U.Jimenez, B Bet on next start
- P2 J.Danks fade, B Bet on next start
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start @home

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 07-04-13, 04:06 AM

04.07.2013

S2

(A Bet) Ari fade: NY Mets 2,05 0,952u

P1

(B Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland -1,5 2,46 0,685u | Cleveland 2,36 1,239u

P3

(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 2,36 0,735u
(A Bet) T.Wood fade: Oakland - no line up atm

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 07-04-13, 10:00 AM

- Oakland line added.

04.07.2013

S2

(A Bet) Ari fade: NY Mets 2,05 0,952u

P1

(B Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland -1,5 2,46 0,685u | Cleveland 2,36 1,239u

P3

(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 2,36 0,735u
(A Bet) T.Wood fade: Oakland 1,6671,50u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Kevin Garnett** · 07-04-13, 10:20 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

System 3 (S3): Whenever a teams starts a home-trip and the odds are < +100 in the first game start the chase for the next 4 games. Whenever a team starts a road-trip and the odds are +100 or higher in the first game start the chase and fade that team.

THIS !!!! was backtested for every single team over the last 7 years in a 4 game chase. I picked out the best records and some additional small things such as performances for the S3 system for the last 3 years, which do have more impact than the stats 7 years ago. Is it clear now, cause i dont know what else to describe. Your thinking i just picked teams on S3 with a good W/L record over the season or smth like that. You should know that everything is based on the system rules, therefore every team in first place has the same "strength", it doesnt matter if they are a playoff team or w/e. All that matters is the performances based on the system rules.

50 units each would mean 150 units alone for S1-S3. Keeping this pace long run will easily make u rich. But im not talking about what to expect overall. those backtested numbers are a little bit shady, thats what i can tell, you simply wont finish every season with that amount of units won. There is no guarantee for every season your turning a profit, we all know its hard enough winning with sports betting. let me tell you, if someone would guarantee +50 units every season (which is way way under the backtested numbers), im the first one to sign it.
Im calling every +100 units season a monster season, this is something you wont see that often as long as the units size isnt overpowered (with something like standard 10 unit bets, like some tout services do to praise their winning amounts).

So im trying to say i cant give any expectations on the winning amounts. All i can do is trying my best to finish +units. So far season works ok, with a series lost that would have cost a bit more when i reduced the bet amount by making a parlay (smart move there - i will always do so to save money if i feel i need to). There is an extra lost series, when i played Angels -1,5 (D bet) when they where winning with 1 run. Overall its just the Angels ruining a hammer season so far, but u gotta live with that...My best horse (S3) still needs to turn things around to make me feel a bit better.

Thanks, it's clear now. Now I can make backtests myself. That's what I am looking for. If in 2 years maybe you will be off this forum, no one can explain after which stats the teams should be chosen.

yeah it's still good 150 units per season, i would sign this too. only have wondered of s3 not at the other twos because after your tested stats back to 2006 screenshot there was never a loss season. minimum profit was 79,18 units. after the stats it only can get better for you, I also hope s3 will get up cause this is to date the most solid of the 3 s.

**Stifler** · 07-05-13, 02:23 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

04.07.2013

S2

(A Bet) Ari fade: NY Mets 2,05 0,952u

P1

(B Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland -1,5 2,46 0,685u | Cleveland 2,36 1,239u

P3

(A Bet) U.Jimenez: Cleveland 2,36 0,735u
(A Bet) T.Wood fade: Oakland 1,6671,50u

records:
S1: W 26 | L 0 (+26,00 units)
S2: W 23 | L 3 (-10,001 units)
S3: W 132 | L 5 (-13,655 units)
P1: W 15 | L 1 (+6,971 units)
P2: W 24 | L 2 (+3,536 units)
P3: W 33 | L 0 (+33,00 units)

pending:
- P3 Z.Greinke fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P1 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P2 M.Buehrle, C Bet on next start
- P3 G.Gonzalez fade, B Bet on next start @home
- P1 U.Jimenez, C Bet on next start
- P2 J.Danks fade, B Bet on next start
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start @home
- P3 U.Jimenez, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Ari fade, B Bet on 19.07.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 07-05-13, 03:34 AM

05.07.2013

S3

(A Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,526 1,90u
(A Bet) Hou fade: Texas 1,513 1,95u
(A Bet) Bos fade: LA Angels 1,658 1,52u

P1

(C Bet) M.Buerhle: Toronto 2,20 0,833u | Toronto 2,27 1,443u | Toronto -1,5 2,13 2,899u

P2

(C Bet) M.Buerhle: Toronto 2,20 0,833u| Toronto 2,27 1,443u | Toronto 1,556 5,892u
(A Bet) G.Gonzalez: Washington 1,633 1,58u

P3

(B Bet) G.Gonzalez fade: Arizona 2,29 0,775u | San Diego 2,46 1,216u

potential plays:
- S3 NYY, if line <+100
- S3 SF, if line <+100
- S3 oak fade, if line +100 or more

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 07-05-13, 10:12 AM

- S3 SF & NYY series added. NYY didnt hit the <+100 mark on covers, but i think it will, so im taking the better line.

05.07.2013

S3

(A Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,526 1,90u
(A Bet) Hou fade: Texas 1,513 1,95u
(A Bet) Bos fade: LA Angels 1,658 1,52u
(A Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,80 1,25u
(A Bet) NYY: Yankees 1,99 1,01u

P1

(C Bet) M.Buerhle: Toronto 2,20 0,833u | Toronto 2,27 1,443u | Toronto -1,5 2,13 2,899u

P2

(C Bet) M.Buerhle: Toronto 2,20 0,833u| Toronto 2,27 1,443u | Toronto 1,556 5,892u
(A Bet) G.Gonzalez: Washington 1,633 1,58u

P3

(B Bet) G.Gonzalez fade: Arizona 2,29 0,775u | San Diego 2,46 1,216u

potential plays:
- S3 oak fade, if line +100 or more

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**knugen** · 07-05-13, 12:16 PM

thx stiff, hope toronto make it tonight

**knugen** · 07-06-13, 04:48 AM

good night, thanks again stiffler

**Stifler** · 07-06-13, 07:09 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

05.07.2013

S3

(A Bet) TB: Tampa Bay 1,526 1,90u
(A Bet) Hou fade: Texas 1,513 1,95u
(A Bet) Bos fade: LA Angels 1,658 1,52u
(A Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,80 1,25u
(A Bet) NYY: Yankees 1,99 1,01u

P1

(C Bet) M.Buerhle: Toronto 2,20 0,833u | Toronto 2,27 1,443u | Toronto -1,5 2,13 2,899u

P2

(C Bet) M.Buerhle: Toronto 2,20 0,833u| Toronto 2,27 1,443u | Toronto 1,556 5,892u
(A Bet) G.Gonzalez: Washington 1,633 1,58u

P3

(B Bet) G.Gonzalez fade: Arizona 2,29 0,775u | San Diego 2,46 1,216u

records:
S1: W 26 | L 0 (+26,00 units)
S2: W 23 | L 3 (-10,001 units)
S3: W 135 | L 5 (-10,655 units)
P1: W 16 | L 1 (+7,971 units)
P2: W 26 | L 2 (+5,536 units)
P3: W 33 | L 0 (+33,00 units)

pending:
- P3 Z.Greinke fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 G.Gonzalez fade, C Bet on next start @home
- P1 U.Jimenez, C Bet on next start
- P2 J.Danks fade, B Bet on next start
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start @home
- P3 U.Jimenez, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Ari fade, B Bet on 19.07.2013
- S3 Bos fade, B Bet on 06.07.2013
- S3 SF, B Bet on 06.07.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 07-06-13, 07:13 AM

On a sidenote, Yankees series shouldnt be a play, cause line moved back to >=+100. I will take the extra win!

**Stifler** · 07-06-13, 07:38 AM

06.07.2013

S3

(B Bet) Bos fade: LA Angels 1,658 1,52u | LA Angels - no line up atm
(B Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,80 1,25u | San Francisco 1,625 3,60u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Stifler** · 07-06-13, 09:26 AM

- Angels line added.

06.07.2013

S3

(B Bet) Bos fade: LA Angels 1,658 1,52u | LA Angels 1,943 2,672u
(B Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,80 1,25u | San Francisco 1,625 3,60u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Grinder12000** · 07-06-13, 09:37 AM

Side note - I've been fading the Chi White Sox the last 18 games and have won 13 of those! Can't see things changing.

Bost vs. LAA - are there two hotter teams in MLB? nope!

**knugen** · 07-07-13, 01:30 AM

haha what a comeback by angels

**Stifler** · 07-07-13, 05:25 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

06.07.2013

S3

(B Bet) Bos fade: LA Angels 1,658 1,52u | LA Angels 1,943 2,672u
(B Bet) SF: San Francisco 1,80 1,25u | San Francisco 1,625 3,60u

records:
S1: W 26 | L 0 (+26,00 units)
S2: W 23 | L 3 (-10,001 units)
S3: W 137 | L 5 (-8,655 units)
P1: W 16 | L 1 (+7,971 units)
P2: W 26 | L 2 (+5,536 units)
P3: W 33 | L 0 (+33,00 units)

pending:
- P3 Z.Greinke fade, C Bet on next start on the road
- P3 G.Gonzalez fade, C Bet on next start @home
- P1 U.Jimenez, C Bet on next start
- P2 J.Danks fade, B Bet on next start
- P2 J.Guthrie fade, B Bet on next start
- P3 B.Norris fade, B Bet on next start @home
- P3 U.Jimenez, B Bet on next start on the road
- S2 Ari fade, B Bet on 19.07.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3