Smogs English Football Thread

**TheBeautifulGame** · 08-11-09, 09:03 AM

You really do read my mind Smogs. I don't think Rochdale stand a chance against Wed and I'm willing to put money on that and I have

**Smogs** · 08-11-09, 09:43 AM

That's assuring fella, as i have just played it myself as another 1 Unit bet -

Sheff Wed to beat Rochdale 1 Unit @ -170

**TheBeautifulGame** · 08-11-09, 10:17 AM

Best of luck to both of us then

**SmackdownV** · 08-11-09, 12:52 PM

I'm in on a Unit with you guys!

It's nice to have cappers over the pond on English Football!

**SmackdownV** · 08-11-09, 02:14 PM

Up 2-0.....I LOVE YOUR PICKS SMOGS!

**Smogs** · 08-11-09, 02:53 PM

haha, cheers Smack, however, i'm not gettin too excited cos they threw away a 2 goal lead at the weekend so........they better friggin hold on!! lol

**SmackdownV** · 08-11-09, 02:59 PM

3-0.....breathing room!

GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAALLL LLLLLLLLLLLLLLL!

**kmarinouofm** · 08-11-09, 02:59 PM

lol 3 to 0

**Smogs** · 08-11-09, 03:00 PM

Get in, now i will call it safe

**kmarinouofm** · 08-11-09, 03:02 PM

lol.. gonna quote you on that one smogs...

**Phillth** · 08-11-09, 03:03 PM

thanks for the pick. i parlayed it with Reading.

**SmackdownV** · 08-11-09, 03:07 PM

Smogs.

You are a soccer God to us Americans!

**Phillth** · 08-11-09, 03:13 PM

does anyone know if there will be a premier league capping contest?

**Smogs** · 08-11-09, 03:25 PM

Originally posted by SmackdownV

Smogs.

You are a soccer God to us Americans!

But let's not got carried away, i want a 70% hit rate over my first 50 bets. That is the aim.

Any help in achieving that on this thread is much appreciated.

**Smogs** · 08-11-09, 03:26 PM

Originally posted by Phillth

does anyone know if there will be a premier league capping contest?

I hope so 'cos i'll sign up!

**SmackdownV** · 08-11-09, 03:44 PM

Nice call yet again Smogs!

**Phillth** · 08-11-09, 03:55 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

I hope so 'cos i'll sign up!

who would be the appropriate admin to talk to about starting one?

**Phillth** · 08-11-09, 03:57 PM

one would have made a killing betting all overs in carling matches today

**kmarinouofm** · 08-11-09, 04:13 PM

Originally posted by Phillth

one would have made a killing betting all overs in carling matches today

yeah went something like 24-9 on the overs if all the games were 2.5

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-11-09, 04:51 PM

Nice pick Smogs. I'll be watching you as I try and learn a little something about English foots this season. I'm a number cruncher mostly, so I'm not great at picking early in the season - guys like you help guys like me alot. Kudos!

**Smogs** · 08-11-09, 07:07 PM

Thanks guys, the work for the weekend begins as i try to consolidate the good start i have made. I am already pretty sure i won't be making a single premier league pick, they all look like draws to me!

**Squirrel** · 08-12-09, 02:07 AM

Nice to see the MIGHTY Owls go a little way towards making up for that shambles at the weekend for you. Great start Smoggie

**Smogs** · 08-13-09, 05:20 AM

Initial thoughts for the weekend are -

Bolton/Sun'land - Draw
Pompey/Fulham - Draw
Pompey/Fulham - HT Draw
Derby - DNB
Swansea/M'bro - Under 2.5
Huddersfield
Leeds
Millwall
Dag & Red

I have a lot of picks so far but this is my thought process. I pick too many games, then whittle them down to just a handful of picks, preferably no more than 3 so that 2-1 is a winning weekend.
I now need to assess h2h, form, in the PL's case - first day records, and we will see what i come up with.

Any insight is always appreciated as we try to beat the bookies.

**Smogs** · 08-14-09, 07:09 PM

Ok, after much deliberating i have just the 2 plays this weekend, hopefully they can help pay my plane ticket to Vegas

Millwall to beat Carlisle - 1 Unit @ 8/11

Brentford to Beat Brighton - 1 unit @ 5/4

**Smogs** · 08-15-09, 02:53 AM

Adding a 3rd pick - Chelsea -2 to beat Hull @ -101 for 1 Unit

**Smogs** · 08-15-09, 03:05 PM

Ah well, the realities of betting the UK lower leagues has hit me and cost me big today.

0-3 Today, -3 Units

Record - 4-0-4 - Up 0.7 Units (8.5 Risked)

**Smogs** · 08-15-09, 03:06 PM

The Honeymoon is over, time to start capping games more seriously and sticking to the higher end of competition - PL and Championship

**EaglesPhan36** · 08-15-09, 03:21 PM

It's cool man. I think the hardest thing to do in any sport is win consistently when a season starts. You're pretty much basing it on knowledge of players & preseason numbers which often don't tell you crap. Look at Arsenal today, I know many expected them to win - but would you have predicted 6 goals?

**Squirrel** · 08-16-09, 05:11 AM

Unlucky yesterday smoggie, hope get 'em back (and more) soon

**Smogs** · 08-16-09, 06:29 AM

Cheers for that lads, and i do have a bet that is going to take up 3 units of my bankroll.
I capped this last night and earlier this morning and here it is - Middlesbrough to beat Scunthorpe

1 Unit @ 5/4 and

2 Units on Middlesbrough -0.25 AH

I will give the reasoning because i am jumping from 1 unit picks to all of a sudden going to 3 units.

Firstly, i had this game in mind as a massive betting opportunity as soon as i saw the fixture list, i have Scunthorpe to get relegated this year and the first day of the season at Cardiff confirmed that they are very weak.
They beat Derby at the weekend but that was a 3-2 win, what's significant about that is the fact they have conceded 6 goals in 2 games, 2 of which came against derby, who offensively are very poor and lightweight.
Middlesbrough on the other hand have not conceded a goal yet this season, and limiting opposition to half chances for the most part.
We have erupted onto the goal scoring scene having put 3 away yesterday at Swansea. Swansea are better than Scunny by far and with Tuncay immediately on the score sheet, as well as Emnes who really needed a goal, i honestly think that Scunny will fail to score. The question then is, can we score? Yes we can, against a team that have shipped 6 already. We have the better players all over the pitch and by staying away from home, the Boro players get a break from our shocking home support and relish the 2,000 away fans travelling to Scunny for this game.

Prediction - Scunthorpe 0-2 Middlesbrough

Any thoughts welcome

**Smogs** · 08-16-09, 09:34 AM

Played at Pinnacle where i go 3 units @ +100 for the AH -0.25

**Smogs** · 08-16-09, 05:23 PM

2 Unit bet - Wigan to beat Wolves @ -125.

The reason for this 2 unit bet is what happened on Saturday, Wigan played brilliantly under new management and made Villa look very average. Wolves made West Ham look assured and full of quality when i know that West Ham are going to struggle to break the top 10 this year.
Wolves failed to make an impact and now they go away to Wigan who have another great chance to start the season off well.
This is a massive match for them and they have to win it if they have constant top 10 ambitions

**Wilforth** · 08-17-09, 11:28 AM

Smogs,

What do you think about these for Tuesday?

Championship:
Derby +175
Reading +170

League One:
MK Dons +170

Champions League:
Apoel Nicosia +500

**Johnny Hipster** · 08-17-09, 04:01 PM

Originally posted by Smogs

Cheers for that lads, and i do have a bet that is going to take up 3 units of my bankroll.
I capped this last night and earlier this morning and here it is - Middlesbrough to beat Scunthorpe

1 Unit @ 5/4 and

2 Units on Middlesbrough -0.25 AH

I will give the reasoning because i am jumping from 1 unit picks to all of a sudden going to 3 units.

Firstly, i had this game in mind as a massive betting opportunity as soon as i saw the fixture list, i have Scunthorpe to get relegated this year and the first day of the season at Cardiff confirmed that they are very weak.
They beat Derby at the weekend but that was a 3-2 win, what's significant about that is the fact they have conceded 6 goals in 2 games, 2 of which came against derby, who offensively are very poor and lightweight.
Middlesbrough on the other hand have not conceded a goal yet this season, and limiting opposition to half chances for the most part.
We have erupted onto the goal scoring scene having put 3 away yesterday at Swansea. Swansea are better than Scunny by far and with Tuncay immediately on the score sheet, as well as Emnes who really needed a goal, i honestly think that Scunny will fail to score. The question then is, can we score? Yes we can, against a team that have shipped 6 already. We have the better players all over the pitch and by staying away from home, the Boro players get a break from our shocking home support and relish the 2,000 away fans travelling to Scunny for this game.

Prediction - Scunthorpe 0-2 Middlesbrough

Any thoughts welcome

Hi Smogs - how much do you follow the Championship? This is what I have just read at bbc.co.uk about Scunthorpe - Middlesbrough:

But, whereas Swansea are in transition after the loss of a popular manager and some key players, The Iron are on a high after promotion and their recent win. This could be a tougher assignment for Gareth Southgate's side.

Your thoughts ???

**Smogs** · 08-17-09, 04:12 PM

Originally posted by Wilforth

Smogs,

What do you think about these for Tuesday?

Championship:
Derby +175
Reading +170

League One:
MK Dons +170

Champions League:
Apoel Nicosia +500

No comment on the CL 'cos i just haven't had the time to look into it but i do not like Derby one bit in their matchup with blackpool.
Blackpool are a team who love clean sheets despite being weak overall. I don't expect Derby to even score in that one.

Reading look better value but with swansea already losing twice this season, i will lay off that also. If you like Reading, go DNB to cover the draw. That is where the real value is in that matchup.

No real comment on MK because i don't know how Tranmere have gelled with John Barnes, they got a good win last home game so i'd rather not touch it.

Hope that helps