Wimbledon Discussion Thread 2009

[Art Vandeleigh]

I watched most of the Roddick-Berdych match. Roddick was so dominant with his serve I couldn't help but be uber-impressed. Berdych never got a Roddick service game to deuce maybe twice to -30 (stuck out his racket closed his eyes and got one down the line). Roddick was so confident about his serve you could see he couldn't give a crap when Berdych was serving he knew he had the match won by the middle of the first set, the tie-break was an illusion. If he keeps serving like that he's in the finals for sure.

Note: This review was made by someone who follows tennis on a scale of 1-10, about 0.5.

[EaglesPhan36]

Big win by Roddick today, but also a sign that Murray will probably beat him in the semis. If Hewitt pushed him this far, Murray no doubt can beat him. As I said in another thread, I'm not big on hedging in this spot though straight up on Murray for -315 or whatever it will be. I will either hedge with a parlay of Federer & Murray or perhaps take Murray to win 3-1, 3-2 for .25 unit each depending on the prices. Gonna have to look at that hard for Friday.

For Thursday, I've got a 50-50 shot of getting Venus vs. Dementieva in the Final which would cover both my futures. I'm not hedging here either. Venus is still the best grass court player of the four left IMO. I'm not going to concern myself with asking about her knee against Safina. Safina has flirted with danger with her double faults & I believe it will catch up with her sooner or later. On the other side, I honestly believe Dementieva can beat Serena. Both have crushed their opponents in route to the semis. I will probably sprinkle a little on set results with Serena 2-0, 2-1 & Dementieva 2-1. Can't see Dementieva winning in straights, although if she does, then I have a great shot in the Finals.

[EaglesPhan36]

Well Dementieva was her usual choke job self at the most inopportune moments. She'll never beat anyone like Serena or Venus in a big situation. This was a great set-up for her, but she blew it. She just needs someone like Safina or Jankovic or someone to fall into her lap in a Slam semi or final if she's going to do anything. Otherwise if it's someone with mental toughness, she'll lose. Shame too, she played a solid game and frustrated Serena as well as Serena making some key mistakes. I see Pinnacle already has Venus as a -137 favorite. Hoping that climbs, so I can take a nice hedge on Serena at maybe +135-140.

[sportscapper]

What? That's the ONLY way Kingie gets anything resembling sex!

[EaglesPhan36]

Wimbledon Futures
[2 units] Venus Williams +250
As I said before, I consider this future like a bet straight up for the Championship match. This is Venus' favorite tournament and the draw sets up well for her. Hedge opps abound in her draw and possible semis & finals match-ups as well.

[1 unit] Elena Dementieva +1100
This might well be a waste, but the more I look at her draw, the more I think she can get to the semis if she can keep her shit together. She shouldn't have too much trouble until the 4th round assuming she's steady here. Then it's Cibulkova or maybe Wickmayer, both shorter on Slam experience. QF could be Zvonareva and a hedge opportunity. Then the semis might be Serena or a surprise.

[1 unit] Andy Roddick +950
As I outlined above, I think this future presents a whole bevy of hedge opportunities if Roddick isn't fully healthy, although everything about his freak foot injury suggests he is recovered and okay. Still, as I look at his bracket, I like how it breaks for him if he's on his game and if he's not, there will be a big dog that cashes. Chardy in the 1st round is +700 or more. Dimitrov possible in the 2nd would be a bigger dog than that I would assume. 3rd round, Benjamin Becker perhaps. 4th round, Berdych, Davydenko or Mathieu and then the QF might be Del Potro or if he gets eliminated, A-Rod finds an easier path to the semis.

This last one as I look at it and Stacocakes strategy kicked into my brain, made a lot of sense. I don't expect Andy Roddick to win it all, but I do think he sets up nicely for the semis and as I said if not 100%, a big dog will grab him and I'll get a piece of that and make this futures investment back + some.

I'm going to hedge slightly with Serena at +145 tomorrow for half a unit. Still win two units if Venus wins, which I believe she will. If Serena pulls off the upset, then I get back .75 of the original investment and move on. Having to think strategy-wise what would make sense for the men's final. Believe set betting on Roger is the only effective way for me to hedge at this point. Have to wait and see the prices.

[MexicanStallion]

Good luck with your selections. You made some great Future plays.

[EaglesPhan36]

Thanks. Every once in a while, I get lucky and get one right!

[MexicanStallion]

You did more than that. I pretty much tailed all of your Wimbledon plays. I even took a shot with Haas the other day because of your input. You helped my bankroll. So thanks for the good work. Best of luck tomorrow

[yisman]

I think Roddick will be upset in the next three rounds.

I haven't looked at the matchups yet, but I will likely be fading him.


Murray not looking good.

7-5 5-6 against Kendrick

If Robbie Kendrick is battling you to a standstill, you won't be advancing deep into the tournament.

Whoops.

Won't be good enough to pass me when all is said and done.

I kicked your ass, Lou. You never came close to passing me.

[yisman]

11th game of first set was ridiculous.

Three times Federer missed long by less than an inch. Three challenges, all lost. Finally after like four deuces, Roddick won.

Roddick is at the absolute pinnacle of his game.

[cuteboy86hi]

wohooooooooo
put my entire bankroll on fed not 3-0

[necro]

some bimbo asked if it's safe to put 25000$ on Roger. Now he can see why it's not

[yisman]

This is going to five sets.

[yisman]

Wimbledon record for games in a fifth set.

[EaglesPhan36]

I made out all right in the final. I put a unit on Federer 3-1 & 3-2, cashing +575 on the 5 setter. That off-set the unit future on Roddick and the unit laid on the 3-1 result for +375 altogether for the match. Felt much better about that then sweating -800 on Fed! Think I probably broke about even for the tournament. Hoping to get my wireless internet service set up soon, so I can be back on the site here more often. Sitting at Starbucks right now, wasting money on a drink and their Internet connection. Gonna have to bet more to support this habit if I don't get my internet connected soon!