3 plays that stick out for me are Viktor Troicki +4.5, Dominika Cibulkova and Jarmila Groth +2.5. I have a fairly large card today, I like quite a few of the matchups. Goodluck today.
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Couple surprisingly low prices for the top 2 players in the world. Nadal is just -335 against Gulbis. No way in hell Gulbis knocks off Nadal. No way!!! Federer is -545. That's surprising when compared to the Nadal price considering Troicki has a way better shot than Gulbis. Parlay time.Comment -
Nadal is ill. Gulbis may just win tomorrow. Nadal will lose tomorrow or the next day I think. He admitted he's fatigued from the illness, but still played doubles. That's the reason you see the Nadal price low, it's worth a shot to me.Comment -
totally agree that gulbis has a better chance than troicki and the linesmakers/oddsmakers have this relatively correct. That also makes me concerned that at this point there may not be +ev depending how strongly factored in (and accurately) the fatigue/illness is. I'm probably gonna end up taking a minimum unit bet on gulbis and throw him in a parlay or two, but I don't feel as confident as I should.Comment -
I think the best bet for the Gulbis/Nadal match is the over 21 games. I really can't see it wrapping up in straight sets and think that there will be a tie-break in the game.Comment -
Hey guys. I've been pounding back pain pills today because my head is killing so you may want to ignore what I like for the rest of the day.
I'm on Baggy and I also like Groth +132, Tipsy and Haase with the handicap, Wawrinka 2-0 and taking Gulbis +280 for a little because it's just kind of silly not to try.
Best of luck everyone!
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Scratch that Wawa 2-0. Thought the price was much higher. No way in hell I'm paying -200 for that.
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glad to see the tennis season up and alive already.
we've got the next couple of... uhhh... months. coming full of action. 12 months. of sweating. and grinding. lets get this shari!!!
like groth at + value starting in a bit!Comment -
Working too hard today to post
I am on Groth over 21.5 tonight.
Also liking the Tsonga cap.
WTF was with Cibulkova today
BtBComment -
is there a site that has under player profiles what there prefered surface is?Comment -
You might find this site useful. Has an easy to read breakdown of record by surface.
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Had a win with Tsonga+Fed+Nadal Parlay. (Although Tsonga made me sweat).
Made up for the Groth loss. She was awol last night.
BtBComment -
Nadal pulled through. No sweat. I like Goerges tonight. She and Arn are both playing good but Goerges is 9 years younger if stamina comes into play. Also, she seems to be on the rise. Hopefully she pulls through in this one.Comment -
Hey Shari, do you have an opinion on Andrea Petkovic vs Marion Bartoli? Both players came out at PK odds but Petrovic has since become a slight favourite to which I am somewhat confused. I capped this matchup as Bartoli as at least a 2-3 point favourite. Maybe the fact that Petrovic beat crowd favourite Groth has something to do with it. Cheers in advance for any information you can shed on this matchup. I'm sticking with my guns and taking Bartoli because I feel she can easily get the job done but i'm confused over the line movement. I also have a large play on Kvitova as I feel she is in good form and Pavlyuchenkova will come out flat after last nights performance.Comment -
Also do you know where you can get previous game stats for womans tennis? I know the ATP website lists the game reports next to each games completed results but the WTA website does not. Cheers in advance.Comment -
Mahut is going to own Starace today at the Hopman Cup. Mahut -2.5
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Hi Shari! how u doing? What's new around? Tennis already started this year?
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Bartoli and Petkovic is tough for me to pick and I may end up staying away altogether. Petkovic has been playing really well for awhile now and even when Groth jumped out ahead, she didn't lose concentration like so many women are prone to do. She just kept grinding away and waited for her spots to get back into it. She smashes the ball and plays very aggressively and when she's on top of her game like she is now, she's really impressive.
I'm not sure why the line is moving the way it has but my guess would be it's partly because of the Groth factor like you mentioned and partly because Bartoli is well-known to be a bit of a nutter as she progresses through latter rounds in tourneys. Mentally she struggles to stay in the game as the quality of her opponents increase and I think she may have trouble dealing with her serve coming back at her. Bartoli also isn't in the best of shape. I was on her yesterday against Strycova and I was grateful each time Strycova struggled to get the ball over the net and missed an easy winner because Bartoli looked like she was going to drop from the heat at times.
Considering Marion's fitness and her tendency to wobble, I think the line movement isn't that surprising although again, I may stay away. If I must be a degenerate and play, I'll be on Petkovic. I think.
I use TennisInsight for all of my stats and a large portion of my capping. It's a paid stats site geared towards tennis bettors and between them and the OnCourt database, I haven't found anything that comes close to offering the same amount of info. It sucks that you have to pay at all but the price is low and they offer 2 week memberships as well which I know people just buy during a specific tournament, let it lapse and then repurchase again as needed. There may be a free site out there but I honestly couldn't tell you.
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Cheers for the insight
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goerges iziii winner!
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Goerges had 3 set points and lost them all. She is now melting down in the tiebreak. Arn is also acing her a bunch.Comment -
Goerges breaks in the 1st game of the 2nd set! Time to dig in! Goerges is kinda hot too.Comment -
And Goerges is broken at love. Her service points are shit right now.Comment -
Damn. Goerges loss ended up screwing me more than I thought it would. Made a hard parlay that paid more than 13x times my money and she was the only loss. Didn't think it had much of a chance but in fact she screwed it. I hate Arn!!!!!!Comment -
Much obliged. I have a great deal of respect for Max and the niche he created in this industry, but I suspected it would be a relative newcomer to the industry which would offer such options. Enjoy the gravy train while it lasts.
Originally posted by StraitShooterComment -
I keep hearing nay sayers. But I hardly even see a risk. I keep a hundred or so bucks in g0ld pay and can instantly transfer winnings above that into Greek or Betjam or 5Dimes.
Although I do agree some of the parlay options make me wonder if they can stay profitable.
According to the public wager history, they are $31,000 in the red from the last 870k worth or bets
Sites a bit clunky and grading is slowish, but everything else about the site, especially the lines, parlay options and the owner's attitude to customers, is better than the other 3 offshore places I have accounts..Comment -
For those chalk lovers out there, I really can't see Mattek-Sands losing to Robson. She's paying approx $1.25 and starts in about 30 minutes.
I think I'm going to jump on the under 20 -105 for this one. I pretty much blow at totals but I've watched each of Robson's matches here and I just don't think she's going to be able to deal with Bethanie at all. I actually wouldn't be surprised if she broke down crying at one point as she seemed pretty close the other day.Comment -
Thanks for the insight, Shari. The price of Mattek-Sands has dropped to 1.16 on Betfair. I'll still put some money on her. Good luck to all!
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