Smogs English Football Thread

**Karayilan9** · 10-24-09, 11:39 AM

Smogs the English leagues especially the EPL is tough to cap, the books focus on this league as it gets the most action, everything you have looked at, the stats, info, etc they have plus a whole lot more. They make a killing in these leagues and collude with the media who pump up teams and change the way people think about games.

Look at today, Wigan beat Burnley, Stoke beat Tottenham, Aston Villa couldn't beat Wolves, Sunderland lost etc etc these were all plays with >80% of the money on the teams that lost, the books have made enough of these games for the next week to come.

Its best to fade heavy public plays in the EPL, I fell for Burnley today but feel like a mug for not fading the public plays.

**Smogs** · 10-24-09, 12:02 PM

Cheers guys, but i said before the weekend, i just need to chill for a bit.
I am sitting on a potential 70 units atm, with cardiff and chopra doing so well so i will like to see that progress through November and see what i am looking at.
I still like the Bolton/Everton play that i analysed on that particular thread and would advise people to play that value but i will take a break for now.
I will still contribute to betting on here though

**lakerboy** · 10-24-09, 12:11 PM

Originally posted by Karayilan9

Smogs the English leagues especially the EPL is tough to cap, the books focus on this league as it gets the most action, everything you have looked at, the stats, info, etc they have plus a whole lot more. They make a killing in these leagues and collude with the media who pump up teams and change the way people think about games.

Look at today, Wigan beat Burnley, Stoke beat Tottenham, Aston Villa couldn't beat Wolves, Sunderland lost etc etc these were all plays with >80% of the money on the teams that lost, the books have made enough of these games for the next week to come.

Its best to fade heavy public plays in the EPL, I fell for Burnley today but feel like a mug for not fading the public plays.

great writeup kara

**Johnny Hipster** · 10-25-09, 07:23 AM

Check czech football league = Gambrinus liga´ Today, Sparta Prague plays at Bohemians - Sparta will win on HANDICAP! the price was 2.60 yesterday, and now it´s about 2.45. Bohemians are the worst team of czech league and Sparta is every year a title candidate. My reasoning for this bet is - Sparta drew last time at home with Ceske Budejovice - which was very unfortunate coz Sparta was much better - so I expect that Sparta will try harder and especially after their match in the Europa League - this should be much much weaker opposition and an easy win hopefully - or I will lose my money

GL

**Smogs** · 10-25-09, 08:56 PM

Congrats on the sparta prague win johnny, i have to take a break though, i had 6, yes 6 units on Houston -3 today. it only pushed but at 21-0 up, you know i'm in a bad spot atm. I need this break.

**Karayilan9** · 10-25-09, 09:07 PM

Smogs, today the books swept up again in the EPL, the plays with huge amount of public money on lost again, Arsenal drew to West Ham and Man City couldn't beat Fulham.

Its a good idea to have a break, look at areas you are missing and places you can improve and think positive, when your in a bad run you don't believe in your picks and ability and get scared of picking a looser.

You'll be back stronger, thinking positively and have a clear head, even after two losses in a row I'll leave, go out for a few hours, do something completely unrelated to capping. Its easiest to pick a looser after a bad beat, alot of this stuff is psychological and might sound crazy but I find it really helps.

BOL bro, I know you'll do well

**Smogs** · 10-25-09, 09:14 PM

Cheers Kara, i'm going to keep my record going, keep the thread going....after my break and rebuild what i once had. I will still contribute to the forum but i want to take a break for a month from actual betting. If i can do that i know i have a good management setup.
I have excellent look season long bets in both the NFL and Soccer and i want to see how November treats those bets and then i can go into December looking to pull back the 18 unit deficit

**Johnny Hipster** · 10-26-09, 12:28 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Congrats on the sparta prague win johnny, i have to take a break though, i had 6, yes 6 units on Houston -3 today. it only pushed but at 21-0 up, you know i'm in a bad spot atm. I need this break.

I lost coz I had Sparta on handicap. I go for a bettin break as well smogs...my "accountin book" shows that Im in red numbers

**Smogs** · 10-30-09, 06:24 PM

Ok guys, i am not betting this week as promised, got to be honest, really wanted to slam the Ipswich game but gotta have some management and chill for a bit - here's what i would have played

Ipswich 10/11 3U
Boro -1ah 10/11 2U
Preston 1/1 2U
Bristol C 10/11 2U
Stoke 10/11 1U
Morecambe/Lincoln Draw 13/5 1U
Bournemouth 1/1 1U

**demize21** · 10-31-09, 12:19 AM

BOL this weekend bud

**Smogs** · 10-31-09, 01:26 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Ok guys, i am not betting this week as promised, got to be honest, really wanted to slam the Ipswich game but gotta have some management and chill for a bit - here's what i would have played

Ipswich 10/11 3U
Boro -1ah 10/11 2U
Preston 1/1 2U
Bristol C 10/11 2U
Stoke 10/11 1U
Morecambe/Lincoln Draw 13/5 1U
Bournemouth 1/1 1U

Holy F*k, thank god i gave up, that was bad

**Smogs** · 11-06-09, 04:08 PM

One play this weekend, and this has been narrowed down from a list that had Wigan and Middlesbrough on - both DNB.

Man City -1.5 @ -111 (Pinnacle) 2.2U

I had to think very hard about this, i do not want to be over 20 units down ever but to have a 30 unit swing before christmas would be horrendous. Therefore i am betting just the 2.2U and trying to build on an approach that has seen me pick two straight winners on this method. Those were Bolton to beat Everton and Ipswich to beat Derby. So here goes:

Line Movement - Very little line movement but it favours Man City. Their line going from -270 to -300 @ Pinnacle and the handicap staying steady @ roughly -110.

Injuries - No real injury problems on either side, pending a Toure and Adebayor return for City, Burnley have 3 long term absentees so this does not change their plan either.

Matchup - Burnley have a 2-0-4 record against top 10 opposition, both wins coming at home right at the start of the season. They have scored just 2 goals (in one game) on the road whilst conceding 17. They now face City who have drawn their last 4, scoring just 4 goals in their last 4. The last time City failed to win in 4 games they beat Hull 5-1 last season.
The impact that Adebayor will have will be decisive and should change the game.

Man City have all the matchup advantages and i have to have a play on this line

**pitman** · 11-06-09, 04:38 PM

thnx bud , nice write up

**Smogs** · 11-06-09, 06:45 PM

Originally posted by pitman

thnx bud , nice write up

Hope it brings a win

**demize21** · 11-06-09, 06:47 PM

BOL im with ya on that one

**Smogs** · 11-07-09, 10:34 AM

I'm horrified

**Rediscoveryx** · 11-07-09, 10:38 AM

I also have the -1,5.

**MR.HARRYtheHAT** · 11-07-09, 10:10 PM

TO SMOGS>

VERY GOOD LUCK ON YOUR PICKS THIS WEEK BUDDY [$$$ May the fickle finger of fortune be with you for the dough this week buddy$$]

**Domestic** · 11-07-09, 10:12 PM

Any thoughts on the Chelsea/ManU game tonight?

**Wilforth** · 11-07-09, 11:48 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

I'm horrified

Smogs,

You'll recoup it but you should try to avoid picks that could feature in almost every parlay of that day. The Man City/Burnley draw didn't surprise me, TBH.

Everton are winless in their L5 and I think they'll get a "W" at West Ham. West Ham are without Cole who's their main staple in offense. If Everton get the first goal tomorrow, they'll dictate the game and get the win. Offensively, they have the edge over West Ham.

**Smogs** · 11-08-09, 07:14 AM

Cheers guys, wil, i was looking at this actually, i think a dnb play is the way to go so i'll follow your lead

**Smogs** · 11-08-09, 07:16 AM

Everton dnb - 11/10 - 1 unit

**Wilforth** · 11-08-09, 10:49 AM

Smogs,

Talking about draws in games involving huge home favorites, I correctly predicted this draw:

Germany 2: Duisburg/Ahlen draw +310.

Duisburg was technically today's best home favorite in Germany 2. It's the reason why, as much as I liked Genoa, I wouldn't have played them today (and the score is 3-2 now which means a 3-3 draw is still a possibility). It's the same reason I'll avoid taking Valencia in the Valencia/Zaragoza game. Playing favorites in such games is typically not good from a betting perspective.

**Smogs** · 11-08-09, 11:17 AM

Cheers wil - i think it's important to know which games to completely avoid, sometimes i am betting purely on strong hunches when particular stats suggest a bad bet.

* 1-0 Everton '60 mins gone.

**Wilforth** · 11-08-09, 11:35 AM

Originally posted by Smogs

Everton dnb - 11/10 - 1 unit

Now, this will at least get a push.

**Smogs** · 11-08-09, 11:59 AM

That's for the Everton pick, cheers