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West Virginia at Syracuse with John Ryan
This is this week's Friday Night Football Thread. i have already written an article focusing on the initial betting flows and factors for this game. I am a bit surprised that this line has not moved to 15 ro even 16 points. I do think the big bettor is squarely on the Orange with the points. Will be back soon with more research, but in meantime review my 'Openers' article and provide your insight for this game. Thanks
im with u on this one john
I will be completing my play for the total on this game and how I see to bet it.
The Line Opening
The line opened seeing the Mountaineers favored by a solid 14 points. Although, just Tuesday, I am surprised that this line has not moved to 15 points and at some books the line has dropped a half point to 13 ½. I expect the total to be listed in the upper 50’s given the power of the West Virginia offense and their need to not just win, but win big.
The Consensus
The betting flows has seen the small better supporting West Virginia at -14 points. As of late Tuesday the small bettor is supporting is supporting West Virginia, but the sharp money is coming in on Syracuse. I can tell this simply by the fact that 65% of all best made are on West Virginia at the sources I monitor and the line has not gone up. This implies that the large better is evening the money flows being bet and is why the line has moved just 1/2 point lower.
Offense Heavily Favor West Virginia
West Virginia is led by Junior quarterback Geno Smith, who has completed 165 passes of 258 pass attempts for a 64% completion rate, 16 touchdowns and just three interceptions. All combined he has posted a strong 152.4 passer rating through six games. He is averaging 8.37 yards per pass and most of those passes are targeting Sophomore wide receiver Stedman Bailey and wide receiver Tavon Austin.
As you can see on the front page of the College Football link and the SBR front page I am squarely on the 'UNDER' for this game. Here is a system that has produced a 49-18 ATS record for 73% winners since 2000. Play 'under' with all teams where the total is between 56.5 and 63 after scoring and allowing 30 points or more last game facing an opponent after scoring 37 points or more last game.
33 of these plays or 49.3% have gone 'under' the posted total by seven or more points.
west virginia all the way in this one
they have beaten syracuse by a combined score of 89 - 27 last 2 matchups @ SU
this is also a terrible matchup for syracuse defensively...their secondary has been shredded so far this year and they face the most potent offense they've faced all year
Ryan i m thinking about betting over for this game.....
I just don't see how Syracuse will be able to contain the Gemo Smith offense. West Virginia will come out and use a foundation base of offensive plays that are simple to read and even more simple for Smith to execute. I strongly believe that you will see a balance of run-pass in the first 15 plays of the game and a few of those plays will be deep vertical routes. Those routes will stretch Syracuse defensively and open up even wider running lanes.
Syracuse has been lucky this year to win most of their games. They've all been close and most against middle of the pack teams. WVU will bring in the best offense they've seen combined with a solid defense. Syracuse also not too good at home in the Big East. Syracuse won't score more than 20 points in this game and I see WVU with about 38. I'm on WVU -14.
west virginia ROLLS syracuse....nuff said
With DE Chandler Jones making his return from injury this is a huge plus for SU. This will put alot of of pressure on Geno and Syr. makes a game of it. Su +14 a Gift!!!!
again, WVU rolls the cuse...like they always do in the dome
well put..Originally Posted by miketp223
I agree with his return being a plus for the Syracuse defense. However, one man cannot do it alone ever in team sports. West Virginia will minimize his pressure by spreading the field and forcing him to play 'containment' more time than just using an outright 'bull rush'. The speed an quickness of the offensive skill players I have mentioned in the articles will be very evident on the field tonight. The 'Cuse cannot get caught in man coverage, especially on the perimeter.
WVU vs Syracuse: WVU -13.5****, OV (anything in the mid 50’s ****)
WVU (40.8 / 21.5) 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 5-1 O/U
Syr (26.7 / 27.3) 4-2 AU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U
So we all know about WVU and Geno Smith, with Holgerson calling the shots the offense is running on all cylinders. I had my doubts after a sub-par performance vs Marshall, followed up by what will be their worst first half of the year against Norfolk State, and then what should have been a blowout of Maryland turned into a 6pt game, so I was more than confident taking LSU – the points. Despite WVU getting pasted 47-21 they looked like a good team and gained a lot of bandwagon support after that game. Since then they have not disappointed winning their last 2 games 55-10 (bowling green) and 43-16 (Uconn).
Syracuse hasn’t been terrible, losing only 2 games but has not been convincing at all. They snuck by Wake in OT in a memorable late game comeback, got by RI by a TD, USC beat em by 3TDs, they beat Toledo on a blown FG call, lost to Rutgers, and in their most recent game snuck by lowly Tulane by 3.
Obviously with Cuse struggling to beat bad teams it seems like WVU should handle them, end of story. But let’s add in some supporting info just to reinforce the fact. WVU is 4th in the FBS is passing yards averaging a nice 380yrds/game, the Syracuse pass-D however is ranked 111 allowing 293yrds/game (only holding Rutgers-297 and RI-154 to less than 300). Expect Geno Smith to have a field day. This should open up an improving run game with Garrison. Can Syracuse keep pace? Well probably not through the air, with their 71st ranked passing game matched up against the 14th ranked pass D of the mountaineers. Syracuse also doesn’t have a great rushing attack averaging only 113yrds on the ground so expect this to be a tough day sledding for this offense. Note: besides the LSU pasting, and Maryland coming back to have a solid 21pt second half, no other team has scored 20 on WVU or stayed within 21pts. I will be taking WVU here (-13.5) for 4 stars. I may take the over as well, especially if it’s in the mid-50’s.
*****I ended up taking the over 58 and posted:
LOL one more thing in regards to the WVU over
12 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 92'
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
@ Syracuse, 6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
This is an against the grain pick and if it makes you uncomfortable don't ride the train but I like it and its locked and loaded.
Note* with Holgerson WVU is a different beast. They only scored a total of 59 once last year(10)... and have gone under 59 only once this year.
in 09 they also only went over 59* 1 time..... DIFFERENT BEAST... they will go over
GOOD LUCK MY FRIEND
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Mountaineer Defensive Unit
I think you will see them use a base cover-2 scheme, but will change up the looks using free man coverage schemes. In the free man coverage scheme the free safety is the only defensive player not assigned to a specific receiver. This is a very effective scheme to use and change the pace of the game when playing a struggling offensive unit like Syracuse.
In the free man the linebackers, who are responsible for either the weak or strong side receivers and bracket them for maximum quarterback confusion. Before the snap, the look will be underneath zone coverage with man on the perimeter given the free safety is playing a deep center field position. After the snap, the linebackers go to man coverage with each of them having responsibility for the ‘in’ and ‘out’ routes. Once the receiver reveals his route the linebackers and defensive backs go to man scheme.
This type of defense is simple to execute, but one that will be highly effective at stopping the Syracuse offense. Moreover, it allows Syracuse to use four or five men to rush the quarterback and can attack the ‘A’ gap to stop any attempt by Syracuse to establish a between the tackles running game.
Great analysis. i appreciate it and think your thought process is solid. However, I am on West Virginia and the 'under' and I just don't see how Syarcuse will be able to get close to 20 points in this game. WVU 38-13.WVU vs Syracuse: WVU -13.5****, OV (anything in the mid 50’s ****)
WVU (40.8 / 21.5) 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, 5-1 O/U
Syr (26.7 / 27.3) 4-2 AU, 2-4 ATS, 4-2 O/U
So we all know about WVU and Geno Smith, with Holgerson calling the shots the offense is running on all cylinders. I had my doubts after a sub-par performance vs Marshall, followed up by what will be their worst first half of the year against Norfolk State, and then what should have been a blowout of Maryland turned into a 6pt game, so I was more than confident taking LSU – the points. Despite WVU getting pasted 47-21 they looked like a good team and gained a lot of bandwagon support after that game. Since then they have not disappointed winning their last 2 games 55-10 (bowling green) and 43-16 (Uconn).
Syracuse hasn’t been terrible, losing only 2 games but has not been convincing at all. They snuck by Wake in OT in a memorable late game comeback, got by RI by a TD, USC beat em by 3TDs, they beat Toledo on a blown FG call, lost to Rutgers, and in their most recent game snuck by lowly Tulane by 3.
Obviously with Cuse struggling to beat bad teams it seems like WVU should handle them, end of story. But let’s add in some supporting info just to reinforce the fact. WVU is 4th in the FBS is passing yards averaging a nice 380yrds/game, the Syracuse pass-D however is ranked 111 allowing 293yrds/game (only holding Rutgers-297 and RI-154 to less than 300). Expect Geno Smith to have a field day. This should open up an improving run game with Garrison. Can Syracuse keep pace? Well probably not through the air, with their 71st ranked passing game matched up against the 14th ranked pass D of the mountaineers. Syracuse also doesn’t have a great rushing attack averaging only 113yrds on the ground so expect this to be a tough day sledding for this offense. Note: besides the LSU pasting, and Maryland coming back to have a solid 21pt second half, no other team has scored 20 on WVU or stayed within 21pts. I will be taking WVU here (-13.5) for 4 stars. I may take the over as well, especially if it’s in the mid-50’s.
*****I ended up taking the over 58 and posted:
LOL one more thing in regards to the WVU over
12 of 16 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 92'
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons
@ Syracuse, 6 of 8 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL since 1992
This is an against the grain pick and if it makes you uncomfortable don't ride the train but I like it and its locked and loaded.
Note* with Holgerson WVU is a different beast. They only scored a total of 59 once last year(10)... and have gone under 59 only once this year.
in 09 they also only went over 59* 1 time..... DIFFERENT BEAST... they will go over
GOOD LUCK MY FRIEND
Yeah history does favor the under, and if they get held in the 30's I'm doomed. Just hoping WVU will go big (mid 40's+) against this D, who gave up 38 to USC, 34 to Tulane, and 30 to Toledo. I mean its Tulane... lol
trying to decide between WVU TT over 36' and WVU -14. don't trust Cuse offense enough to play the over, as they could stall between 10-14 points. my only concern is that WVU won't need to score more than 35 and will warm up the bus with a 35-14 win. decisions, decisions.
besides the LSU loss they have only scored under 37 one time.... in the 34pt performance against Marshall (through 3 quarters)... TT does seem like a lock.. surprised I didn't look into it, Cuse has let far inferior offenses into the 30's... WVU will make it to 40+, 90% chance
Last edited by spladle08; 10-21-11 at 09:27 AM.
thanks, spladle! yeah, i'm booking this now, gotta get some work done and spent way too much time trying to decide between these plays. BOL to you this weekend, pal.besides the LSU lost they have only scored under 37 one time.... in the 34pt performance against Marshall (through 3 quarters)... TT does seem like a lock.. surprised I didn't look into it, Cuse has let far inferior offenses into the 30's... WVU will make it to 40+, 90% chance
i kinda agree with biffs analysis on this one. this is also a revenge game from last season when wvu lost at home to the cuse. i wouldnt lay more then 14 here tho. i do think this has a decent shot of going under, probably about a 15-20 point wvu win and a game in the low to mid 50s. 35-17 sounds good to me.
To clarify my plays are 5* West Virginia, 5* 'UNDER, and no more than a 3* teaser WVU and the 'under'. I have my 'final thoughts' article on the fornt page of the site. Review it and I am certain you will share in my confidence for this game tonight.
5* WVU, 5* 'UNDER' 59 points and then no more than a 3* Teaser play WVU and 'UNDER'
Thanks for the insight on this play.
how much are your units JR... just curious because you're a professional. Im assuming something big like 1k or something? I dream to be at that level one day, but for now, I can only do 100 per unit (even though I bet 2u about every game)... should probably just change my units to $200 a piece... just to make me feel like Im gaining steam.
Rule never one: never wish you had more money to make greater plays. laugh. I always remember that great quote: Having something and losing it is far worse than ever having it. Seriously, it does not matter the number or amount per * play. It is all about making units of profits over the course of time and win% is grossly over evaluated. I rarely adjust the amount per unit. Never more frequently than once per year. Over the course of a year you have run through enough streaks - both winning and losing - to offset any aberrations.how much are your units JR... just curious because you're a professional. Im assuming something big like 1k or something? I dream to be at that level one day, but for now, I can only do 100 per unit (even though I bet 2u about every game)... should probably just change my units to $200 a piece... just to make me feel like Im gaining steam.
Most amateurs though go through a winning streak and then automatically believe those streaks and patterns will continue till their 80 years old. By extending your wager during a meaningful winning streak only increases the probability of reducing or even eliminating your total gain. Must keep your internal 'fear/greed' equilibrium in check always.
Great thread guys!
Very insightful and I'll jump on the West Virginia train with you!
Great insight here!
Yeah, my financial ambition far exceeds my talent, and that's why I'll never be to your level... but a guy can dream.
seriously, don't dream just do it. Go for the best and do it in a disciplined well thought out manner. When I started out, if I had thought similar to what you are saying I would not be where I am today. Not a put down on your end, just saying that never cut yourself short in any goals you have. ok? Not trying sound like Dr. Phil laugh.Yeah, my financial ambition far exceeds my talent, and that's why I'll never be to your level... but a guy can dream.
I will be back at half-time for possible second bets and also to answer any questions about the Saturday card.
hey john, whats your record in college football?
John
Nice posting, I'm all over WV but like the under no way Syc puts up 21pts! I see a 40-14 gm it will be close to the total but just short.
I'm on it john... thanks for the pep talk
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blackeyeshamus gave spladle08 1 SBR Point(s) for this post.
