Friday's MLB Player Props & Expert Picks: Skubal to Add to Cy Young Resume
It's an exciting, full day of baseball action on Friday, so let's dive in with our top MLB player props and expert picks based on the best MLB odds.
The weekend is almost here, but don't wish for Friday to just come and go, as we have plenty of great MLB action to look forward to today.
There are a few intriguing divisional matchups following that, as AL East rivals battle at 7:07 p.m. ET when the Tampa Bay Rays visit Rogers Centre to take on the Toronto Blue Jays. Then, only a few minutes later, we'll get first pitch from Progressive Field as then AL Central-leading Cleveland Guardians host the Minnesota Twins.
We cap the night off with a trio of West Coast games, and we're focusing on the showdown in the desert for our first player prop. MLB Cy Young odds favorite Tarik Skubal and the Detroit Tigers visit the Arizona Diamondbacks, with the left-hander looking to add to his impressive 2024 campaign.
Here are our MLB player props and expert picks for Friday (MLB picks based on odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Friday’s MLB expert picks
- Tarik Skubal 7+ strikeouts (+130 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Nestor Cortes Under 6.5 strikeouts (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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MLB player props
Tarik Skubal 7+ strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Over 5.5 (-170) | Over 6.5 (+114) | Over 5.5 (-189) | Over 5.5 (-175) | Over 5.5 (-160) |
Game info: Tigers vs. Diamondbacks | Moneyline: Tigers (-140 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-125)/Under 7.5 (+105) via Betway | Start time: 9:40 p.m. ET
Detroit Tigers southpaw Tarik Skubal has been absolutely electric to start the season. He's tied for second in pitching fWAR, and he's the favorite to win the AL Cy Young Award not only by the odds at our best sports betting sites but also by FanGraphs' Cy Young projection model.
Skubal is striking out 11.02 batters per nine innings this season, and he's reached this mark in four of his eight starts this season, managing six strikeouts in three others.
Working against Skubal is the fact that the Arizona Diamondbacks don't strike out very often. However, they were the best team in the league in that regard for much of April but now own the fifth-lowest strikeout rate, so they've taken the walk of shame back to the dugout more frequently during May.
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For his part, Skubal is projected for 7.05 strikeouts on Friday. That's not a huge buffer from the seven he needs for this bet to cash, but these +130 odds at bet365 are providing us with great value.
As you can see, most of our best sports betting apps have Skubal's strikeout total listed at 5.5, with the best price also at bet365. However, taking the Over on his alt total is the higher EV play.
Pinnacle, which features one of the most respected trading teams in the sports betting industry, is also at 5.5 and the Over has moved to -186 after opening at -172.
Best odds: +130 via bet365
Nestor Cortes Under 6.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Odds | Under 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-130) | Under 6.5 (-110) | Under 6.5 (-115) | Under 6.5 (-130) |
Game info: White Sox vs. Yankees | Moneyline: Yankees (-275 via Betway) | Total: Over 7.5 (-110)/Under 7.5 (-110) via Betway | Start time: 7:05 p.m. ET
New York Yankees left-hander Nestor Cortes has been better this season than his 4.02 ERA suggests, as he owns a 2.80 expected ERA and a 3.58 FIP. However, he's not striking out a ton of batters, managing only 8.55 K/9, which is down from his career mark of 9.34.
On Friday, Cortes squares off against the Chicago White Sox, who, for as bad as they are, don't strike out a ton. The White Sox rank right around the middle of the league in terms of strikeout rate at 22.3% (it's their inability to take walks or simply hit the ball that's the problem).
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Cortes is projected to record 6.01 strikeouts against Chicago, which is nearly a full K below the number he'd need to go Over this total. Based on that projection, we're getting roughly 15.5% +EV on this bet.
Pinnacle opened with the Under priced at -117, but it's been smashed to -140. As you can see, you can get the same odds at both DraftKings and BetMGM, with Caesars also offering a competitive price (though that -115 would make this only a three-star pick).
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM
MLB player props made Friday at 8:30 a.m. ET.
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- BetRivers Promo Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetRivers Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
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Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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