Benny looking to serve out the fourth. Expells a big French roar with the break.
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Comment -
Every del potato bet is ducked. 01/19/2018
10:07 PM
J DEL POTRO -175 (T BERDYCH VRS J DEL POTRO)
204.00
116.57
Risk: 204.00 - Win: 116.57
MU - [8228] J del Potro -175 (T Berdych vrs J del Potro)
Game start 01/19/2018 11:00 PM
Ticket #349524277Comment -
Lol Benny gets the break, all tied.Comment -
2.61 for Berdych now, insanely juicy for the Berdych backers.Comment -
Thanks brotha, your curse has been noticeable. I feel for you. I drink with you, and in your honor. I tried to send you some betpoints, but you're cursed so I wasn't allowed. They're worthless to the both of us also, so it wasn't much of a gesture. Who are you unloading on for the main event tomorrow. Stipe or Francis? Don't wanna be on the same side as you. Peace and love! I'll root for DelPo, I'd rather see all you guys win your bets and ill even out some action for the books.Comment -
The funny thing was that Benneteau was doing it easy all service games in that set until the end. He will probably need two breaks to finish this one off with the way he has going, and the amount of break points he blew against Fognini that 4th set.
Comment -
My pleasure bro. Dilly dilly. May the gods bless you and hopefully go to Valhalla some day. Yes betpoints are worthless. I'm on nobody if del potato loses. I plan on losing it all on.de potato even if he loses first set betting live even more on him. I want to Lose all my moneyComment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Novak Djokovic vs Albert Ramos Vinolas
Set Handicap: Novak Djokovic -2.5 sets @ 1.793 on Pinnacle)
Stake: $450 to profit $356.85
Odds have gone up to make it better so I'm more then happy to make it a play at that price. Ignoring past form and previous matchup it's one that falls right into Djokovic's hands, especially being an evening game.Comment -
Crazy burial on Del Potro going on, had to walk the dog, and missed the first two sets, injured?Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R3
Roger Federer vs Richard Gasquet
Set Handicap: Roger Federer -2.5 sets @ 1.602 on Pinnacle)
Stake: $650 to profit $391Comment -
Handicap: Nicolas Kicker +6.5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle (-$200)
Moneyline: Nicolas Kicker @ 5.57 on Pinnacle (-$50)
Handicap: Hyeon Chung +4 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle - (+$95.20)
Moneyline: Hyeon Chung @ 2.70 on Pinnacle - (+$85)
Moneyline: Juan Martin Del Potro @ 1.80 on Pinnacle (-$350)
Moneyline: Julien Benneteau @ 2.86 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Set Handicap: Novak Djokovic -2.5 Sets @ 1.793 on Pinnacle - (+$356.85)
Set Handicap: Roger Federer -2.5 Sets @ 1.602 on Pinnacle - (+$391)
YTD: 44 - 56 - 4 (-$284.68)
Comment -
Great hits with the set spreads late. I wish I had jumped on. I actually lost a few hundred on Ramos +2.5 sets. Whoops. Missed Birdman match, but as I suspected, something was up. Those odds just didn't make sense for me. Seemed too fishy.
Anyway, bad night for me, ended up down. No shocker there.
Onto the next.
Djoker/Chung should be a neat match to watch. That would be cool to see Chung pull off the biggest win of his life. At a little over 3 to 1, looks like he is getting lots of respect from the books.
Berdy/Foggy, oddsmakers begging me to take some kind of action on Foggy, abandon my Martingale system. Then Birdman waxes him and I lose more $ thanks to FogSkull. Decisions, decisions.
Really wanted to PLAY tennis this weekend, getting some weather into the mid-40's. Would have to shovel a few inches of snow off of a court though to make it happen, and I failed to do that yesterday. It just seemed a tiny bit too crazy to do. SO, gonna try to get my girlfriends kid to shovel it for me this afternoon in exchange for rides to his girlfriends house. If it works like I think it will, I may be playing a winter match tomorrow on the one clean court in the area, next to a bunch of others covered with snow.Comment -
Yeah I blame myself for Del Potro probably should have read more into it, didn't look like he was physically right by all reports and carried it into the match. Funny thing is he probably will be similar odds in other slams, maybe not grass, and probably shorter on clay. Both Federer and Djokovic covered their lines respectively as well which if you go off the h2h seems to just be a never ending mismatch regardless of how well the other guy plays. Got fortunate they got the job done, might not be as lucky next time. Gasquet just looks like a beaten man walking out there.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Marin Cilic vs Pablo Carreno Busta
Total Games: Under 36 Games @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: $200 to profit $202
Think I have seen enough of Cilic to convince me he will make this a comfortable win over an inferior opponent. Busta has had two easy matches against one who retired and a player who hadn't played in several months and is a Challenger level player. Who beat Muller who has also had an easy run here in Australia so far. I don't really rate him on hardcourts either as in 2017 he has had two notable big runs in American at the US Open Semis and at the Indian Wells Semis. Outside of that he is a very mediorce 5-8 on hardcourts. Not exactly a glowing endorsement for a guy ranked 10th. He has since improved his record in Australia making it to the 3R in 2017 after 3 1R exits before that, but Cilic is the better player on hardcourts by some length of margins so we'll trust him to get the job done today.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Kyle Edmund vs Andreas Seppi
Moneyline: Andreas Seppi @ 3.25 on Pinnacle
Stake: $150 to profit $337.5
Hoping for a bit of better luck today with the dog. Edmund's had a good run, beating some guys. But that price makes me think people and the books give Seppi a shot. Playing level wise, I dont think honestly that Edmund is THAT much better then Seppi, but we've seen weirder things. There seems to be a big consensus that the 'over' is the best bet of this match that I do agree with to some extent for those less riskier but i'll take a stab at those odds and see how he goes. Edmund does not really 'wow' me with his style of play which is why his wins haven't been very easy but I am hoping for another long match which may suit the Italian Seppi here.Comment -
No plays for me yet tonight, hit CSN earlier on the lady side. I don't really recall you ever posting wagers on ladies. You're a wiser man than I.
Rooting for you on Seppi. May tail. And also rooting for a retirement for you on the Cilic match.Comment -
Yeah that was a disappointment, Once he dropped that tb I gave up. Happens. Maybe I underestimated Busta. He played above his level today. Not often it happens when a guy with a serve like his drops a 5-2 lead with set points to make it a tb.
Anyway the other reason why I'm disappointed was I was thinking this during the round of 3 matchups that if Cilic did face Nadal, i'd fancy him outright h2h in that matchup. Maybe...but his R4 match has me thinking twice...
The h2h mismatch doesn't bother me, on the faster surfaces Cilic has shown he can make it a closer game. I'm kind of hoping for an afternoon game with that said so that's one potential QF matchup I am looking at.
I'm hoping the books ignore the fact Nadal has played some mugs and give him a big line. Best case scenario +7.5, worst case +6. Hoping to get 5-1 or +400 for him on the ML. At the least.
As for the womens, yes my goal is to stick to Mens Singles 99% of the time. Think the only match I did last year was the womens final here in Australia and that was Venus +4.5. Which didn't really need an explanation. Any other matchup and likely it would have been an easy serena win. Anyway might do the same for that this year.Comment -
Going back to that Fognini matchup but I couldn't help see that Berdych was +200 for -2.5 sets. Maybe this is the spot where he throws in the towel? lol. I don't know if I can see Berdych covering if it does end up being 4 sets and the 38 is a bit too high for my liking considering I really don't feel it'll go 5 sets anyway he does have more advantages going his way having played here heaps of times and making it deep. He's probably played on the big 3 courts more often as well so he isn't as intimidated by the pressure. Will follow the odds for it too.Comment -
Not gonna lie, would have been salty to watch Seppi blow all those break points and then drop the set, now for the rest of the match
Comment -
Any late night plays tonight?Comment -
You may be on to something with Cilic vs. Rafa .... assuming butt-to-face toucher gets past Diego here, a set apiece now, I might also like a shot of Marin if the price is appealing.
Birdman vs. Skull, I am waiting for my book to give me any lines yet. I'm torn. Gotta find the strength deep inside myself to pass.
Let's go Seppi!Comment -
Was gonna post it later, but seeing as it was asked now, and i'll probably walk the dog later, ill post it now.
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Grigor Dimitrov vs Nick Kyrgios
Moneyline: Grigor Dimitrov @ 2.38 on Pinnacle
Stake: $250 to profit $345
Flipped odds unsurprisingly because of their previous matchup and form and the game being in Australia. But Dimitrov is seeded third and made the Semi Final last year here for a reason. As much as it would be cool to see Kyrgios win and shut the stupid media up, I think he has to wait his turn before making another big run. I have to account that despite the man handling he gave him in Brisbane for the best part of two and a bit sets. Can justify the price, and hope he gives it a good crack.
Again for the less brave, the 'over' could be a good bet if you think it could go five sets.Comment -
Berdych is being offered -5 which is about right, but I think if he can cover then he might as well win in 3?
And dang like you said Nadal playing more then 3 sets might influence the price. But hoping it's still a decent price for Cilic if it happens. Hits harder then Diego but might be an inferior mover.Comment -
Thanks for the grigor pick!Comment -
Definately the right side that time, thank goodness. The over suggestion hit as well, comfortably...eventually
Moneyline: Andreas Seppi @ 3.25 on Pinnacle (-$150)
Total Score: Under 36 games @ 2.01 on Pinnacle (-$200)
Moneyline: Grigor Dimitrov @ 2.38 on Pinnacle - (+$345)
YTD: 45 - 57 - 4 (-$289.68)
Small loss but can't complain with how I've gone this first week, back up to nearly $1k+ for those following since the AOComment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Tomas Berdych vs Fabio Fognini
Set Handicap: Tomas Berdych -2.5 Sets @ 3.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: $250 to profit $500
As discussed the other day Berdych has been in this situation most years and looks good to make a QF run here with a rare opportunity to capitalise with all the upsets so far. He has some of his better results in Australia and he's the first guy Fognini has played who prefers Hardcourts over every other surface. I'm looking to take the juicier odds with the set handicap as the line looks like a likely cover by Berdych if he wins in three sets so why not take it? Fognini does have a habit of phoning it in at times so it'll be interesting to see how he comes out of this one but Berdych looks, and plays motivated and I'm looking at him to continue that today.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R16
Roger Federer vs Marton Fucsovics
Total Score: Under 28.5 Games @ 2.03 on Pinnacle
Stake: $250 to profit $257.5
Tough to always back long lines and short totals when it's this deep because both players are used to things and there is a lot more data out there in regards to form. But a lot of players play their tournaments early only to fall short to one of the bigger guns. I think (despite making the mistake last year) the run ends for Fusovics like it did when Mischa Zverev upset Murray in 4 sets only to be flat against Federer. This time around Fusovics hasn't exactly had a tough draw and Federer is playing at a level a mile above any level his opponents are and it will probably be a rude awakening for the kid. Two factors that do work in his favour are having never played against each other (but that usually doesnt fase Federer) and Federer playing his first day match. Which may mean Federer will just try and finish things sooner, heh.Comment -
Agree. Not having faced each other doesn't work against Federer in a grand slam.Comment -
Great hit on Birdman!Comment -
Cheers man. Hope the lesser brave took the line, but like you said fade Fognini against the half decent and he will probably flop. If he hadn't done it against a short priced favourite already haha. Just the thought of him making it to the QF of a HC slam makes me ill!Comment
sounds like a party to me. Let's make it happen. If del Porto loses I want ngannou to punch me in the face. That's how I want to sacrifice myself to the gods