sluggy's self accountability thread

**sluggy1616** · 01-10-14, 12:15 AM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

Using the tread to hold my self to a higher standard before making bets.

1/9/14 -lu/ferrer - under 21 -114
ferrer has played pretty badly his first few matches 1st serve points won of 70% vs young and 67% against lopez

Lu was 75% of 1st serves won in his first 2 matches-this number goes way down tonight

fererr was 7 of 13 in break points against donald and 4 of 4 against lopez so he is getting better

I think he fine tunes this against a weaker Lu who has played much weaker opponents to this point and really struggled with Klahn

I think 6-3 6-4 is a likely outcome given the above analysis

1/2 unit play (since 250 tourney)

**ClutchOnandWin** · 01-10-14, 12:19 AM

Risky imo.

Ferrer is essentially a grinder and so is Lu, but the major thing in this is Lu loves Auckland's surface.

Remember all those years back where Lu beawt Roddick in the fourth round at wimbledon? He has an excellent LOW CENTER of gravity which allows him to benefit most when playing on low bounce courts. Wimbledon where the ball skids up of the grass and stays low is example of this. Auckland's courts are low bouncing.

May be close.

**ClutchOnandWin** · 01-10-14, 12:48 AM

Can I ask whether you often use bps, bps taken and bps facen stats? and whether you compare the route a player has taken to the final etc etc?

These lower ranked player's are quite good. Klhan for example. IMO, the depth of men's tennis is biiiig.

**sluggy1616** · 01-10-14, 02:03 AM

And the whiff.

-0.57

**sluggy1616** · 01-12-14, 12:28 PM

AO

Giraldo +205- 1/4 unit

If Query is not serving well I think this could be close. Giraldo can play ok on the hard courts

Istomin -2 1/2 games -120= 1/4 unit

bagdatis had a crap year last year- line looks fishy so keeping it a quarter bet

**sluggy1616** · 01-12-14, 10:07 PM

Add

Lacko +11 + 120 / half-unit

**sluggy1616** · 01-13-14, 11:23 AM

Ytd 2-2 +0.03

**sluggy1616** · 01-13-14, 05:27 PM

Ain't got no picks today. Got a few border lines that I got in my head. If EP takes em I might get on em. I jumped a few of his picks last night that won for me(did not include in my record). I guess it ain't stealin. Its nice to have someone elses analysis confirm your own when you are not so sure in your own head.

A/O record 2-1 +0.60

**sluggy1616** · 01-13-14, 09:05 PM

Sijsling -3 -125 - half unit

I think Kokkinakis is a good player, I just think this moment is too much for him.

Its the Aussie open he's playing in front of 3000 people and he has to play right after his country mate Nick, who I expect to put in a good performance, which puts that much more pressure on Thannassi to do well.

Igor also played very well against Mahut & YU so he is in good form.

I think -3 is a gift. I'm not a psychiatrist so I'm keeping this bet to a half unit.

**sluggy1616** · 01-13-14, 09:37 PM

monfils/harrison under 36 -125 = 1/4 unit

Monfils is just playing too well. Even if harrison is serving well I will get a push with 3, 7-5 sets

**sluggy1616** · 01-13-14, 10:31 PM

Tailing EP

Seppi/Hewitt over 36 -120/ 1/4 unit

Its hot, its a day match we know Hewitt will fight. Seppi made it to the RD of 16 in last years A/O. He HAS to try to defend those points!!! Feds is struggling with Duckworth right now. You take the Fed win away from Hewitts last tourney and the the tourney win is meh. Seppi smacked around Hewitt last year so Seppi has the tools to get at least a set from this match. Would not be shocked if he won. I think at least 4 sets is a given unless Hewitt lays an egg.

**sluggy1616** · 01-13-14, 11:08 PM

Haase/Young Under 40 -120 /quarter unit

40 is a big number. I think it might be getting to the point where coaches might be telling their players to "let the set go" or "end the points quick" if they are behind a break in a set. Thus leading to low set scores.These players next match will most likely be played in the heat.

I might be wrong thats why its a qtr unit bet. I never bet this much in early rounds. I just think these weather conditions are creating special situations.

**sluggy1616** · 01-14-14, 03:50 PM

2-1-1 last night

Igors a chump. Went to bed after his 6-0 2nd set thinking i'm money good. Idiot. Maybe I'm the idiot.(Note to self-don't bet against an EP pick)

4-2-1 for A/O +0.475

I'm starting to get confident that I'm capping my matches with good rationales and am reaching valid conclusions. Unit sizes will increase from here on out.

**sluggy1616** · 01-14-14, 03:59 PM

Not going to make any plays for todays matches. My plan is to look at tomorrows match-ups and look for those guys who had really tough/long matches in the heat yesterday that are playing guys who had shorter/night matches and put my own number on those. If I see any discrepancies with my number and the books I'll most likely bet it.

**sluggy1616** · 01-14-14, 10:48 PM

Querry/Gulbis over 41 -120-half unit

Querry +173 -qtr unit

I expect the guys to serve well and the returner to not try too hard. I see lots of 7-6 sets in this thing. Throwing a little on Querry. Watched his first round match. He was solid most of the time. He was also trading ground strokes with girado who is a solid baseliner.

**sluggy1616** · 01-14-14, 10:55 PM

Winning Dogs of Thursday

Its hot- some of these will hit.(better players will retire or maybe lose 1st set and say f it) Hard to do any real analysis with these conditions.
All plays 1/8th unit

young+195
sock+650
gabash+475
kavic+2000
kyrgios+225
Lajovic+613
hanescut:+500

Bark-em up boys!!!

**sluggy1616** · 01-15-14, 11:22 AM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

Querry/Gulbis over 41 -120-half unit

Querry +173 -qtr unit

I expect the guys to serve well and the returner to not try too hard. I see lots of 7-6 sets in this thing. Throwing a little on Querry. Watched his first round match. He was solid most of the time. He was also trading ground strokes with girado who is a solid baseliner.

1-1 yesterday
A/O 5-3-1 +0.565

**sluggy1616** · 01-16-14, 11:17 AM

2 of my dogs got it done. I think more would of had the chance if they had not instituted the heat policy.

A/O +0.5275

**sluggy1616** · 01-16-14, 08:54 PM

todays picks

foggy/query over 40 -105 -half unit

Foggy +158 -half unit

Ferrer/chardy over 40.5 -125-half unit

robrado/gasquet over 39.5 -114-half unit

robredo +160 -half unit

anderson/roger over 40.5 -120 half unit

istomin +8.5 -105 half unit

**sluggy1616** · 01-16-14, 09:05 PM

why do i bet on these french dudes!!! i know better than this

**sluggy1616** · 01-17-14, 12:44 AM

Sluggy going drinking tomorrow mid day so throwing out picks now

monfils +6.5 -114 1 unit

d young +7.5 -110 -1/2 unit
dyoung +525 -1/2 unit
dimitov:+115-half unit

kilzane -3 -110 - half unit

I will drink in praise of the mighty tennis gods. May you have mercy on my picks!!!

**sluggy1616** · 01-17-14, 09:36 AM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

todays picks

foggy/query over 40 -105 -half unit-L

Foggy +158 -half unit-W

Ferrer/chardy over 40.5 -125-half unit-L

robrado/gasquet over 39.5 -114-half unit-W

robredo +160 -half unit-W

anderson/roger over 40.5 -120 half unit-W

istomin +8.5 -105 half unit -W

5-2 yesterday +2.6175

**sluggy1616** · 01-17-14, 09:37 AM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

Sluggy going drinking tomorrow mid day so throwing out picks now

monfils +6.5 -114 1 unit

d young +7.5 -110 -1/2 unit
dyoung +525 -1/2 unit
dimitov:+115-half unit

kilzane -3 -110 - half unit

I will drink in praise of the mighty tennis gods. May you have mercy on my picks!!!

I put a lot of thought into yesterdays picks. I put very little thought in todays picks.

TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK

**sluggy1616** · 01-17-14, 08:50 PM

adding

gabush +9 -105 /half unit

**sluggy1616** · 01-17-14, 10:54 PM

Add

young/niko under 33 -130 -half unit

looking like one of those nights for me. Need to hedge some of my Donald Duck exposure

**sluggy1616** · 01-17-14, 11:10 PM

add

murry/lopez over 36.5 -110 - half unit

**sluggy1616** · 01-17-14, 11:29 PM

Add

MONFILS +698 - 1/2 UNIT

He played Nadal tight in Doha. My internal numbers make this a play. Down with the Ass picking, face wiping Spaniard!!!

**sluggy1616** · 01-18-14, 01:30 PM

Bit of a blood bath yesterday. I started capping tennis last June so I know I'm gonna have to take some lumps along the way. Gonna learn from my mistakes and try to improve my form as the season progresses. There is a lot of tennis left this year!!!

A/O -0.6725

**sluggy1616** · 01-18-14, 04:38 PM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

I put a lot of thought into yesterdays picks. I put very little thought in todays picks.

TAIL AT YOUR OWN RISK

This is not a pick post, its a self rant. The above is not acceptable!!!!

For any gambler/capper to be successful, they must have a proven process and most importantly they must have discipline.

If the caper has a proven process but is undisciplined he will still be a loser. I ignored my process(which by the way is not close to being proven that it is a winning process) and I was undisciplined.

Even if I had a good feel for a match today, I would not bet it. A loss would be much more negative to my confidence then a win would be positive. This shows me I don't have the mental fortitude to be a successful caper. Thats fine. This is fun and it is intellectually stimulating. As long as I practice good money management I won't go broke and will have fun along the way. I guess my thread will be a mental health outlet for me also.

Best of luck to everyone tonight and the rest of the season!!! I'll be watching and enjoying the banter and of course watching the tennis matches.

**sluggy1616** · 01-19-14, 03:47 PM

Didn't play last night but my leans were right on.

1/19-

nadal/nik under 31 -130 -half unit

nadal played really well against monfils(at least in the first set) Monfils was really on but nadal was on fire. Playing a half unit in case the Nadal ankle is an issue

dimotov/aug over 39.5 -115 -half unit

dimotov is 85% to win the point when his 1st serve goes in. Dimo has had weak service sets in all of his previous matches. This is were Aug can get on the board. I think Dimo wins but he could have a bad serve day or Aug might just be that dialed in, so I'll stick with the over.

I might have more picks later after I see EP's sheet. Strategy is to see his picks and see if I can put holes in his picks. If I can't I'm tailing.(except for the wta)

**sluggy1616** · 01-19-14, 04:58 PM

Add

Tsonga to win a set- -137/half unit

Feds is playing really well right now. Tsonga seems to be playing well. Tsonga has historically given Feds good matches even in Feds best years. While Feds is playing well he has not faced an opponent this year that comes close to Tsongas quality. I think there is a high probability that Tsonga can take a set at the very least. I'll give Fed the benefit of the doubt by playing only a half unit.

**sluggy1616** · 01-19-14, 07:01 PM

Originally posted by sluggy1616

Didn't play last night but my leans were right on.

1/19-

nadal/nik under 31 -130 -half unit

nadal played really well against monfils(at least in the first set) Monfils was really on but nadal was on fire. Playing a half unit in case the Nadal ankle is an issue

dimotov/aug over 39.5 -115 -half unit

dimotov is 85% to win the point when his 1st serve goes in. Dimo has had weak service sets in all of his previous matches. This is were Aug can get on the board. I think Dimo wins but he could have a bad serve day or Aug might just be that dialed in, so I'll stick with the over.

I might have more picks later after I see EP's sheet. Strategy is to see his picks and see if I can put holes in his picks. If I can't I'm tailing.(except for the wta)

For documentations sake the Demo/aug play is a half unit because these guys have not made it this far into the a major tourney. One or both of these guys could get nervous and crap the bed.(ala Klizane)

**sluggy1616** · 01-20-14, 02:50 AM

Chasing:

Fed to win a set -278: 1/2 unit

I have Tsonga to win a set so the bet really costs me -178.

**sluggy1616** · 01-20-14, 11:43 AM

1-3 last night

Picks all had a reasonable basis. Sometimes the right play just doesn't hit. Oh well

A/O -2.0825

For tonight:

Joker not to win in 3 sets: +108 - 2 units

Dough boy has to be on a high after beating his nemesis in straight sets winning 90% of the points when his 1st serve went in.

I think given this result and his result against Joker last US Open he can take a set. I also think Joker might take a look at what happened to Nadal(ass picker overworking himself against Monfils and messing up his hand) and think that trying to crush Stan may not be worth the long term cost. Rafa is wounded. If Joker just plays smart conservative tennis, he should cruise to the title.