EP36's Tennis Elbow

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-07-12, 07:28 PM

Quali parlay + Oprandi both home as winners. Waiting on Pennetta now for the other parlay.

**shari91** · 01-07-12, 07:52 PM

I think we both did well this week last year. I especially remember Sydney being really big. You're off to a good start!

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-07-12, 09:22 PM

Lost out on the parlay with Pennetta. She picked up some sort of injury in the 2nd set. Didn't see it, but in watching the scoreboard - very apparent that things swung hard the other way when this happened. She retired in the 3rd. Too bad. She was having a great tournament.

One more tonight.

WTA Sydney: Peng +145
Don't see as big a difference as the price shows betwen Cibulkova and Peng. Peng had a really solid year on this surface last year. It was a breakout type campaign for her. Not sure it progresses this year, but she's plenty consistent to outlast Cibulkova who is a typical WTA rollercoaster.

**shari91** · 01-07-12, 09:29 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Lost out on the parlay with Pennetta. She picked up some sort of injury in the 2nd set. Didn't see it, but in watching the scoreboard - very apparent that things swung hard the other way when this happened. She retired in the 3rd. Too bad. She was having a great tournament.

One more tonight.

WTA Sydney: Peng +135
Don't see as big a difference as the price shows betwen Cibulkova and Peng. Peng had a really solid year on this surface last year. It was a breakout type campaign for her. Not sure it progresses this year, but she's plenty consistent to outlast Cibulkova who is a typical WTA rollercoaster.

lol we must've been betting her close to the same time. I had put her in my slip and on TI this morning but forgot to bet until I was just scrolling through the remaining matches. Hopefully that wasn't a sign earlier for me to stay away. GL to us EP

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-07-12, 09:36 PM

Hell naw. I fell sympatico with you this year. Also looking at Murray-Dolgpolov. I can't avoid every fukkin Dolgo match all year even though I should ....

**shari91** · 01-07-12, 09:41 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Hell naw. I fell sympatico with you this year. Also looking at Murray-Dolgpolov. I can't avoid every fukkin Dolgo match all year even though I should ....

I was just saying to Optional in that other thread I don't even know what to think of Dolgo. I thought Baggy stood a chance against Murray - wrong. Knew Tomic wouldn't - right. But now the books give Dolgo less of a chance than Tomic??? Come on now. But Dolgo, even though I love the Ukes, you know how much he's messed me up. When he wins it goes to 3 and then I think of him against Murray last year in Melbourne and that's sticking in my head. Ugh I don't know. I think Optional's on the right track with the over but I can see Murray hammering him too. I need to look at actual numbers or just bloody stay away

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-07-12, 10:12 PM

Yeah their AO match showed all of that. Two sets where Murray smoked Dolgo and then two sets that were very close with Dolgo winning one. If Murray serves like he has the last two rounds, Dolgo probably drops it in two ... but we know that isn't always the case. Maybe it is just me, but I'm beginning to see Dolgo as kind of a Junior Murray of sorts. Lots of different slice shots and on certain days, his forehand and serve are untouchable. Not quite as good defensively ... but there's some similarities I think. Or maybe I'm drunk.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-07-12, 10:40 PM

ATP Brisbane: Murray-Dolgopolov Over 20.5 [-110]
I think this all comes down to Dolgopolov's serve. If he can serve solidly and not give Murray too many looks at this 2nd serve, he should be able to make this a tight match where even two sets will see this given a chance. Also just a feeling that Murray isn't going to serve balls out three matches in a row and will give Dolgo some looks at break chances. I would suggest grabbing an adult beverage still.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-07-12, 11:29 PM

Dude cannot get his 1st serve in. Break is coming sooner or later. Too many looks at his 2nd serve for Murray not to convert.

Not to mention he hasn't won a single point off Murray's serve. This might be over within an hour.

**Optional** · 01-07-12, 11:32 PM

Looking like he might retire and save us EP

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-07-12, 11:33 PM

I'd love that. He's going to lose in like 19 games otherwise.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-07-12, 11:37 PM

Okay. This will be #2 this season. So the rule should be easy dummy, never ever bet on a Dolgopolov match. Don't care what it looks like. Fukk it. Fukk him. Fukk betting on him.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-07-12, 11:47 PM

I hope this mother fucker gets bageled. Seriously. I don't care if he wins every other match this year. I WILL NOT BET ON ANYTHING RELATED TO THIS ASSHOLE FOR 2012. End scene.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 02:13 AM

ATP Chennai: Raonic +120
This is about as even as it gets. Serve on serve. Power on power. For me, if this comes down to tie breaks - Raonic is the better breaker player right now. Tipsy is just a shade above .500 in tie breaks for his career. Raonic is upwards of 64%. If Raonic has the torpedo serve loaded, will be tough to see anything but tie breaks determining this one.

**H1Cypher** · 01-08-12, 03:16 AM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

ATP Chennai: Raonic +120
This is about as even as it gets. Serve on serve. Power on power. For me, if this comes down to tie breaks - Raonic is the better breaker player right now. Tipsy is just a shade above .500 in tie breaks for his career. Raonic is upwards of 64%. If Raonic has the torpedo serve loaded, will be tough to see anything but tie breaks determining this one.

Sounds like you think it's fifty / fifty game and are going with Raonic cause of the value? If Raonic was +110 would you still bet on him? or no play?

**Yezzir** · 01-08-12, 07:16 AM

Raonic is all over Tipsy's service games, needs to take a break though.

**beefcake** · 01-08-12, 11:06 AM

Great call on Milos EP..he is now +9500 to win the Aussie..

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 12:47 PM

Every once in a while my write-ups make me sound like I know what I am talking about.

**Yezzir** · 01-08-12, 02:29 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Every once in a while my write-ups make me sound like I know what I am talking about.

Top tipping bro.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 04:48 PM

I don't know that I have ever seen a match where there were three tie breaks with the identical 7-4 score in each breaker either. Nuckin futs!

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 05:13 PM

The Elbow: 10-11-2 [-2.52]

Peng pending, but she's down in the 3rd.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 05:27 PM

Parlay: Petkovic + Mello [+140]
Petkovic opens against Payvlyuchenkova in Sydney. Both got dressed down by Kanepi in Brisbane, but at least Petkovic fought hard in one of her sets. Their one meeting last year on this surface went to Petkovic in straights. Figure it to be a fight, but I think Petkovic has more consistency to get through. Mello is trying to finish off qualis in Auckland and draws Bohli. Bohli was not sharp in his match yesterday and barely survived in three sets. Double faults and a poor 2nd serve really hurt him. Mello again is a Brazlian who does not mind this surface and generally is very solid to start the year - although the majority of the time he has been doing this section of the year in Brazil. If he serves solidly, he should advance.

WTA Sydney: Kuznetsova +100
Take a deep breath, Russian v. Russian with Zvonareva here. Zvonareva has started each of the last two years in the same shape before the Australian Open ... poorly. Her record at this tournament is a disaster at 1-6. Kuznetsova has played fairly well [11-6] at this tournament over the years and already has match play under her belt from last week. She did not look great losing to Zheng, but with Zvonareva's track record early before the Aussie Open, I like Sveta here.

**Yezzir** · 01-08-12, 06:20 PM

When I looked earlier, Kuznetsova is the price that stood out too.. also Zvon hasn't played since the end of October?

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 06:52 PM

Yep. Doesn't mean she can't win because Kuznetsova isn't very consistent from tournament to tournament, but with the way Vera has started the last two seasons and her record at this tourney - worth a shot to me.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 07:43 PM

Don't know why I didn't put Muller in there. I am not a fan of Sweeting against power players at all. Actually could not believe Muller was the dog ... but forgot.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 08:41 PM

Well Mello ****** that parlay right up.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 09:01 PM

Peng down in 3. Damn the man.

**Yezzir** · 01-08-12, 09:20 PM

Just pulled the trigger on Ebden, like that spot.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 09:24 PM

Thought about that one. Not sure. Granollers has tournaments where he gets on a roll out of nowhere and wins 2-4 on hard courts. Lookin at Stosur-Schiavone. Been thinking about Schiavone +3.5 at plus money most of the day. Stosur has cleaned her clock on hard courts before, but Schiavone beat her in Fed Cup play in Australia last year ... and comes in off a terrible loss to Benesova.

**Yezzir** · 01-08-12, 09:26 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Thought about that one. Not sure. Granollers has tournaments where he gets on a roll out of nowhere and wins 2-4 on hard courts. Lookin at Stosur-Schiavone. Been thinking about Schiavone +3.5 at plus money most of the day. Stosur has cleaned her clock on hard courts before, but Schiavone beat her in Fed Cup play in Australia last year ... and comes in off a terrible loss to Benesova.

I really like Schiavone in that spot.. Couldn't bring myself to go with Kuz, just don't trust either enough.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 09:30 PM

I don't trust any WTA player. Gonna see how Sveta turns out and then make up my mind on Schiavone.

**Yezzir** · 01-08-12, 09:33 PM

I was also tempted by Georges, as I do like to fade Jelena at those sort of odds.. still thinking about it, may handicap it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 01-08-12, 09:42 PM

Goerges was terrbile against Kerber. I know she whipped JJ last year, but tough to like her here for me at least. Not that I would back Jankovic unless it's for using in a parlay.

**Yezzir** · 01-08-12, 09:44 PM

Originally posted by EaglesPhan36

Goerges was terrbile against Kerber. I know she whipped JJ last year, but tough to like her here for me at least. Not that I would back Jankovic unless it's for using in a parlay.

Yeah, was a pure value suggestion, I will probably stay away and stick to the Ebden and maybe Schiavone.

**brettels** · 01-08-12, 10:05 PM

Schiavone played sick in her last match in brisbane! She may not be 100%