Originally Posted by
Love The Action
MLB 2012 Regular Season 4/22/2012
Play #1
Nationals ML (+106) 1x (Locked) POSTPONED -- NO PLAY
Play #2
Cardinals/Pirates under (7)(+105) 1x (Locked)
Not much needs to be said here, with Lohse pitching very well right now against an non-existant Pirates offense and Bedard going against a great Cards offense, but one that has not faced their lineup except for Beltran and Holliday. I like Bedard this year and I like both bullpens. We are getting a great price for a game I have set at 5.95 and with a solid under ump. I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #3
Dodgers/Astros under (7)(+100) 1x (Locked)
Wandy has great home/away splits throughout his career and I expect a solid game out of him today with at least a quality start. On the other side, I expect Billingsley to continue improving what could shape up to be a career year for him. We have another under leaning ump here and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.
Play #4
Rangers/Tigers over (9.5)(-105) 1x (Locked)
I think the over money starts to pour in the closer we get to game time so I am jumping on this now as I don't see the price getting any better. Despite the unfamiliarity factor working for Smyly, he is still a 23 year old youngster without overpowering stuff going against the best offense in baseball coming off a game against Verlander. Smyly's stuff might as well be batting practice compared to Verlander. On the other side, Lewis has really improved and has started the season great, but Detroit's offense is no slouch and they are very familiar with Lewis having knocked him around in the past over several outtings. I almost never play 9.5 overs because you lose on a key number of 9, but I am going to take a shot here with the wind blowing out to right at 13mph (although not very significant at Tigers Stadium) and Tim Welke behind the plate. Despite a rather good strike rate, the guy seems to be an under machine year after year and I think he is one of Dex's auto-umps for the over if I am not mistaken. I have this game at 10.3, so not a ton of value here or the full run I usually like, however, we do win on a final score of 10 and I think we hit that number today. I am rolling with the over for 1x. Good luck.
Play #5
Yankees/Red Sox under (9)(+100) 1x (Locked)
This game may end up getting postponed like some other East Coast games, but if not I really like the under here. Generally, I stay away from unders when rain is in forecast, but we have CC going tonight who generally pitches the Red Sox lineup tough and he has a rubber arm with the ability to come back from rain delays and pitch well. On the other side, Bard may be the best Red Sox pitcher at the moment and he really does have nasty stuff. I think he pitches well tonight. Obviously the Boston bullpen is a concern, but after such a disastrous effort yesterday, the whole world thinks this one is going to go over. Instead, I like the ESPN Sunday night under trend in this game. This will be an intense game with the whole world watching and when you have two solid pitchers, these types of games tend to stay under. If you look at the advanced numbers for these pitchers, both are very impressive and my model loves Bard even though he has been a reliever. The guy has a lifetime SIERA under 2.99 and he has the rare ability to throw strikeouts with a K% always over 21% and get ground balls with a GB/FB generally over 1.5. The wind is blowing directly in from center at about 15mph predicted by gametime and the ump is a bit of an enigma in Tschida. I suppose you could say he is more of an over ump, but he has had some big under seasons. I will take my chance with CC and Bard on the mound today having this game set at 8 even and I am rolling with the under for 1x. Good luck.