[SportsPicks3434]

OPENING:

I requested the MODS lock my original thread so that I can easily and better explain my plays without all of the clutter which my other thread may and did cause. I am not here to post false statements and false facts. I am here to provide a NCAAF wagering angle I have discovered that is second to none. I play with software daily as I am a junkie for sports software and sports database. I use many different angles when selecting plays and I would like to share with you the best and by far the most successfull wagering angle for College Football. I will not post the specifics about the this certain angle but i will provide the backtested results. If you would like to have a season preview for any NCAAF team let me know and I will post what one of my database's provides. I am a real person that posts honestly and if you are skeptical then do not use this info for wagering purposes but I can tell you that these are real results.


NCAAF Wagering Angle past results:

I had the results back-tested on the exact plays I will be posting this season and here they are. Over the past 8 years the overal record for these plays are 125-10-3, 90.6%. These results are back-tested for a span of 8 years which is a very good standard and time frame to judge the wagering angle and the results. Believe it or not this is true. These plays have made me money in the past and I would not post if it wans't accurate. This is accurate and it is real. Again I have many different wagering angles I use to make all my plays but this is the strongest that I have discovered and that is why i will share it with everyone this season. If there are people who, at season's end is interested and make money on what I post this season, next season i will add more plays using other successfull wagering angles. As you can see there are a total of 138 plays for the past 8 years which, on average is about 17.25 plays per season. I may post 15 plays this season or I may post 30 plays this season...it just depends. I would say I should have at least 20 plays which is 1-2 plays per week. Please keep in mind their might be a week I don't have any plays using this certain wagering angle, it just depends. I also can't promise a certain time frame that I post the plays. They may be posted early in the week or late in the week.

CLOSING:

If you have any questions please ask and i will answer promptly. Please keep the thread clean and friendly. Again I do not post false statements as mentioned in the other thread. These plays I will be posting are from time and effort and as you can and will see have results that are second to none. We are all here for the same purpose...keep that in mind.

[SportsPicks3434]

Keep in mind also that with 50-75 games per week in College Football the oddsmakers aren't correct with every line they post...If they were we would be broke. Our job is to find the right angles that are the most successfull year end, year out. Good luck this season and ask away with any questions you may have.

[SportsPicks3434]

If requested i will post all my plays in this thread but for now I will just keep the plays as mentioned above.

[AdamL2424]

What do you think of USCvsHawaii? Anything under 17 and im gonna jump on it. I have to add that im ALL USC but im not a total homer..... didnt bet on them at all last year.

[SportsPicks3434]

What do you think of USCvsHawaii? Anything under 17 and im gonna jump on it. I have to add that im ALL USC but im not a total homer..... didnt bet on them at all last year.

To be honest it's still a little early for me to give a opinion on any games/plays at this time. Also I do not give opinions on games that I am not playing...it would just take to much of my time.

[SportsPicks3434]

We all know the oddsmakers can NOT be right on all spreads for all games based on the number of games played each week. Well, through time I have found an angle which has been lights out and has shown a proven real weakness with the books for 8 years of backtesting and the record that I posted in my first post is real and accurate and you will see it in action this season. If you don't play the games I post I can guarentee you won't pass up the opportunity next season...do the math....based on the past 8 seasons if I post 30 games and we have a win rate of lets say 80%, the record will reflect 24-6 for 30 games. If it stays true at a 90% win rate we will see a record at a astounding 27-3. Believe me...it has happened and will happen...BOL everyone!

[Fischnasty]

ill definitely be checking your thread. good luck man.

[fishmonger]

is this system strictly statistical or does it factor in rivals, look ahead games, and sandwich games? Just asking to see what kind of system it would be. Or does it factor all that?

[SportsPicks3434]

ill definitely be checking your thread. good luck man.

[SportsPicks3434]

is this system strictly statistical or does it factor in rivals, look ahead games, and sandwich games? Just asking to see what kind of system it would be. Or does it factor all that?

Several variables are factored in with determining these plays. Home/Away, Point Spread, certain statistical data, a trend or two are all factors including a few others. I really do not want to get into how I arrive at these plays not to be rude or anything. I know its hard to tail without having some information but i just would rather not get into detail. If anyone is reluctant at all just play them all for a small amount to start and once you see the wins I will provide raise your stakes higher. I dont mind sharing some of my handicapping techniques but with some angles of wagering I dont care to share them at this time.

I will put it this way. I post MLB, NCAAB and NBA plays during those respective seasons BUT those sports in my mind are harder to handicap by yourself due to the fact that there are games EVERYDAY night in and night out. NCAAF and the NFL are by far my best sports to handicap because games are mostly played once per week and that allows me more time to handicap each matchup more in dept and provides more time to fist through many many more trends and angles. Hope that makes sense. I understand their will be skeptics (not you) and thats fine....I invite them to this thread anytime for their opinions.

BOL to you.

[fishmonger]

fair enough. see you when the season starts

[SportsPicks3434]

[limitation]

Will you be posting which plays are stronger to play at more units? Or you play all of them at same units? Do you like playing with 2-3 teams parlay? Or they are all just straight up? Looking forward to your thread in new season.

[SportsPicks3434]

Will you be posting which plays are stronger to play at more units? Or you play all of them at same units? Do you like playing with 2-3 teams parlay? Or they are all just straight up? Looking forward to your thread in new season.

Thanks for your questions. First this thread will focus and will have a HEAVY lean towards the plays that are defined in post #1. I will post my units and types of plays before the season starts, sometime at the end of August but since you asked I will also post it now. Below I will explain my plays and units and how I will categorize them:

1. My first set of plays will be 1 (one) unit each and they will consist of plays that I cap and have strong angles attatched to them which make them a play. I must cap them as a play and they must certain other criteria. These are strong plays but since they are not the focus of the plays posted in post #1 they will be played for 1 (one) unit.

2. My second set of plays will be 2.5 units each and they will be the exact plays defined in post #1 but they will be money line plays. These plays have had a 70%-80% win rate straight up...keep in mind that record is backtested over the past 8 years and they will be all UNDERDOG Money line plays.

3. My third set of plays are my biggest plays and they will be 5 units each. These plays are the plays defined in post #1 and they are pointspread plays meaning using the spread. These plays are also the same side as the plays in section #2 above.


The highlighted plays above are the focus of this thread and are my biggest plays in this thread. If you play any of my plays I would definately play the plays that are highlighted above. hope that answeres your question.

I do not play parlays in NCAAF or the NFL. All my plays are played with the units above. Each unit for me is $100.00.

BOL to you and I look foward to your comments this season.

[SportsPicks3434]

I mean to highlight bullet #2 and #3 above. Sorry its late.

[SportsPicks3434]

Thanks for your questions. First this thread will focus and will have a HEAVY lean towards the plays that are defined in post #1. I will post my units and types of plays before the season starts, sometime at the end of August but since you asked I will also post it now. Below I will explain my plays and units and how I will categorize them:

1. My first set of plays will be 1 (one) unit each and they will consist of plays that I cap and have strong angles attatched to them which make them a play. I must cap them as a play and they must certain other criteria. These are strong plays but since they are not the focus of the plays posted in post #1 they will be played for 1 (one) unit.

2. My second set of plays will be 2.5 units each and they will be the exact plays defined in post #1 but they will be money line plays. These plays have had a 70%-80% win rate straight up...keep in mind that record is backtested over the past 8 years and they will be all UNDERDOG Money line plays.

3. My third set of plays are my biggest plays and they will be 5 units each. These plays are the plays defined in post #1 and they are pointspread plays meaning using the spread. These plays are also the same side as the plays in section #2 above.


The highlighted plays above are the focus of this thread and are my biggest plays in this thread. If you play any of my plays I would definately play the plays that are highlighted above. hope that answeres your question.

I do not play parlays in NCAAF or the NFL. All my plays are played with the units above. Each unit for me is $100.00.

BOL to you and I look foward to your comments this season.

[SportsPicks3434]

***Again if you have a team you would like more info about for the upcomming season post the team and I will provide it for you.***

[SportsPicks3434]

Will you be posting which plays are stronger to play at more units? Or you play all of them at same units? Do you like playing with 2-3 teams parlay? Or they are all just straight up? Looking forward to your thread in new season.

I will also post a few futures for this season including the team I have picked and played to win the BCS Championship game.

[limitation]

Thanks for answering my questions. Appreciate it!

[SportsPicks3434]

Thanks for answering my questions. Appreciate it!

[Wrecktangle]

Sportspicks, did you post your picks last year somewheres?

[SportsPicks3434]

Sportspicks, did you post your picks last year somewheres?

No I did not, not for College Football.

[SportsPicks3434]

I will be posting my BCS champion and all my selections for each Conference today.

[SportsPicks3434]

Here are my NCAAF Futures for the 2010-2011 Season

BCS National Champion: Boise State

ACC: Va Tech

Big Ten: Ohio State

Big East: W. Virginia

C-USA: Tulsa

MAC: Temple

MWC: TCU

Pac-10: USC

SEC: South Carolina

Sun Belt: Middle Tennessee State

WAC: Boise State

[jcubs55]

Best of luck this season. I can't tell you how many times I've seen posters come in claiming they have systems that hit at ridiculously high rates and then tank once they start posting. I hope that is not the case here. One team I am curious about is the Iowa Hawkeyes, any feedback is appreciated. Thanks.

[SportsPicks3434]

Best of luck this season. I can't tell you how many times I've seen posters come in claiming they have systems that hit at ridiculously high rates and then tank once they start posting. I hope that is not the case here. One team I am curious about is the Iowa Hawkeyes, any feedback is appreciated. Thanks.

I understand completely. BUT I would not waste my time with false information and I have played these exact plays for 2 seasons and I backtested these plays for the previous 8 seasons with a database and the numbers posted are true and 100 percent accurate as you will see this season. This is my best wagering and capping sport. As I previously mentioned in a previous post yesterday I am not talking about a million plays a year. These plays will produce about 30 SU and ML plays combined. I will post regarding Iowa in a few.

[Samuraifan]

I will be following closely on this one, I know a little bit about NFL (first season last year) but not much about NCAAF. You seem like the man to follow on this one.

[daneault23]

Thanks for your questions. First this thread will focus and will have a HEAVY lean towards the plays that are defined in post #1. I will post my units and types of plays before the season starts, sometime at the end of August but since you asked I will also post it now. Below I will explain my plays and units and how I will categorize them:

1. My first set of plays will be 1 (one) unit each and they will consist of plays that I cap and have strong angles attatched to them which make them a play. I must cap them as a play and they must certain other criteria. These are strong plays but since they are not the focus of the plays posted in post #1 they will be played for 1 (one) unit.

2. My second set of plays will be 2.5 units each and they will be the exact plays defined in post #1 but they will be money line plays. These plays have had a 70%-80% win rate straight up...keep in mind that record is backtested over the past 8 years and they will be all UNDERDOG Money line plays.

3. My third set of plays are my biggest plays and they will be 5 units each. These plays are the plays defined in post #1 and they are pointspread plays meaning using the spread. These plays are also the same side as the plays in section #2 above.


The highlighted plays above are the focus of this thread and are my biggest plays in this thread. If you play any of my plays I would definately play the plays that are highlighted above. hope that answeres your question.

I do not play parlays in NCAAF or the NFL. All my plays are played with the units above. Each unit for me is $100.00.

BOL to you and I look foward to your comments this season.

Did I read that right?? 70-80% on UNDERDOG MONEYLINE PLAYS?? Hmm.. I don't doubt you, it's just that that seems a little hard to believe I guess I'll just have to bookmark this thread and check it during the season.

[SportsPicks3434]

I will be following closely on this one, I know a little bit about NFL (first season last year) but not much about NCAAF. You seem like the man to follow on this one.

[SportsPicks3434]

Thanks for your questions. First this thread will focus and will have a HEAVY lean towards the plays that are defined in post #1. I will post my units and types of plays before the season starts, sometime at the end of August but since you asked I will also post it now. Below I will explain my plays and units and how I will categorize them:

1. My first set of plays will be 1 (one) unit each and they will consist of plays that I cap and have strong angles attatched to them which make them a play. I must cap them as a play and they must certain other criteria. These are strong plays but since they are not the focus of the plays posted in post #1 they will be played for 1 (one) unit.

2. My second set of plays will be 2.5 units each and they will be the exact plays defined in post #1 but they will be money line plays. These plays have had a 70%-80% win rate straight up...keep in mind that record is backtested over the past 8 years and they will be all UNDERDOG Money line plays.

3. My third set of plays are my biggest plays and they will be 5 units each. These plays are the plays defined in post #1 and they are pointspread plays meaning using the spread. These plays are also the same side as the plays in section #2 above.


The highlighted plays above are the focus of this thread and are my biggest plays in this thread. If you play any of my plays I would definately play the plays that are highlighted above. hope that answeres your question.

I do not play parlays in NCAAF or the NFL. All my plays are played with the units above. Each unit for me is $100.00.

BOL to you and I look foward to your comments this season.

Did I read that right?? 70-80% on UNDERDOG MONEYLINE PLAYS?? Hmm.. I don't doubt you, it's just that that seems a little hard to believe I guess I'll just have to bookmark this thread and check it during the season.

Yes you read that right. The ML plays are defined in #2 in the quoted post above and are the same plays as the point spread plays as defined in #3 in the quoted post above. Year to year things can change but the length of time this has been backtested is enough strength that this particular capping angle is spot on.

[SportsPicks3434]

Did I read that right?? 70-80% on UNDERDOG MONEYLINE PLAYS?? Hmm.. I don't doubt you, it's just that that seems a little hard to believe I guess I'll just have to bookmark this thread and check it during the season.

The record I posted in post #1 has also been verified by a recently aquired friend of mine using his database and his statistical data if that makes anyone feel any better. It sure made me feel more confident about my research.

[limitation]

Correct me if I am wrong here, but it seems like you will be focusing mainly on the weakness of the line and bet on the good underdogs (and hopefully most of them will hit). Do you go on favorites most of the times or you focus on betting that has good values and underdogs? If it's not a big work, will you provide a few sentences of write up on explanation of why you pick that particular team? Do you ever like playing totals? Or just mainly on money lines and run lines?

My knowledge in NCCAF is very limited since I just started watching them a few months ago. I know all the good "public" favorite teams, but I don't know much about small conference teams. If you don't mind me asking, how long have you been watching / betting on NCCAF?

Thanks in advance for your work on the answers and once again looking forward to your thread in new season.

[SportsPicks3434]

Correct me if I am wrong here, but it seems like you will be focusing mainly on the weakness of the line and bet on the good underdogs (and hopefully most of them will hit). Do you go on favorites most of the times or you focus on betting that has good values and underdogs? If it's not a big work, will you provide a few sentences of write up on explanation of why you pick that particular team? Do you ever like playing totals? Or just mainly on money lines and run lines?

My knowledge in NCCAF is very limited since I just started watching them a few months ago. I know all the good "public" favorite teams, but I don't know much about small conference teams. If you don't mind me asking, how long have you been watching / betting on NCCAF?

Thanks in advance for your work on the answers and once again looking forward to your thread in new season.

Wagering on NCAAF for about 15 seasons. Wagering on the plays defined in this thread 2 seasons. And as I mentioned this particular wagering angle has been back-tested for the past 8 seasons, from 2002-2009.

Regarding the plays...ALL of the plays will be underdogs. Most BUT not all of the plays will be +7 or less. There have been a few situations the past 2 seasons I have wagered solely on this capping angle with a line higher than +7 and under those situations the plays have not lost (past 2 seasons).

The line plays a role BUT a small role and I obviously do consider the line with each play because each play will be an underdog.

I do NOT play NCAAF totals at all.

With your last sentence I wasnt sure if you were talking about bases because there are no run lines in NCAAF. If you were speaking of MLB I will play Money Line Underdogs 99% of the time. There was a comment just made in my MLB forum thread and below I will attatch my response to that post so you can see why most if not all of my plays are Money Line Underdogs in MLB and Money line Underdogs in NCAAF.

________________________________________ __________


"Don't like the big chalk with the favorites and do not like RL wagers. Also as you can see my record is 9-5 with Money Line plays and if all 13 of those were favorites I would probably be even in units. Instead of being even I am + over 5 units while only being 4 games over .500

I can have as low as a 43% win percentage and still finish with More + units than most.


If I held a 60% win percentage for 300 games with the average underdog at +125 I would have the record below:

180-120, +105 units

If I held a 60% win percentage for 300 games with the average favorite at -125 I would have the record below:

180-120, +30 units

The numbers speak for themselves showing -75 units playing the favorites rather than the underdogs. This isnt my first rodeo....BOL bud!"



BOL and I hope that answers your questions. Feel free to ask anything you want or comments whenever. I appreciate it and I hope I can assist you in a profitable NCAAF season.

[SportsPicks3434]

A few people have asked me if I am interested in texting or emailing these plays along with posting them in this thread. I do not text but if you would like these plays emailed PM me your email address and I would be glad to do that. Do not post your email address in this thread....as I said PM it to me. If you want to follow the plays in this thread bookmark this thread for easier access. BOL

[pinnacle212]

I will be following closely on this one, I know a little bit about NFL (first season last year) but not much about NCAAF. You seem like the man to follow on this one.

Correct me if I am wrong here, but it seems like you will be focusing mainly on the weakness of the line and bet on the good underdogs (and hopefully most of them will hit). Do you go on favorites most of the times or you focus on betting that has good values and underdogs? If it's not a big work, will you provide a few sentences of write up on explanation of why you pick that particular team? Do you ever like playing totals? Or just mainly on money lines and run lines? My knowledge in NCCAF is very limited since I just started watching them a few months ago. I know all the good "public" favorite teams, but I don't know much about small conference teams. If you don't mind me asking, how long have you been watching / betting on NCCAF? Thanks in advance for your work on the answers and once again looking forward to your thread in new season.

Hey guys. I would wait a little bit before I followed old sports3434. If he is as good as he say he is we all stand to make some change. If he stinks like a wet turd. We all stand to make some change.

Sportspick if you suck will you promise to stay around so we can fade you. I dont minde people fading me when i stink up the place.

I dont think you are going to hit 80%. I just dont. But if you hit 65% I will let you kick my dog