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Maple Leaf vs. Bruins Predictions & Odds: Tuesday's NHL Playoffs Expert Picks

Gary Pearson

Last Updated: April 30, 2024 5:46 PM EDT • 3 min 30 sec read.

Simon Benoit checks Brad Marchand of the Boston Bruins as we make our expert predictions for Game 5 of the first round series between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Boston Bruins.
Simon Benoit checks Brad Marchand of the Boston Bruins during the second period in Game 2 of the 2024 Stanley Cup Playoffs at the TD Garden on April 22, 2024 in Boston, Massachusetts. The Maple Leafs won 3-2. Photo by Rich Gagnon/Getty Images/AFP via AFP

Down 3-1 against the Boston Bruins, the Toronto Maple Leafs face a do-or-die scenario in Game 5 in Boston on Tuesday, and we have our expert Maple Leafs-Bruins predictions based on the best NHL odds. 

Once again, the Toronto Maple Leafs (46-26-10) find themselves on the brink of postseason elimination in a familiar scenario.

Struggling to find the back of the net against the Boston Bruins (47-20-15), the Maple Leafs have only mustered seven goals across four playoff games.

As they gear up for Tuesday's Game 5 in Boston, the Bruins are heavily favored at -160, with the puck set to drop at 7 p.m. ET at TD Garden in Boston, Mass.

Following their disappointing defeat in Game 4, the Maple Leafs' Stanley Cup odds are teetering on the edge.

Despite their current plight, Sheldon Keefe's squad displayed resilience on the road during the regular season. They'll be aiming to channel the spirit of their Game 2 performance at TD Garden to extend their postseason journey.

Here are our best Maple Leafs vs. Bruins predictions and NHL picks (odds via our best NHL betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Game 5 expert picks

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Maple Leafs vs. Bruins predictions for Tuesday

Bruins first to 3 goals ⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Bruins have figured out the perfect formula for offsetting the Maple Leafs' offensive threat. Their lethal power play is 6-for-13 thus far, scoring at least one goal with the man advantage in each game.

Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs' power play has been floundering while going 1-for-15. The Bruins' unit is responsible for six of the team's 14 goals during the series. 

The Maple Leafs have scored more than two goals against the Bruins in just two of the previous eight matchups. The first period will be critical for the visitors, who will play with added desperation. However, they haven't scored three against Boston netminder Jeremy Swayman since the 2021-22 season.

The -102 odds at Betway imply a win probability of 50.50%. A winning $10 bet pays a profit of $9.80. 

Best odds: -102 via Betway

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Maple Leafs Under 2.5⭐⭐⭐⭐

The Maple Leafs' offensive woes against the Bruins have become offensive to fans. While you'd expect Toronto's offense to break out eventually, that doesn't look promising, especially while facing Swayman. The Bruins' goalie should start in Game 5 after forcing head coach Jim Montgomery's hand with his otherworldly play against Toronto.  

Swayman has won all three playoff starts and hasn't allowed more than two goals against the Maple Leafs in seven successive outings. He's conceded just one goal in four of the previous five starts and nine in the last seven against the Buds. Swayman has also won his last seven matchups versus the Maple Leafs.

The 25-year-old has taken up residence in the cerebral cortex of every Leafs player. Until that changes, don't let your confidence in Swayman sway. A $10 winning bet at Betway yields a $10 profit with a 50% implied probability. 

Best odds: +100 via Betway

Jake DeBrusk Over 0.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Jake DeBrusk saves his best hockey for the Maple Leafs. He has 11 points in the last eight games against the Maple Leafs, including five so far in this series. Of the eight head-to-head contests since the start of the 2023-24 regular season, Game 4 in Toronto was the only outing he failed to notch at least one point.

DeBrusk is an influential member of the B's scorching-hot power play. He also plays on a line with Brad Marchand, who, aside from Swayman, has been the series' best player, scoring eight points in four contests.

Betway offers -105 odds for DeBrusk to get back on the scoresheet on Tuesday, which would pay a profit of $9.52 on a $10 winning bet. The -105 odds imply a 51.22% probability. 

Best odds: -105 via Betway

Maple Leafs Over 31.5 shots ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Desperation mode for the Maple Leafs should result in more pucks being fired toward goal, regardless of whether Swayman or Linus Ullmark is between the pipes. Keefe's team failed to get at least 32 shots on goal in both encounters in Toronto and will do everything they can to put more pressure on the Bruins' seemingly unflappable netminders.

The Maple Leafs hit the Over on this number in Games 1 and 2 in Boston. Look for them to do the same in a must-have Game 5. The -118 odds have a 54.13% implied probability. A winning $10 wager will yield an $8.47 profit. 

Best odds: -118 via Betway

Maple Leafs vs. Bruins Game 5 info & odds

  • When: Tuesday, April 30 at 7 p.m. ET
  • Where: TD Garden, Boston, Mass.
  • How to watch: ESPN, Sportsnet
  • Favorite: Bruins (-160 via Betway)

Maple Leafs-Bruins predictions made Monday at 11 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Gary Pearson
Gary Pearson is a sports writer specializing in hockey, soccer, NFL, and tennis coverage. He has 10 years of industry experience and has contributed to various publications, including BetMGM, Covers.com, the Hockey Writers, Yardbarker, NJ.com, the Miami Herald, the Canadian Press, and the Calgary Herald.