mlb chase 2013

**Wallco99** · 04-15-13, 07:02 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Its like having a token black guy at a party... These trolls are getting pissed off at each other cause they are not getting enough attention

Did you really just say that? WOW.

**alexknyc** · 04-15-13, 07:24 PM

Originally posted by Wallco99

Did you really just say that? WOW.

That was my exact reaction as well.

And the analogy doesn't even make sense.

**rustie** · 04-15-13, 07:43 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Its like having a token black guy at a party... These trolls are getting pissed off at each other cause they are not getting enough attention

WoW man,care to explain? Just wrong!!!!!!!!!

**imotiv8** · 04-15-13, 07:56 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

Its like having a token black guy at a party... These trolls are getting pissed off at each other cause they are not getting enough attention

Wow! Told me everything i need to know about you

**comala57** · 04-15-13, 08:47 PM

I feel like I should apologize to Stifler for the direction his thread turned today and wasn't even involved.

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-15-13, 08:51 PM

thought I was banned for a second for that post.. took like 8 tries to login some reason... Yes, was not the best analogy, but reverse psychology worked cause trolls stopped posting. What I meant was trolls were angry at each other cause one troll was getting more attention than the other. Whatever though.. call me racist if you want, just hear to make money and have fun!

**Grinder12000** · 04-15-13, 08:53 PM

Changing the subject here a tad - as you might expect I've been studying last years MLB Chase, I'm only in late August but I wanted to see how long it took LAST year to make up for a big "D" loss.

Starting with Chase #55(ish) we went into a 60 unit tail spin which so far is the biggest multi-unit drop as we dropped two "D" games in a span of 3 days. It took about 130 total games wagered to make that up. It looks, ON AVERAGE, to take about 50 total wagers to make up a big 30 unit drop.

Another thing - not all "D" losses are devastating. There were a number of 3 unit "D" loss games

In case anyone is wondering - "E" games taking both years are 3-2 so, we would have to have "F" games :-)

BTW - JMD was talking about a black guy smoking weed - what are you guys talking about? :-) Come on - no one can complain about what JMD said. sheesh! talk about up tight. No one said anything about the "retard" comment and that is SO much worse!

**CrazyCarl** · 04-15-13, 10:35 PM

Originally posted by J.M. Disciple

thought I was banned for a second for that post.. took like 8 tries to login some reason... Yes, was not the best analogy, but reverse psychology worked cause trolls stopped posting. What I meant was trolls were angry at each other cause one troll was getting more attention than the other. Whatever though.. call me racist if you want, just hear to make money and have fun!

You thought you'd be banned for making a 'token black guy' analogy?

Have you ever visited players talk?

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-15-13, 11:10 PM

com'on where are your

ladies... com'on dodgers!!!

**calebepley93** · 04-15-13, 11:59 PM

Omg some1 said something about a black guy let comment on how racist you are to prove how tolerant and not racist i am omg

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-16-13, 12:13 AM

Originally posted by calebepley93

Omg some1 said something about a black guy let comment on how racist you are to prove how tolerant and not racist i am omg

what???

on topic.... LAD 2 stranded with 1 out in the 8th

**cards2013** · 04-16-13, 12:37 AM

you even watch those games? who gives a damn if they win or not, sure would be nice, but its a 4 game chase, so I dont sweat and if SD wins, nice win for them
btw XXX looks like a play too

**cards2013** · 04-16-13, 12:50 AM

friday will be a huge day with potentially more than 10 plays!

**Stifler** · 04-16-13, 02:37 AM

Originally posted by Stifler

15.04.2013

S3

(A Bet) Tor: Toronto 1,73 1,37u
(A Bet) SD fade: LA Dodgers 1,526 1,90u

records:
S1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
S2: W 1 | L 0 (+1,00 units)
S3: W 27 | L 1 (-9,503 units)
P1: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P2: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)
P3: W 0 | L 0 (0 units)

pending:
- S3 SD fade, B Bet on 16.04.2013

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Grinder12000** · 04-16-13, 06:17 AM

friday will be a huge day with potentially more than 10 plays!

First day of series are always big days. 10 games is not uncommon.

**Stifler** · 04-16-13, 08:00 AM

16.04.2013

S3

(B Bet) SD fade: LA Dodgers 1,526 1,90u | LA Dodgers 1,549 5,282u
(A Bet) Balti: Baltimore 1,813 1,23u

________________________________________ _____________________________________

all rules and qualifying teams for every system can be found on post #1-3

**Want2Win** · 04-16-13, 09:00 AM

Thanks Sifler for this thread and the NBA. I have been writing to SBR and talking on the chat help to try to figure out why I can't give any points anymore. They are still trying to figure out what is wrong with my account I guess, but just know your hard work is appreciated!

**Grinder12000** · 04-16-13, 11:13 AM

In case anyone is wondering just how big our "D" loss was this year. It was the largest ever in live play.

A typical D loss is normally between.

The average TOTAL unit loss in a chase is 20.86 units

**DocZ** · 04-16-13, 11:31 AM

Thanks for the info Grinder. Do you have the range of the D bets losses? Looks like you started to add that info and then got sidetracked.

**BigBanker** · 04-16-13, 11:32 AM

I have a question if anyone can help me. When I go to bet an amount and the line has changed to different than stifflers what is the easy way to calculate how much I have to put on to make the amount I need to win to make 1unit or 1unit +losses. Thanks in advance.

**Grinder12000** · 04-16-13, 12:40 PM

European or American lines. I know Stifler posts European lines which are just weird (but a better format) then American style lines.

Doc. On it, can't post the graph at the moment, later tonight. It's a pretty even distribution from 36ish to 4ish.

**cwin32** · 04-16-13, 12:40 PM

Originally posted by BigBanker

I have a question if anyone can help me. When I go to bet an amount and the line has changed to different than stifflers what is the easy way to calculate how much I have to put on to make the amount I need to win to make 1unit or 1unit +losses. Thanks in advance.

Add the amount you lost to whatever you unit amount is and bet to win that amount.

**BigBanker** · 04-16-13, 01:10 PM

European lines. and yes I know add amount to what I lost + how much to win 1 unit but how do I find out what the exact amount is pretty quickly by using some sort of math is the question I am asking

**BigBanker** · 04-16-13, 01:18 PM

Maybe stiffler can tell me when you read this. Thanks.

**Stifler** · 04-16-13, 01:51 PM

Originally posted by BigBanker

Maybe stiffler can tell me when you read this. Thanks.

example for todays game (lets make it easy with 100€ = 1unit)

(B Bet) SD fade: LA Dodgers 1,526 1,90u | LA Dodgers 1,549 5,282u

A Bet line was 1,526:
x = 100€ / 0,526
x= 190€ (= 1,9 units)

B Bet line today is 1,549:
x = (190€+100€) / 0,549
x = 290€ / 0,549
x = 528,23 € (= 5,282 units)

just replace ur unit amount with the 100 and u should get ur risked amount. But remember im posting the lines i locked in the game, your lines could be different. But u have the math above.

**samrock67** · 04-16-13, 02:05 PM

SBR has an odds converter somewhere...in case u want to know what kind of line the posted one translates into

**KATCHASE** · 04-16-13, 02:12 PM

Originally posted by BigBanker

I have a question if anyone can help me. When I go to bet an amount and the line has changed to different than stifflers what is the easy way to calculate how much I have to put on to make the amount I need to win to make 1unit or 1unit +losses. Thanks in advance.

Simply divide the total dollar amount you need to win by the decimal portion of the odds.

For example, if you want to win $15.40 on a game at odds of 1.55, divide $15.40 by 0.55. This will give you $28 which is the amount you need to wager to profit $15.40.

Hope this helps.

**BigBanker** · 04-16-13, 02:16 PM

Thanks guys knew there was an easy way lol

**ExodusNZ** · 04-16-13, 02:19 PM

Formula is

= Amount to win [1 unit] / ( Odds -1 )

As per Stiflers post

A Bet line was 1.526:
= $100 / (1.526 - 1)
Bet $190 to win $100 [1 unit]

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-16-13, 03:20 PM

It should take less time to do add up your A and B loss +100 to get C.
A = -$126
b = -$285
C = (126 +285 +100) to win $537.

Whats so hard about that? Unless you have a million plays on your spread sheet should be easy to go back and back track. Took a whole 15 seconds...

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-16-13, 03:24 PM

Originally posted by cards2013

you even watch those games? who gives a damn if they win or not, sure would be nice, but its a 4 game chase, so I dont sweat and if SD wins, nice win for them
btw XXX looks like a play too

Who gives a damn if we lose A, B, or C.. as long as we win D right? After all its a four game chase and there is nothing to sweat right? I didn't say I was sweating the game. Its called ENJOYING THE GAME! Maybe you need a hug or some thing, because you came in here past two days either insulting or acting like a child.

I am sure everyone who bet the game gives a damn about winning it. If you dont give a damn about losing the game than obviously dont care about a losing season either. Just flush money down the toilet right? There is always D E F to make it all back... Please learn to enjoy the game or stfu. No one gives a damn about your off topic comments and how you dont care about losing money.

**Bawth** · 04-16-13, 05:14 PM

Isnt the easiest way is to multiply your unit by what ever stifler posts? (5,282u, Unit x 5.282) Unless the line changes drastically i think you should just multiply.

**Grinder12000** · 04-16-13, 05:41 PM

I'm a little confused with Stiflers chart that is posted at the beginning of this thread - HOWEVER the final units +/- match on his final post last year with what I came up with. Plus looking at every post no one ever complained about results which is a good sign.

His chart has "D" games going 11-5 when in reality they were more like 9-8 according to last years thread - his +128 units is in line with actual results which he says most people would be +11 more units and that is correct as I came up with +138ish units.

I feel this is a great thing as I would expect "D" games to be a little more then 50%. If the system was hitting 80% on "D" games I would be VERY cautious. Chase systems take mediocre handicapping, raise the risk level to an extreme and creates a winning system - it at least that is the theory. (If a system actually picked winners all the time there would be no need for a chase).

ANYWAY - looking at ALL "D" games win or lose here is the breakdown chart of what that last "D" bet would be AND if you lost what the total units lose for the chase would have been.

Vertical Units

Of note there are 6 final games with <6 units and 6 games with >25 units.

Average is about 20 units in a "D" game loss, IF all "D" games lost.

**J.M. Disciple** · 04-16-13, 06:05 PM

D bets are actually only 67% for s1-s3 based on stiflers record over past 5 years. A (58%) B (57%) C (64%) D (67%).

**DocZ** · 04-16-13, 06:14 PM

Thanks Grinder. That is way better than I thought it would be.

I think his first charting in this years thread is talking about the teams that would qualify for this years chase. I was confused as well but then realized he dumped some of the poorly performing teams and added some new ones. So the units refer to the back testing using the teams in this years chase.