Women's semis seem straight forward. Safina has been outstanding and should prove too much for the youngster Cibulkova on the big stage on a surface she has dominated in 2009. The other semi, I think Kuznetsova is the better clay court player ... but fatigue could be a factor. Remember, Kuznetsova and Serena played AFTER Stosur & Cirstea. Stosur was on court half the time that Kuznetsova was and this is the first back-2-back situation for these players in two weeks.
I don't see any value in playing the big favorites at those prices - at least that is my tennis strategy at all times - and in looking at parlaying them, the odds end up being .5:1 on a payout for Safina/Kuznetsova which is also not very good IMO. I can see the value in taking Stosur at +270 or +280 whatever you're getting right now. Think if you want Kuznetsova, I'd take her in 3 sets. Unless Stosur absolutely shows up and lays an egg, couple in the fatigue, I think Stosur takes a set at worst and if Kuznetsova's yips show up at the wrong time, she could get beat. Key for Stosur is maintaining what has been a superb first serve at RG and amping up her 2nd serve. In looking at the two 3 setters she played here, when she lost it was because her serve lost it's pop and her opponent jumped on it. Think you'll be able to gauge her progress pretty simply for the match. If Stosur is winning close to 70% on her 1st serve and at least 50% on her 2nd, she'll be in it to win it. She'll have to do that since Kuznetsova has consistently been winning 65-ish on her 1st and 50+ on her 2nd in this tournament. Should be the more intriguing of the two matches for me at least.
I don't see any value in playing the big favorites at those prices - at least that is my tennis strategy at all times - and in looking at parlaying them, the odds end up being .5:1 on a payout for Safina/Kuznetsova which is also not very good IMO. I can see the value in taking Stosur at +270 or +280 whatever you're getting right now. Think if you want Kuznetsova, I'd take her in 3 sets. Unless Stosur absolutely shows up and lays an egg, couple in the fatigue, I think Stosur takes a set at worst and if Kuznetsova's yips show up at the wrong time, she could get beat. Key for Stosur is maintaining what has been a superb first serve at RG and amping up her 2nd serve. In looking at the two 3 setters she played here, when she lost it was because her serve lost it's pop and her opponent jumped on it. Think you'll be able to gauge her progress pretty simply for the match. If Stosur is winning close to 70% on her 1st serve and at least 50% on her 2nd, she'll be in it to win it. She'll have to do that since Kuznetsova has consistently been winning 65-ish on her 1st and 50+ on her 2nd in this tournament. Should be the more intriguing of the two matches for me at least.
