Woot. A WonkTA winner. At least something went right.
-
Comment -
2014 Season Overall Profit: -3.91
Comment -
E-PHan, Watson to be humbled or back into a final?Comment -
Not sure about humbled, but Keys is playing awfully well.Comment -
6.20.14
WTA Eastbourne: Wozniacki +120
Eastbourne Parlay: Gasquet + Keys +135
Comment -
thank you sirComment -
Well I'll take the split today and a small profit.Comment -
2014 Season Overall Profit: -3.56
Small goal for Wimbledon. Get back to even.
Comment -
Testing some stuff. Pay no mind as I edit.Comment -
Colima BurgersComment -
Larger write-up for Wimbledon since I actually have the time. Part One below. Part Deux coming a little later for anyone who gives a shit.
Wimbledon Overview
Over the past few years, Wimbledon has been home to some of the bigger Grand Slam upsets in recent times. 2013 saw the first ever 1st round Grand Slam exit for Rafael Nadal at the hands of Belgian Steve Darcis. We also witnessed Roger Federer dropping out in the 2nd round at the hands of Sergiy Stakhovsky. In 2012, Rafael Nadal suffered another shock exit n the 2nd round to Lukas Rosol. The same year, 6th seeded Tomas Berdych fell in his opener to unseeded Ernests Gulbis. Upsets and retirements have been a huge part of the early rounds among the top 12 seeds.
Guys with big serves and big ground strokes will have chances to pull off these stunning upsets we have seen. So weigh the match-ups, know who has the big game to pull these off and which seeds might be must vulnerable. Take your shots on the big dogs and you could very well make some nice cash in the early rounds when the surface is at its quickest, still fresh and slick and not chewed up from several matches. Most of the players agree that as the tournament goes on, the surface becomes slower with higher bounces where the big boppers won't necessarily be in line for those upsets that could happen in the 1st couple rounds. Here's the breakdown of how the seeds have struggled early.
In 2013, five of the top 12 seeds were done by Round Two and two more would join them by Round Three. In 2012, three of the top 12 seeds were out in Rounds One & Two with two more gone by Round Three. In 2011, some normalcy was prevalent with no upsets of top 12 seeds in the 1st two rounds. However, four top 12 seeds were ousted in the third round. Overall, the 1st round over the past three years has seen 19 seeds knocked out in the 1st round: 2011 (5), 2012 (7), 2013 (7)
Seed Vulnerability Report
Let's take a look at the seeds at this year's tournament and who might be most vulnerable due to poor form, poor surface play or health questions. These are not necessarily guys who will lose in round one or two - but some look destined to be gone by the 3rd round if they're not careful.
#2 Rafael Nadal
It's hard to think about rating one of the all-time greats a good fade, but the track record speaks for itself. Nadal has been out in the 1st or 2nd round here in two straight tournaments and has lost four of his last six matches on grass.
#5 Stan Wawrinka
Wawrinka has shown a little bit on grass in each of the last two seasons in the short grass court season prior to Wimbledon. He made the Queens Club semis this year, but was beaten soundly by Dimitrov in that semifinal match. Last year, he made the Final of the Dutch tournament where lost in straights to Mahut. The problem? Once he gets to Wimbledon, he loses. First round losses three of the last four years and gone in the 2nd round in four straight. \
#7 David Ferrer
Normally, I'd pass right over Ferrer even though this surface is not his best - he's proven very solid at Wimbledon. He's made the quarters the last two years and at least the 4th round the two years prior to that. This year though he is a big injury concern. He's had the stomach flu for around 10 days that kept him from the Dutch prep tournament last week. He has been cleared to play, but we need to see his fitness level. Luckily, his first few rounds are fairly easy.
#8 Milos Raonic
You figure his big game would translate well to the quick conditions, but he's lost five of six on grass and has not progressed further than the 2nd round in three tries here. Sock or Herbert in the 2nd round could be a challenge, but he really has a good draw. I don't see how you can trust him 100% until he proves better on this surface.
#12 Ernests Gulbis
He'll probably be a hot pick for a darkhorse by many, but his track record on grass is mediocre and that is being kind. He's 8-14 all-time on the surface. At Wimbledon, he had his best showing last year by making the third round. Prior to that, it was the 2nd round or earlier in five straight years. I don't expect him to go much further than that.
#14 Jo-Wilifried Tsonga
There was a time when Tsonga was a real threat here. Those days seem long ago as Tsonga is enduring a very average 2014. Watch out in the opener as he faces Jurgen Melzer who has been played inspired since returning from injury. Tsonga did whip him in straights at the French Open, but Melzer has looked better on Grass with a semifinal showing at the Dutch tournament. Tsonga looked careless in losing his 2nd match at Queens Club. After two straight semifinal showings, he was forced to retire in the 2nd round to Gulbis last year. He's got a tough draw overall.
#15 Jerzy Janowicz
It's pretty much been a full year since Janowicz has seen any worthwhile results. Making the semis last year was a career highlight and it's been all downhill since. The Pole lost his only Grass Court prep match in Halle to Herbert. In 2014, he's failed to win three matches in a row in any tournament, so his prognosis here could be for a quick exit. Round one with Devvarman should be a win, but nothing is easy these days and the Flying Indian took him five sets at the Australian Open in 2013. An interesting watch this week because his ranking plummets if his poor results continue.
#16 Fabio Fognini
A fish out of water on this surface. The Italian lost in Round One to Jurgen Melzer in 2013 and has failed to make it past the 2nd round in four of his five tries at the All-England Club. He's another one granted a cake draw early with Alex Kuznetsov to start and a 2nd round meeting with Puetz or Gabashvili.
#21 Alexandr Dolgopolov
Dolgopolov is always a tough one to predict, but he comes in with some injury question as he has suffered from a leg issue since the French Open. It was a thigh strain that reportedly knocked him out of Queens Club and then he withdrew from Eastbourne this week with the same problem. Rest may have helped, but regardless he is just 4-4 at Wimbledon. He faces the biggest server on-tour in Groth to open and tricky guys after that if he survives
#22 Phillipp Kohlschreiber
Normally, the German is an adept Grass Court player with great success in Halle and a decent 10-9 mark at Wimbledon with a quarterfinal appearance in 2012. However, the German has also lost in the 1st round two of the last three years. His play in Halle showed someone who was struggling a bit, so he's boom or bust to me. I can see Sijsling beating him to open or Kohlschreiber being in position for a 4th round match.
#23 Tommy Robredo
Robredo has two 1st round losses in the last three years at Wimbledon. He did make the 3rd round last year and beat a pretty decent grass courter in Mahut. Still, he's shaky on this surface and Lacko may bite him in the 1st round.
#30 Marcel Granollers
This figures to be a popular 1st round upset pick as he goes against Nicolas Mahut. Granollers has lost in the 1st round in three straight years.
#32 Dmitry Tursunov
Tursunov has to be on this list simply because his 1st round draw of Denis Istomin is a rough one. Istomin is 3-0 against the Russian this year, all coming on hard courts. Oh that and he withdrew from Hertogenbosch with a foot injury.
Qualifiers Records in Round One
7-5 in 2013
7-3 in 2012
3-9 in 2011
6-5 in 2010
Qualifiers are always ones to watch in the 1st round as they cane have an edge with more match play. A pretty solid track record for qualifiers who play non-qualifiers in the opening round over the last four years. Don't overestimate them against some of the seeded players though. For the most part, they do not have a great track record of knocking off seeds in the opening round. Do look at match-ups though, there are some where it does make sense to try.
Comment -
Djokovic Quarter
These are just my gut predictions for the brackets. As always, you need to adjust to what you see during the tournament, but this is what I am looking at going into Day 1. The top seed appears to have a quarter conducive to a deep run. He'll see a few tests through the early rounds with Stepanek and/or Simon likely to fall into his path along the way. Tsonga is seeded to face him in the 4th round. Tsonga will have his own worries ahead of getting there though with a tough opener and other tests prior to seeing Djokovic. Do keep an early eye on Djokovic's wrist. It was the reason he pulled out of an exhibition match and that's a little scary, although hopefully just a precaution.
The bottom of the bracket seeds Berdych as the 6th seed and Gulbis as the 12th. The lack of success for Gulbis on grass is maybe a little surprising, but it may have to do more with a lack of confidence from a lack of match-play prior to the start of Wimbledon. He's got a very tricky draw, so I don't see his luck changing. If he gets to the 3rd round, he should consider that a solid showing. Berdych also won't see any favors in his draw. Berdych usually plays well here, so I think he can find his way through - but I won't be surprised if he gets knocked off along the way either.
Murray Quarter
Last year's Champion finds himself without a lot of match play prep work after he fell early at Queens Club. He's got new coach Amelie Mauresmo who guided Marion Bartoli to last year's WTA Wimbledon Title in his corner. It will be interesting to see how that affects his game. He's allotted a good early draw that should help him gain some momentum. The other part of the top half of this bracket could feature plenty of upsets. Fognini is seeded 16th and seeded to face Murray in the 4th, but I'm not banking on that. Kevin Anderson is the other seed here, but he's historically not done well at Wimbledon. Watch out for Roger-Vasselin. He's shown good on grass and I think he's capable of stinging a couple of these seeds for a surprise run.
On the bottom half of the quarter, there's some intrigue. Ferrer is the 7th seed with Dimitrov as the 11th. Ferrer comes in having suffered from the flu for a couple weeks. He should be fortunate in that his fitness should not get a big test in the first couple of rounds. Dimitrov looks to have a nice draw to the 4th round. He's got a struggling Ryan Harrison to open with, although Harrison could push him early with qualifying under his belt. After that, Dolgopolov is the only seed he would see before the 4th round. Dog has struggled with leg issues, so I don't fancy him to be a huge factor. Big serving Sam Groth could wreak some havoc in this part of the draw or grass court specialist Benjamin Becker. Down in Ferrer's half, watch out for the winner of what should be a highly entertaining 1st rounder: Dustin Brown vs. Marcos Baghdatis. I like the winner to see another win before Ferrer likely stops them in the 3rd, but that's no given.
Federer Quarter
Does the aging vet have one more run in him at his favorite Slam? His draw is not the easiest among the top four seeds, but it is workable. I think the 2nd round will prove to be that trouble spot that he'll need to survive. It will be Benneteau or big serving Muller in that spot. Janowicz and Robredo are in this section as seeds, but Janowicz is low on form and Robredo low on Wimbledon success to be a true threat. I like an upset or two to push through in the top part with Hewitt, Mannarino & Lacko all capable of springing some surprises.
The top half of the quarter is led by Wawrinka as the 6th seed and Isner as the 9th. Neither has enjoyed a wealth of success at Wimbledon. There are some very dangerous floaters here that I can see pulling off deep runs. Denis Istomin and Felciano Lopez who has again shown to be a tremendous grass court player with back-to-back Finals appearances at Queens Club and Eastbourne. That includes winning the Eastbourne title. He's in the bottom of the quarter with Isner and I like Lopez to at least make the 4th round. Istomin looks tricky up top for Wawrinka. He'll need to beat Tursunov to open, but he's got his number and the Russian came up injured in grass preps. I think there could be a pair of non-seeds meeting for a quarterfinal birth.
Nadal Quarter
Plenty will look to Nadal to flop early. Who could question that logic as he's failed to make it past the 2nd round in each of the last two years. He has Klizan to open and then might face the man who knocked him out two years ago in the 2nd round in Lukas Rosol. I'd throw his Halle loss to Dustin Brown out the window as Nadal admitted he wasn't really prepared on the short turnaround. Health wise, he claims himself to be solid with his knee. We'll see. Ivo Karlovic looks a potential danger in the bottom of this quarter, but as the grass gets chewed up over the first few days - he'll be less potent. Gasquet is at the top of this part of the quarter and he looked solid in Eastbourne. I like his draw with Monfils as the other seed along the way to a 4th round showing. Keep an eye on Aussie youngster Kyrgios if his serve is humming. He could surprise.
Opposite of Nadal, you'll find Raonic and Nishikori as the top seeds in that part of the quarter. Neither has seen deep runs at Wimbledon, but that could change this year. As the 8th seed, Raonic has the draw to progress. Ebden first-up, Herbert or Sock next and then Garcia-Lopez or maybe Kubot in the third. Nishikori faces a real tough opener with De Schepper and there's a chance he could be knocked out in the 1st round. If he survives there though, look for him to at least go three rounds. Kohlschreiber is seeded 22nd and in this part of the quarter. He can be really good on grass, but in Halle he struggled while advancing to the semifinals. He also has several flame outs in the 1st round at Wimbledon. Sijsling is going to give him all he wants in the 1st round. If he can advance, don't be surprised if he is a player for a quarterfinal birth.
Quarterfinal Possibilities
Djokovic vs Berdych
Murray vs. Dimitrov
Lopez vs. Federer
Nishikori vs. Nadal
Comment -
Last Part of the Preview will be Futures Plays. Working over some #s on those and will post them in a little bit. Hope some of this is useful or at least gives you another vantage point to look at whether it's well off or proves to have some correctness to it.Comment -
Futures Plays
"To Win Quarter"
These are drastically under utilized in my opinion. Most are going to be looking at the futures for the player to win the tournament whereas these might provide you with a better shot to cash and easier green out options.
Quarter #3 [Federer]
This quarter has some intriguing possibilities. Federer @ -155 ranks 2nd lowest to Nadal @ -110 to win his quarter. The reasons are there to see. He will face either a man who pushed him hard a few years ago in Benneteau or your proto-typical serve not in Gilles Muller in the 2nd round. The grass is likely to still be slick and quick where Muller could prove a tough out. Should he shake that round, you have to like his chance to be in position to get to a quarter. Janowicz is in his area, but I'm not buying anything about the Big Pole turning it on. He's had a whole year to get something going and rarely has. Up top, long odds could lend to a good opportunity. Lopez @ +1100 is really intriguing as he's got the best grass court form of anyone and has shown he is capable of running deep at Wimbledon. Istomin @ +5000 for the dartboarders. He's up top with Wawrinka, but Wawrinka rarely produces here.
Quarter 4 [Nadal]
This quarter could be a gold mine. You have the lowest rated of the top four seeds to win his quarter in Nadal @ -110. Up top, Raonic & Nishikori are the seeds who lack Wimbledon success, but have the draws to run deep. Raonic is +500 to win the quarter and Nishikori is at +700. The prices seems right with Nishikori having a tougher run to get to Raonic in the 4th round. Gasquet @ +1000 & Kohlschreiber @ +1200 are intriguing long shots if you think Nadal will be gone in the early stages. Riding with Nadal here is not a bad option IF you believe he can survive the first few rounds. After that, you're going to have green out possibilities all the way through. There's definitely a lot of food for thought in this quarter.
"To Win The Title"
Djokovic is your favorite @ +182. I want to see him play a round or two before I would think of backing this position due to the wrist injury scare this week. It's probably nothing, but if it's something - you can save yourself an investment by seeing him play. You're not going to likely lose a ton of price on Djokovic barring some big upsets of the top seeds early.
Federer @ +550 is one that interests me as well as Murray @+435. Federer is too old, right? Murray too out of form, right? Perhaps, but both have the experience and Murray has a pretty nice draw to find some form. Federer if he can fight through the early rounds could prove to be very dangerous especially on Nadal's side of the bracket.
Comment -
on the write-up
Comment -
Thinking of doing a 500 dollar parlay on Evans/Kuznetsov over 3.5 sets and Edmund/Haider-Maurer over 3.5 games at about +125Comment -
It's like Christmas Eve, the night before Day 1 of a Grand Slam. I will be trying to utilize the open parlay. Basically looking at a few of the players I think have the best match-ups for the day, but aren't into the outrageous -1000 and higher territory. Risking one unit on the Open Parlay.
Wimbledon, Monday June 23rd
Open Parlay #1 [8 slots] *Risking 1.0 units
1. Stepanek -980 [6.23]
2. Querrey -720 [6.23]
3. Kvitova -765 [6.23]
Parlay
Stakhovsky + Bautista-Agut @ -106 *Risking 1.06 to win 1.00
Singles *Dogs risking 0.5/Total to win 0.5 unit
Pospisil +110
Saville +200
Vandeweghe +120
De Brito +178
Konjuh +145
Kuznetsov-Evans Under 40.5 @ -112
Comment -
Futures Plays *All risking 0.5 unit
Kerber to Win @ +7500
Federer to Win @ +550
Dimitrov to Win Quarter @ +475
Comment -
What's the open parlay mean?Comment -
5dimes allows you to build a parlay as you go. You can pick how many choices you want it to be up to 25. You fill it whenever you want, the idea being to put it plays you really like the best. For me. I prefer it to choosing say 8-10 high chalk favorites all on one day.Comment -
On pospisil as well. Good luckComment -
Not a bad start. Hit the parlay. Open Parlay is one hold from Querrey away from winning the 1st three spots. Got 3/5 dogs home with De Brito in play. Total missed by 1. 41.Comment -
Good start EP!!! Not to jack your thread, but where did you see that Evans had knee problems??
I missed that and I can't afford to miss out on that kind of info.Comment -
I read about it the last tournament he played. Think it was Eastbourne because I was about to take him over Kamke before I read about it. Wound up taking Kamke who beat him easily. I figured he might win a set today, some adrenaline playing at home and knowing it might be his last match for a bit - really sucked that the # fell right at the set total and I was on the wrong side.
Usually I google a player's name and injury for any match I am thinking about betting. 9 times out of 10 if they've had some issue, especially a lingering one, you'll find a blurb on it somewhere.Comment -
Lookin forward to tom ep. Way to clean up!Comment -
Also probably the best Twitter feed about injuries/retirements logged. Doesn't give you severity necessarily, but if someone retires they usually have it listed on that feed. Helps you to be able to go search more in-depth on the injury or to avoid a player if you have any questions.
Comment -
Great find on that Twitter feed. I tailed your open parlay picks to close one of my own; was hoping to finish it today before the Brazil game as it sadly represents the last of my 5 dimes funds and I was going to start another, but c'est la vie. Good luck to us tomorrow and looking forward to more of your plays/Comment -
this site tracks retirements
Comment -
Any thoughts on karlovic tom ep?Comment -
Slick grass should help his serve, but he's only ever had one run at Wimbledon. Dancevic always seems like he could win against a one dimensional player, but he usually finds a way to fail. I just don't think taking the larger chalk when a couple sets could come down to TBs is something I want to sweat against certain players. He will probably win tomorrow, but he's just one guy at the high price that I am not going to get behind.Comment
