yisman's ATP/WTA picks thread

[yisman]

adding some later ATP:

Massu over Wawrinka +700, risk 1 unit
Gabashvili over Nadal +9900, risk .3 units
Junquiera over Davydenko +1750, risk 1 unit
Golubev over Hewitt +470, risk 1 unit

[BobHarvey]

I'm curious why Venus Williams has a relatively small chalk -300 for her match against Lucie Safarova?

[Netprofit]

Williams have dominated women tennis for many years now. even though as black women and very talented they last longer compared to the men side and compared to other champions like henin, i expect their tennis life span very near the end now.

both Williams should start losing in Grand Slam this year at the earlier rounds and definitely next year, and Roland Garros should be top of the list of 4 in this aspect, books' odds are reflecting this expectation. for handicappers (i am one) who shares this expectation the line against them still represents value.

[yisman]

Safarova already took the first set, 7-6.

[game2win2009]

Cool, 10x

[yisman]

May 28 ATP and WTA

ATP

Vassallo Arguello +194, risk 5 units
Gonzalez +250, risk 1 unit
Acasuso +5900, risk 1 unit
Melzer -435, risk 8.7 units
Tsonga +130, risk 10 units

WTA

Garbin +320, risk 2 units
Groth +128, risk 1 unit
Bammer +100, risk 5 units
Wozniak -204, risk 6.12 units
Rybarikova +2500, risk 1 unit
Medina Garrigues -139, risk 5 units
Dokic +420, risk 4 units


my unit sizes are messed up because I ran out of time.

[yisman]

add one ATP pick:

Kohlschreiber -131.5 over Ferrero, risk 4 units

[Netprofit]

Williams have dominated women tennis for many years now. even though as black women and very talented they last longer compared to the men side and compared to other champions like henin, i expect their tennis life span very near the end now.

both Williams should start losing in Grand Slam this year at the earlier rounds and definitely next year, and Roland Garros should be top of the list of 4 in this aspect, books' odds are reflecting this expectation. for handicappers (i am one) who shares this expectation the line against them still represents value.

Venus survived a match point and will now beat Safarova

[yisman]

I have to say, Acasuso did a lot better than expected, but still lost.

6-7, 7-5, 6-7, 2-6.

That's close.

Vassallo-Arguello also was close to pulling off the upset. 6-1, 5-7, 7-5, 3-6, 4-6.

["Sic"]

Surprised your not playing Wickmayer...Something keep you off of it?

[yisman]

I was close to playing Wickmayer, but I've been staying away from borderline cases so as not to make too many picks and I didn't have a huge edge on that line.

Most of the others I had a significant edge on.

Wickmayer was the last cut, IIRC.

["Sic"]

well G call shes getting whiped all over....Nothing like an 0fer day

[yisman]

ATP

Schuettler over Gicquel +270, risk 4 units: -4
Ljubcic over Ferrero -130, risk 3 units: -3
Tursunov over Clement +168, risk 10 units: -10
Baghdatis over Monaco +410, risk 2 units: -2
Benneteau over Tsonga +196, risk 5 units: -5
Santoro over Rochus -125, risk 3 units: -3
Korolev over Gimeno-Traver -161, risk 2 units: retired

0-6, -27

WTA

Rybarikova over Mladenovic -192, risk 12 units: +6.25
Bammer over Dechy -116, risk 6 units: +5.17
Santangelo over Martic +164, risk 7 units: -7
U.Radwanska over Wickmayer +285, risk 2 units: -2
Dokic over Sprem +136, risk 1.5 units: +2.04
Peng over Martinez Sanchez +162, risk 3 units: -3

add:

Tursunov +188, risk 3 units: -3

May 26: 3-9, -28.54

&^%#^$#ing Tursunov. He should've had that. Stupid interruption. Get some @&%#^#ing lights.

ATP

Gulbis +136 over Almagro, risk 2 units: -2
Lopez over Tipsa +148, risk 7 units: -7
Hanescu over Youzhny +240, risk 8 units: +19.2
Petzschner over Verdasco +3700, risk 1.5 units: -1.5
Kendrick over Simon +620, risk 1 unit: -1
Sela over Cilic +800, risk 2 units: -2
Kiefer over Ferrer +700, risk 5 units: -5

WTA

Barrois over Azarenka, +2000, risk 2 units: -2
Tanasugarn over Ivanovic +1200, risk 2 units: -2
Sharapova over Petrova +138, risk 2 units: +2.76

2-8, -.54

Kiefer took Ferrer to 5 sets at +700. I'm proud of that pick.

adding some later ATP:

Massu over Wawrinka +700, risk 1 unit: -1
Gabashvili over Nadal +9900, risk .3 units: -.3
Junquiera over Davydenko +1750, risk 1 unit: -1
Golubev over Hewitt +470, risk 1 unit: -1

0-4, -3.3

May 27: 2-12, -3.84

ATP

Vassallo Arguello +194, risk 5 units
Gonzalez +250, risk 1 unit
Acasuso +5900, risk 1 unit
Melzer -435, risk 8.7 units
Tsonga +130, risk 10 units

WTA

Garbin +320, risk 2 units
Groth +128, risk 1 unit
Bammer +100, risk 5 units
Wozniak -204, risk 6.12 units
Rybarikova +2500, risk 1 unit
Medina Garrigues -139, risk 5 units
Dokic +420, risk 4 units

Kohlschreiber -131.5 over Ferrero, risk 4 units

basically, I gave back what I won, thanks to Tursunov and Lopez.

If Kiefer wins, I'm up big. +35 units right there.

[yisman]

leaving for next few days

Friday

Simon -200, risk 6 units


Cibulkova -173, risk 5 units
Govortsova +500, risk 2 units

[yisman]

May 31 ATP and WTA

ATP

Cilic over Murray +240, risk .5 units
Hanescu over Gonzalez +540, risk 2 units
Soderling over Nadal +3900, risk 1 unit
Davydenko over Verdasco +176, risk 4 units

WTA

Azarenka over Ivanovic +142, risk 1 unit
Cibulkova over Szavay +148, risk 2.5 units
Sharapova over Li -111, risk 2.22 units

[yisman]

ok, finished

[fearless]

ATP

Cilic over Murray +240, risk .5 units
Hanescu over Gonzalez +540, risk 2 units
Soderling over Nadal +3900, risk 1 unit
Davydenko over Verdasco +176, risk 4 units

WTA

Azarenka over Ivanovic +142, risk 2 units
Cibulkova over Szavay +148, risk 2.5 units
Sharapova over Li -111, risk 2 units

You asked me why I'm not taking Sharapova straight up and the reason is because she's just been good enough to win her last two matches. She just squeaked by against Petrova and she was two points away from her match with Shvedova being 5-5 in the third set.

Sharapova is 5-1 this year but she's only beaten one player in straight sets this year and that was some unranked player. Li meanwhile has only lost in straight sets three times this whole year and she hasn't lost a set at the French Open. I'm taking Li +1.5 because I can't see Sharapova dominating any good player right now.

I think if Sharapova wins she'll just squeak by just like she did against Petrova and Shvedova. Sharapova's not really on her game and she's gutting it out on heart, imho.

I've almost talked myself into taking Li ML.

[yisman]

Soderling beating up on Nadal is a beautiful thing. Too bad my Internet is slow as molasses right now.

[cuteboy86hi]

ATP

Cilic over Murray +240, risk .5 units
Hanescu over Gonzalez +540, risk 2 units
Soderling over Nadal +3900, risk 1 unit
Davydenko over Verdasco +176, risk 4 units

WTA

Azarenka over Ivanovic +142, risk 1 unit
Cibulkova over Szavay +148, risk 2.5 units
Sharapova over Li -111, risk 2.22 units

[cuteboy86hi]

You haven't been posting your picks.I was tailing you then u stopped for 2-3 days and disaster.Yesterday that party boy lost and today this.

[yisman]

I missed a few days. Sorry about that. I was away for Friday and Saturday.

[Karayilan9]

Can't believe nobody has congratulated you yet, that Soderling pick was one of the most profitable winners I've seen posted on this forum, I tailed with small change for one of those "just in case it happens I don't wanna miss out" type plays after seeing Djokovich loose yesterday.
Also great pick with Davydenko not many picked him today

[yisman]

That was pretty sweet, I have to admit.

I stuck with it and it paid off in a big way.

[yisman]

ATP

Vassallo Arguello +194, risk 5 units: -5
Gonzalez +250, risk 1 unit: +2.5
Acasuso +5900, risk 1 unit: -1
Melzer -435, risk 8.7 units: +2
Tsonga +130, risk 10 units: +13

WTA

Garbin +320, risk 2 units: +6.4
Groth +128, risk 1 unit: +1.28
Bammer +100, risk 5 units: -5
Wozniak -204, risk 6.12 units: +3
Rybarikova +2500, risk 1 unit: -1
Medina Garrigues -139, risk 5 units: -5
Dokic +420, risk 4 units: retired


Kohlschreiber -131.5 over Ferrero, risk 4 units: +3.04


May 28: 7-5, +14.22

[yisman]

leaving for next few days

friday

simon -200, risk 6 units: -6

cibulkova -173, risk 5 units: +2.89
govortsova +500, risk 2 units: -2

5/29: 1-2, -5.11

atp

cilic over murray +240, risk .5 units: -.5
hanescu over gonzalez +540, risk 2 units: -2
soderling over nadal +3900, risk 1 unit: +39
davydenko over verdasco +176, risk 4 units: +7.04

wta

azarenka over ivanovic +142, risk 1 unit: +1.42
cibulkova over szavay +148, risk 2.5 units: +3.7
sharapova over li -111, risk 2.22 units: +2

5/31: 5-2, +46.16



overall after 26 days: 95-128, +73.16

[yisman]

June 1 ATP and WTA

ATP

Robredo over Kohlschreiber -107.5, risk 4 units
Tsonga over Del Potro +190, risk 3 units
Monfils over Roddick -128, risk 3.9 units

WTA

Cirstea over Jankovic +540, risk 1.5 units
Radwanska over Kuznetsova +310, risk 2 units

[Irish Jet]

Congrats on the Nadal pick Yisman. That was ****ing awesome.

[yisman]

thanks.

anyway, I completed my picks for June 1.

[yisman]

June 2 ATP and WTA

not very confident about anything today. Small plays on two.


ATP

Soderling over Davydenko +194, risk 1 unit

WTA

Cibulkova over Sharapova +128, risk 1.5 units

[SportsTerminator]

Congrats on the Nadal pick Yisman. That was ****ing awesome.

The monyline was like what Nadal -10,000... ouch lol.

[yisman]

something like -8000, I think, on Bodog.

Anyway, I added odds and unit sizes. The real betting was in the earlier rounds. The value from here on out is limited.

[yisman]

June 3 ATP and WTA

ATP

Robredo over Del Potro +410, risk 2 units

WTA

Cirstea over Stosur +146, risk 4 units

[Karayilan9]

I like Cirstea but why Robredo?

[yisman]

Cirstea did not play well.

I dunno, I see value in Robredo at that line. I think he's capable of pulling off the upset. The market is undervaluing him.

[yisman]

June 4 WTA

Cibulkova over Safina +510, risk 1 unit
Stosur over Kuznetsova +295, risk .5 units

Just taking shots now. No value on the favorites.