Kenz's Tennis

**kenz** · 03-12-14, 10:16 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

"put things in perspective" department

had to have a down day sooner or later...15 up-days in a row is (now, "was") clearly unsustainable...

now that it's happened, and you've given bak about 1k of the 10k u'd accumulated over this thread...what should you change, Kenz?

absolutely nothing, bro...keep doing what u'r doing...
____________________

and anybody who got bit hard on the ass by a combination of "Murphy's Law" & "bet-size insanity", please continue to exhibit class...

Kenz will continue to post his well-researched plays...and we'll pick up where we left off before euphoria and greed took a painful chunk out of some of our bank rolls...and when we pick up we'll be a hell of a lot smarter

__________________

so no pissin' n' moanin' ok...today taught us a lesson and tomoro's a new day...

Good write-up once again fitguy

Still I dont feel remotely ok about people decided to tail me recently or just today. 100% fit Stan would not have trouble beating Big Kev, but from comments I see he suffered a back injury during the game. Sirtysree tells otherwise, so maybe that was not the case, he may be just outclassed.

Back to the drawing board. It was a tough loss

**matt1216** · 03-12-14, 10:17 PM

Originally posted by SirtySree

Wawrinka after losing the 1st set went in to get his back checked. Personally, don't think it actually affected him much but rather that Anderson just was better on the day. Anderson's ground strokes have increased considerably this year and he destroyed Wawrinka in rallies. Anderson's serve was slightly off hence him getting broken quite a few times so quite impressive he still won when his impossibly biggest weapon was only average on the day.

Anderson has been damn good, I will admit. Kinda suprised me. I figured he would be tired by now. Blood doping maybe? Lol

**SirtySree** · 03-12-14, 10:27 PM

What you think bout Raonic @1.9 against Dolgopolov? I initially thought it was darn good value but wanted to hear your thoughts first.

**kenz** · 03-12-14, 10:28 PM

Originally posted by SirtySree

Wawrinka after losing the 1st set went in to get his back checked. Personally, don't think it actually affected him much but rather that Anderson just was better on the day. Anderson's ground strokes have increased considerably this year and he destroyed Wawrinka in rallies. Anderson's serve was slightly off hence him getting broken quite a few times so quite impressive he still won when his supposedly biggest weapon was only average on the day.

He might be outclassed in rallies then.

I just checked the 3rd set point by point which is the real eye-catcher score wise. I dont know how Wawrinka loses it in less than half an hour winning only one point in 3 games where Anderson served. How does this happen when Wawrinka is healthy and focused, I dont know. He must be somewhat not interested then

Originally posted by matt1216

Kenz, I believe we should all forget about this guy until he does something substantial again. He's actually been ok (for top 10 standards) the last 6 months or so. Not great. He won the Aussie open and Chenai 250, but both those courts were very fast paced. I fell for this clown too. Good luck tomorrow bud!

Thanks matt,

I cant overlook what happened for a really long time. I wont back him for sure, fading him or better just skipping will be the better move. Tough pill to swallow

**kenz** · 03-12-14, 10:41 PM

Originally posted by SirtySree

What you think bout Raonic @1.9 against Dolgopolov? I initially thought it was darn good value but wanted to hear your thoughts first.

I am not sure SirtySree. I think if Dolgo is on as he is lately, Raonic may struggle in rallies. Dolgo is offensive playing, not like Murray who waits his opponent to make a mistake lately, quite opposite of Raonic who does not forgive when he finds the opportunity (with his Forehand power) or Dolgo with his unorthodox always-offence minded shots. However as I said about Raonic before Murray game, Raonic is somewhat underrated in groundstrokes in outdoor hard.

After Stan I need to think every angle with today's games and probably wont go heavy. I will decide the play(or skip it) close to gametime.

BOL man

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 12:03 AM

Will probably lose these but will give it a try

$75 on Djokovic 2-1 @4.50 @Marathonbet
$50 on Cilic ML @8.30 @Marathonbet

Ridiculuous price on Marathonbet could not pass it. Too much value

**poet** · 03-13-14, 12:06 AM

Kenz, I respect you very much but after watching 20 years of tennis it was obvious that Stan, after losing the first set, decided that he wanted out of there. Come on, how do you people explain the fact that when the crowd started to cheer for him he suddenly started to feel better and play like himself? Even the announcers commented on how strange it was for god's sake. This is exactly what I'm talking about when I say, you can't go big on these guys (big favorites) in these non majors. They just don't give a damn. It's like playing russian roulette!

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 12:09 AM

Originally posted by poet

Kenz, I respect you very much but after watching 20 years of tennis it was obvious that Stan, after losing the first set, decided that he wanted out of there. Come on, how do you people explain the fact that when the crowd started to cheer for him he suddenly started to feel better and play like himself? Even the announcers commented on how strange it was for god's sake. This is exactly what I'm talking about when I say, you can't go big on these guys (big favorites) in these non majors. They just don't give a damn. It's like playing russian roulette!

Did not watch the game but the guy losing the deciding set in less than half an hour, broken 3 times, won one return point in 3 Anderson serve games pretty much says Wawrinka did not give a fvcuk. Wont bet on him for a long time.

**brodie** · 03-13-14, 12:20 AM

Originally posted by poet

Kenz, I respect you very much but after watching 20 years of tennis it was obvious that Stan, after losing the first set, decided that he wanted out of there. Come on, how do you people explain the fact that when the crowd started to cheer for him he suddenly started to feel better and play like himself? Even the announcers commented on how strange it was for god's sake. This is exactly what I'm talking about when I say, you can't go big on these guys (big favorites) in these non majors. They just don't give a damn. It's like playing russian roulette!

i stopped watching after he got broken in the 2nd set but he looked kind of hurt when i was watching, back injury or something i thought?

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 12:21 AM

The guy is doing good in doubles at the moment.They will serve for the set

**Robin Van Rogan** · 03-13-14, 12:23 AM

Wawrinka losing ripped me a new one.

It ruined all my plays, had him in 5 parlays, everything hit but him, a 1.20 favorite...

I'll probably have to reload my accounts, but it'll make me smarter in the long run.

It made me sick to my stomach, I read so much about this match and didn't see anybody picking Anderson, it was a lock as far as I'm concerned.

Luckily I don't have the biggest BR in the world, but percentage wise, it was devastating.

Gonna try to recoup some in the upcoming UFC, if I botch there too I'm gonna take a break.

**poet** · 03-13-14, 12:26 AM

Originally posted by brodie

i stopped watching after he got broken in the 2nd set but he looked kind of hurt when i was watching, back injury or something i thought?

You should have continued watching. It was great theater. Just as he was about to quit the crowd starts cheering. Then he hits a couple of winners, makes a miraculous recovery from the injury and starts roaring like a lion and pumping his fist. He wins that set. Then gets behind in the 3rd and decides to quit again. What a joke.

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 12:51 AM

Amazing job by Cilic

I won one of my bets 100% and Marathonbet does not void if a player retires after 1st set

**poet** · 03-13-14, 12:54 AM

Originally posted by kenz

Amazing

I won one of my bets and Marathonbet does not void if a player retires after 1st set

Glad you wised up and stop laying the juice on these big favorites, Kenz. Cause you never know...

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 12:57 AM

Originally posted by poet

Glad you wised up and stop laying the juice on these big favorites, Kenz. Cause you never know...

Wawrinka is superior to Anderson

I made my profit betting on favourites

He lost because from what I see he did not care after 1st set. Wawrinka ML is lost, I lost $1800 but I still think it was not a bad pick

**poet** · 03-13-14, 01:04 AM

Originally posted by kenz

Wawrinka is superior to Anderson

I made my profit betting on favourites

He lost because from what I see he did not care after 1st set. Wawrinka ML is lost, I lost $1800 but I still think it was not a bad pick

What do you think of Djoker? Is it worth betting him in-game?

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 01:11 AM

Originally posted by poet

What do you think of Djoker? Is it worth betting him in-game?

Not watching so I dont have an idea

**matt1216** · 03-13-14, 01:30 AM

Kenz hit up Olivetti ML . Just about to start

**HatersGonnaHate** · 03-13-14, 03:41 AM

Originally posted by Robin Van Rogan

Wawrinka losing ripped me a new one.

It ruined all my plays, had him in 5 parlays, everything hit but him, a 1.20 favorite...

I'll probably have to reload my accounts, but it'll make me smarter in the long run.

It made me sick to my stomach, I read so much about this match and didn't see anybody picking Anderson, it was a lock as far as I'm concerned.

Luckily I don't have the biggest BR in the world, but percentage wise, it was devastating.

Gonna try to recoup some in the upcoming UFC, if I botch there too I'm gonna take a break.

yeah just a suggestion. Never have the same person in more than one parlay. I have learned the hard way many times before i stopped doing it

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 04:31 AM

Originally posted by kenz

Will probably lose these but will give it a try

$75 on Djokovic 2-1 @4.50 @Marathonbet
$50 on Cilic ML @8.30 @Marathonbet

Ridiculuous price on Marathonbet could not pass it. Too much value

+$262.5
-$50
=+$212.50

This was way more valueable than Cilic +1.5 sets @2.3

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 04:37 AM

(Was not planning to bet on Djokovic - Cilic until I saw Marathonbet odds. It is better to update the record and include the result for 13/03/2014)

First red day of 16 days of recording,

Began recording: 25/02/2014
Total Won: $12,702.20
Total Lost: $3,500
Total Profit: +$9,202.20

Total Wager: $27,875
Return of Investment: +33.01%

**MartyFR** · 03-13-14, 05:33 AM

Sup Kenz

Like anything for today?

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 05:44 AM

Originally posted by MartyFR

Sup Kenz

Like anything for today?

Only 2 games today

Trying to figure out the play in Dolgopolov - Raonic right now. With Dolgo there are so many question marks.

**zec** · 03-13-14, 05:48 AM

Don't force it, take a day off if needed

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 05:54 AM

Originally posted by zec

Don't force it, take a day off if needed

If I wont like anything, I will skip

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 06:17 AM

$500 on Dolgopolov - Raonic over 22 @1.49 @Pinnacle

The max game total I would go is over 22.5 @1.63 but it is not worth for $70 of more profit with this stake with the added risk of losing with a score like 7-5 6-4.

I think Dolgo is a bad matchup for Raonic by the way. Slow hard court where Dolgopolov proved he can hang with the best in groundstrokes. Dolgo +1.5 sets @1.47 also looks good.

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 07:15 AM

Originally posted by Robin Van Rogan

Wawrinka losing ripped me a new one.

It ruined all my plays, had him in 5 parlays, everything hit but him, a 1.20 favorite...

I'll probably have to reload my accounts, but it'll make me smarter in the long run.

It made me sick to my stomach, I read so much about this match and didn't see anybody picking Anderson, it was a lock as far as I'm concerned.

Luckily I don't have the biggest BR in the world, but percentage wise, it was devastating.

Gonna try to recoup some in the upcoming UFC, if I botch there too I'm gonna take a break.

Sorry for your loss. I really did not give the slightest possiblity for an upset here. Wawrinka blew the 3rd set, if he wanted to win, it would be very different

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 07:32 AM

From Wawrinka:

"For sure he's playing good," said Wawrinka. "He's a tough player to play on fast condition. He's serving big and always put a lot of pressure.
"But I'm more disappointed with myself. I felt I was tired mentally, but that's not the problem. I should just accept that and be positive. I think I was negative on all the match. I was complaining a lot about my serve, about the way I was playing, and with that, I don't deserve to win matches. I think I should have been more positive with myself, just trying to find solution, because it was still a close match."

Yes you should be more positive

**pellumb341** · 03-13-14, 08:00 AM

Originally posted by kenz

The guy is doing good in doubles at the moment.They will serve for the set

what a piss of shit.Had him on 2 parlays and he lost against Anderson.As he got injured , faded him on doubles and he won...

**zec** · 03-13-14, 08:43 AM

Agreed with what Wawrinka said; mentally he wasn't in the match, hard to justify considering he has played only Davis cup since AUS. These are not fast conditions, not sure what he is smoking there

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 09:34 AM

Originally posted by kenz

$500 on Dolgopolov - Raonic over 22 @1.49 @Pinnacle

The max game total I would go is over 22.5 @1.63 but it is not worth for $70 of more profit with this stake with the added risk of losing with a score like 7-5 6-4.

I think Dolgo is a bad matchup for Raonic by the way. Slow hard court where Dolgopolov proved he can hang with the best in groundstrokes. Dolgo +1.5 sets @1.47 also looks good.

$500 more on Dolgopolov - Raonic over 22 @1.47 @Pinnacle

Total:$1000

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 09:41 AM

$1000 on Kevin Anderson - Roger Federer over 19.5 @1.34 @unibet

1. The total looks to low to pass for me.
2. I may be spoiling myself with stakes because I am having a good run recently. Still this total looks to good to be true, 6-4 6-4 is enough

**professionalAD** · 03-13-14, 09:44 AM

where r u getting 22? lol i have BOL for 23.5

**kenz** · 03-13-14, 09:49 AM

Originally posted by professionalAD

where r u getting 22? lol i have BOL for 23.5

I like bookies where I can buy points like Pinnacle, Marathonbet, Unibet

**Hardcoar** · 03-13-14, 09:53 AM

Originally posted by matt1216

Anderson has been damn good, I will admit. Kinda suprised me. I figured he would be tired by now. Blood doping maybe? Lol

Naw it's just that Apartheid-power.