EP36's Tennis Elbow

**Boxing Champ** · 05-28-12, 10:13 PM

Good Luck ..EP!!!

**tevari** · 05-28-12, 10:25 PM

My man. Come back so we can put our heads together. As always, feel free to pop in my thread and destroy my plays. Cheers, pal.

**yisman** · 05-28-12, 10:25 PM

Tue 5/29		S. Bolelli		+11 +118	+6000	Over 25 -102
07:00 AM		R. Nadal		-11 -133	-18000	Under 25 -110

Interesting, because Bolelli +11 is basically the same as over 25.

The only thing that could change it would be if Bolleli forced a 7-5/7-6 set, but that would basically be a lock for the cover anyway.

I don't see Nadal covering if Bolelli gets 5+ games in a set, so to me it's the same bet. Nice + money on the +11.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-28-12, 11:42 PM

French Open, Tuesday March 29th

WTA: Hercog -125
WTA: Rus-Hampton Under 21 [-105]
ATP: Baghdatis -140
ATP: Zverev +158

**EdwardHaney** · 05-29-12, 01:32 AM

I'd like to pick your brain on Benneteau's current status. Do you know anything about where he is? I'm thinking about making a max play on Zverev. I think making this play at a book that grades results as long as 1 set is completed is the way to go but I really can't find much info about how Benneteau's injury recovery is going. His injury last month was ugly. I understand Zverev brings nothing to the table but can Benneteau actually win a tennis match right now? I didn't think Benneteau should even be playing yet. Even if he isn't hurting he may be out of form. His age may factor into this as well. This line is just jumping out at me as a great opportunity to make some money. Any reasons why we should hold back at all here? The match will be after Kvitova and Sharapova play their matches on Lenglen. Is the support from the crowd going to help him fight through this enough to not make this play? I'm leaning toward putting in $500 in order to pick up a quick $775. Dumb?

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-12, 05:54 AM

Same thinking on Benneteau. If the guy proves to be a miraculous healer and comes out and buries Zverev, so be it. I'd keep it as a normal play though. This is tennis where the weird happens all the time. Also played mine where 1 set is action.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-12, 06:48 AM

Apparently Benneteau is the Six Million Dollar Man. We can rebuild him, make him better. Nahnahanhanahanahanah.

Maybe he'll wear down. That's the hope.

**shari91** · 05-29-12, 07:08 AM

I'm on Zverev too. WTF is going on with Benny???? Didn't see the first set playing out like this, that's for sure. Let's hope the f'r breaks down soon like an old horse.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-12, 07:35 AM

Adding ...

ATP Andreev +145
His shoulder was an issue in early May, but he came back in Dusseldorf last week and made it through a match - losing to Mayer in straights. If the shoulder doesn't hinder him, Andreev is the better dirt baller over Nieminen.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-12, 07:57 AM

Well I don't know if it's good or bad, but the Rus-Hampton total gets cancelled due to retirement. Hampton retires. Was 6-4, 4-3 but still kinda iffy with Rus blowing a couple break leads already in the 2nd set. So I guess maybe I oughta be happy with my money back.

Definitely going more gut plays tomorrow. Had a couple dogs I passed on today that look like they might hit, but I didn't want to make too many plays ...

**shari91** · 05-29-12, 08:04 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Well I don't know if it's good or bad, but the Rus-Hampton total gets cancelled due to retirement. Hampton retires. Was 6-4, 4-3 but still kinda iffy with Rus blowing a couple break leads already in the 2nd set. So I guess maybe I oughta be happy with my money back.

Definitely going more gut plays tomorrow. Had a couple dogs I passed on today that look like they might hit, but I didn't want to make too many plays ...

Yeah I got lucky... I had Hampton straight up at Sportingbet which cancels too.

Every time after the first round of a Slam ends, I look at my TI bets and contest picks and kick myself for not just betting all of the dogs I liked. I went with a few more this week but if I'd just played every bloody one, I would've been up quite a bit even after figuring in the losses. Not sure why I chicken out. The one I'm still pissed about is Goffin because I switched him in the contest at the last minute for Step and laid off backing him even though I took him at TI. We have to stop 2nd guessing ourselves, even if we drop our bet sizes to get them all in.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-12, 08:24 AM

Yeah like today I had Paire ML set to go & Urz.Radwanska. Ramos had burned me a few times of late as a larger favorite, so I thought going against him was a decent idea - did not expect him to be getting his ass handed to him though.

I think the worm has turned with Zverev and Benneteau perhaps ...

**shari91** · 05-29-12, 08:41 AM

I'm on Paire over 3.5 and that's looking to be a dud. And I'm pretty sure I took both Ramos and Parm on TI the other night but I saw someone make comments today about Paire and Radwanksa that signalled to me I was definitely on the wrong side of both. Those were really good leans on your part... they were both cases of several factors getting them the win and it would only be if you'd be paying attention to them that you'd believe they could do it. Sucks you didn't make any money on those.

**MrGambler** · 05-29-12, 08:47 AM

I disagree. I think Nieminen will take it....right now he is playing better....

**shari91** · 05-29-12, 09:24 AM

Between Ramos winning that tb to get me the over 3.5 and the Hampton bet being cancelled, I think I've just used all of my luck for the next few days

Now back to hoping that Benny tires out. Too many ups and downs in this crap

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-12, 10:17 AM

Well I should have known better ... Zverev was a sure fire TI jinx pick. Everyone was on the dog there, so hopefully it evens out with Baghdatis winning over Chela as they are all on Chela as well. Two retirements are my "winners" so far.

**Hangoverblack** · 05-29-12, 12:53 PM

Very nice win for Baggy. Good call thanks for the play!

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-12, 06:26 PM

French Open - Wednesday, May 30th

ATP: Fognini -112
ATP: Zeballos +130
ATP: Klizan-Mahut Over 36.5 [-135]
WTA: Chan +6 [-125]

Likely to add one more, deciding between a parlay and another dog play. Quick summation for those who need two shits to fade or follow. Fognini against Troicki. Price tells a bunch still to me. Fognini has not been in great form in recent tourneys, but has made a habit of showing up in Slams and this is his best surface. Troicki has some decent form gained in the past week from beating some slap dicks in Dusseldorf, but is still not great on clay. May wait to see if some people will buy Troicki into a firmer favorite and give Fognini better odds. Zeballos & Anderson should be a big serving match. Zeballos has been pretty solid on the Challenger circuit and Anderson still isn't great on clay. He's also coming in off the marathon vs. Machado. If Zeballos can pick on him early, he could ease away in 4. Otherwise, I think this will be a big battle and maybe go 4-5 tighter sets. Klizan is this year's Challenger King on clay, so seeing him translate it to ATP level success is interesting to watch. Mahut is no great dirt baller, but that big serve of his should keep him in sets and I think with Klizan's inexperience at Slams - Mahut can snag a set at the least and push the total over. Chan against Kuznetsova. Chan has been serviceable on this surface & Kuznetsova despite her easy win in Round 1 has been an untrusting koont in the past months. I think Chan can keep it tight, even if she drops this in straights and I won't be overly surprised if she really pushes Sveta to the limits.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-12, 10:49 PM

Adding ...

ATP Doubles: Brown-Marray +145
ATP: Ferrero +135

Quick Summation: Dustin Brown quietly has become a pretty good doubles partner. They face the team of Cabal-Farah who made a run to the Final @ RG last year, but have not been on that level this year. The price seems a little more based perhaps on the past than the present. Brown-Marray have teamed regularly this season and shown good promise. JCF may be on his last go-round or one of his last rides, but he's still a threat on clay. He gets Cilic who certainly can win on this surface, but what has Cilic done in his return on clay? The list of guys he beat is not exactly Murderer's Row. Isner. Montanes. Youzhny. Haas. Decent players. Ferrero has shown a little form recently and cruised in his opener. Cilic won in straights as well, but did not look as sharp. Just the gut saying go JCF. I think he either shows some moxy and wins a grinder or Cilic kills him.

**JNic** · 05-29-12, 11:02 PM

I really hope JCF can win mostly bc Delpo could be hurt and I'd like to see him make the 4th round before his time is up. He hasn;t made it past the 3rd round since he won in 2003!

Do you have any thoughts on Baker vs. Simon? It could all catch up to Baker but just looking at the game Simon was shit against Harrison imo and his second serve looked as weak as ever, if Baker can do his thing and attack the 2nd serve effectively I think he surely has a shot? Baker can clearly hold his own on the baseline, the only thing though is I feel like Simon will grind him out in front of the homecrowd, if there is one thing Simon is, hes a fighter. Im not sure if I could see Baker winning in a long match?

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-12, 11:14 PM

I skipped that one altogether. I think Simon wins. The one thing I consider a lot when looking at Simon vs. anyone is have they played him before? If the answer is no and they're not uber talented ... my thought process is that likely over the course of a match, Simon's game plan of allowing his opponents to error themselves out of a match will work more often than not. Baker is a great story, but he's got a ton of miles on him over the last couple of weeks and I think Simon will make this match long with the baseline rallies as usual. I actually think if Baker is going to have a shot, he needs to take it to Simon early and win it quick. Don't think he will, but he's not without a chance at the end of the day - but I would be surprised.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-29-12, 11:47 PM

Also going to add to the futures plot ...

Kerber +2400

**Spanks** · 05-30-12, 01:21 AM

gl today...

**shimeon40** · 05-30-12, 03:23 AM

Yes...eagle on zeballos..like that pick alot.

**colout** · 05-30-12, 03:58 AM

Good luck today EP

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-12, 06:48 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Adding ...
Just the gut saying go JCF. I think he either shows some moxy and wins a grinder or Cilic kills him.

Hey, I was right!

**shari91** · 05-30-12, 07:30 AM

I don't think this is going to be a very good day for me at all. I rushed and put all of my bets in and now I'm doubting myself big time.

I was on King and Zheng, wimped out and took Martinez Sanchez with the handicap after having the ML in my bet slip for ages (still might have been the right move though), have Glatch for a bit, Baker with the handicap, the del Po over, a parlay with Kubot and Klizan, Mattek-Sands, Zeballos, and Berdych and Troicki both over 3.5 sets. I don't feel great about any of those any more. And TI keeps freezing on me now so I can't even figure out what trainwrecks are waiting to happen.

I'm going to tail you on Chan so I can have one bet pending that I know someone has put some thought into

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-12, 07:35 AM

I did it again today Shari. Had Kukushkin as the first play I wrote down when I was looking @ lines before doing more "research" and what do I do? Keep him off my list and use someone like JCF instead. Fukkkkkkkkkkk.

**shari91** · 05-30-12, 07:46 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

I did it again today Shari. Had Kukushkin as the first play I wrote down when I was looking @ lines before doing more "research" and what do I do? Keep him off my list and use someone like JCF instead. Fukkkkkkkkkkk.

OMG - I was just coming in to post the same thing because I looked at the score! I really liked Kuku as well until I looked at TI. Didn't have any time to look at Oncourt today and I'm going to pay for it, I just know it. Tomorrow I'm going to look at matchups, write down who I like without looking at anything or knowing the odds. If the odds are playable on those people, I'm going to place those bets and be done with it. I jumped off the Canuck for Zheng because I listened to someone's analysis on TI about how the weather would highly favour Zheng. We're costing ourselves cash here.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-12, 07:51 AM

Yeah I was probably going to play the +5 instead of the ML, but hell the way that match is going - KuKu may just blow the handicap anyhow. Don't know what it is, but it's like clockwork with me and the beginning of Slams ... always slow to start. Always.

**shari91** · 05-30-12, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Yeah I was probably going to play the +5 instead of the ML, but hell the way that match is going - KuKu may just blow the handicap anyhow. Don't know what it is, but it's like clockwork with me and the beginning of Slams ... always slow to start. Always.

See and I'm always the opposite. I make all of my cash in the first couple of rounds and then struggle. That's why I usually lay off the later rounds once I've built a cushion and look to see what you're playing if I feel like action. I've been lucky so far because I've fluked enough dog winners to still make some good money but I've cost myself by wimping out. And I fukked myself this time because I'd watched a total of one full clay match this season up until the French so I've been putting too much faith in other peoples analysis, assuming that they've followed all the way through and have a clue. Screw that. I'm better off sticking with what I know about the players myself and going with my gut if all else fails. Sometimes I think TI hurts me more than helps.

**tevari** · 05-30-12, 08:02 AM

Atta girl, Shari. TI does have its uses, though.

**tevari** · 05-30-12, 08:02 AM

A bit upset that I fell asleep before I could take Devilder @ +odds.

**shari91** · 05-30-12, 08:08 AM

Originally posted by tevari

Atta girl, Shari. TI does have its uses, though.

It totally does but normally I don't really pay attention to what people post on there other than scanning for injury info. Or if I do, it's after I've already made my bets. But I came in so blind this week that I found myself giving weight to stuff that I usually wouldn't. I shouldn't be complaining at all because I've made out ok and at the end of the day it's my fault for not trusting what I wanted to play. Strangers online don't owe me decent analysis. But man it's so frustrating.

**EaglesPhan36** · 05-30-12, 08:14 AM

I'm glad I am not a member @ TI and can't read the comments because it would probably just screw me up to see all of the shit people post there. I mainly use it for the stats and do take a look at the # of people tipping on one side or another. Doesn't always work out, but when TI rides a dog - the dog often craps out ... although Devilder was the one today that I think was way lopsided in tips over there and he won easy.