Kenz's Tennis

[kenz]

Is Not Murray in 2 Sets the same play as Raonic +1.5 sets?

I guess so, but I'm new to tennis betting, and 5Dimes doesn't have set handicap lines.

Yes, it is the same

[kenz]

If you would like to tail me or interested in tennis betting 5dimes sucks though. Horrible bookie for tennis

[Robin Van Rogan]

If you would like to tail me or interested in tennis betting 5dimes sucks though. Horrible bookie for tennis

I'm seeing that now.
I also have bet365, Unibet and Pinnacle, only have some money on 5D.
I need to move some money to those other bookies to have more options.

Thanks for the reply, I'm tailing you in for today's plays, hopefully I don't jinx everything like I always do haha

[kenz]

I'm seeing that now.
I also have bet365, Unibet and Pinnacle, only have some money on 5D.
I need to move some money to those other bookies to have more options.

Thanks for the reply, I'm tailing you in for today's plays, hopefully I don't jinx everything like I always do haha

Pinnacle is really fine.

Our plays are solid, I expect another 3/3 today.

BOL

[fitguy67]

3 plays on the front burner for today, Wednesday, March 12 (tentative starts are EasternTimeZone)

1400. Raonic +1.5 sets (v. Murray), posted at 1.42/-238.10
(for late shoppers: now a bit cheaper generally)

1700. Isner (v. Verdasco), posted at 1.48/-208.33
(for late shoppers: now a bit cheaper generally)

1730. Wawrinka (v. Anderson), posted at 1.22/-454.55
(for late shoppers: now a bit more expensive generally)

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did I miss anything?

None fitguy, very neat summary. Thanks But Wawrinka is cheaper too

I would add the stake/confidence

1. %2 of my Bankroll

2. %4 of my Bankroll

3. %6 of my Bankroll ( I never go heavier than this)

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bump to the new page

[JC1186]

I've been tossing up whether to take Wawa on the -4.0 Kenz. Sure he's a huge server but I caught the entire Donskoy match & these courts at IW are just way too slow. Quite frankly, Anderson is completely exposed when the first serve doesn't go in. And sure he'll free swing on Wawa service games but I would be surprised if he breaks the Swiss player even once let alone more tbh.

Donskoy was up *5-2 serving for the first set and choked the one break back. And even in set 2 Anderson went down on his serve a few times and had to fend off BP's.

Wawa should cover the -4.0 imo.

[Robin Van Rogan]

Pinnacle is really fine.

Our plays are solid, I expect another 3/3 today.

BOL

Best of luck indeed.

Keep up the good work man, always appreciate people posting their educated plays on these forums, helps beginners a lot.
Also congrats on your recent run, absolutely on fire

[kenz]

I've been tossing up whether to take Wawa on the -4.0 Kenz. Sure he's a huge server but I caught the entire Donskoy match & these courts at IW are just way too slow. Quite frankly, Anderson is completely exposed when the first serve doesn't go in. And sure he'll free swing on Wawa service games but I would be surprised if he breaks the Swiss player even once let alone more tbh.

Donskoy was up *5-2 serving for the first set and choked the one break back. And even in set 2 Anderson went down on his serve a few times and had to fend off BP's.

Wawa should cover the -4.0 imo.

Agreed. Kevin ANderson had a hard time against Hewitt and Donskoy, certainly Wawrinka's game is at least 2 level above these. Kevin's serve and groundstrokes are not as lethal as they were in Acapulco last week, too

Might take something like $150 on Wawrinka -hcp close to game time

BOL

[kenz]

Best of luck indeed.

Keep up the good work man, always appreciate people posting their educated plays on these forums, helps beginners a lot.
Also congrats on your recent run, absolutely on fire

Thanks man

[kenz]

$300 on Wawrinka ML @1.20 * Gulbis ML @1.33 = @1.60 @tempobet

[Hardcoar]

As much as I think both will win, current market odds are absolute whoreshit.

Do you honestly think their chances are better than ~83.3 and 75 per cent respectively??

[kenz]

As much as I think both will win, current market odds are absolute whoreshit.

Do you honestly think their chances are better than ~83.3 and 75 per cent respectively??

Wawrinka 99%, Gulbis will win today in the end somehow. Does this mean 100%?

I dont set the prices. If I did, I would set them higher I try to choose the ones who will win that day, not like 75% or I ask myself he would win at least 3 out of 4 games, or ask myself is this value.

Does this mean anything to you, not sure if I expressed what I want to do well

[Hardcoar]

It means that your estimate is 100 %, but that also means it's definitely a poor estimate.


Given your logic, why don't you just bet on every @ 1.00000001 line you can find, since you should think it will win most of the time?

[kenz]

It means that your estimate is 100 %, but that also means it's definitely a poor estimate.


Given your logic, why don't you just bet on every @ 1.00000001 line you can find, since you should think it will win most of the time?

I do go for @1.18s at some matchups I like from time to time, figuring out 18% interest for an hour and a half is not bad in today's world.

I am not a betting saint like you Hardcoar. I am simple, trying to figure out who will win that day

[zec]

HC is trying to get everyone to look at betting the way he does. But if I did that, I would almost never make any bets on favorites.

[kenz]

HC is trying to get everyone to look at betting the way he does. But if I did that, I would almost never make any bets on favorites.

I also think he is limiting himself too much.

His thread is doing good though and props for that.

[zec]

I like his thread but I am limited in the books I can have, so I have to make it work with shit odds which makes it impossible to win his way.

[kenz]

His method works good for him but I would never try that method. He is throwing many darts too. I like feeling like a winner and hitting 2 out of 8 bets at times, even though makes you break-even, does not make me feel good. I like a high percentage of hits. And I like them come easy, sweating in a game for an hour and a half affects your remaining day somehow even if you win in the end, you feel exhausted, grumpy, out-of-energy and depressed. I dont want those negative affects that come with betting. I want to enjoy it as much as possible

[Hardcoar]

I make heavy favorite plays when I find the line holds value. My method isn't to bet on high odds.

[kenz]

Gotta admit I am getting nervous about Raonic to win a set, mostly because of his injury

Price changes dont help too

[charley365]

Good luck with your play kenz.
your not favourite to make this, but the tie-break is 50/50
If he makes it there.

[newtotennis]

Love the thread. Gotten into tennis capping/betting over the last month but still relatively new.

Anyone have any insights on this Halep v. Dellacqua match? I know Halep is the favorite but she's had two tough 3-setters and Dellacqua had a walkover and will be much fresher plus has been playing well this year. Dellacqua is paying

Thanks

[newtotennis]

Love the thread. Gotten into tennis capping/betting over the last month but still relatively new.

Anyone have any insights on this Halep v. Dellacqua match? I know Halep is the favorite but she's had two tough 3-setters and Dellacqua had a walkover and will be much fresher plus has been playing well this year. Dellacqua is paying

Thanks

I realize you stay away from WTA Kenz (from previous posts) but appreciate any insight from anyone.

[zec]

Kenz doesn't bet on wta

[fitguy67]

$300 on Wawrinka ML @1.20 * Gulbis ML @1.33/-300

late shoppers special: can now get Gulbis ML @ 1.40/-250 (Pinnacle)

in HC's parlance: the price is now 16.67% "less whore-shitty" (aka. "less-bad"/ aka. "better") than it was

since already on with a good shot of Wawrinka, i've decided to just take Gulbis SU as my Kenz-inspired #4 play

[Betfrog]

Kenz what do you think about a counterbet on murray to take set 2?

[Betfrog]

njee not needed ;D

[charley365]

He get's it done!!!!!!!!!! unreal mug murray choke

[kenz]

$500 on Raonic +1.5 sets @1.42 @unibet

+$210

[kenz]

8 reasons to buy $500 on Raonic +1.5 sets @1.42

1. Raonic is underrated in groundstrokes in concrete. He really is. He is not the best, but he is not bad.
2. Murray adopted a defensive style of play lately, which does not cope well with him. His best results came when he was agrressive on the court. But somehow, maybe after his back injury he lost some confidenece, he is way to passive gives many opportunities for his opponent to make winners. Raonic has serve and FH power.
3. Murray is not as succesful in Masters as Nadal, Djokovic, Federer. Grand Slams is pretty much the only place where he seems to care playing good, historically he is not really interested in Masters.
4. Ignoring 2 walkovers, Raonic leads H2H 2-1. Murray's win came with a 3-0 victory in US Open, where he played aggressive and won his first Grand Slam and it was a Grand Slam(See number 3)
5. Murray has just one 2-0 set score in his last 8 matches against Joao Sousa who does not serve well, does not have Forehand power, generally a mediocre player.
6. Price change: Murray ML opening @1.50ish now @1.75ish
7. Raonic serves well this week, but Murray is broken 3 times to Rosol and 6 times to Vesely, looks bad.
8. Raonic is way better than Rosol and Vesely

Milos did it

[kenz]

I realize you stay away from WTA Kenz (from previous posts) but appreciate any insight from anyone.

I dont bet on WTA as zec said. Nobody should bet on WTA. It is the admiral ship of bookies.

late shoppers special: can now get Gulbis ML @ 1.40/-250 (Pinnacle)

in HC's parlance: the price is now 16.67% "less whore-shitty" (aka. "less-bad"/ aka. "better") than it was

since already on with a good shot of Wawrinka, i've decided to just take Gulbis SU as my Kenz-inspired #4 play

Gulbis will get it done fitguy

He get's it done!!!!!!!!!! unreal mug murray choke

Murray is overrated, agree with you bro

[charley365]

I thought you were fuxxed to be honest but well done on another one!!

[Bumdeal]

Murray won the first set then realized Kenz was on Raonic and became disheartened knowing the universe was against him

[Bumdeal]

I have a similar parlay, Gulbis + Warwinka + Halep.

Then I have another with Gulbis + Warinka + Dog + Federer.

If Halep screws me I am going to be sad.


GL Kenz.

[fitguy67]

I have a similar parlay, Gulbis + Warwinka + Halep.

...

If Halep screws me I am going to be sad.


GL Kenz.

And you won't be able to say you weren't warned off WTA repeatedly...

the worst thing for you long term is that you'll get lucky and WTA won't screw THIS BET up THIS TIME...and then u'll think it's maybe not that bad to bet on WTA from time to time, or just to fill up a parlay with now and gain with a "safe one"...slippery slope my friend...

t-shirt slogan to remember for life:
front of the t-shirt: broads are for bangin'...not bettin'
back of the t-shirt (doin' the latter screws up your financin' of the former)

the only possible exception to this would be to tap into a good proven long-term +unit tennis capper that includes WTA among their selections...and blindly tail the lot...don't try to "freestyle" ascertain value yourself as you can successfully do with Men's Singles ATP tennis and hi-quality MMA contests once you get the hang of it...

that's what god put HC in this world and on this board for...blindly follow (with sensible = small bet-sizes...cuz his picks will give you a lt profitable but st/mt very-bumpy $-ride)...if you really MUST have action on the gash there's lots of WTA in HardCoar's thread...but stick with one proven +units source, like HC, don't mixnmatch and don't try to "do it yourself" cuz you'll never get the hang of it and they'll kill all the profit u earn from thinkin' about and betting on real sports

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BTW, Another non-sport version of tennis which is really a bookie-donation scheme: Doubles (especially with the horseshit that passes for a 3rd-Set at most places nowadays)