Serve's Up: Set #1

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-14-09, 03:05 PM

The serving numbers seriously I don't even think you see those at a tennis club between a couple four year olds. Just 33% won on 1st serve.

**dennisback** · 08-14-09, 03:36 PM

dementieva is an excellent returner though. plus wozniacki relies on UEs of her opponent which Lena didnt give her

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-15-09, 11:55 AM

Play #29: (Set: 3-1, Game: 30-15)
CINCINNATI, OHIO
Flavia Pennetta +175 (Safina)
Safina has dominated Pennetta 7-0 lifetime, but Pennetta is on some different sort of level of consciousness right now. Safina really pulled out all the rollercoaster moves in the 2nd set against Clijsters yesterday, rallying from a 1-5 hole and then narrowly escaping with a 7-5 set win. There's a chance Pennetta could show fatigue, but as we saw with Del Potro - form is form and Pennetta has the best form of any WTA player right now. Certainly worth a shot at the price.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-16-09, 10:59 AM

Play #29 Result: [L] (Set: 3-1, Game: 30-30)

Play #30
MONTREAL, QUEBEC
Murray/Del Potro OVER 23 Games (-125)
Murray has been pretty dominant this week, having not lost a set in Montreal. Del Potro meanwhile has shown a lot of grit & determination in getting to his second straight Final. Fatigue may play a factor as he was out on the court longer yesterday, but DP has shown some solid resiliency in recent weeks. I'm hoping the worst case scenario here is that if one of them wins in straights, a push could come in with a 7-6, 6-4 scoreline similar to Murray-Tsonga yesterday. I think with as well as Del Potro has been serving, even Murray's great return game will be put to the test. For me, that means even if it's a two setter, we could get a 7-5 or 7-6 scoreline in one of the sets. They've met three times in the past year with Murray winning twice, both on hard courts (Miami & last year's US Open). The US Open match was very tight with two tie breaks and a 7-5 set in a 4 set affair. The Miami encounter was a 3 setter with some lop sided sets in Murray's favor, the "uneven" sets may have been due in part to Del Potro's match against Nadal in the previous round that went to a 3rd set tie break. Could mean something similar today, could mean nothing. Weather looks like it will continue to be about the same as it's been all week, in the mid 80s or so during this match.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-16-09, 02:40 PM

Play #30 Result: [W] (Set: 3-1, Game: 40-30)

Regardless of the outcome, this one is already a winner. Del Potro is impressive. Murray still fighting. Think DP is gonna finish it in straights.

**MexicanStallion** · 08-16-09, 02:44 PM

Nice work Eagles. I think that was my first sets wager. I am glad I was able to cash that one easy enough.

**yisman** · 08-16-09, 02:46 PM

Murray's outpointed him.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-16-09, 02:49 PM

Tie breaker coming up. We'll see if Del Potro amps it up again or not.

**yisman** · 08-16-09, 02:58 PM

93-83 in favor of Murray.

Just an example of how sometimes the inferior player can pull the upset.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-16-09, 03:07 PM

Murray won a lot of points on DP's serve, but DP had come up with all the big points when he needed it. DP is really gassed now though. Live bettors would clean up on Murray.

**yisman** · 08-16-09, 03:24 PM

Murray absolutely rolled him in the third set.

I should've done live betting after he lost the first set tiebreaker. I wonder what the odds were.

**dennisback** · 08-16-09, 05:14 PM

odds were +137 @ b365. not that good. glad i took a +150 in the 3rd set for murray to break DPs serve, i think it was 1-4 and DP already gaving up.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-09, 12:37 PM

Play #31: (Set: 3-1, Game: 40-30)
CINCINNATI, OHIO
Juan Carlos Ferrero -135 (Cilic)
Cilic's transition back to hard courts from clay have been woeful as he lost to an out-of-form Youzhny last week & Somdev Devvarman the tournament prior to that. Cilic's serve has not been winning him as many points as you'd expect on 1st serve in particular, just around 60% in those two matches. JCF meanwhile has continued his resurgent 2009 campaign with a decent transition to the hard surface that he had not been on since the Australian swing early in the season. Ferrero looks hell bent on making a run into the Top 20 and he has nothing but points to win if he gets results during this summer hard court swing. Cilic certainly has the talent to win on this surface, but confidence appears to be with the veteran here who I believe will carry through.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-17-09, 03:11 PM

Play #31 Result: [L] (Set: 3-1, 40-40)

Giving up early on this one. Cilic's found his serve and JCF's is mediocre. Shoulda taken Chardy which is what I liked better, but did the old 2nd guess job. Loverly.

**yisman** · 08-17-09, 03:20 PM

Ugh, a Chardy win would make me 3-1.

I was really hoping for the clean sweep after my first three picks won in straight sets (assuming Cilic finishes off this second set).

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-09, 09:56 AM

Play #32: (Set: 3-1, Game: 40-40)
CINCINNATI, OHIO
Victor Hanescu +100 (Youzhny)
This one figures to feature a lot of peaks & valleys as both players come in and out of consciousness during the course of a match with their serves being the main faults. For his size, Hanescu does not possess the biggest of serves, but if he can get his first serve in consistently, it can be effective enough. Still tough to get a read on Youzhny as he beat an out-of-form Cilic last week in Montreal & a tiring Isner the round after. Youzhny does have two qualifying matches under his belt in Cincy, but he did struggle to get out of his 1st round quali - winning a 3rd set tie break. Youzhny still has some issues with untimely double faults, so this one could come down to 2nd serve. This seems destined for 3 sets with very little to separate the two, so I'll side with the slightly better price and a guy who has beaten Youzhny on the hardcourts of Doha in January and at the French.

**yisman** · 08-18-09, 10:05 AM

I agree, but I'm not picking it anyway. I don't feel like making many picks today.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-09, 10:20 AM

Yeah, seems like a lot of 50-50 ish type selections today. This one is about that. Lopez/Melzer. Soderling/Hewitt - mostly due to injury questions.

**fuglyboy86hi** · 08-18-09, 10:44 AM

youzhny has hit some clean winners so far

**yisman** · 08-18-09, 10:44 AM

^ agreed. Lot of near even lines, and most of them are real toss-ups. I lean Hewitt over Soderling because I think it's close to 50/50, but I'm not sure if I'll pick it.

btw, the Williams/Bondarenko match appears to be off the board.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-09, 11:08 AM

Other one I think I like is Hernych over Seppi. Hernych played in Montreal last week & got through qualifying in Cincy. Seppi was still playing on clay up through last week nad had to travel to the US. Gives him a slight edge. Verdasco is about to lose the first set to GGL.

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-18-09, 11:56 AM

Play #32 Result: [L] (Set: 3-1, Game: 40-ADV)

Hope you boys are making money fading me. I blow. For some reason the last couple of times I have cashed out somewhere, a shit streak has followed. That's where I am right now, so do what you think is prudent!