Matt's Tennis Plays & Record keeping...

**matt1216** · 03-09-14, 07:42 PM

fck me. I knew zaballos was gonna take the 1st set from Verdasco. Fck these odds. 1 time in every tournament I swear to god the books fall asleep on lines. Fck I thought the Asians were good at math!

**matt1216** · 03-09-14, 07:49 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

matt, i know u're big on the books' lines tilting their hand to you about what they "know"

specific example i'd like u to comment on if/when convenient

Bet365 pre-game
Dodig -714
Gonzalez +450

a few minutes ago we were deadlocked in 3rd set at Dodig 5 - 4(serving) Gonzalez

indicating this match is far closer to a pickem now than pre-game
but b365's live odds were
Dodig -500
Gonzalez +333

Does 365 "know" that the big pre-game fave Dodig will win
(pisses me off cuz i figure Gonzalez has played surprisingly well-enough to reward me with at least a good enough softening on Dodig to allow me a nice green out)

Matt or anyone else can explain the "strategic" live pricing (apparently designed more to lock Gonzalez backers out of profitable greening-out than aimed at reflecting actual proabilistic realities)

_____________

edit: fukkin' right...backfired on 'em this time...they locked me into the full profit...rather than give me the opportunity to green out for the 50% i would have been happy with earlier when i wanted to (but couldn't because they made Dodig seem like a lock)

Here's an example) Mayer vs Nemo.

A. By the way the line is set up with the head to head taken into consideration. Mayer wins in 3 sets or Nemo wins SU 2 or 3 sets. What I'm saying is this should be a battle just by the way the line is set. I doubt mayer wins in 2 sets.

**matt1216** · 03-09-14, 09:14 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Here's an example) Mayer vs Nemo.

A. By the way the line is set up with the head to head taken into consideration. Mayer wins in 3 sets or Nemo wins SU 2 or 3 sets. What I'm saying is this should be a battle just by the way the line is set. I doubt mayer wins in 2 sets.

And Nemo wins set 1 easy.

**fitguy67** · 03-09-14, 09:44 PM

because of what i noticed at b365 yesterday and today (think it's always been happening, i just "wised up" recently)...i now "get" your angle...u look at the lines as "carrot and stick" indicators of what the book wants to steer you into/away from=what their wise guys think will lose/win respectively...

last night when sloane stephens' comicly-overweight twin (aka. taylor townsend) was up a break against Pennetta...and today when Gonzalez was hangin' super-tough with Dodig...the book just didn't want to give sweet odds on what they thought they'd eventually have to be paying out on...and they kept extra-sweet odds on the side they thought'd eventually lose...for the first time, i could see how they were trying to "direct" more $ into the side they wanted you on...and away from the one they didn't want you on...

so i see how you look at the 4-way set-bets as an indication of what they don't want you taking (thus what they they'll eventually have to pay out on)...

more of an art than a science...but if you can read their "intent" as revealed by the set-betting price-structure (which ones are too sweet/which ones are too sour)...and zig whenever they're obviously encouraging bettors to zag...it's money over the haul cuz book's line-setters are as sharp as they come

i could see it last night (they didn't want me fading Townsend's good start and loading up for a Penetta comeback...)...and today they obviously wanted me to buy into Gonzalez and give up on Dodig or at least keep those with Gonzalez tickets "stuck" with them, with no chance for a sweet green-out)...

i can easily see the line-setters doing a similar thing pre-game to the set-betting matrix...trying to steer $ into the ones they think are less likely to happen (and discourage bets on the one(s) they think are more likely)

______________________

tonight you read that they'd like us to bet on a quick Mayer win, because they see Nemo putting up a real fight...so they're sweetening the Mayer 2-0 payout and souring the other options (the single best way to play this might be Nemo games-won over if available...or the match over if it's set low enough to include two tough sets)...

**matt1216** · 03-09-14, 09:58 PM

Originally posted by fitguy67

because of what i noticed at b365 yesterday and today (think it's always been happening, i just "wised up" recently)...i now "get" your angle...u look at the lines as "carrot and stick" indicators of what the book wants to steer you into/away from=what their wise guys think will lose/win respectively...

last night when sloane stephens' comicly-overweight twin (aka. taylor townsend) was up a break against Pennetta...and today when Gonzalez was hangin' super-tough with Dodig...the book just didn't want to give sweet odds on what they thought they'd eventually have to be paying out on...and they kept extra-sweet odds on the side they thought'd eventually lose...for the first time, i could see how they were trying to "direct" more $ into the side they wanted you on...and away from the one they didn't want you on...

so i see how you look at the 4-way set-bets as an indication of what they don't want you taking (thus what they they'll eventually have to pay out on)...

more of an art than a science...but if you can read their "intent" as revealed by the set-betting price-structure (which ones are too sweet/which ones are too sour)...and zig whenever they're obviously encouraging bettors to zag...it's money over the haul cuz book's line-setters are as sharp as they come

i could see it last night (they didn't want me fading Townsend's good start and loading up for a Penetta comeback...)...and today they obviously wanted me to buy into Gonzalez and give up on Dodig)...so i can easily see the line-setters doing a similar thing to the set-betting matrix...trying to steer $ into the ones they think are less likely to happen (and discourage bets on the one(s) they think are more likely)

______________________

tonight you read that they'd like us to bet on a quick Mayer win, because they see Nemo putting up a real fight...so they're sweetening the Mayer 2-0 payout and souring the other options (the single best way to play this might be Nemo games-won over if available...or the match over if it's set low enough to include two tough sets)...

Theres a reason why Asians run most of the sites. There brain capacity along with the reverse phsycology will entice the "average" bettor every time. This is why the books make money in the end.

**Hardcoar** · 03-10-14, 05:55 AM

No. In the end bookmakers make money because they apply margins.

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 07:14 AM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

No. In the end bookmakers make money because they apply margins.

I understand this, but they seem to forget how to do this at times. Ex) Berdych losing @ 8:1 odds today to Bautista Agut... The guy has proven that he can chop trees down on these courts. You know some sharpest won big money off this. Benny vs Tsonga. Benny @ 4.25 to win? Tsonga has been pure trash all year. I can usually read when a big upset day is gonna happen. Why brain hated everything on the board yesterday. You know what I mean?

**Hardcoar** · 03-10-14, 08:29 AM

Yeah you have a point to some extent... the odds definitely talk, some times more than others.

**Semper Fidelis** · 03-10-14, 10:26 AM

Hey there Matt, do you see anything you like yet for today? You're probably still looking over all the matches, but there definitely seems to be more value today than yesterday's matches. I'm really liking Raonic and Penetta so far (in addition to the heavier favorites like Anderson and Wawrinka of course).

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 12:38 PM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

Hey there Matt, do you see anything you like yet for today? You're probably still looking over all the matches, but there definitely seems to be more value today than yesterday's matches. I'm really liking Raonic and Penetta so far (in addition to the heavier favorites like Anderson and Wawrinka of course).

Hey bud posting shortly

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 12:39 PM

Play #78

Wozniak ML 3.85 x 2 units

Play #79

Stosur + Murray 2.10 x 2 units

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 12:40 PM

Not many plays IMO. I will post the record later tonight

**fitguy67** · 03-10-14, 01:23 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

No. In the end bookmakers make money because they apply margins.

bang...in theory, exactly like the house (track) taking a rake out of each pot (pool)...

but in practice it's more complicated with sports betting, in that the book (as opposed to the house or the track) often can't resist the temptation to make even more than that guaranteed by their chalk...by, in effect, becoming a player themselves...by abandoning their passive "balance the two sides" approach and setting an opinionated line instead, hoping to attract more to the side that they've decided to "play" against (often at considerable risk...books apparently lost huge a few years ago when the Cardinals beat the Rangers in the World Series, to name but one prominent example)

**Semper Fidelis** · 03-10-14, 01:28 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Play #78

Wozniak ML 3.85 x 2 units

Play #79

Stosur + Murray 2.10 x 2 units

Why Stosur Matt? Was thinking of placing a decent sized wager on Pannetta - she owns Stosur h2h. I realize I may be missing something, but is Pannetta injured, or is Stosur actually playing better than anticipated lately?

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 01:33 PM

Originally posted by Semper Fidelis

Why Stosur Matt? Was thinking of placing a decent sized wager on Pannetta - she owns Stosur h2h. I realize I may be missing something, but is Pannetta injured, or is Stosur actually playing better than anticipated lately?

I think stosur gets it done. Sorry man just a feeling

**Hardcoar** · 03-10-14, 01:40 PM

Personally, I like the match to go three.

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 03:08 PM

Play #80

Stosur ML 1.95 x 2 units

**brodie** · 03-10-14, 03:10 PM

pennetta just got taken to 3 sets in a really close match with taylor townsend (who is fat as shit)... my lean was also stosur, wta fukked me earlier this week though so i'm staying away. gl matt

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 03:13 PM

Play #80

Makarova ML 2.54 x 2 units

*i think the slow court style suits Makarova better.

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by brodie

pennetta just got taken to 3 sets in a really close match with taylor townsend (who is fat as shit)... my lean was also stosur, wta fukked me earlier this week though so i'm staying away. gl matt

Thanks u too

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 03:14 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Play #78

Wozniak ML 3.85 x 2 units

Play #79

Stosur + Murray 2.10 x 2 units

Nice hit on Wozniak to start the day

**fitguy67** · 03-10-14, 03:52 PM

Vesely up a break, serving 4-3 vs HEAVY pre-game fave Murray...

and 365 live line-setters are like a "deer in the headlights"...

lines suspended for the last 5 minutes minimum (the entire 8th game--in which Murray broke)...while they "waited to see" what their position/strategy would be...

passively trying to collect $ from both sides of the market with opinion-neutral lines my ass...rather than fulfilling their textbook role as neutral "market-makers", the 365 live-linesmen were "frozen to the telly" like every other "player" during the crucial period...deciding what it would be in their best interest to do once the situation clarified sufficiently...

interesting

**Marillion** · 03-10-14, 03:56 PM

The guy who is commenting the match is amazing, every time Vesely takes a point, it's like "Ooh, he is amazing, he is not always good but when he is good, he is very good" and when Murray takes a point, he's like "Ooh, so unlucky!"

**brodie** · 03-10-14, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Marillion

The guy who is commenting the match is amazing, every time Vesely takes a point, it's like "Ooh, he is amazing, he is not always good but when he is good, he is very good" and when Murray takes a point, he's like "Ooh, so unlucky!"

there are certain commentators that will do that with every underdog

**Hardcoar** · 03-10-14, 04:11 PM

Originally posted by brodie

there are certain commentators that will do that with every underdog

They are all certified, fully licensed British f4glords, approved by Her Royal Majesty herself.

**fitguy67** · 03-10-14, 04:59 PM

Originally posted by brodie

pennetta just got taken to 3 sets in a really close match with taylor townsend (who is fat as shit)... my lean was also stosur, wta fukked me earlier this week though so i'm staying away. gl matt

damn...i had to chek the "horizontal" on my display...looked like Sloane Stephens after a 60-day All-CheeseCake diet insisted on by her new sponsor, Sara-Lee...couldn't believe what i was seeing...

the fat bitch hits the ball well enough tho...but please, if this is your livelihood...lay off the Fritos and hit the cardio till you look more like an athlete and less like the night-shift cashier at 7-11

**Hardcoar** · 03-10-14, 05:22 PM

Cheese cake isn't that high in calories, is it?

**Hardcoar** · 03-10-14, 05:26 PM

Some British f4gmaster just said:

"Oooooh... there's a rare loose one from Fognini!"

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 05:40 PM

Originally posted by Hardcoar

Some British f4gmaster just said:

"Oooooh... there's a rare loose one from Fognini!"

Fck me, he must be new. Wtf

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 05:41 PM

good job stosur! Way to suck about 15 cheese Dicks in set 3.

**lucasdawg** · 03-10-14, 05:42 PM

been awhile matt, bol with your plays gonna take Donskoy over anderson to start the day

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 06:41 PM

fck sakes, Giorgi was a decent look, but didn't have the guts to play. The donskonator for the upset!

**poet** · 03-10-14, 08:46 PM

I played her in game to win 500 bucks, Matt. Now I'm on Dolgo for 900. Wish me luck.

**matt1216** · 03-10-14, 08:54 PM

Originally posted by poet

I played her in game to win 500 bucks, Matt. Now I'm on Dolgo for 900. Wish me luck.

Good luck man. What a crazy dog day it is. Chalk eaters nightmare today

**poet** · 03-10-14, 09:07 PM

Originally posted by matt1216

Good luck man. What a crazy dog day it is. Chalk eaters nightmare today

Yeah, this tournament his a history of upsets. Let's remember for next time. But Dolgo is really dumb. He is not being offensive enough. I guess he got nervous.