Originally Posted by
McBa1n
As far as NFL cappers go - they ALL lose badly. LT Profits is solid - not great, as we disagree a ton - but solid.
For college - Pags was the BEST, too bad he got chased off. Not only a solid capper - a solid guy. You won, over the season, with him, IMO, it wasn't for the WTF morons that pollute these boards that chased him off.
No reason why, no idea if he still posts, but Pavyracer was a good 'impulse' betting person. Again - don't follow who or who doesn't post.
Just saying, the NFL side is INCREDIBLY weak on these forums. I can pick off of my hand the nice cappers in the sport (Darkhorse is another).
The NFL is impossible for the average punter. But I figure, if you're not doing your homework on the NFL, of course you're getting abused.
The NFL is ALL i bet. I'm wrong a ton, but I've never got broke norst had a losing season playing it.
It requires, IMO, EVERYTHING you got to be great at. It also requires a TON of film study and also strong math. You will lose a ton in some instances - but get paid off playing dogs in the NFL. It's ALL about matchups. With NFL.com having a sub that INCLUDES the 22 man cam - it SHOULD make it easier on us. Sorry if I sound like a shill (I'm not, I won't pay it, it's too much, for my style) - but studying games with that tape is NOTHING us punters have EVER seen - don't care how many times you rewound a play... You do not see the 22 cam. That, IMO, is how you evaluate the NFL. I disagree SHARPLY with the spreadsheet/math guys on the NFL over this and always will. If they get paid? good. If I get paid - better. IMO, the NFL is won/lost on the field, not probability. I believe that. I think you have to study players and also pay in mind WHERE said players are playing at that time. There's a f-ton of value on dogs and the o/u numbers - you just have to do the work. VERY few NFL 'people' do that work on these forums, at least, that post. I trust in those that do, but I do not track them. To me, the magic bullet in the NFL is a 60 hour+ week studiying film and you MAY hit the magic 53 percent+.
It's hard, but if you work HARD, you can get there. That all said, my published picks MAYBE are 20 percent in the NFL.
Superstition, I figure, for me. That's why I keep quiet, mostly.