Stacocakes Sony Ericsson Open thread

**MUHerd37** · 03-30-10, 11:20 PM

I thought it was all over on match point for Federer. Replay showed ball was wide and I thought thats it.

**EaglesPhan36** · 03-30-10, 11:43 PM

This is why you d\shouldn't EVER go big over -200 in tennis. At Slams, maybe ... but in any other tournament, -200 or more should be in a parlay only.

**raydog** · 03-30-10, 11:46 PM

parlays chucked

**fixxer** · 03-31-10, 06:26 AM

Yes, it was a good lesson, never ever bet (big) on Federer outside a grand slam....he is clearly lacking motivation, which is not a suprise after these years.

I still think, that Berdych he didn't play very well, just this mediocre game was enough against a Federer hitting 61 (!!!!!) unforced errors.

I was 99% sure that he won this when Berdych lost the challenge at tie: 5-5 , and I still don't know how can Roger fook this...
I don't say that Berdych is a bad player (clearly, not, but not a top 10 material either), in this game, Federer couldn't defeat himself....

Anyways, grats to the Berdych backers

**Tsonga** · 03-31-10, 07:06 AM

Originally posted by fixxer

Yes, it was a good lesson, never ever bet (big) on Federer outside a grand slam....he is clearly lacking motivation, which is not a suprise after these years. I still think, that Berdych he didn't play very well, just this mediocre game was enough against a Federer hitting 61 (!!!!!) unforced errors. I was 99% sure that he won this when Berdych lost the challenge at tie: 5-5 , and I still don't know how can Roger fook this... I don't say that Berdych is a bad player (clearly, not, but not a top 10 material either), in this game, Federer couldn't defeat himself.... Anyways, grats to the Berdych backers

Why does everyone want to give Fed the exuse of being un-motivated?? Its just like Tiger Woods...he is mainly concerned about majors (just like Fed). But that does not mean he does not try to win everything else...

in a best of 3 he can lose to anyone playing really well....in a best of 5 in a major that is a far bigger task for someone to knock him off.
Fed was motivated...not like for a slam but he was trying to win. He just got beat...I don't like how every time he loses people say he wasn't motivated...he was working hard and lost to the better player last night. and Fed had his chances...match point too...just didn't convert.

In a best of 5 set match Fed is much tougher to knock off - in a best of 3 he can lose...remember Berdych had him to sets to zero in the A-open...and then Fed came back to win 3-2. If the A-open was just best of 3 everyone would be saying Fed is unmotivated.

**obie** · 03-31-10, 07:19 AM

yeah! Verdaso WON. Really nice night yesterday, lets get the bookies today also! I really Roddick to win in straight sets, any thoughts?

**fixxer** · 03-31-10, 09:11 AM

I didn't say that he didn't want to win. (tho if Davydenko would have played the same game in the first set, as Federer did, I would call a sure fix)

Being unmotivated doesn't mean, he wants to lose, or doesn't want to win.

Simply, for Federer, who won nearly anything he could, playing in a smaller tournament means nothing.
If wins it - whatever. If not, who cares....
And for this reason, his game can be unpredictable in smaller tourneys....and I fell for this against Berdych.

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 10:26 AM

Looks like lots of money is coming in on Nadal. Tsonga was about +138 last night and I was thinking that maybe it wasn't worth it to bet on him but now Tsonga is +162 so he is looking alot better then last night. Going to wait a bit since the match is at night time to see if the odds move.

Roddick -455 over Almagro is a no play. Could take a flyer on Almagro and see what happens but I don't think he will win.

Clijsters is -406. To big. Still have Clijsters outright so I am going to wait it out and hope she gets to the semifinals or the finals. Head to head is 2-0 Clijsters here but both matches were before 2007. Stosur is playing some good tennis and in wta anything can happen. Might be worth it to try Stosur at +360 but I don't want to be betting against my outright. I will just pass here.

Henin is a big price over Wozniacki.Both players coming into this match playing well. THere were some concerns about Wozniacki's healthy before her second match of the tournament but she ended up beating Kirilenko so I guess everything is ok. I think Henin wins this match but Wozniacki is really good so I don't feel comfortable betting Henin at -263 in this situation. Henin's serve is really poor right now so I am just going to pass on this match and save on some stress for the day.

Going to sit back and see what happens with the Tsonga line. Hopefully he becomes more of a dog and then I will take a chance on him tonight over Rafa.

Do you guys like anything?

**obie** · 03-31-10, 11:03 AM

I really think Roddick is to big for Almagro. Roddick with a huge serve, O.K baseline shots with great power (sometimes), and his unforced errors % is pretty low! So, I simply cant see almagro take a set against Roddick, which I think can go all the way in this tournament.

My bet: Roddick to win 2-0 @ 1,50

**Tsonga** · 03-31-10, 12:46 PM

I think Roddick will win...and I hope he will too because of my atp bracket...I think this is a great surface for him and he is more solid than Almagro. Should be close though and possibly 3 sets...if its 2 sets its Roddick. Don't think there is any way that Almagro wins 2-0.

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 01:52 PM

Surprised that Wozniacki is beating Henin right now. I am thinking this match goes a third set

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 01:57 PM

Henin just blew 3 bps

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 02:16 PM

Henin wins the second set

Match has already been two hours geez

I think Henin takes the third set here. Going to take some in-play henin at -175

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 02:22 PM

Totally thought Henin would break the first game of the third set and it would be easy from there. Guess not

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 02:31 PM

Break Henin huge

In on Henin at -175 at the start of the set and out 3 games later on Woz at +360. Can sit back and relax now

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 02:34 PM

Jumped out of that bet to early.Could have got +400 seconds later and could have got +580 after Henin just held but didn't want to risk losing it

**BernardMadoff** · 03-31-10, 02:35 PM

Do you guys do in play betting? Was times in this match had you bet both sides at different times, you would win a decent amount either way, love the swings.

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 02:39 PM

Yup Madoff I do in-play tennis for all of the matches. Not sure where you live but if you are a non-usa player you can play at Betfair,Bet 365 and Pinnacle. I use them all for tennis. Betfair has all of the matches inplay while Pinnacle has some select matches each day.
Lots of people make a living off of the swings in the tennis matches especially wta. I don't have enough balls to back a player that is getting killed because usually when I do that player just ends up getting killed even more and the match is over.

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 02:40 PM

Going to go for lunch and get away from my computer so I don't make any additional bets on this match. The Roddick match is next and thats a definate no bet.The odds are pretty poor to say the least

**Totolover1409** · 03-31-10, 02:42 PM

What do you think of Tsonga upsetting Nadal?

**tailmypicks** · 03-31-10, 02:45 PM

slept 4 hours in the evening........missed henin

**MUHerd37** · 03-31-10, 02:48 PM

Henin taking it easily

**tailmypicks** · 03-31-10, 02:53 PM

nadal was able to beat tsonga in france at a time when he looked piss poor late last year, i think in the very next london tourney he wasnt even able to win a set in his three matches. So if Tsonga cant beat him in the comfort of his home country when nadal was in his worst form, it is hard to see how he can do it against a rejuvenated nadal now who has somewhat found his hardcourt form.

I like Nadal in this one but it is always scary to bet on Nadal against an all out attackign guy like Tsonga. Tsonga is similar to ivan with his big serve and power strokes and is a better mover too. O **** i cant decide so mad to miss henin match now i have to bet on something i dont feel comfy with

**MUHerd37** · 03-31-10, 03:04 PM

Just wait and live bet the Tsonga/Nadal match

**JNic** · 03-31-10, 03:15 PM

almagro looks wild from the baseline early on

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 04:16 PM

Looks like Roddick is going to take this match

I think Nadal will beat Tsonga but I agree it is always scary backing Nadal in a match like this when his opponent can bash him off of the court. Tough to say whether it will happen tonight or not. I am still debating about this match

**Totolover1409** · 03-31-10, 04:22 PM

Just recommended another person to this thread.

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 04:23 PM

I can see some +180 right now on Tsonga. Odds are to good to pass up at this point. Going to hope the Tsonga show's up that can bash Nadal off of the court and if he doesn't, at least the odds were decent. I don't bet against Nadal often

Tsonga +180

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 04:23 PM

Nice Toto the more the merrier

Who do you like tonight?

**simonsolent** · 03-31-10, 04:35 PM

Hi guys, new Brit on the block. Toto invited me over here, love all my sports betting, mainly soccer but really getting into mlb, nba and nfl. Is there money to be made on the tennis?

**BernardMadoff** · 03-31-10, 04:48 PM

Originally posted by simonsolent

Hi guys, new Brit on the block. Toto invited me over here, love all my sports betting, mainly soccer but really getting into mlb, nba and nfl. Is there money to be made on the tennis?

Last few weeks Ive made most of my money on tennis, hope that answers your question.

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 04:49 PM

Welcome Simonsolent
There's money to be made in every sport. If you want to bet tennis I suggest having a gambling site that has live-betting so you can minimize your losses on occasion or guarantee some profit in other matches. The only crappy thing about tennis is that the prices for alot of these matches, especially the first 3 rounds, are usually brutal. I figure it's best to put a -500 favorite in a 4 player parlay then it is to bet the four players individually at those prices. I know years ago I used to bet the -500 favorites and though they would usually win there were days that went really really bad.
I am guessing since you are a Brit that you use Betfair and that's probably the best site to use for tennis betting. Has all of the matches in-play which is great. Most of the successfull gamblers trade the match as opposed to picking an actual winner of the match. This involves betting lots of underdogs often and for me thats not the type of approach that I take to it. I don't like losing money no matter what so I try to pick the matches that I think have the best chance of winning and I usually back the favorites because when I bet the dogs they usually lose. Many different approaches to take to this game you just have to manage your money right and you can make money in tennis and every other sport that's out there.

Best of luck

**simonsolent** · 03-31-10, 04:59 PM

Staco, thank you very much for the warm welcome. You're spot on with your Betfair assumption; its by far the best way to bet (trade) over here because you can change your position at any time (play/lay). For a bit of fun i've just invested my winnings from the Arsenal/Barca game on Tsonga @110 with a +2.5 game adv against Nadal. Thanks again. BOL guys

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 06:01 PM

Sure hope Clijsters wins tonight. Need her for my outright. Not touching this particular match

**Stacocakes** · 03-31-10, 06:11 PM

Clijsters break.That was fast haha

I saw the -5.5 games and figured that was a bit to much but maybe not