-
Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Rafael Nadal vs Victor Estrella Burgos
Handicap: Rafael Nadal -11 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle
Stake: 100 to profit $89.20
This will more likely then not be a one sided affair and not really much of a contest for Nadal on his first official match for season 2018. Estrella Burgos has already offered up little resistance on his first match on hardcourts, a surface which he is not great on, a 2-6 0-6 loss to Gasquet. Despite everything that is said in the media about Nadal's injury concerns pulling out of Abu Dhabi and Brisbane the line is set that big for a reason. Nadal will want to make quick work of an opponent he should beat very easily and not really a physical matchup for him to focus on his next matches.Comment -
Jumped on -12.5 in-running. Good win for Rafael!Comment -
Yeah I wish I could get a better line/odds, a 37 yo challenger player whos not good on hardcourts and is a clay guy aint putting up much resistance against Rafa. Considering he's likely there for the paychequeComment -
Total Games: Over 37 Games @ 1.925 on Pinnacle - (+$92.50)
Handicap: Alex Bolt +6 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle - (+$0)
Moneyline: David Ferrer @ 1.952 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Moneyline: Mackenzie McDonald @ 2.00 on Pinnacle - (+$100)
Handicap: Rafael Nadal -11.5 @ 1.892 on Pinnacle - (+$89.20)
YTD: 29 - 41 - 3 (-$1020.93)
Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Thanisi Kokkinakis vs Dannii Medvedev
Handicap: Thanisi Kokkinakis -2 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle
Stake: 100 to profit $100
It was a good day for the Australians yesterday with John Millman, Nick Kyrgios, and Matt Ebden scoring some good wins while Alex Bolt came close after dropping a 2 sets to love lead. I think that trend continues today with Kokkinakis playing a high level of tennis against some quality players in Perth, such as Zverev and Goffin. While Medvedev is high off his first title win in Sydney, I did not really rate his final win that highly, most notably due to the fact that De Minaur really should have won it and I felt it was really on his racquet. Playing in just his 5th slam (one win from four slam matches), and his second australian open against a guy who has played Davis Cup and slams both in 5 set format, I have to go with Kokkinakis.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Evgeny Donskoy vs Florian Mayer
Handicap: Evgeny Donskoy -3 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 100 to profit $90.90
Think the odds are too close for this matchup despite both being average players at slams over 5 sets. But with that said I think Mayer has been too poor to even consider, on hardcourt let alone in general. Mayers tour form has been awful winning just one match in recent times, and that was at the 1R of the US Open. He's been playing challengers and his slam form over the recent years is very average as well, 2 wins in 10 attempts. He is known to be questionable in fitness over 5 sets so we'll see how that pans out today...Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Ricardis Berankis vs Stan Wawrinka
Handicap: Stan Wawrinka -3 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 100 to profit $95.20
There are obviously question marks on Stan's fitness and form in relation to how quickly he can raise his level but like Nadal he's drawn a guy who is not good on the outside hardcourts at all, and a guy who is a perfect tune up first up match for him. In some cases against some opponents I find it is too hard to call but in this instance, and despite the fact I love to fade Stan early rounds (even more so when its a big line) I'm gonna go the opposite. I'll accept that there is a chance he could struggle a bit and drop a set but I also think level wise if Stan does play the level he is capable of then this is a routine simple win for him.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Soon Woo Kwon vs Jan Lennard Struff
Handicap: Soon Woo Kwon +5.5 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle - Stake: 100 to profit $104
Moneyline: Soon Woo Kwon @ 4.58 on Pinnacle - Stake: $50 to profit $179
Interesting favouritism for Struff considering this is Kwon's first Tour Level match makes me think there are people out there who give the 20 year old youngster a shot on this outdoor hard court surface. He has plenty of ability and he's made some noise on the Challenger circuit going 25-11 on outside hardcourts. Struff, who prefers the indoors hardcourt meanwhile has had a less then spectacular start to the season despite beating Berdych in Doha. He's never made it past the first round of the Aus Open, and he hasn't made it past the first round of a slam in his last 10 attempts (2R at the 2015 US Open was the last time he did it), with all that information and Kwon's potential, it's worth taking a stab at the youngster at those odds.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Nicolas Kicker vs Jordan Thompson
Handicap: Nicolas Kicker +7 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle
Stake: 100 to profit $90.90
I've watched Jordan Thompson's matches this year and I'm not sure what is wrong with him. All I know is that he should not be given such a big line for a best of five sets match considering how inconsistent he has been. It is always interesting to see how a clay guy handles hard courts considering how bad he is on them, but he also does not lose his matches very easily. This is more of a fade on Thompson then a serious amount of confidence in kicker, but I think to give many players that much of a head start against Thompson is a rough call and I think he can make it closer then the line indicates knowing full well Thompson winning this in 3 sets is no certainty.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Lorenzo Sonego vs Robin Haase
Handicap: Lorenzo Sonego +5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle - Stake: 100 to profit $86.20
Moneyline: Lorenzo Sonego @ 3.52 on Pinnacle - Stake: $50 to profit $126
Another one where a guy who normally should be favourite isn't, yet again a sure thing winner. Lorenzo Sonego played three games of qualifying beating Bernard Tomic in his final match. Again, playing a 30yo guy whos been on the tour for a while would make you think Haase should be shorter but he isn't. He hasn't won an Australian Open match since 2013, the year he got injured beating Roddick but despite some decent form in Chennai and Auckland it's a lot of travelling and his form over 5 sets could be put into question. It'll be interesting to see how he handles it.Comment -
Interesting line of thinking on Sonego and Kwon... good start for the former!Comment -
Yeah it's a great situation when your player looks pretty safe with the handicap after 2-3 sets of tennis. Haase's body just doesn't seem to be able to handle 5 set tennis especially on hardcourts. Sometimes I guess it just depends on the player you are backing or backing against on that day as well. I think it's just about going for those players who should never be a safe bet or who are bad on that surface/tournament and being confident in the other guy.Comment -
The other problem is that it is easy to get carried away throwing darts (sometimes) and sometimes I'm also guilty of being overconfident in it, and then you end up digging yourself in a hole (like I did lol
).
That said if you are good enough, in the long run you'll be up reasonably comfortably even if you are not to fazed with a likely losing record on it (with dogs). Sometimes they'll get up, and itll suck when youre not on it, but more likely it'll also lose.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Tim Smyczek vs Alexei Popyrin
Total Score: Over 35.5 Games @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: 100 to profit $95.20
This one caught my attention based off how matches have been going, with firstly American players having some awful luck here bowing out already early in the first round, most notably John Isner, Jack Sock and Coco Vandewegh, however it's worth noting that at times when they play an Australian, like Isner did it should not be a big surprise and the bookies know this with the lines they set. Ebden carried some form into Brisbane with him and beat Tiafoe (who is going to end up the better player) and did the same thing to Isner here. Smyczek is an inferior player to Isner and while Popyrin is less experience then Ebden, he was a pretty successful junior player here making the Semi Finals of the Australian Open in both singles and doubles. And then he backed it up by winning the French Open Junior boys title. So he will have no issues with the conditions here.
Smyczek is not as poor as some of the other players I've faded here in the Australian Open and he has managed to navigate his way past the 1R here the last few years (and lost an epic 5 setter to Nadal a few years back) but he is neither a threat nor a guy we can feel confident in to win this comfortably, so i'll back Popyrin's game, and size to make this a competitive game, even if he does not win.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Horacio Zeballos vs Fabio Fognini
Handicap: Horacio Zeballos +5.5 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle - Stake: 100 to profit $100
Moneyline: Horacio Zeballos @ 4.65 on Pinnacle - Stake: $50 to profit $182.50
Fognini has managed to pull out some interesting wins out of his a r s e in the Australian Summer, however in a slam in the best of five sets against a guy who's never made it past the first round of the Australian Open? At 1.25? Seems like a perfect spot to fade this guy who at times in his opening set tiebreak against Mannarino didn't look like he gave a crap missing some awful down the line shots. Out of the 10 years he has played in the Australian Open he has made it past the first round three times beating Andrey Golubev and Feliciano Lopez, as well as Alexander Bogomolov Jr one of the most corrupt players in the 21st century to no ones surprise, retired in that match. He has no business losing this match and like his mate Benoit Paire, sometimes finds ways to lose them. And on paper Zeballos, a clay guy shouldn't really win this match. But weirder things have happened. Looking for an entertaining match.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Roger Federer vs Aljaz Bedene
Total Score: Under 29 Games @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $101
Can't see Federer getting off to a slow start coming back as the defending champion here for the first time since 2011. He is playing an opponent who isn't really a good matchup for him stroke wise and who has not made it past the 1R of the Australian Open in 5 attempts and who has not made it out of the 1R on a hard court slam surface in 9 attempts. Looking for Federer to get out of this one early and play smart to conserve himself for the later rounds.Comment -
Total Games: Nicolas Kicker +7 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle - (+$90.90)
Total Games: Lorenzo Sonego +5 @ 1.862 on Pinnacle - (+$86.20)
Moneyline: Lorenzo Sonego @ 3.52 on Pinnacle - (+$126)
Handicap: Evgeny Donskoy -3 @ 1.909 on Pinnacle - (+$90.90)
Handicap: Stan Wawrinka -3 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Moneyline: Soon Woo Kwon @ 4.58 on Pinnacle (-$50)
Handicap: Soon Woo Kwon +5.5 @ 2.04 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Total Games: Over 35.5 Games @ 1.952 on Pinnacle - (+$95.20)
Handicap: Horacio Zeballis +5.5 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Moneyline: Horacio Zeballos @ 4.65 on Pinnacle (-$50)
Handicap: Thanisi Kokkinakis -2 @ 2.00 on Pinnacle (-$100)
Total Games: Under 29 Games @ 2.01 on Pinnacle - (+$101)
Handicap: Tomas Berdych -5 @ 1.99 on Pinnacle - (+$99)
YTD: 35 - 47 - 3 (-$831.73)Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Yoshihito Nishioika vs Andreas Seppi
Total Score: Over 37 Games @ 1.943 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $94.30
Whilst I think Nishioika's price is a bit generous I do take into account his injury from last year. With that said Seppi is a veteran who came back from 0-2 in this spot last year against Nick Kyrgios and the guy doesn't mind getting into a 5 set match if it calls for it. I really don't think this will be a three set match and i'll take the over knowing this one may go the distance with neither player consistent enough to win in straight sets, and both capable of winning a set.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Malek Jaziri vs Gilles Muller
Total Score: Over 35 Games @ 2.01 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $101
Gilles Muller's odds are way too short in this match up despite everything that has been said in the media abotu Jaziri's injury issues and fitness. Like the above matchup I feel this is one that can go for more then three sets with the capability of a tiebreak in between. Muller is definately not consistent enough nor has he been as good this summer to win this in three sets and I think the above tease total is because of that.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R1
Nikoloz Bashivasili vs Ruben Belemans
Handicap: Nikoloz Bashivasili -1.5 @ 1.925 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $92.50Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Pablo Cuevas vs Ryan Harrison
Handicap: Pablo Cuevas +3 @ 1.952 on Pinnacle
Stake: $100 to profit $95.20Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Denis Shapovalov vs Jo Wilfried Tsonga
Moneyline: Jo Wilfried Tsonga @ 1.609 on Pinnacle
Stake: $300 to profit $182.70Comment -
Tsonga is playing like sh1t...what the hell he is doing there
Comment -
Yeah I wasn't too impressed with Shapovalov's form before the Australian Open, lost and struggled aganst Edmund, a match he should have won and a player he is far more talented then, and then offers little resistance to Del Potro in Auckland. Probably playing a lefty and not having the rhythm in his serve has him a bit rattled but he needs to do the opposite and not let Shapovalov play the way he wants and get into rhythm. Sure for Denis was in good form going into the US Open, but he wasnt coming in here. Hoping Tsonga takes control of things sooner and drags it out. Youngsters fitness could come into question.Comment -
He is enjoying having a field day hitting it to Tsonga's backhand because he knows he is more defensive from it. That said if he keeps serving junk he will keep having chances, and on a hot day as the match goes on hopefully he will actually take advantage of it.Comment -
Australian Open 2000, Mens Singles, R2
Rafael Nadal vs Leonardo Mayer
Total Score: Under 28 Games @ 1.952 on Pinnacle - Stake: $100 to profit $95.20
1st Set Total Games: Under 8.5 Games @ 3.09 on Sportsbet - Stake: $50 to profit $104.50
Like his first opponent I believe Leonardo Mayer will also offer up little resistance to Rafael Nadal. In 7 attempts he has made it past the 1R twice, and never made it past the 2R and while he did take a set off him at the US Open this matchup is still far more favourable to Nadal based off his 4-0 head to head results. Looking for Nadal again to continue off his first round match and make quick work of this matchup.Comment -
Tsonga has regrouped and he's playing his real tennis again after having a suck 1st set...1-1 in set now...Comment -
Tsonga was daydreaming in 3rd set again , damn...lol...lost 1-6 3rd set
hopefully he can still come back in 4th, and I will cash out the bet i think...
Comment -
Tsonga took the tie break, final set ahead...hopefully momentum will swing to Tsonga now
Comment -
Sorry to disappoint your frustrations but I love nothing more then watching a five set match
regardless of who or what I have money on. Bring on the 5th set!
Comment -
wao...Shapovalov couldn't serve out the match at 5-3... 5-5 all now...any more drama
Comment -
He was up 5-2 in the 5th, unrealComment -
ridiculous enough...Shapovalov led 5-2 up and then lost 5 games in a row to lose the match lol
Comment
