completely hedged out with Riba +800s
don't trust Sam. can't lose now.
don't trust Sam. can't lose now.
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Comment -
Hate to clutter threads but have to say that I'm doing well betting your picks,Snowball.Comment -
Guys i already had Isner and Pennetta and one with Haase posted from yesterday
here are other plays in majors i like today they can be arranged however you choose.
for example there could be alternative combinations.
i may also have some us open qualy bets to make.
Isner, Robredo, Lu, Vasselin, Anderson
+242
Haase +106
Granollers +106
Sousa +195
Johnson -101
Anderson -3.5 (-120)
Garcia/Strycova over 21.5 (-130)
Bouchard -160Comment -
Qualies
Sandgren +220
Dutra-Silva +120
J. Pospisil +110
Copil(ml)/Gerasimov(ml) +148
Rus -130
Broady +105
Sanchez(ml)/Sasnovich(ml) .95/1
mixed parlay +597
Vasselin,Anderson,Bouchard,Russell,Geras imov,JaksicLast edited by Snowball; 08-19-14, 10:55 AM.Comment -
Flavia struggled and lost.. a match she shouldn't have.. but it's hard when
you're old in tennis against a young American rising player on her home court
.. she will probably retire after this year. I put in a small hedge with Alison Riske somewhere in the -200s when it looked bad.
Anyway also dissapointed in Sousa not pulling
the upset, so close. But there are still some bright spots.
Adding Goffin ML -225 and a little heavier on Granollers.
Robredo I had a funny feeling but it's still not over. If Robredo can't come back
and win this match, he's a bum in my eyes.Comment -
Roger-Vasselin +2.5 (-110)
Goffin / Anderson +154
Bouchard, Tatishvili, Majeric, Zanevska +404
i also have some leftover action on Bouchard.
US Open Qualifiers
Wang, Zanevska .88/1
Kumkhum, Tatishvili .86/1
Dominguez-Lino, Zanevska .95/1
Majeric +100 (largest bet)
Kozlova +125
Karatantcheva +110
Lim +230
Eikeri +230Last edited by Snowball; 08-20-14, 10:11 AM.Comment -
well i think i have to stay away from the qualifying matches
there is no way to tell with these less talented players.
my bad. I am IFFING everything over to Eugenie Bouchard tonight
who I am already on... in the future I plan to bet less of these
plays and try to be more sure of who I am betting on.
I also intend to focus more on team sports again instead of single-player
games. I was hot but now seem to be reverting to norm and that scares me.
Once ncaa basketball and football start I'll rarely be betting tennis.
It can still be a positive day for me but will need Anderson, Zanevska
and Bouchard.. the two K broads wouldn't hurt either... but then it's
Bouchard or I throw the litter box tennis picks into the garbage and
do a big WNBA playoff 10+ pt 4-team super teaser tomorrow/Fri.Comment -
stick with it kitty!! a 250 tourney before a grandslam is going to be a poop show. you will get the hang of it. Also dont force plays. let them come to you when your mind is ready. i have moments probably like 5 weeks this season where everything was just so clear on how matches would play out. Practice this in all tourneys but dont bet money unless its crystal clear to you and you have been hot on your most current non bet leans.Comment -
not ready to quit yet..
Bemelmans / Polansky +140
Bemelmans, Polansky, Isner, Querrey, Di w.u, Bhambri, Jabeur, Kania, Chirico, Oudin
+96/1
Di W.U (-130) enough to cover above parlayLast edited by Snowball; 08-21-14, 10:01 AM.Comment -
dang something was really telling me darcis would beat russell. why is russell
still playing at 36 years old i guess to pay the bills.Comment -
what a gag by Bemelmans. I guess the Asian "home cooking" in the stands ?
DiWu / Polansky +213
Giorgi +110Comment -
amazing action with Asian players today 8-0 see other thread.
needed that DiWu/Polansky and it hit.
rooting for Giorgi. added a bit to her +115 at 5d reduced.
Querrey should win and cover but I'm getting sick of tennis
right now.Comment -
pitching in for some Giorgi 2-0 @ 353Comment -
ok over in Winnipeg challenger there is a play i see as "likely"
where Tori Kinard, an American player of 27 years age
who hasn't been impressive enough to be a heavy favorite against anyone
but looks physically fit is going against a 15 year old girl... the girl doesn't
have much of a record yet, sure she will have a better career than Tori Kinard
maybe even be a WTA player, who knows but she's 15 and small..
over there another big longshot with a somewhat chance is Parris Todd @ 1500.
I'll put a tiny on her just in case she has luck. She's 16.
Giorgi / Kinard .96/1
Todd +1500
Giorgi / Todd / open spot parlay...Comment -
A querry is a person who grooms horses
ok guys listen this is why i like qeurrey in the match.
he was once beaten by Janowiz but it was on clay in Madrid.
Sam kills it on Hard especially with his serve which many find undefendable.
Let's take a look at Jano's return stats.
overall his return game is 14% of games and 33% of points on Hard.
That is low. Sam is going to win virtually every service point.
His return stats are just a tad better than Jano's at 17/24 Hard.
Sam is 80% 1st serve, 50% 2nd. Jano is 74/47. Again slightly better.
But where it really differentiates is Aces/DBF's. Jano is 276/221
Sam is 479/98. Hello. Sam is 77-53 on Hard with 47% of his matches
on the surface. Janowicz is a mere 24-21 on Hard, only 18% of his
matches on the surface.
This would be a great tournament for Sam to win. He can take Rosol
if he wins tonight, for sure. The crowd will be on his side.
Querrey / Phoenix Mercury ML .97/1Last edited by Snowball; 08-22-14, 05:00 PM.Comment -
here are some plays i like straight leaving out heavy favorites in parlays
which anyone can do on their own.
- 8/25/2014 11:00 AM ATP Tennis 185 Sergiy Stakhovsky* +150 vs Andreas Seppi
- 8/26/2014 11:00 AM ATP Tennis 345 Jurgen Melzer* -110 vs Marcel Granollers
- 8/25/2014 2:00 PM WTA Tennis 650 Johanna Larsson* -135 vs Virginie Razzano
- 8/25/2014 12:30 PM WTA Tennis 654 Tsvetana Pironkova* +158 vs Karin Knapp
- 8/26/2014 11:00 AM WTA Tennis 601 Zarina Diyas* -150 vs Lesia Tsurenko
i also like Bagnis +8.5 vs Kohls and maybe even the guy against Djoker +11.5Last edited by Snowball; 08-25-14, 08:43 AM.Comment -
here's some more +/- even sides i like.
no reason to get into all the parlays i'm on
Vasselin +5.5
McHale -125
Kania +110
Pironkova +3.5
Gibbs +135Comment -
Bagnis +8.5, Pironkova, Larsson winners.
Stak the only loser.
I have tons of parlays going.
btw i also like Chiudinelli +130 over Marchenko.
some other single over +100 plays I'm on
are Parmentier, Lorenzi, Darcis, Dodig.Last edited by Snowball; 08-25-14, 04:26 PM.Comment -
hit lorenzi, mchale, parmentier with the +4 but not ml
diyas winning too.
dodig, darcis, chiudinelli tomorrow.
gibbs/garcia kind of a tossup go with the dog, gibbs.Comment -
Good job snowball, keep it upComment -
gibbs hit.
tomorrow i like Dodig 125, Darcis 157, Chiudinelli 135
Larsson +6, Pironkova +6 Sasnovich +7.5 Cepelova/Halep O 17.5
longshot mls Larsson 430, Pironkova 560, Carreno-Busta 250, Bachinger 885, Gabashvili 245, Bolelli 415, Ebden 240
most of these don't have point spreads yet but i'll prob like them with points
also.
relatively safe ML's Radwanska, Errani, Cornet, Lisicki, Sharapova, Kerber
Janowicz, Anderson, Gulbis, Cilic, Wawrinka.
realize Larsson, Pironkova, Sasno "could" get blown out but unlikely
they are too good of players despite the star quality of their opponents.
Same with Cepelova but like the o 17.5 vs Halep.
Dodig, Darcis, Chiudinelli esp the last two certainly playing strong.
Rad, Errani, Sharap, Kerb the strongest of the ML's
watch out for the men in the heat playing what could be 4-5 sets.
That's why I have Bachinger vs Murray and Murray has been in pain.
Busta is a good player on hard and Paire is coming off a 5 set marathon
with Benneteau that could be not as fresh as his opponent Busta.
Gabash, Ebden second rank decent chance but don't go big.
Bolelli another fresh player vs Robredo who is likely wearing down
I am not a Robredo fan. He's always one match away from collapse
and this could be the one. So at 415 Bolelli has value.Last edited by Snowball; 08-26-14, 07:57 PM.Comment -
additions:
doubles Cornet/Flipkens +180
doubles Pliskova/Pliskova +177
doubles Chirico/Stewart +314
doubles Min/Oudin +170
doubles Gibbs/Sanchez -110
doubles DelBonis/Falla +245
doubles parlay (230) Vas/Ben, Cab/Far, Bry/Bry, Jones/Spears, Krumm/StrycovaComment -
radwanska shitting the bedComment -
That takes care of that....Larsson +475
Thanks for the gumball, LitterboxComment -
guys i'm giving tennis a rest it's just not worth the aggravation.
not quitting a loser but after all the tiebreakers and 5th sets and
retires I'm done... going to refocus on other sports where less
can go wrong and the profits are more reliable. once in a while
i'll throw certain matches in parlays but in general there's too
much chance involved in this sport.
Dodig retiring due to injury, Chiudinelli 3 tiebreakers, Darcis up 2 sets
then loses 3, I don't want to bother anymore. I have like 7 open parlays
going forward with winners like Larsson, Gabashvili, Pironkova +6,
Lorenzi, etc. but don't want to chance the remaining bets
on this crap. NCAA football is coming up and so is NFL then NCAA hoops.
Maybe I'll chime in once in a while but it's time to move on. You don't have
to be a loser to move on.Last edited by Snowball; 08-27-14, 03:43 PM.Comment -
well I'm going to keep the thread alive.. just because I have some action going forward
and there isn't much else going on especially during the day. I'm taking the open parlay
approach, here are some sides I like.
- Pospisil/Sock -350 they are both eliminated in singles, so are focused on doubles, and
are already an established successful pairing. not crazy about the line but in parlays ok.
- Isner -5.5 -105 He didn't look too great edging out Giron, but even with 2 tiebreakers
he won in 3 straight sets by 4. He's had a day of rest, as long as his back doesn't blow out
and his serve is on spot 5.5 shouldn't be a problem.
- Bolelli +400 I have him in a parlay to win. He's beaten Robredo in 2 of 4 matches. Robredo is
the better Hard surface player, however he is getting old and the extended format could work
against him, making it possible for Bolelli to take this match.
- Stosur -335 she's been reliable and shouldn't have a problem today. ok for parlays.
- Coco V +155 she's been playing well and has more power than Navarro. I think she could get
revenge today for last year when Navarro eliminated her in the Us Open. She's the more powerful
hitter. She's going to have to keep Navarro on the baseline and corners which I think she can do.
the spread is +3 (-110) which could be a better bet depending on your method.
- Rogers +230 there is value here as Pennetta is nearing retirement and Rogers has been defeating
some better ranking players, she is American and will have the crowd behind her. I would not say
she is likely to win but at these odds she's worth taking because she probably has about a 40% chance.
spread +4 is juiced to -125
- Pavlyuchenkova -4.5(-125) -320 shouldn't have any problem burning Gibbs off the court.
- Kvitova, Keys... hard to see either losing but they are heavy favorites
- McHale +5 (-128) +318 is the play considering Azarenka's gimpy knee problem. If Christina can force her
to cover the whole court this match is winnable. She will have the crowd behind her. Still of course there is risk as Christina will have to have a good return game and know what she has to do ahead of time today.
- Diyas -5 (-112) -425 the Cinderella Bellis had her day, it ends now. She has nothing that can hurt Diyas.
- Bouchard -5, -335 Cirstea has been better in her last couple matches, including doubles, but had a losing period also recently.. I see her losing tonight and continuing in doubles. She could be a tough beat if she plays next to flawlessly but that is unlikely, it is more likely that Bouchard doesn't have any problem at all.
- Jankovic/Koukalova on Hard -185 i like them vs the Japanese pair
- Hingis/Pennetta -185 this pair has been impressive enough to contend for the doubles crown and Rybarikova had to quit play in her last match.
- Mixed - Cornet/Huey over Oudin/Ram seems undervalued at -210
-Comment -
McHale doing well.Comment -
Pospisil/Sock and Jankovic/Koukalova in with the wins.
McHale started strong but then lost her edge. The line was lower because of Az knee but McHale should have kept this closer. I think it says more about McHale's weakness as a player than about Azarenka's condition to compete with top tier in this tournament.Comment -
Good observation, Snowball. Been listening live here and there. All I know is that her play started going south after I said she was playing well. My bad, I should know better than saying stuff like that on matches I have money on.Comment -
things i am on
conservative open parlay build: ferrer, cilic, dimitrov, murray, raonic....
conservative open parlay build: ferrer, dimitrov, monfils, kerber, woz....
high payout open parlay build: cilic, dimitrov, cabal/farah, nestor/zim, paes/step, lipsky/ram, kerber,
vinci +3.5, woz, errani ml, will/will....
cabal/farah -135
woz -4.5
errani +4.5
mannarino +5.5
larsson +6Comment -
do u like woz to win 2-0? or in other words -1.5 sets?Comment
