Brazil Serie A - Barueri vs Sao Paolo - Over 2.5 goals @ -120 (1.80) / Barueri -0
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wow.. fing USA.. i want to pukeComment -
karyilan i hope you lived bet the USA game as a hedge.. i took the over 2.5 and the 3.5 live... thank GOD.. made some money on this game on the game over 2 and the two live betsComment -
1 out of 5 , Im bleeding today.
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so pissed that bet us didn't offer a live over 4.5 i was going to keep playing it till the wheels fell offComment -
Care to explain this closer ? (Win & draw) ?
Barueri -0
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Barueri-0 is basically Barueri pk. he is not playing it on a win or draw.. also known as 1 x 2 odds... which is when you can bet either team to win in regulation or the draw..
He is taking Barueri -0 on the Asian Odds... therefore taking away the possibility of a draw bet.. in Asian odds , its like NFL both teams have a spread..Comment -
Brazil Serie A - Fluminese vs Cruzerio - Cruzerio -0 @ +100 (2)
Brazil Serie A - Vitoria vs Coritiba - Vitoria Win @ -130 (1.7)Comment -
Lady luck deserted me today, Santos game was 0-0 until 75th minute! Mexico penalty wasn't a penalty, Cruzeiro hit about every post, had countless one on ones and even missed open goals but at least that was a push. Barueri missed ridiculous chances....
3-6 today, 8-6-2 for the weekend, it was a poor weekend but at least a profit was made during this rough patch.
Also, as I explained on page 1. In soccer I highly recommend you hedge, if you bet the Under2.5 goals at the start of the game and it is 0-0 hedge it at half time, if you bet the Over2.5 goals at the start of the game and there are 2 goals hedge it at half time. The hedge will only take a tiny cut of your profits but long term will stop the very unlikely losses like what happened today with the Under. Long term you save yourself alot! I've saved $1000's doing this and it makes games alot less stressfull, refer to page 1 for an in-depth explanation of this.
Current Record: W 126. P 11. L 76Comment -
When I have cleared the bonus on the bookie i play on right now I will surely take my money and leave. They has to have the worst live betting I have ever seen, and a few of Karayilan's picks today wasn't even up for live play! Anyways, I took a gamble and ploughed some money into Vitoria ML, and bounced back a bit. So now I can at least afford a rope if I feel like hanging myself.
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spoken like a true gangster... keep it up homie.. you can't go 8-2 or 7-3 every weekend.. but at least you were smart enough to get it back with live betting.. I usually don't have this luxury and most of us in the USA don't either.. however i was able to do this today in America game..Comment -
Do you get to bet in-game in the US books on soccer lines Kmarinouofm? if you could find a book that does it will be a big advantage.Comment -
Naturally I didn't play yesterday, played today, and went heavy on the US. LOL! Keep doing what you're doing, Karaylian!Comment -
Some key tips that will save you thousands long term.
1. Make sure you can bet in-game
2. Make sure you watch the games
3. If you bet Under 2.5 goals, if the score is 0-0 at half time, generally the odds will have dropped so low that it can be hedged for only a tiny fraction of your profit. If you very strongly about the Under at half time still judge the game wisely, for example if a key defender is sent off and the team is under serious pressure, avert the disaster, the odds to hedge by now are so low it will hardly make any impact to the profit. If you see tactical switches and changes that you didn't factor when you were capping the game, be smart and hedge. You can make a small profit on the other side aswel doing this just in-case of worst case scenario.
4. If you bet Over 2.5 goals, if 2 goals are scored by half time, judge the game and if you want to play it safe hedge it as the odds will have dropped so low it won't have an impact on the profit. A game that is 2-0 at half time is very likely to go Over but observe tactical switches, changes and substitutes at half time, if you don't like the way the game looks to be heading hedge, it will be a small dent in the profit but worth it compared to a big loss.
5. If you bet a team ML and your team is winning by 2 goals hedge it, last thing you want is to loose a wager in which the team was up 2-0 and ends up drawing or loosing. A team that goes 2-0 up will have such low odds that the hedge will hardly be felt on the profit.
Ofcourse there is no way out if you bet an Under2.5 and 2 goals have been scored at half time, or if your team is loosing 3-0 in the 30th minute but using what I described above can save thousands upon thousands long-term especially if you are wagering with high stakes. Even if these unlikely events happen lets say 10-20 times in a year, say these were relatively big plays and you put $1000-2000 a game, the hedge will only cost max $60-80 a game but would save, $10-40KComment -
Thanks Karayilan for your advice above , excellent information as always from you.
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Sweedish league: Halmstad vs Malmo - Under 2.5 goals LOSS (Push with the hedge) -120 (1.8) / Malmo -0 +100 (2) WIN
Malmo is one of the biggest sides in Sweeden but hasn't won in 7 games, the team has had trouble finishing, they had many chances last game but couldn't manage a win. Now they are facing the same team but on the road, every Malmo away game has gone Under, the two teams forms are similar, Halmstad drew 5 of their last 5 games, Malmo drew 4 and lost 1. Malmo want a win here but Halmstad have a pretty solid defense, only letting in 2 goals in the last 5 games while only scoring 2 aswel. I don't think Malmo will loose this game but they may have difficulties scoring.Comment -
Until I can raise A little more funds I'm stuck with the Greek. They've got the total at (2)+117 & a draw option (Which they don't offer often) at +225. I took both & Malmo (pk)-110. AS SOON AS I CAN I'M SWITCHING BOOKS!! The Greek does'nt offer Live betting on Soccer either. Anyway, Lets break a leg!!!!
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Hedging these Under2.5 goals has saved me bucket loads this week, yesterday the Under2.5 in Santos crashed and burned in the last 10 minutes, today it was even worse! Malmo was winning 1-0 until the 88th minute until they decided to score 2 goals in 2 minutes, it was ridiculous!
This is why I say its important to hedge when the Under is in your favor, I got a push and win due to hedging, it was the difference between making a profit and breaking even.Comment -
I'm about to enroll in the class! I didn't realize that this soccer thread has it going on over here!If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!Comment -
Cool man, now we need to get CK down there as well...If it seems to good to be true it usually is!!
I have a natural instinct to exploit market ineffieciencies!!Comment -
First leg games of Champions League teams of relatively equal strenghts usually end in a an Under2.5 goals, the potential money on the line causes teams to play a cautious, tight game and not give any cheap goals away. If a team scores they are likely to play defensive and defend that precious goal.
CL Qualifiers: Sparta Prague vs Panathanaikos - Under 2.5 goals -130 (1.7) / Panathanaikos -0 -125 (1.75)
Under 2.5 goals (possibly -0 Panathanaikos), the Czechs have a solid defense but trouble on the offensive side, Panathanaikos traditionaly don't do well on the road in Europe and will be happy to settle for a draw or snatch a sneaky win and finish the tie off at home.
CL Qualifiers: FK Baku vs Levski Sofia - Under 2.5 goals -120 (1.8) / FK Baku -0 +125
The oil and energy rich country of Azerbaycan has been investing heavily in soccer the last few years, the seeds they planted are starting to grow and the fastest growing of these teams is FK Baku. They have quite a good squad, a few Brazilians, other south americans and local boys, last few games they have been impressive. Levski are in turmoil, they just sacked their manager and there is discontent in the team. I think Levski will get a shock today, it won't be what there expecting, soccer is growing fast in the Azerbaycan and they have alot of ties with experienced coaches and staff from Turkey as they both speak the same language and have alot of ties. The Baku stadium will be rocking tonight, the ticket prices have been slashed and the biggest ultra groups are being bought in. I think they could surprise Sofia but its likely to go Under2.5 goals aswell as these teams don't have a huge quality difference. The last Baku home games were 0-0 until the 60-70th minute then when the opposition let in a goal they crumbled. Levski is a more experienced and quality squad than Baku's last opponents, they shouldn't collapse if they let in a goal. This game won't be a push over for Levski like alot of people think in my opinion, we could have a surprise here.
CL Qualifiers: FK Aktobe vs Maccabi Haifa - Under 2.5 goals -120 (1.8)
Aktobe, an up and comming Kazak team, they are another team growing in power, they have had a great home record in their domestic league and qualifiers, they are yet to loose at home and all these games have gone Under 2.5 goals and they only conceded 1 goal. Maccabi Haifa are not good travellers and this will be a trip half way across asia to play in the scorching heat in a place most the players would never have heard of before. Haifa have the experience and a better squad but will want to close this game out with a draw or sneak a win and finish the tie off at home were they will be much more comfortable.
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Thx Karayilan, Il tail you on the FK Baku -0. My bookie doesn't offer any live play on any of your picks. Do you have any of the unders you feel stronger for or should I just leave the unders alone all together ?Comment -
I like the Under in all these games but if I had to choose one it would be Panathanaikos Under.Comment -
Tailing on everything except the Panathanaikos under, since my book changed it to under 2 while I was placing the wager (which would have made me feel pretty good about it had I gotten it!). BOL!Comment -
FK Baku game 0-0 at half time, been a pretty uneventful game, just what we wanted to see, Levski Sofya has been the better side but Baku had a few dangerous breaks.
The Under can now be hedged, for example
Back Under2.5 @ $1000 X -120 (1.8) = $800
Lay Under2.5 @ $1000 X -1000 (1.1) = $100
Total profit = $700
Total possible loss = $0
If you want you can wait till the Under drops further and then hedge it, 10 mins into the 2nd half if there is no goal the hedge will cost around $50-60.Comment -
The Friigin Greek had both the Baku & the Aktobe unders at (2). I took'em both. Lets Break a leg!!! Wow! the Panath. under just dropped to (2) as well!!!
I'm taking it anyway!! Oh, & LETS BREAK A LEG!!!!!!
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Let's break a leg
Baku game, went Under and they drew for the push.
The Aktobe game is 0-0 at half time, were able to hedge it again if you wanna play it safe.Comment -
i laid off the under because it dropped to 2 at my bookComment -
Prague scores in the 26' and the 35'. Not looking good.Comment -
For the record, Panathinaikos lost 3-1. They played terribly. I saw the game. Hope you guys did well in the other matches.
They have a chance to make it up in Athens next week. If they get their sh*t together they can pull it off.
As of today I'm officially on vacation so I don't have much access to the internet.
BOL!Comment -
Baku and Aktobe matches went Under2.5 but Panathanaikos players went AWOL today, more Champions League qualifiers tomorrow.Comment
